the case against Stills

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the case against Stills

Post by mercury22nathan on Tue Feb 14, 2017 9:14 am

ESPN's Barnwell makes the case against re-signing Stills...

http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/page/Barnwell5Moves2017AFCE/bill-barnwell-five-moves-afc-east-team-make-2017-nfl-offseason

Allow WR Kenny Stills to leave. If the Dolphins re-sign Landry (or at least intend to do so), there's not much of a case for locking up Stills. The deep threat would be Miami's third wideout behind Landry and 2015 first-rounder DeVante Parker, and while the Dolphins spent 690 offensive snaps in three-wideout looks this season, Mike Tannenbaum would be committing a staggering sum of money to wide receivers given what Stills is likely to make on the free market.

The reality is also that Stills is still more of a prospect than anything else. His numbers this season were buoyed by an unsustainable touchdown rate. Through the first three years of his career, Stills caught 11 touchdowns on 122 receptions, or one every 11.1 receptions. Last year, Stills had nine TDs on 42 catches, or one every 4.7 receptions. Wideouts with that sort of touchdown rate almost always regress to the mean, especially in the modern game. Since 1990, receivers who caught 30 or more passes and scored once every five receptions or less averaged a touchdown once every 11.7 receptions the following season. Stills has averaged 41 catches per season, so at that rate, he's in line for three to four touchdowns next year. Torrey Smith's 2014-2015 seasons loom as a plausible comp and a warning sign to teams thinking about giving Stills $8 million or so per year.

the overall read has some fairly interesting tidbits for all of the AFC East teams.  based on market value (Tavon Austin and TY Hilton), Barnwell believes Landry will fall somewhere in the $12M to $13M per year range for his extension.  i can't see the Phins giving Stills $8M per on top of that.  i'm also concerned that Stills will not continue to progress once getting a fat deal.  i'd like to keep Stills as a piece of the WR corp, but i am not too sure about overpaying for him.

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Re: the case against Stills

Post by Birdmond on Tue Feb 14, 2017 9:31 am

Personally I'd rather Stills walk and put that money into the OL and DL.

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Re: the case against Stills

Post by white1 on Tue Feb 14, 2017 1:17 pm

Excellent insight and analysis, this article brought a true argument to the table in favor of letting Stills walk. I could still argue that assuming Parker will exceed Stills talent is by no means a lock, especially given Parker injury history, but the statistics they bring are hard to argue against.

I agree with the other proposed moves as well, in letting Mitchell, Williams and Misi go. I'm on the fence with Branch, they recommend keeping him but it would be hard to argue which decision is ultimately made because both approaches have merit. It's a limited DE free agent class, and having a huge hole there going into the draft would handcuff us.

I agree that the Bills would be well served to keep Zach Brown if possible, but he looks like an excellent free agent target for us if they fail and he does hit the market.

If Bennett does shake free from New England, he is easily our #1 free agent target.

I'm interested to see what happens with Garropolo, primarily because it's an indicator of how much longer Brady plans to keep playing.

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Re: the case against Stills

Post by white1 on Tue Feb 14, 2017 1:20 pm

One final point: Both the Bills and Jets look like a total disaster, and neither one of them has a legit starting QB. If somebody is going to take down the Pats, it's going to be us. With a lot of luck on our side.

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Re: the case against Stills

Post by JMP on Tue Feb 14, 2017 2:25 pm

Some thoughts...

I definitely don't want to overpay Stills, but if he walks the Miami WR group suddenly looks very ordinary. Landry is great at what he does, but he doesn't score much. Parker is wildly inconsistent and always misses time. Carroo is a complete unknown with a limited skillset. And that's about it. We'll need to add a player or two to the mix if Stills leaves.

As for Zach Brown, can he play in a 4-3? Not sure, but I don't want the team to spend millions of dollars to find out.

I agree that the Jets are a mess, but the Bills? I think they have a ton of talent and if they get even mediocre QB play they will win some games. They're not a bad team at all - just need some leadership and a QB. Nobody is taking down the Pats in 2017...the Dolphins just need to worry about getting better.

I think the Pats will keep Jimmy G and continue to groom him as the future starter. Seems foolish for them to trade away the one backup QB they've had that actually has tons of potential. I also think they'll keep Bennett. He won't break the bank and they have tons of cap space.

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Re: the case against Stills

Post by rightchea on Tue Feb 14, 2017 2:51 pm

birdmond wrote:Personally I'd rather Stills walk and put that money into the OL and DL.

I would have to agree with that. Miami needs to find at least an OG, C and an OT for Miami OL to be good. The thing for me is Still produced and Parker is too easy to injure.

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Re: the case against Stills

Post by mercury22nathan on Thu Feb 16, 2017 3:11 pm

white1 wrote:If Bennett does shake free from New England, he is easily our #1 free agent target.

apparently not.

And Bennett will never play for the Dolphins as long as the current administration is running the organization.

It will not happen.

Trust me.

It’s not even a remote possibility and you’ll simply have to accept what I’m saying. (Or don’t). Doesn’t matter. Bennett isn’t an option.

http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/armando-salguero/article133062634.html

i guess this is because during Gase's time as the OC in Chicago...

Bennett's relationship with his teammates, coaches, and general manager deteriorated through the 2015 season. Bennett voiced displeasure about his tenure with the Bears. He openly criticized Jay Cutler's on-field play in an interview with ESPN The Magazine , claiming "I’d be open and he’d throw into double coverage". He later derided his ex-teammates' morale and work ethic by calling them "a bunch of bitches" in an interview with E:60.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martellus_Bennett


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Re: the case against Stills

Post by Birdmond on Thu Feb 16, 2017 4:10 pm

Yeah Bennet is not a Gase guy.

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Re: the case against Stills

Post by JMP on Thu Feb 16, 2017 5:40 pm

Bennett is staying in New England IMO - no reason for him to leave, and the Pats have the cap space.

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Re: the case against Stills

Post by rightchea on Thu Feb 16, 2017 10:05 pm

I agree. the only way that he is leaving is if the Pats draft another younger TE. Hopefully Miami can bait them to give up a pick to move up for a TE in the draft.

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Re: the case against Stills

Post by JMP on Thu Feb 16, 2017 10:29 pm

rightchea wrote:I agree. the only way that he is leaving is if the Pats draft another younger TE. Hopefully Miami can bait them to give up a pick to move up for a TE in the draft.

I don't think the Pats give a damn what the Dolphins do. They have a plan and they stick to it...they don't panic when other teams make moves.

One thing to consider...if the Pats do re-sign Bennett and draft a TE - would they trade the always-injured and very expensive Gronk??? That would be very interesting...

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Re: the case against Stills

Post by Birdmond on Fri Feb 17, 2017 5:06 am

Bennett is a known punk. Don't be surprised if the Pats don't dump him anyway. Also if the Pats trade Garapolo they could have two first round picks.

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Re: the case against Stills

Post by JMP on Fri Feb 17, 2017 8:31 am

The Pats are grooming Jimmy G for the future. He's going to be a damn good QB IMO, and I don't see them trading him at all.

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Re: the case against Stills

Post by rightchea on Fri Feb 17, 2017 10:02 am

Pats just signed Brady to a 3 year extension. If I was Jimmy G I would stay one more year then leave ask for a trade.

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Re: the case against Stills

Post by JMP on Fri Feb 17, 2017 11:13 am

rightchea wrote:Pats just signed Brady to a 3 year extension. If I was Jimmy G I would stay one more year then leave ask for a trade.

I think the Pats were just freeing up more cap space. They already had a ton of space, but now it'll be easier for them to keep guys like Bennett, Hightower, Ryan, Branch and Blount if they want to.

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Re: the case against Stills

Post by rightchea on Tue Feb 21, 2017 9:39 am

Well with the Thomas trade and the lack of Picks Miami will have to push to keep Stills. It sounds like Miami is going to once again build around the FA instead of the draft.

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Re: the case against Stills

Post by JMP on Tue Feb 21, 2017 9:43 am

rightchea wrote:Well with the Thomas trade and the lack of Picks Miami will have to push to keep Stills. It sounds like Miami is going to once again build around the FA instead of the draft.

Yeah, I think it's safe to say that Stills will be on a different team this season.

I expect more trading of draft picks and a ton of $ spent on FAs. This team just doesn't understand how to build a winner.

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Re: the case against Stills

Post by scotgif on Tue Feb 21, 2017 10:15 am

Hopefully, we can get a couple decent (3rd/4th) round compensation picks for losing OV and Lamar. Knowing how the league just LOVES us, we will probably get 2 6th's, or some BS like that. Now if it was the cheatriots, we know ho that would go down.
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Re: the case against Stills

Post by JMP on Tue Feb 21, 2017 10:22 am

scotgif wrote:Hopefully, we can get a couple decent (3rd/4th) round compensation picks for losing OV and Lamar. Knowing how the league just LOVES us, we will probably get 2 6th's, or some BS like that. Now if it was the cheatriots, we know ho that would go down.

I'm hearing we'll get a 3rd and a 5th, which is really like a 4th and a 6th because compensation picks are at the very end of the round. Compensation picks are tradeable now, so expect Tannenbaum to give them away anyway.

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Re: the case against Stills

Post by rightchea on Tue Feb 21, 2017 2:28 pm

they are trying to be like the Patriots, they are really good in the draft but their vets are always descent enough to win games. Miami doesn't have that type of QB or team for that matter. So someone needs to come up with a new plan of action to make Miami into a winning team. I thought Gase being young would understand that.

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Re: the case against Stills

Post by HalCHorn on Tue Feb 21, 2017 11:27 pm

If we get two compensatory picks, and then trade down from 22 (which looks more likely to me now) we're back at seven.

Now, do I trust Tannenbaum to do this? Well........

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Re: the case against Stills

Post by Birdmond on Wed Feb 22, 2017 7:06 am

rightchea wrote:they are trying to be like the Patriots, they are really good in the draft but their vets are always descent enough to win games. Miami doesn't have that type of QB or team for that matter. So someone needs to come up with a new plan of action to make Miami into a winning team. I thought Gase being young would understand that.

Until proven otherwise, under Gase, this is a winning team.

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Re: the case against Stills

Post by Birdmond on Wed Feb 22, 2017 7:09 am

HalCHorn wrote:If we get two compensatory picks, and then trade down from 22 (which looks more likely to me now) we're back at seven.

Now, do I trust Tannenbaum to do this? Well........

I guess it depends on who is available but I'm not really keen on trading down unless Miami fills some critical needs via FA.

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Re: the case against Stills

Post by JMP on Wed Feb 22, 2017 8:37 am

Birdmond wrote:
Until proven otherwise, under Gase, this is a winning team.  

Well, it's winning team that can't beat any other winning teams. We're not even close to being championship-caliber, IMO. That 10-6 record was more paper tiger than king of the jungle. Don't get me wrong - 10 wins is great and it's more than I could have hoped for. But we've still got a long way to go to get to that next level.

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Re: the case against Stills

Post by rightchea on Wed Feb 22, 2017 4:24 pm

To be honest I was surprised that Miami got 10 wins and probably would have gotten more if Tannehill was fully healthy. The issue is that Tannehill isn't going to be 100% next year or the year before that and I feel like that is a way to get rid of him. So this 10-6 season isn't going to happen next year.

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