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Dolphins release, free agency and trades news

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Post by white1 Tue Feb 21, 2017 11:24 am

Or, it could mean that instead of drafting one of the top TE's coming out, we are gong to look to fill a bigger need area, defense.

Oh I totally see that. In fact, I would expect we'll take a similar approach to last offseason. We won't go into the draft with a gaping hole at one of our starting positions, just screaming HEY EVERYONE BTW WE DONT HAVE A STARTING LG ON THE ROSTER WHO DO YOU THINK WE'LL PICK NEXT LULZ !!! Ala the infamous Vernon Carey trade-up under WannSpiel.

So I fully expected a seam threat in FA, and this move - if nothing else - goes to that need. We still need Sims for blocking, that's for sure, and I may be in the minority but I don't believe he'll command a cap-busting salary.

Also, this does nothing to impact our need to keep Stills, assuming the salary is reasonable and we've seen some estimates suggesting it will be.

We have the cap space, and we've been smart on contracts where we can use roster bonuses and other various "outs" years down the road. Meaning much of the advertised money won't be real anyways.

Sign Sims, Landry, Stills, and maybe Branch, I'll be happy. Also extend Reshad Jones. I don't care who we get from other teams, but hopefully they are starting guards.
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Post by JMP Tue Feb 21, 2017 12:05 pm

white1 wrote:

Also, this does nothing to impact our need to keep Stills, assuming the salary is reasonable and we've seen some estimates suggesting it will be.  

Thomas may actually have a huge impact on whether or not we keep Stills. If the Phins view Thomas as the third receiving option behind Landry and Parker, they're not going to offer Stills $8 million a year or whatever he's likely to get. As for Sims, in a fairly weak free agent class he may end up getting much more $ than he's worth...as I said, sportrac forecasts $5 million a year for him, and IMO there's no way the Phins are doing that.

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Post by white1 Tue Feb 21, 2017 12:51 pm

Thomas may actually have a huge impact on whether or not we keep Stills. If the Phins view Thomas as the third receiving option behind Landry and Parker, they're not going to offer Stills $8 million a year or whatever he's likely to get. As for Sims, in a fairly weak free agent class he may end up getting much more $ than he's worth...as I said, sportrac forecasts $5 million a year for him, and IMO there's no way the Phins are doing that.

Interesting. We'll have to see how this plays out.

Totally understand your point and it could happen. However, I think it's a mistake if the team believes Thomas can provide what Stills gives this offense. Stills YPC is worlds better than any season Thomas had, even with Peyton Manning and Gase while in Denver. He is not near the deep threat, and does not have Stills world class speed. Not even in the same class.
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Post by JMP Tue Feb 21, 2017 1:40 pm

white1 wrote:
Thomas may actually have a huge impact on whether or not we keep Stills. If the Phins view Thomas as the third receiving option behind Landry and Parker, they're not going to offer Stills $8 million a year or whatever he's likely to get. As for Sims, in a fairly weak free agent class he may end up getting much more $ than he's worth...as I said, sportrac forecasts $5 million a year for him, and IMO there's no way the Phins are doing that.

Interesting.  We'll have to see how this plays out.

Totally understand your point and it could happen.  However, I think it's a mistake if the team believes Thomas can provide what Stills gives this offense.  Stills YPC is worlds better than any season Thomas had, even with Peyton Manning and Gase while in Denver.  He is not near the deep threat, and does not have Stills world class speed.  Not even in the same class.  

It wouldn't be replacing Stills as a deep threat, but it could mean replacing a huge percentage of Stills' targets. In other words, if the Phins forecast Stills as #4 on the team in targets in 2017, they will likely not want to give him a huge contract. Parker would then have to step up as a deep threat.


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Post by rightchea Tue Feb 21, 2017 2:25 pm

My problem is the part where they will only have 4 picks after this trade. Miami has too many holes to fill and to have only 4 picks is ridiculous

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Post by JMP Tue Feb 21, 2017 2:43 pm

rightchea wrote:My problem is the part where they will only have 4 picks after this trade. Miami has too many holes to fill and to have only 4 picks is ridiculous

That's what Tannenbaum does. He trades picks as if they're worthless. It's really hard to build a long-term winner when you don't care about the draft.

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Post by white1 Tue Feb 21, 2017 2:54 pm

It wouldn't be replacing Stills as a deep threat, but it could mean replacing a huge percentage of Stills' targets. In other words, if the Phins forecast Stills as #4 on the team in targets in 2017, they will likely not want to give him a huge contract.

Totally understand the logic, and it is my fear that this will come to pass as you have described it.

So, what did we do, in effect - if this does actually happen? We've decided to dump Stills, who performed extremely well in the offense we run, with the quarterback we have, under the coaching staff we have. We then decided, you know what? Better to have a seam threat tight end that Gase worked with two years ago with a different QB, and under a different staff, with a slightly different system customized to the players in Denver. Then, we project that most of Stills targets can go to Thomas, and the offense will be better off.

If you've been reading this far, I'm hoping you can see all the problems with this logic. Projections made on past history, versus the very well known quantity and an effective player like Stills has become. More often than not, a calculated move made in this manner does not yield positive results. Most likely, the offense suffers, Thomas disappoints, and next year we're left pining for the deep threat component Stills delivered so well.
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Post by JMP Tue Feb 21, 2017 3:41 pm

white1 wrote:
It wouldn't be replacing Stills as a deep threat, but it could mean replacing a huge percentage of Stills' targets. In other words, if the Phins forecast Stills as #4 on the team in targets in 2017, they will likely not want to give him a huge contract.

Totally understand the logic, and it is my fear that this will come to pass as you have described it.

So, what did we do, in effect - if this does actually happen? We've decided to dump Stills, who performed extremely well in the offense we run, with the quarterback we have, under the coaching staff we have.  We then decided, you know what? Better to have a seam threat tight end that Gase worked with two years ago with a different QB, and under a different staff, with a slightly different system customized to the players in Denver.  Then, we project that most of Stills targets can go to Thomas, and the offense will be better off.

If you've been reading this far, I'm hoping you can see all the problems with this logic.  Projections made on past history, versus the very well known quantity and an effective player like Stills has become.  More often than not, a calculated move made in this manner does not yield positive results.  Most likely, the offense suffers, Thomas disappoints, and next year we're left pining for the deep threat component Stills delivered so well.

Exactly. It's definitely a concern. Of course, it could turn out that Thomas has an excellent season and totally transforms the offense and we don't even miss Stills...but looking at recent history, I'd put the odds at "very slim" that Thomas gets back to his 12-TDs-a-season Denver form. We do need a legit backup plan at TE regardless, because Thomas has never played a 16-game season.

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Post by Degarmo Tue Feb 21, 2017 4:40 pm

JMP wrote:
rightchea wrote:My problem is the part where they will only have 4 picks after this trade. Miami has too many holes to fill and to have only 4 picks is ridiculous

That's what Tannenbaum does.  He trades picks as if they're worthless.  It's really hard to build a long-term winner when you don't care about the draft.

With the salary cap, it's not possible.

I hate trading away picks when you're light on them already. Granted, it's a 7th, but we're short on everything.

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Post by mercury22nathan Wed Feb 22, 2017 8:59 am

Armando had previously reported that Thomas took a "significant" pay cut to come to the Phins. well, he now reports...

Thomas, who signed a $46 million deal for five years with Jacksonville in 2015, agreed to take a pay cut to come to Miami. The actual numbers are not yet known because the trade has not been made, but it is believed Thomas, who was scheduled to cost Jacksonville $8.3 million against the cap in 2017, will now cost the Dolphins around $7 million against the cap.

http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/armando-salguero/article134197644.html

from $8.3M to $7.0M - a pay cut, yes, but for a guy who had not completed a full 16 game season, is coming off an injury and has not put up the same numbers since leaving Denver...i'm not so sure how "significant" that $1.3M really is (especially considering he can make it back in incentives). i was thinking more like down to $3M or $4M per.

so in a nutshell, the Phins have swapped in one often injured TE for another at about the same salary cap hit. Jordan Cameron's 2016 cap hit was $8M

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/miami-dolphins/jordan-cameron-7821/

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Post by JMP Wed Feb 22, 2017 10:37 am

Damn, $7 million?? Yep, Sims is gone.

I just don't understand why this team never learns...just keep throwing $ at free agents with injury histories and downward-trending career paths. No

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Post by white1 Wed Feb 22, 2017 1:15 pm

I'm at a loss. Where is this mysterious "value" coming from around Thomas? He looks like a total free agent bust, but the compensation - and now salary - indicate otherwise. Everything points towards us getting some coveted prize instead of an obvious salary-dumping move by Jacksonville.

I'd agree that Sims is gone except he's so much better at blocking, I cannot see that working out. Plus, we'll only have Gray as a backup when Thomas is injured. Because that's happened very season he has played so far.

I don't like this move. Not one bit. He's going to have to do a lot to convince me I'm wrong on this.
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Post by JMP Wed Feb 22, 2017 2:15 pm

white1 wrote:I'm at a loss.  Where is this mysterious "value" coming from around Thomas? He looks like a total free agent bust, but the compensation - and now salary - indicate otherwise.  Everything points towards us getting some coveted prize instead of an obvious salary-dumping move by Jacksonville.

I'd agree that Sims is gone except he's so much better at blocking, I cannot see that working out.  Plus, we'll only have Gray as a backup when Thomas is injured.  Because that's happened very season he has played so far.

I don't like this move.  Not one bit.  He's going to have to do a lot to convince me I'm wrong on this.

It's just like merc said - we're dumping one oft-injured overpaid bust for another oft-injured overpaid bust.  I don't get it.

And yeah, we literally have no blocking TE - at all - without Sims.  Thomas is your seam threat/extra WR and Gray is your H-back...but neither one has any blocking ability whatsoever.  If Sims walks - and if I were him, I'd run - then we need to replace his skillset.  I'd love to add Luke Willson or even Jermaine Gresham to fill that blocker/occasional pass catcher role, but their pricetags will be too high given that we have so much $ invested in Thomas.  Maybe a real cheap vet like John Phillips or Logan Paulsen that isn't really going to give you anything more than blocking?

BTW, I think you'll see guys like Willson and Sims do pretty good in free agency, because both can catch AND block - which is a pretty rare combo for modern TEs.


Last edited by JMP on Wed Feb 22, 2017 2:58 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by rightchea Wed Feb 22, 2017 2:57 pm

To be honest Miami seem to developing into a spread format. With the lack of blockers they might try to keep Tannehill in the shotgun or Pistol

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Post by JMP Wed Feb 22, 2017 3:04 pm

rightchea wrote:To be honest Miami seem to developing into a spread format. With the lack of blockers they might try to keep Tannehill in the shotgun or Pistol

I don't think the formations are going to change much.  Most of the time it's just a 3-WR set with a single back and a TE.  Assuming we lose Stills, I think the biggest change in 2017 is that Thomas will often line up as one of the three WRs (when he doesn't have a hangnail and is able to actually play).  But yeah, we'll continue to see a lot of shotgun snaps regardless.

Regardless, without a blocking TE, it's going to be that much harder to run the ball. I think Gase really wants a pass-first offense anyway, but we're still going to need to run. Hell, we had enough trouble running the ball in most games last season, even with Sims: we gained less than 100 rushing yards in 11 of 17 games.

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Post by scotgif Wed Feb 22, 2017 3:43 pm

I like Sims, but I do not see all the worry in him leaving. Besides the blocking, that is. Where would he get this inflated value of his worth from? From his All-Pro type numbers he has put up? I am not bashing him. I like him. I like the fact that he has improved every year. But, let's not make it seem like we are going to lose gronk. Also, why would he not want to stay and be the 2nd TE? Still would get lots of PT. And, what demand is he going to have on the open market?
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Post by rightchea Wed Feb 22, 2017 3:54 pm

Sims was good here and there in the passing game but at the same time he wasn't impressive enough to keep.

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Post by white1 Wed Feb 22, 2017 3:58 pm

Just heard an interview with Omar on "The Big O Show".

A couple of tidbits:

- They are in violent agreement with us on this point: We need to retain Sims. Thomas is not a blocking TE at all, he is a seam threat and red zone target specialist.
- Jacksonville did not use him properly. They threw a lot of short (like 3 yard) routes expecting him to gain YAC. Thomas has excellent hands, but has never been a real YAC threat. Even his Denver numbers are somewhat pedestrian when it comes to YPC.
- Blake Bortles QB play, and the offense in general, was horrible. Totally believable. For those that play fantasy football, Bortles value all comes in the garbage time yards and TDs that come when the game is already way out of reach.
- You may think these points excuse Thomas. They do not. The general feeling I got is that Omar has a lot of questions on Thomas. Namely:
- Watching game tape from the past two years his tape was not good. It wasn't bad. The word used was horrendous. HORRENDOUS. Biggest red flag? "He looked slow".
- His injury history has been well documented. HAS NEVER PLAYED A FULL SEASON. Last year, hurt ankle, elbow, fractured tailbone then I think he went to IR with a back injury.
- He's 29 and quickly approaching 30.
- The rumored "paycut" may not be much of a cut at all. If the $7 million per season figure holds, god damn that's a lot and money I would have much preferred go to some portion of Stills and Sims instead.

In short, nothing I heard was encouraging. They are waiting for the contract details before giving a firm thumbs up / thumbs down on the trade.

I'm already giving it a thumbs down. The only possible factor working in the team's favor is that Gase knows the player and the person. That takes the guess work out of much of the equation. Still, really a lot of bad factors to overcome with this move. I'm not at all convinced it will work out well for us.
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Post by white1 Wed Feb 22, 2017 4:03 pm

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Post by DolFan 316 Wed Feb 22, 2017 4:41 pm

(Checks in, sees that Tannenbuam is still Tannenbauming, leaves.)

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Post by JMP Wed Feb 22, 2017 9:10 pm

DolFan 316 wrote:(Checks in, sees that Tannenbuam is still Tannenbauming, leaves.)

LOL The more things change...

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Post by mercury22nathan Thu Feb 23, 2017 8:38 am

here's ESPN's take...

The Miami Dolphins made their first significant move to improve their offense this year with the acquisition of starting tight end Julius Thomas. Two years ago he went to the Jacksonville Jaguars as a prized free agent but was a bust.

Thomas was likely headed for a release, but Miami was able to acquire him for a seventh-round pick.

Here is a scouting report from ESPN Jaguars reporter Mike DiRocco:

"Thomas’ struggles were partly due to erratic quarterback play by Blake Bortles, but also because he couldn’t stay healthy. He missed a total of 11 games in two seasons, including the first four games in 2015 because of a fractured bone in his hand and it took a while for him to get involved in the offense when he did return. ... The Jaguars didn’t use Thomas correctly, either. They had him catching quick out passes and turning up field to gain additional yardage, especially on third down. That’s not his game. He’s not a guy who evades tacklers or runs through them. He’s better used downfield, especially on seam passes, or lined out outside in the red zone to get a mismatch with a linebacker. The Jaguars asked him to be a blocker, which isn’t his strength, either. There also was some feeling around the organization that Thomas wasn’t as motivated as he should have been after signing his big contract. Things might have changed in 2017 with new offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett but Thomas is going back to play for Adam Gase, under whom he had great success, so it wouldn’t be a surprise if he had much better numbers this season."

So what are realistic expectations for Thomas in his first season with the Dolphins?

As DiRocco mentioned, not all of Thomas' lack of production can be blamed on the tight end. The Jaguars were a mess on offense, especially last year, when Bortles struggled with his mechanics and consistency. Thomas will be playing in a more tight-end friendly system and with a quarterback in Ryan Tannehill who throws well between the seams and appears to be trending in the right direction.

Thomas thrived in Gase's system when both were with the Denver Broncos. The biggest thing that stands out is Thomas was a dynamic red-zone threat and scored 24 touchdowns during a two-year stretch under Gase. That should be an area where Thomas helps immediately.

http://www.espn.com/blog/miami-dolphins/post/_/id/24655/new-te-julius-thomas-should-help-dolphins-immediately-in-red-zone

so in a nutshell, they believe Thomas' lack of production was the fault of Bortles and the Jags using him incorrectly - and that Gase will restore him to "a dynamic red-zone threat." of course this all assumes he can stay healthy and is motivated.

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Post by white1 Thu Feb 23, 2017 8:41 am

Fair assessment.

If he catches 8 TDs I'll be happy.

I still think we need to retain Sims. Or sign another TE like the kid from Seattle.

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Post by JMP Thu Feb 23, 2017 8:58 am

Basically, the ESPN piece tells us that Thomas is a one-dimensional TE that is always hurt, whose best years are behind him. Sounds like Jordan Cameron part 2. The Dolphins are counting on Thomas suddenly becoming a motivated player that resurrects his career. How often does something like that actually happen?

Blame Bortles all you want, but he has thrown more TDs the last two seasons than Tannehill ever has in a 2-year stretch. Hurns and Robinson both had double-digit TDs in 2015...they didn't seem to have problems with Bortles. If Thomas couldn't get YAC on the Jags, why would anyone think he'll do it in Miami - in an offense that is based on short passes with receivers getting YAC???

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Post by Degarmo Thu Feb 23, 2017 2:39 pm

Let's hope it's the change of scenery thing. Usually a turd is a turd, but sometimes you get surprised.

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