SACKSEER

For years now, Football Outsiders has had a statistical metric to at least try and determine which rookie pass rushers have the best chance of success or failure at the next level. And since edge rusher is a need for the Fins, I've decided to post this year's projections. Enjoy

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/nfl-draft/2017/sackseer-2017

BTW, here's what SACKSEER had to say about Dion Jordan 4 years ago (my mind is blown that it's been that long).

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2013/sackseer-2013

A decision to turn the card in for Dion Jordan is definitely a decision to bet on measurables. Jordan is a long, fast athlete at 6-foot-7 with 33 7/8-inch arms and a 4.60 forty time. The problem with Jordan is that he has tons of game experience but little production to show for it. In 39 games at Oregon, Jordan only recorded 14.5 sacks and two passes defensed. It is curious that Mingo absorbs so much criticism for his production against LSU, while Jordan receives little, when Mingo has outperformed Jordan on all fronts and against stronger competition. Jordan’s lack of passes defensed is especially concerning, given that scouting reports on Jordan note (positively) that he was regularly asked to drop into coverage, and thus likely had plenty of opportunities to make plays on the football. Jordan’s best-case scenario is probably to become Kamerion Wimbley -- another player with great athleticism and little sack production in college.

yikes. I see Harris going to the Dolphins at 22 from Salguero and others as a strong possibility.

I'd prefer Hendrickson later, and it appears that Sackseer agrees (90 percent rating)

HalCHorn wrote:yikes.  I see Harris going to the Dolphins at 22 from Salguero and others as a strong possibility.

HA!!! Wouldn't surprise me one iota. In fact I got that same feeling when reading about him without even knowing what anyone else was saying.

I still say the Phins will go with Taco if they go DE. He has the measureables that Tannenbaum wants, and he gets the Stephen Ross Michigan Seal of Approval.

To me, Taco is sort of a "meh" pick, but I do think he can at least be solid. As for Harris, I see him as a better fit as a 3-4 OLB and I don't like him as a 4-3 DE. IMO Charlton is the better player for the Phins in terms of fit.

BUT...I still think a DB might be the "best player available" if we do stay at 22. And I do think there's a good chance that we'll actually trade up.

I don't care about all that bullshit, if Njoku is available, DRAFT HIM

Degarmo wrote:I don't care about all that bullshit, if Njoku is available, DRAFT HIM

I'm all for it, but not happening. We're three-deep at TE already, and Gase has a man-crush on Julius Thomas. Njoku is headed for either New Jersey (Giants) or Pittsburgh IMO.

JMP wrote:

Degarmo wrote:I don't care about all that bullshit, if Njoku is available, DRAFT HIM

I'm all for it, but not happening.  We're three-deep at TE already, and Gase has a man-crush on Julius Thomas.  Njoku is headed for either New Jersey (Giants)  or Pittsburgh IMO.

In the words of Randolph Duke, "Fuck him!" (Gase).  Njoku is better than what we have, or at least, gives us some seriously interesting offensive sets.  If Thomas can be motivated by Gase, think of a 4-wide, with both those guys in the slot on either side.  Matchup hell.

So, we'll draft a DE we could have gotten in the 3rd after trading up.

I'm on board with you, Degarmo - but I don't think the Phins agree. We'll see soon enough...

For the record, I'd MUCH rather have Njoku than Thomas.

JMP wrote:I'm on board with you, Degarmo - but I don't think the Phins agree.  We'll see soon enough...

For the record, I'd MUCH rather have Njoku than Thomas.  

I'm dreamin' man, I know.  I just want them to find another dominant player.  Someone that changes the other team's game plan.  I'd love to believe that is Ajayi, but I fear this guy's a time bomb as far as his knee, so he may be a 3-4 year guy if we're lucky.  Stills is fine, shitty fundamentals, but fine and fast.  Landry has a big mouth, but can get you that first down.  We're kind of weak after that.  I don't think DeVante Parker is fit to wear Jim Jensen's jersey, and I'm not sure he can become a great player, not because of innate ability, but I just don't think he wants to work that hard.  I feel like our WR corps is actually a bit weak.

Degarmo wrote:We're kind of weak after that. I don't think DeVante Parker is fit to wear Jim Jensen's jersey, and I'm not sure he can become a great player, not because of innate ability, but I just don't think he wants to work that hard. I feel like our WR corps is actually a bit weak.

Complete 100% agreement here. But again - do Gase and his staff agree? Not sure. I will say this again: a Parker trade on draft day would not surprise me, but I don't think we'd get more than a 3rd. I'd do it.

I'd dump Parker for a 3rd all day long. If we do re-sign Landry, Parker is probably as good as gone anyways. At least get something for him now in return. Maybe Tannenbaum can swindle some receiver-starved team for more than a 3rd, you never know he is a hustler.

Depending on how the board falls, I would be dissapointed to see us draft Taco if Njoku is still on the board.

That's not BPA, that's a reach for need.

Njoku has a much higher ceiling and is more talented right now than Charlton is ever likely to be. Nawrocki scouting report on Taco makes me think "no thanks" and especially not in the first round. I'll have to look it up but I believe he was categorized as a "top 50" talent. In other words, optimal if you can draft him in the second round.

This is why I believe in BPA. What happens in next years draft? We'll probably be looking for a tight end as ours turn another year older, but instead of Njoku we'll draft some borderline talent, and we'll have Charlton on the squad so instead of taking the better defensive end next year we'll reach for the tight end. So after two drafts now you have an average draftee at each position instead of the best, you just drafted them in a different order. Makes no sense to me.

Personally, I like some of the prospects that are "tweeners" and I believe they'll have a higher ceiling than Charlton also. They don't have ideal size, but the ones I like are great athletes with a high work ethic. Give me that kind of player all day over a prototypical height and weight guy that's average.

JMP wrote:I'm on board with you, Degarmo - but I don't think the Phins agree. We'll see soon enough...

For the record, I'd MUCH rather have Njoku than Thomas.

Make room for me on that wagon. But I agree, unlikely.

white1 wrote:Depending on how the board falls, I would be dissapointed to see us draft Taco if Njoku is still on the board.  

That's not BPA, that's a reach for need.  

Njoku has a much higher ceiling and is more talented right now than Charlton is ever likely to be.  Nawrocki scouting report on Taco makes me think "no thanks" and especially not in the first round.  I'll have to look it up but I believe he was categorized as a "top 50" talent.  In other words, optimal if you can draft him in the second round.

This is why I believe in BPA.  What happens in next years draft? We'll probably be looking for a tight end as ours turn another year older, but instead of Njoku we'll draft some borderline talent, and we'll have Charlton on the squad so instead of taking the better defensive end next year we'll reach for the tight end.  So after two drafts now you have an average draftee at each position instead of the best, you just drafted them in a different order.  Makes no sense to me.

Personally, I like some of the prospects that are "tweeners" and I believe they'll have a higher ceiling than Charlton also.  They don't have ideal size, but the ones I like are great athletes with a high work ethic. Give me that kind of player all day over a prototypical height and weight guy that's average.

I'm in agreement, BUT...the way this roster has been assembled, I'm not sure it works. For example - let's say Njoku is available at 22. Thanks to FA/trades, we have absolutely no space for a TE this season. So if we draft Njoku, when will he ever see the field? He may eventually earn a starting job in 2018 or beyond, but do we want to use a first round pick on a player that might not see the field as a rookie? Of course, Thomas probably won't play 16 games anyway, so maybe Njoku will play some this season...but the point is, there's a lot of positions on this team where a rookie won't play much because we're paying starter's money to stopgap vets.

I'm all for building for the future, and I'm fine with rookies sitting for a year or two and then taking over for aging, expensive vets. BUT...not in the first round, and maybe not in the second either. I want those top picks to have an immediate impact - day one starter or key player in a rotation. But again, outside of guard, DL and maybe DB, I'm just not sure where rookies are going to get playing time on this team.

Re-signing Branch, signing Allen and acquiring Thomas were all moves that will prevent rookies from seeing much action at those positions, and hurts us with BPA in the first round. IMO, those were all bad moves that weren't necessary. We could have drafted a day one starter in round one at any of those spots, and if not, as Bird said, other veterans will be available this offseason. We could have found comparable mediocre DEs and safeties then, and cheaper. And I'm sure an injury-prone, underachieving TE could be had too, if needed.

Anyway, it is what it is. Regardless, the Phins MUST improve at drafting.

I know I've been chatty on this topic but I couldn't resist.

"Big Board" final update from Miller has Njoku ranked #13 overall. That's a great value if we can get him at 22. That is all.

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2704997-2017-nfl-draft-big-board-matt-millers-top-overall-player-rankings?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=programming-national

Njoku at 13 is too high IMO. I'd have him in the 20s.

Mando reports that the team would love to draft Charles Harris, Missouri at#22 if still available.

I'll have to read up on him tonight.

Sackseer has him tagged with their special "Bust Alert". I'm worried.

white1 wrote:Mando reports that the team would love to draft Charles Harris, Missouri at#22 if still available.  

I'll have to read up on him tonight.

Sackseer has him tagged with their special "Bust Alert".  I'm worried.

I have already guaranteed the Fins will make Harris their first pick so it's too late to stake that claim now

But feel free to jump on the bandwagon, you will be honored and exalted after it comes true

JMP wrote:I'm all for building for the future, and I'm fine with rookies sitting for a year or two and then taking over for aging, expensive vets.  BUT...not in the first round, and maybe not in the second either.  I want those top picks to have an immediate impact - day one starter or key player in a rotation.  But again, outside of guard, DL and maybe DB, I'm just not sure where rookies are going to get playing time on this team.

PREACH IT, JMP!!! TELL IT LIKE IT IS, BRUTHA!!!

I am seriously sick and fucking tired of hearing about how the first round pick of this team will "compete" for the starting job. Compete?!?! COMPETE?!?! ALL rookies COMPETE for jobs!!! Why the hell'd you draft the guy in the first round if you weren't even sure he'd start, you desultory drafting dingbats and doofuses?!?!

Hey, Degarmo's right! This ranting stuff is kewl

Like I said, I am not on the Charles Harris bandwagon as a 4-3 DE. I have him going to Denver, where he'd be a 3-4 OLB. I like the fit there...backing up Von Miller and Shane Ray. It's not a need for Denver necessarily, but I think he's exactly what they look for at the position.

I'm waiting for another gas mask video produced by Tannebaum appearing on twitter around 7:30, and that will be my pick.

finskev wrote:I'm waiting for another gas mask video produced by Tannebaum appearing on twitter around 7:30, and that will be my pick.

Bongmask vids are SO last year. Rape allegations that come out of nowhere are the in thing now

Conley was too drunk to notice. Right after he stepped off the elevator onto his floor, Tannenbaum slipped out of a dark corner and stepped on to return to the lobby. With a devilish grin on his face.

By the way, I'm off the ledge on Harris he would be a solid pick. Nawrocki has him rated as a legit first round prospect, and he also loves the game and works hard.

A scout was reported as saying regardless of workout numbers, he demonstrates explosion and play speed on tape. Many times this is far more important than the workout results when it comes to player success.

I'm good with him at 22.