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Phins playoff odds have increased

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JMP
mercury22nathan
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Post by mercury22nathan Tue Dec 19, 2017 9:35 am

because the Phins love to torture their fans, they actually have a higher probability (according to some sites) of making the playoffs after the Buffalo loss than before. i don't think it will happen, but for you gluttons of punishment:

the pre-Buffalo scenario required the Phins winning 3 games and now they need only will 2 (the major reason why the playoff probability went up) and...

http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/barry-jackson/article190304829.html

The Tennessee Titans must lose at home to the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday and at home to the Jacksonville Jaguars on Dec. 31 to finish 8-8.

the Rams and Jags are hot right now and the Titans lost to a struggling 49ers team. both losses are within the realm of possibility.

The 6-8 Oakland Raiders must lose one game. Oakland plays at Philadelphia in the final Monday Night Football game on Christmas and then finishes the season at the Chargers.

while Philly is without Wentz, they're still a good team and the Chargers present problems. 1 or both losses are again not unrealistic.

The 7-7 Chargers must lose one game. They play Sunday at the Jets before closing with the Raiders.

assuming the Chargers beat the Jets, they can lose to Oakland. and finally...

The New England Patriots must beat visiting Buffalo on Sunday.

and this very likely can and will happen.

how much you want to bet that everything the Phins need to happen will happen and then they'll decide to lose to the Bills in that final game just to drive that dagger deeper.


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Post by JMP Tue Dec 19, 2017 10:07 am

I think it's all a moot point, as I fully expect the Chiefs to beat the Dolphins. No need to even think about the p word...ain't happening.

Can you picture all those KC backs and receivers running free against our garbage zone coverage? I sure can. I'll be shocked if Travis Kelce finishes with under 100 yards receiving, and you can all but guarantee that Tyreek Hill will have a 50+ yard TD. This one could get ugly. If the Chiefs take an early lead (and I absolutely think they will) you know Gase will abandon the running game (as he always does), and Cutler will once again shit the bed.

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Post by finfanatic Tue Dec 19, 2017 4:51 pm

Agreed. Andy will dial up plays to make the Phins LBs look like complete dufuses...again.

And I doubt Miami CAN beat the Bills anyway.

This team is starting to remind me of those Sparano teams; they play hard, they win some games, but they just...never...seem...to be able...to....put it...all together.

I am loathe to say it, but that usually indicates something amiss with the coaching staff.

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Post by Degarmo Tue Dec 19, 2017 5:57 pm

We've already won for the last time this season.

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Post by JMP Tue Dec 19, 2017 6:31 pm

finfanatic wrote:

This team is starting to remind me of those Sparano teams; they play hard, they win some games, but they just...never...seem...to be able...to....put it...all together.  


Actually, that's a great call.

In Sparano's first year, the Phins went 11-5 and lost in the first round of the playoffs. Year 2 they went 7-9 with a backup QB playing most of the season.

In Gase's first year, the Phins went 10-6 and lost in the first round of the playoffs. Year 2 they are going to be 8-8 or 7-9 with a backup QB playing all season.

The difference? Sparano's teams were +28 and -30 in point differential those seasons. Gase's team was -17 last season and is -90 so far this season. In other words, on teams with arguably less talent, Sparano's teams were actually statistically better than "the offensive genius"'s teams.

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Post by mercury22nathan Wed Dec 20, 2017 11:30 am

and now ESPN is trying to convince us that the Phins have multiple likely ways to make the playoffs...

http://www.espn.com/blog/miami-dolphins/post/_/id/27164/the-five-ways-dolphins-6-8-can-still-make-the-playoffs

Here is a breakdown of each playoff scenario for Miami:

Miami wins last two and Buffalo (8-6), Baltimore (8-6) and Tennessee (8-6) all lose out.

Miami wins last two and two of Buffalo/Baltimore/Tennessee lose out, plus Los Angeles Chargers (7-7) win out, plus Kansas City (8-6) loses out.

Miami wins last two and Baltimore and Tennessee lose out, plus Chargers lose one game.

Miami wins last two and Buffalo and Tennessee lose out, plus Oakland (6-Cool and Chargers lose one game.

Miami wins last two and Baltimore and Buffalo lose out, Oakland and Chargers lose one game.

It is surprising the Dolphins still have so many possibilities of making the playoffs.

problem is, they all start with Miami winning. and the truth is, even at 8-8 the Phins don't deserve to be in the playoffs.

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Post by DolFan 316 Wed Dec 20, 2017 1:48 pm

Meh. Feh. Bleh.

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Post by Degarmo Wed Dec 20, 2017 8:01 pm

Fatal Flaw - "Miami wins last two".

FATALITY

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Post by white1 Thu Dec 21, 2017 10:32 am

Hey for a week we were relevant in December. Not bad if you think about seasons past. We’ve been out of it by Halloween before.
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