This Should Frighten You All

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This Should Frighten You All

Post by DolFan 316 on Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:14 am

https://www.profootballrumors.com/2018/02/top-3-offseason-needs-miami-dolphins-2

2. Find a skilled tight end for Adam Gase’s offense. The Broncos’ offense soared under Gase’s guidance in 2013 and 2014 thanks in large part to Gase and the play of Julius Thomas. Thomas broke out over that two year span, averaging 54 catches for 638 yards and 12 touchdowns, despite missing five games. Gase and Thomas reunited in Miami in 2017, but the results just weren’t the same. Thomas finished the year with a respectable 41 catches for 388 yards, but his eleven red zone targets resulted in just three TDs.

The Dolphins are expected to release Thomas and free themselves from his non-guaranteed $6.6MM cap charge. However, comments from Gase late last season indicate that the team may consider retaining him at a lesser rate.

“I see it different than it seems everyone else does,” Gase said. “He’s done everything I’ve asked him to do. I wish there’s been situations we’ve called plays for him and haven’t been able to get the ball to him either by coverage or the ball didn’t go there for whatever reason. When we’ve asked him to do things in the running game he’s given me max effort. He’s been there every day for us in practice and at games.”

That's right, instead of freeing up what would be $6.6 million in cap room the Fins could actually BRING THOMAS BACK while letting Landry walk because Thomas is obedient and stuff Shocked Shocked Shocked Wasn't he one of The Kneelers? I guess that's perfectly fine as long as he does what Gase asks. Which apparently is the absolute bare minimum required to be an employable NFL player.

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Re: This Should Frighten You All

Post by white1 on Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:19 am

I don't really care if we retain Thomas as long as he's cheap. And we still need a tight end even if he remains on the roster. Our depth chart is weak at that position, and Thomas is only getting older. So we still need to add someone younger to the mix.

6.6 million would be ludicrous.

In any event, I can't imagine a scenario where a new Thomas contract would prevent us from getting Landry signed.

If it does, then the team is even dumber than we all thought. I guess it's possible.

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Re: This Should Frighten You All

Post by DolFan 316 on Wed Feb 14, 2018 8:48 am

white1 wrote:6.6 million would be ludicrous.

In any event, I can't imagine a scenario where a new Thomas contract would prevent us from getting Landry signed.  

If it does, then the team is even dumber than we all thought.  I guess it's possible.

That's how much cap space they get if Thomas is let go. As he should be. And with ZERO dead money to boot. Think an extra $6.6 mil would be helpful in retaining Landry? I know it wouldn't hurt.

https://overthecap.com/player/julius-thomas/26/

Fins can also gain an additional $9.3 mil by parting ways with ja'Waun James. Again, with no dead money. I expect Gase to start praising James any day now.

https://overthecap.com/player/jawuan-james/2958/

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Re: This Should Frighten You All

Post by JMP on Wed Feb 14, 2018 9:09 am

“I see it different than it seems everyone else does,” Gase said.

Yep, you sure do Adam. You think Jay Cutler wasn't a problem, you think Julius Thomas is great, you think Charles Harris getting 19 tackles and 2 sacks is perfect, you think Mike Pouncey is the best center in football, you think Jermon Bushrod is a great guard, you think Kiko Alonso is a top LB, you think Jarvis Landry can't run routes and you think Jay Ajayi is a cancer. Hell, you thought Dallas Thomas was a legit starter!

And that's the problem, Adam...NO ONE ELSE see things the way you do, and you are heading toward a crash-and-burn future sooner than you think.

The talent evaluation on this team is really at an all-time low...and that's saying something. Bringing Julius Thomas back would be one of the dumbest moves in a long line of dumb moves.

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Re: This Should Frighten You All

Post by white1 on Wed Feb 14, 2018 9:11 am

That's how much cap space they get if Thomas is let go. As he should be. And with ZERO dead money to boot. Think an extra $6.6 mil would be helpful in retaining Landry? I know it wouldn't hurt.

Oh yeah, I get it.

I would envision terminating the existing contract and working on a new, cheaper one. He could always test the market if he wants, not that there will be one of any substance given his past few years production.

Then, we sign him to a new deal, much cheaper with a much lower cap hit. Again, I would not envision that new deal having a significant enough cap hit to prevent us from doing a Landry contract.

On the Landry topic. I really don't think it's a matter of cap space. The team has the cap space, or will very soon after a few offseason moves. From what I am reading, the team and Landry are far apart on the value he deserves.

So cap space is not so much the issue, it's how much the team is wiling to pay. For the record, I think the team is wrong and Landry is right. He's not only produced at a RECORD LEVEL over his first four years, he has an outsized impact on our offense. In fact, what he means to our offense cannot be overstated. Far and away he is our most important offensive weapon. Without him, it's going to be a real problem to solve for us. Given the level of his production - ANY TEAM - would struggle to replace him. This is the best player we have drafted in probably 20 years.

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Re: This Should Frighten You All

Post by DolFan 316 on Wed Feb 14, 2018 9:52 am

white1 wrote:So cap space is not so much the issue, it's how much the team is wiling to pay.  For the record, I think the team is wrong and Landry is right.  He's not only produced at a RECORD LEVEL over his first four years, he has an outsized impact on our offense.  In fact, what he means to our offense cannot be overstated.  Far and away he is our most important offensive weapon.  Without him, it's going to be a real problem to solve for us.  Given the level of his production - ANY TEAM - would struggle to replace him. This is the best player we have drafted in probably 20 years.

Here's a list of every player the Fins have drafted since '98 (one year further back would've included JT and Madison who both IMO were better than anyone since), according to Approximate Value. Keep in mind Landry's only played four seasons so his total AV is nowhere near the top, plus is YPC is absurdly low. But just from looking at the list he's right up there. People forget how good Long was his first few seasons. Surtain *might* have been better overall, but Landry's first four seasons as a Fin blow his away. Landry also has just 5 fewer catches in four years as a Fin than Chambers did in seven Shocked

http://pfref.com/tiny/F9T2L

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Re: This Should Frighten You All

Post by JMP on Wed Feb 14, 2018 10:09 am

Damn, 316...that's a scary list...most of our "best" drafted players in that period weren't even that good!

Jake Long was on a Hall of Fame path before injuries derailed his career. That dude was EXCELLENT for a few seasons. (Even though Matt Ryan would have been the better pick...)

Funny to see Ginn so high on the list. Amazing what can happen to a player's career when he goes to teams that use him properly.


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Re: This Should Frighten You All

Post by CarsonChris on Wed Feb 14, 2018 10:26 am

I’m just going to start compiling my coaches list and front office personnel. This team fucking blows because of the afore mentioned morons!

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Re: This Should Frighten You All

Post by DolFan 316 on Wed Feb 14, 2018 10:35 am

JMP wrote:Damn, 316...that's a scary list...most of our "best" drafted players in that period weren't even that good!

Jake Long was on a Hall of Fame path before injuries derailed his career.  That dude was EXCELLENT for a few seasons.  (Even though Matt Ryan would have been the better pick...)

Funny to see Ginn so high on the list.  Amazing what can happen to a player's career when he goes to teams that use him properly.

I was always a big Surtain fan, to the point of even liking him better than Madison even though by every measure Madison had the significantly better career.

Another sad fact of that list is that Todd Freaking Wade was as good as any Fins' OT this century not named Jake Long. Speaking of Long, only this team would have even their best draft pick of the last 20 years be a mistake Laughing Laughing Laughing

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Re: This Should Frighten You All

Post by HalCHorn on Wed Feb 14, 2018 12:50 pm

Really astounding how Hickey might well have been the best GM we've had since JJ. In only two drafts, he found two playmaking skill position players in Landry and Ajayi.

How many did Ireland find? Maybe Clay and Miller, and the two Hickey found were better. And he had what, 6 years?

Wanny? Chambers and McMichael were pretty good, granted. But Landry and Ajayi have been better. And he had 5 years.

To be fair, Hickey didn't do much else in those two drafts. But still, one homerun per draft is a lot better than anyone since JJ found two HOF candidates and two All Pro CB's in three drafts from 1996-1998.

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Re: This Should Frighten You All

Post by rightchea on Wed Feb 14, 2018 2:49 pm

Gase doesn't like to take risk and being familiar to players that he know is not surprising to me. For the fact that he is keeping Thomas is going to be a something that Tannebaum will either have to keep or get rid of.

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Re: This Should Frighten You All

Post by finfanatic on Wed Feb 14, 2018 4:11 pm

Yep, DF316 just keeps chipping away at my dwindling Gase phaith!!!

Yes, the sad history of the Dolphins is written in the abysmal drafting.

UNTIL someone can solve this most perplexing of puzzles and start stocking the team with younger, cheaper talent, I think all the moves and deals and hoo-rahs are for naught.

Rearranging chairs on the deck of the Titanic is the phrase that comes to mind.

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Re: This Should Frighten You All

Post by white1 on Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:10 am

The talent evaluation on this team is really at an all-time low...and that's saying something. Bringing Julius Thomas back would be one of the dumbest moves in a long line of dumb moves.

Read something interesting on Twitter this morning applicable to this topic. This is Omar responding to a question about biggest concern this offseason.

https://twitter.com/OmarKelly/status/964152376465809408

Tight end. Nobody worth investing in during free agency. And the draft class is filled with unpolished players. Gonna be slim pickings.

Given this statement and assuming there is some fact behind it, I'm more convinced that the team will redo the Thomas deal and keep him in the fold. Think about this, would you rather we cut Thomas and sign Jimmy Graham instead?

I'd recommend cutting Thomas, then signing him to a much cheaper deal, maybe 2-4 years in length to give him some guaranteed money. But nothing close to "breaking the bank" - simply getting him some money in bonus form and using the last year or two as a totally fake non-guaranteed salary.

I would expect this contract and cap hit to be small enough as to have no impact on whether we sign Landry or not.

Also, I would still expect another tight end to be added SOMEHOW. Even if a later draft pick, or a receiver with size that might convert, or another journeyman free agent with upside. We will need to fill out our depth chart at TE. Thomas can be a player on that depth chart, because it may not be realistic to expect us to find two tight ends from a limited talent pool in free agency and the draft.

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Re: This Should Frighten You All

Post by JMP on Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:45 am

I disagree, white.  Omar is dead wrong - I think there are plenty of quality TEs available in both FA and the draft.  

First, Julius Thomas is a dead end - we know what he is, and it's not good.  There's absolutely nothing positive about bringing him back - just a waste of time.

Second, looking at free agency, there are younger acsending players like Trey Burton and Troy Niklas.  There are solid vets like Richard Rodgers and Niles Paul.  Ed Dickson is also an interesting possibility.  Then there's restricted FA Cameron Brate (who would be my choice).  I woud not touch Jimmy Graham because of age and price, and I'd ignore Tyler Eifert because of his injury history - but those guys are viable options as well.

Third, the draft has some very intriguing TEs - some are plug and play, others are more raw.  Guys like Mark Andrews, Hayden Hurst, Dallas Goedert, Mike Gesicki, Troy Fumagalli and Chris Herndon should all be on the Phins' radar.  Last year we passed on a historically-good TE class - this year looks really good too, and the Phins MUST grab one of these guys.

I'd try to sign Brate and draft someone like Andrews or Gesicki...and the position instantly becomes a strength rather than a weakness.


Last edited by JMP on Thu Feb 15, 2018 11:05 am; edited 1 time in total

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Re: This Should Frighten You All

Post by white1 on Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:56 am

Interesting possibilities, that's encouraging.

Totally agree on Graham. If we sign him... ugh.

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Re: This Should Frighten You All

Post by JMP on Thu Feb 15, 2018 11:13 am

white1 wrote:Interesting possibilities, that's encouraging.

Totally agree on Graham.  If we sign him... ugh.

The thing with Graham is, he's an outstanding red zone threat...but he doesn't offer enough between the 20s at this stage of his career IMO. I just don't see the value, given that he will get a ton of money and seems to have lost a step. It would be a better signing than Thomas was, but I'm just not sure investing heavily in a 31-year old TE makes sense for the Phins. If we were a TE away from being contenders, I'd be all over Graham...but we need a lot more than a TE, and by the time we get to that level (if ever) Graham will be well past his prime. At TE, I'd much rather build through the draft and look at mid-level FAs.

I'm all in on Brate...may cost a lot, but he's very young and highly productive.

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Re: This Should Frighten You All

Post by white1 on Thu Feb 15, 2018 11:16 am

I'm all in on Brate...may cost a lot, but he's very young and highly productive.

That would be a really interesting move. Wonder what it would take to pry him away from the Bucs. Totally agree, he looks like the real deal. Plus, didn't they also draft OJ Howard? That might reduce their appetite to keep Brate if the price gets to a certain level...

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Re: This Should Frighten You All

Post by JMP on Thu Feb 15, 2018 11:27 am

white1 wrote:
I'm all in on Brate...may cost a lot, but he's very young and highly productive.

That would be a really interesting move.  Wonder what it would take to pry him away from the Bucs.  Totally agree, he looks like the real deal.  Plus, didn't they also draft OJ Howard? That might reduce their appetite to keep Brate if the price gets to a certain level...

He's restricted, so the Bucs do have the right to match. But with OJ Howard in the fold, I don't think they are going to pay Brate. It should be relatively easy for a team to make an offer that the Bucs won't match. Plus, Brate was undrafted so we wouldn't have to give up a pick (if I understand resticted free agency correctly.)

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Re: This Should Frighten You All

Post by Degarmo on Fri Feb 16, 2018 12:18 am

I've seen and heard enough from Adam Gase.

Now we wait for the light to come on in Ross' head in 1 1/2 more years.
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Re: This Should Frighten You All

Post by white1 on Fri Feb 16, 2018 8:22 am

I've seen and heard enough from Adam Gase.

I will still give him credit for dragging the 2016 roster to the playoffs and a 10-6 record.  Especially given the injury ravaged starters we had on defense for the tail end of that season.

However, he doesn't get a total pass - in fact I have a few concrete critiques (and a few suppositions) of Gase:

- WTF is he waiting for on defense? We had a shit coordinator in Vance Joseph in year 1, then promoted someone from the same staff in year 2 with similar results.  If you are on offensive specialist, and a new head coach, get someone on the staff that knows how to coach a defense.  You can't tell me that our talent is really THAT BAD.  The inconsistent results screams of poor coaching, scheming and game planning.

- From what I'm gathering through a number of posts, tweets and articles, it sounds like Gase is the guy who doesn't believe you need a good guard on the offensive line.  While everyone else in the league apparently knows that an offensive line is key to a good offense.  The luckier/better teams have found a piece or two late in the draft.  There's multiple ways to build a line, but the good teams know you need to have a good line.

- We went all-in on Jay Cutler last year, which was a waste of time and money that could have been carried over to the 2018 cap.  For what? A 6-10 season.  Again, this was Gase call all the way.  He failed.

- Gase has complained his offense is trash, and he's right.  Why did he not recognize this after the first half of 2016? The right move if the offense is fatally flawed is to totally makeover the unit as soon as possible.  All we really did was sign Julius Thomas and go into 2017 with largely the same personnel, only now we didn't want to run the power rushing attack that got us to the playoffs in 2016.  Poor strategy, bad way to build the roster, poor execution.  Directionless.

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Re: This Should Frighten You All

Post by JMP on Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:22 am

2016 was such a strange season. Making the playoffs was great, but that team could just as easily finished 6-10 or worse. I think it was more a case of fools gold and extreme luck than anything else. We only beat one good team, and that was the Steelers without Big Ben for much of the game and Bell's first game back from suspension. Miracle comebacks are not sustainable, as 2017 proved.

It's really hard for me to get behind an offensive-minded head coach who runs a garbage offense and doesn't even watch the defense during the games. I've seen absolutely nothing from Gase to indicate that he'll be anything more than another bad Dolphins hire.

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Re: This Should Frighten You All

Post by Degarmo on Fri Feb 16, 2018 4:39 pm

I agree with pretty much everything you said White. My only real issue with 2016 was why it took so long to figure out how terrible the guys on the OL were.
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Re: This Should Frighten You All

Post by finfanatic on Sat Feb 17, 2018 10:05 am

I agree with all three of these last posts.

Apparently what we (or just me? ) took for Gase's competence was just "fool's gold"?

Or was it just the fact that Tannehill got injured and the Jay Cutler team-killer took over?

THAT was Gaes's call too, so we can blame him for that, no doubt.

Gase has confidence in the SYSTEM, but apparently, that confidence means he thinks he can make the system work WITH just any players. As we have seen, that is not the case for the Phins. I think even on the field, the whole lack of organizational direction is is biting them in the arse (or fin?)

Right now, before any free agent moves are made, before any draft picks...I think the 2018 season is gonna suck fetid slimy swamp water...thru a crazy straw!

A few more dingle berry moves by Gase and the whole team is gonna realize he is a poseur! And then NOTHING is gonna get the team to win IMHO. It will be like bringing Wanny back...or keeping Philbin...when EVERYONE knew they were epic failures!

I sincerely hope I am wrong, but right now the indications point that way IMHO.

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Re: This Should Frighten You All

Post by white1 on Mon Feb 19, 2018 11:05 am

Gase has confidence in the SYSTEM, but apparently, that confidence means he thinks he can make the system work WITH just any players. As we have seen, that is not the case for the Phins. I think even on the field, the whole lack of organizational direction is is biting them in the arse (or fin?)

I really hope that is not the case. Because that is a totally flawed philosophy.

Coaching in the NFL can only get a team so far. Yes, Pederson made some clutch calls in the Superbowl. Going for it on 4th and short (when the game situation made sense). The plays he called in those situations.

But there's no way he wins without those players. Foles played a brilliant game at QB. The catch made by Jeffery for a TD was a thing of beauty, beating perfect coverage from Rowe. The offensive line kept the QB clean and provided the push for an effective rushing attack.

You need weapons, blue chip talents, playmakers on the roster. Thinking you can just drop Landry and plug in "insert FA journeyman receiver", while not only maintaining but improving the offense, is a delusional act. Ernest Wilford anyone? Legaduu Naanee?

If Gase is a system believer then we are doomed. I'm not convinced that he is, but this offseason will likely be very telling.


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Re: This Should Frighten You All

Post by white1 on Mon Feb 19, 2018 11:10 am

Second, looking at free agency, there are younger acsending players like Trey Burton and Troy Niklas. There are solid vets like Richard Rodgers and Niles Paul. Ed Dickson is also an interesting possibility. Then there's restricted FA Cameron Brate (who would be my choice). I woud not touch Jimmy Graham because of age and price, and I'd ignore Tyler Eifert because of his injury history - but those guys are viable options as well.


Going back to the tight end discussion, because this is a key position need for the Phins.

Apparently the Jets are on the brink of failing to retain Austin Seferian-Jenkins. According to PFT, the team offered him a 2 year $8 million dollar deal which he rejected: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2018/02/18/jets-want-to-keep-austin-seferian-jenkins/

If he makes it to free agency, IMO he is worth pursuing. His stats last year show potential, yet he probably hasn't done enough to totally break the bank either. What do you guys think?

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