Why The Lazor Offense Sucks

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Why The Lazor Offense Sucks

Post by DolFan 316 on Fri Sep 18, 2015 1:23 pm

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/clutch-encounters/2015/clutch-encounters-broncos-stun-chiefs

Discussing (Alex) Smith in the Kansas City chapter of FOA 2015, we introduced a stat we called "Air Minus Need Differential." We have since dumped the convoluted name for something simpler: Air Less Expected, or ALEX for short. This metric looks at how far the quarterback is throwing the ball relative to how many yards he needs for a first down. When Smith threw that swing pass five yards behind the line of scrimmage on third-and-5, that is minus-10 ALEX. Here is a table we used in FOA 2015 to highlight just how ridiculously conservative Smith is on third down since 2011 compared to his peers. (This is the table that didn't print correctly in physical copies of the book; sorry about that.) Keep in mind Smith also has the highest sack rate on third down -- he took one on Thursday night, too -- so if he's not firing too short, he's afraid to even pull the trigger.

And if you look at the aforementioned table, you'll see that the only other QBs between Alex Smith and Tannehill as far as throwing short of the sticks on third down are...Josh Freeman and Christian Ponder. I cannot make this stuff up, folks.


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Re: Why The Lazor Offense Sucks

Post by white1 on Fri Sep 18, 2015 2:14 pm

Yeah, totally agree on that DF.

Do you guys remember Tanny's rookie year, I believe he was playing against the Cardinals and threw the ball all over the place? He was hitting guys all over the field short, medium, long - not necessarily the deep bomb but well outside the 10 yard "box".

Why have we gone so far in the other direction? Because he can't heave it consistently 50 yards into a basketball hoop? Neither can a lot of QBs, that doesn't mean you cant hit those sweet 15 and 20 yarders more often. We've seen him do it - effectively.

I just don't get it.

Part of me was happy when we were getting our ass kicked Sunday. Just a small part. I was taking solace in this; "Well, if we really are this bad with this roster - Philbin will be gone and maybe we'll finally get a really good coach." Of course, I'm so dumb I was all into the game and got excited when we played well in the second half. But I'm still waiting for that other shoe to drop. It might be against Jacksonville, or it might be later in the season. But it's coming.

For the record, after 1 week I'm predicting the Bills will sweep us. Better coached, great running game and a monster, physical defense. That's a bad matchup for us. Very bad.

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Re: Why The Lazor Offense Sucks

Post by JMP on Fri Sep 18, 2015 3:21 pm

Yep, this has been my complaint about Lazor from day one.

I guess the logic is based on the fact that the receivers will get yards after catch, but it hasn't worked out that way because the passes are so short that even YAC doesn't help much.  Look at Landry - when he catches all those passes behind the line of scrimmage and gets 4 or 5 yards of YAC, he's still well short of the first down.  Contrast that to the way the Pats use Edelman, where pretty much every pass he catches results in a first down.

Last season, the offense was helped by the D (at least early in the year) and STs by having excellent field position.  But that's not something you can count on...you don't always get the benefit of a short field.

And like white said, it's not even about throwing "deep".  Intermediate-range passes would be great, but they're rare in this offense.

I hate this Dolphins offense - absolutely hate it.  It puts too much pressure on the players, and long, 10+ play drives increase the probability that something will go wrong.  It's a boring offense that perfectly fits the demeanor of the head coach.  Against good teams, you need TDs - not long drives.  We can't compete with the big boys with this offense.


Last edited by JMP on Fri Sep 18, 2015 7:33 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Re: Why The Lazor Offense Sucks

Post by Triumph on Fri Sep 18, 2015 5:31 pm

So do I misunderstand the table? It looks like zero equals how many yards are needed for a first down. Alex Smith throws it short of that to the point he is negative. But Passmaster is throwing it farther than what is needed and that is why he is in the positive. Maybe not as far as other quarterbacks but far enough that you do not need yards after catch to make first down. It is a first down. Ok. That is like saying an orgasm is not good enough - I want a longer orgasm. Longer is better yes but I think the discussion is getting off track. Makes me think of my ex and how she manipulated.

I agree will general idea of Miami throwing too many short passes. Happened in last game on first and goal then settle for field goal on fourth down.

Bah what do I know. I am just like a kindergartner compared to college students.
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Re: Why The Lazor Offense Sucks

Post by JMP on Fri Sep 18, 2015 7:45 pm

Triumph wrote:I am just like a kindergartner compared to college students.

You been hangin' around Blake Bortles??? Basketball

As for the chart, it's an average...so Tannehill's average third down throw is just a half yard more than the yards he needs for a first. To put it in perspective, that's just under Matt Schaub's average!

I find it interesting that the QBs at the top of the chart read like a who's who of the league's best QBs, while the QBs that average under one yard all suck...except Tannehill and Smith. And at least Smith has some winning seasons and playoff appearances under his belt.

This isn't meant as a knock on Tannehill - more a knock on how the Dolphins use him. At times it seems like they are afraid to let him throw anything beyond 5 yards. It's maddening...I just don't get it.

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Re: Why The Lazor Offense Sucks

Post by Triumph on Fri Sep 18, 2015 8:33 pm

Part of it is him taking the underneath tho
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Re: Why The Lazor Offense Sucks

Post by Degarmo on Fri Sep 18, 2015 11:46 pm

Lazor's offense's second check is usually the underneath guy.  It's obvious, because Tannehill has shown that he can go through progressions down the field.  Too many offenses are like this now.  It sucks.

Oh, and the point you made about 10+ play drives, JMP, that's literally Bellichick's mantra for defense. If you can't get off the field, keep them on the field for more plays. Don't give up the big play and they won't score a lot of points on us, regardless of TOP.
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