2016 Draft Strategy(first pick.com)

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2016 Draft Strategy(first pick.com)

Post by Umix10 on Tue Feb 02, 2016 4:32 pm

My strategy was simple, Joseph said that his defense is predicated on pressure up front and man coverage. for the most part that I have seen. the Bengals were a straight man defense really. so I incorporated that into my strategy in the draft. I also emphasized some dual positions as well. this what i came out with.

Your score is: 6505 (GRADE: A-)

Your Picks:
Round 1 Pick 19 (BUF): Reggie Ragland, ILB, Alabama (A)
Round 2 Pick 11: Kevin Dodd, DE, Clemson (A)
Round 2 Pick 16 (N.O.): Adolphus Washington, DT/DE, Ohio State (A)
Round 2 Pick 18 (BUF): Kendall Fuller, CB, Virginia Tech (A)
Round 3 Pick 10: Denver Kirkland, OT/OG, Arkansas (C+)
Round 3 Pick 17 (BUF): Sebastian Tretola, OG, Arkansas (B-)
Round 4 Pick 9: Kamalei Correa, OLB, Boise State (B)
Round 5 Pick 8: T.J. Green, FS, Clemson (C)
Round 6 Pick 11: Braxton Miller, WR, Ohio State (A+)
Round 7 Pick 6: Kevin Hogan, QB, Stanford (B+)
Round 7 Pick 10: Braxton Deaver, TE, Duke (D-)

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Re: 2016 Draft Strategy(first pick.com)

Post by DolFan 316 on Tue Feb 02, 2016 4:44 pm

Here's my draft strategy.

Do NOT draft players with a history of injury.

Do NOT draft project players whose position will be changed or who will take a few years to develop.

Do NOT trade up OR down, since this team always gets burned either way.

And for God's sake, figure out how the hell to identify O-line talent in the middle rounds and pick some there.

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Re: 2016 Draft Strategy(first pick.com)

Post by JMP on Tue Feb 02, 2016 5:16 pm

Nice draft, Umix.  Really love the Ragland, Fuller and Miller picks.  I'm a huge Ragland fan...one of my favorite players in this draft class. 

Not to sound like a broken record, but I think a lot of you guys are going to be disappointed with how many draft picks the Phins actually end up with.  Tannenbaum trades picks, he doesn't collect them.

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Re: 2016 Draft Strategy(first pick.com)

Post by JMP on Tue Feb 02, 2016 5:30 pm

DolFan 316 wrote:Here's my draft strategy.

Do NOT draft players with a history of injury.

Do NOT draft project players whose position will be changed or who will take a few years to develop.

Do NOT trade up OR down, since this team always gets burned either way.

And for God's sake, figure out how the hell to identify O-line talent in the middle rounds and pick some there.

The injury history is tough, because so many of these young guys do have injuries in their past.  I think you can't draft an injury-prone player at a position where you are relying on the guy to make an early impact.  With Gurley last year, I wanted the Phins to pick him because he didn't have to start right away...we had Miller, so he could sit till he was 100%.  The Dolphins don't have that kind of luxury with someone like a Jaylon Smith - a player I love, but who needs to start right away for the Phins - who currently have NOTHING at LB.  I might be convinced to take him later, but at 8 the Phins need an immediate home run.

Project players are for the 7th round or after the draft.  The Dolphins constantly use picks in the 3rd, 4th and 5th rounds on projects, and it kills them every year.  As an example, why the hell anyone would draft Tony Lippett in round 5 is a mystery to me.  Or Cedric Thompson for that matter.

I'd rather not trade out of the 8 spot depending on who is on the board.  At the same time, I want more picks.  But at the end of the day, my priority is adding impact players.  There's a better chance, at least on paper, of getting an impact player at 8 than, say, 20.  And I generally hate trading up, unless you're going after a QB.

Yep, the Phins MUST be able to find quality linemen in the mid and later rounds like seemingly every other NFL team is able to do.  It's ludicrous that the only quality linemen we can get are in the first round or via huge free agent $$$.

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Re: 2016 Draft Strategy(first pick.com)

Post by CarsonChris on Wed Feb 03, 2016 3:43 pm

Is Myles Jack to good to pass up with the eighth pick? He was injured early in the season and would probably have to miss 4-6 games to start the year. I hate drafting injured players but Jack is dynamic as an athlete.

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Re: 2016 Draft Strategy(first pick.com)

Post by JMP on Thu Feb 04, 2016 9:23 am

CarsonChris wrote:Is Myles Jack to good to pass up with the eighth pick? He was injured early in the season and would probably have to miss 4-6 games to start the year. I hate drafting injured players but Jack is dynamic as an athlete.

Yeah, that's a tough call.  He's exactly what the Phins need, but can the Phins afford to wait for him to get healthy?  We saw with Parker and Ajayi that it SUCKS to have a rookie sidelined for half a season.  I don't know...

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Re: 2016 Draft Strategy(first pick.com)

Post by CarsonChris on Thu Feb 04, 2016 10:57 am

Miami needs a linebacker that can cover a TE. We don't have any. None of the other top ILB can. Misi can't.

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Re: 2016 Draft Strategy(first pick.com)

Post by Umix10 on Thu Feb 04, 2016 11:11 am

Although I hate to admit it, I like Josephs philosophy on D. Pressure up front and press man. IMHO he leaves the weakness at linebacker. If everything stays the same, Hargraves or Fuller at 8. Pass rusher in the 2nd and then imo tannebaum trades back to stockpile the back end looking for OG's!

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Re: 2016 Draft Strategy(first pick.com)

Post by JMP on Thu Feb 04, 2016 5:27 pm

If you have garbage LBs, you will be exposed - regardless of how much pressure you generate and how good your coverage is.  It's been a colossal weak spot for years with the Phins, and they continue to ignore it.

But yeah, there's no doubt that we need new DEs and corners too.  The D needs a total rebuild.

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Re: 2016 Draft Strategy(first pick.com)

Post by DolFan 316 on Thu Feb 04, 2016 6:27 pm

There's no way this team can rebuild the O *and* the D in one offseason (some people would say they can't even rebuild one of the two, but that's another story). They'll have to pick one and rebuild the other next year IMO.

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Re: 2016 Draft Strategy(first pick.com)

Post by white1 on Fri Feb 05, 2016 9:15 am

Yeah, that's a tough call. He's exactly what the Phins need, but can the Phins afford to wait for him to get healthy? We saw with Parker and Ajayi that it SUCKS to have a rookie sidelined for half a season. I don't know...

I would take the long term view, so IMO if he is clearly the best athlete available when we pick, take him. Whether he can start immediately is not a material consideration for me.

Going to the Parker and Ajayi picks, yes it hurts to see them sidelined - but if we hit on both players and they turn into great starters for us in year 2 and 3, that's a win.

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Re: 2016 Draft Strategy(first pick.com)

Post by JMP on Fri Feb 05, 2016 9:30 am

white1 wrote:
Yeah, that's a tough call.  He's exactly what the Phins need, but can the Phins afford to wait for him to get healthy?  We saw with Parker and Ajayi that it SUCKS to have a rookie sidelined for half a season.  I don't know...

I would take the long term view, so IMO if he is clearly the best athlete available when we pick, take him.  Whether he can start immediately is not a material consideration for me.  

Going to the Parker and Ajayi picks, yes it hurts to see them sidelined - but if we hit on both players and they turn into great starters for us in year 2 and 3, that's a win.  

Well, the question is: what is Jack going to be after the injury?  Parker may have a chronic foot issue, and Ajayi reportedly has a knee with bone on bone that could impact his career.  Jack is a very athletic player, and while knee surgery is pretty 'safe' these days, will his knee be 100% or will it change his game?  He got the injury in September, so in theory he may be fine before the draft.  I'd have to make sure he's good to go and the knee is strong before I pull the trigger.  Then again, can we trust the Dolphins' medical staff???

I agree about the long-term view, but that's a tricky proposition.  Chances are, Parker and Ajayi will have short careers due to their issues, so you've got to take that into account.

Regardless, the Phins can't afford to miss with a top 10 pick again.

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Re: 2016 Draft Strategy(first pick.com)

Post by white1 on Fri Feb 05, 2016 10:44 am

Well, the question is: what is Jack going to be after the injury? Parker may have a chronic foot issue, and Ajayi reportedly has a knee with bone on bone that could impact his career. Jack is a very athletic player, and while knee surgery is pretty 'safe' these days, will his knee be 100% or will it change his game? He got the injury in September, so in theory he may be fine before the draft. I'd have to make sure he's good to go and the knee is strong before I pull the trigger. Then again, can we trust the Dolphins' medical staff???

I agree about the long-term view, but that's a tricky proposition. Chances are, Parker and Ajayi will have short careers due to their issues, so you've got to take that into account.

Regardless, the Phins can't afford to miss with a top 10 pick again.

All good points, and agree if the injury significantly impacts length of the players career, that defeats the purpose of the long term view.

I want to draft guys who, when their rookie contract is up, there is no question on whether they are worth market value to sign long term. The results will be obvious.

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Re: 2016 Draft Strategy(first pick.com)

Post by Birdmond on Tue Feb 09, 2016 7:51 am

CarsonChris wrote:Is Myles Jack to good to pass up with the eighth pick? He was injured early in the season and would probably have to miss 4-6 games to start the year. I hate drafting injured players but Jack is dynamic as an athlete.

Miles Jack will not miss a game barring a setback. He's even said he will do every drill at the combine. His injury wasn't nearly as bad as Smith's and it happened much earlier. That being said, I don't see either player being on Miami's board. Both players will be weak side LB's in the NFL. Miami will be going after SAMS and MIKES. Just my opinion based on reading between the lines.

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Re: 2016 Draft Strategy(first pick.com)

Post by white1 on Tue Feb 09, 2016 8:01 am

If that's the case we make the same old mistakes. Passing over a great linebacker because he doesn't play a position of need.!

If he's best available you take him - that's my philosophy.

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Re: 2016 Draft Strategy(first pick.com)

Post by Birdmond on Tue Feb 09, 2016 8:16 am

white1 wrote:If that's the case we make the same old mistakes. Passing over a great linebacker because he doesn't play a position of need.!

If he's best available you take him - that's my philosophy.



I like Jack, but Smith and those skinny ankles and knees scare me to death. I want a bigger and more physical team. I could care less about finding a LB that can cover Gronk because there's only been one drafted in the last 10 years who could do it. (Kuechly).

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Re: 2016 Draft Strategy(first pick.com)

Post by white1 on Tue Feb 09, 2016 9:30 am

I like Jack, but Smith and those skinny ankles and knees scare me to death. I want a bigger and more physical team.

Totally agree on that point. Beyond the size of his legs and ankles, the fact they are underdeveloped speaks volumes about his work ethic. Cannot be putting in the time in the gym. Relying on his talent to compete, rather than working to get better. This does not make me think NFL success is likely for him.


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Re: 2016 Draft Strategy(first pick.com)

Post by CarsonChris on Tue Feb 09, 2016 12:15 pm

Jack = Lavonte David

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Re: 2016 Draft Strategy(first pick.com)

Post by CarsonChris on Tue Feb 09, 2016 12:17 pm

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/2015/10/16/myles-jack-ucla-signs-octagon-begins-preparing-nfl-draft/74081868/

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Re: 2016 Draft Strategy(first pick.com)

Post by CarsonChris on Tue Feb 09, 2016 12:23 pm

I didn't realize Jack's injury was a meniscus tear. That's not even a real injury. I thought it was serious like an acl or mcl.

http://espn.go.com/blog/pac12/post/_/id/97361/former-ucla-lb-myles-jack-has-sights-set-on-nfl-combine

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Re: 2016 Draft Strategy(first pick.com)

Post by Birdmond on Tue Feb 09, 2016 1:18 pm

CarsonChris wrote:I didn't realize Jack's injury was a meniscus tear. That's not even a real injury. I thought it was serious like an acl or mcl.

http://espn.go.com/blog/pac12/post/_/id/97361/former-ucla-lb-myles-jack-has-sights-set-on-nfl-combine


Yeah he's good to go.

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Re: 2016 Draft Strategy(first pick.com)

Post by JMP on Tue Feb 09, 2016 2:36 pm

CarsonChris wrote:Jack = Lavonte David

Then sign me up right now!

I don't claim to know anything about sports analytics, and I really don't want to.  But, it seems like Tannenbaum is really into it, and I think we'll draft guys that fit the metrics he's looking for.  I much prefer to focus on good football players, but it is what it is.

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Re: 2016 Draft Strategy(first pick.com)

Post by CarsonChris on Tue Feb 09, 2016 3:01 pm

I read one scouting report saying he's the best cover linebacker to come out since Kuechly.

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Re: 2016 Draft Strategy(first pick.com)

Post by Birdmond on Tue Feb 09, 2016 3:50 pm

CarsonChris wrote:I read one scouting report saying he's the best cover linebacker to come out since Kuechly.

Jack would be an all pro strong safety. That's how talented he is.

Keep in mind he's my favorite player in the draft and Miami has NEVER selected one of my top 3 favorite draft eligible players. So don't get your hopes up.

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Re: 2016 Draft Strategy(first pick.com)

Post by CarsonChris on Tue Feb 09, 2016 5:46 pm

Jack will go with the ninth pick. I think we go punter in the first round

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