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more is better

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Birdmond
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Post by mercury22nathan Thu Apr 14, 2016 9:17 am

hey look, even the Patriots screw up 1st round picks...

The New England Patriots surprisingly waived 2014 first-round draft choice Dominique Easley on Wednesday, the team announced.

Easley was projected to be the team's top interior sub rusher in 2016. That has primarily been his role in his first two seasons, both of which concluded with him on season-ending injured reserve.

Easley had entered the NFL with health questions, as he had torn both ACLs in college at Florida.

...and by taking an injured player too (sound familiar?).

but the difference is that the Patriots are able to overcome because of the draft quantity theory...

OF ALL THE gambles NFL teams will take on players during this year's draft, perhaps the riskiest move will be betting on their own flawed judgment. Organizations invest millions of dollars in scouting and player analysis, applying everything from extensive physical testing to pseudo-scientific written examinations in an attempt to weed out true talents from the chaff.

There's one big problem: All the empirical evidence we can find suggests that nobody in the league is actually any good at picking players. The best plan? In the scratch-off lottery that is the draft, the smartest strategy is simply to have more tickets.

Several studies, notably recent analyses by Chase Stuart of FootballPerspective.com and Neil Paine of FiveThirtyEight, suggest that no NFL team exhibits any sort of year-to-year consistency in acing the draft. By all accounts, despite all the energy and money teams pour into picking players, the draft is mostly a crapshoot.

Teams should start from the premise that they know nothing about the draft pool and act accordingly. In practice, that means taking the lottery ticket analogy quite seriously and acquiring as many picks as possible.

And wouldn't you know, that's exactly what personnel executives like Belichick and Newsome do. Belichick trades down as much as anybody in football...

http://espn.go.com/nfl/draft2016/story/_/id/15159462/successful-drafting-all-volume-nfl

so remind me again why Tannenbaum likes trading away draft picks like they're infectious?

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Post by JMP Thu Apr 14, 2016 9:23 am

Yep, when you stockpile draft picks AND know how to develop players that fit your schemes, you can take chances on players like Easley.  The Patriots also know how to identify free agents that fit, like in this case Terrence Knighton.

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Post by Birdmond Thu Apr 14, 2016 10:11 am

I still think the Patriots have pissed away as many or more draft picks than anyone. Their advantage is have a HOF coach and HOF QB running the same system for a VERY long time. When Brady goes they're done.

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Post by white1 Thu Apr 14, 2016 11:11 am

Their advantage is have a HOF coach and HOF QB running the same system for a VERY long time. When Brady goes they're done.

I agree with this. Stability of scheme is an advantage, but we saw what happened when Bill got just a bit too cute piecing together a secondary full of spare parts. Did not work.

JMP touched on player development, a really excellent and overlooked point. You need a certain level of stability in scheme to have a chance at doing this really well. Compounded by the drawback that endless scheme volatility translates to constantly retooling the roster with bigger power guys vs smaller athletic guys or vice versa.

Having Gase on a five year deal is a good thing for us. This should afford him and his staff the chance to implement preferred schemes on both sides of the ball, and tailor the roster to fit. Lack of depth and major roster holes should disappear as a problem following his second offseason. With a couple seasons to develop talent to fill gaps, there should be no excuses in year 3 if it's not really coming together.
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Post by mercury22nathan Thu Apr 14, 2016 11:14 am

Birdmond wrote:I still think the Patriots have pissed away as many or more draft picks than anyone.

Exactly! and that is exactly the point. the draft is such a crap shoot that everyone is going to piss away picks, so the more you have, the more you will piss away, but also the more likely that you will hit on one. the best way to increase the odds is to maximize the number of picks placed strategically throughout the draft.

Even if you want to make the argument that those teams were overstuffed with talent and couldn't support more picks, consider how the truly great personnel executives have made mistakes. Baltimore GM Ozzie Newsome sent first- and second-round picks to the Patriots to trade up for Kyle Boller. Bill Belichick has traded up to grab the likes of Bethel Johnson and Ron Brace. Teams run by people who have forgotten more about football than you or I will ever know traded up to grab Blaine Gabbert and Trent Richardson. Their boards were remarkably, catastrophically wrong.

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Post by DolFan 316 Thu Apr 14, 2016 2:10 pm

Birdmond wrote:I still think the Patriots have pissed away as many or more draft picks than anyone.  Their advantage is have a HOF coach and HOF QB running the same system for a VERY long time.   When Brady goes they're done.

I used to think this same way. Hell, I thought the Pats were done WITH Brady after 4 games or so of the '14 season. You know, the season they won yet another Super Bowl.

Remember, this is the same team that was 11-5 without Brady in '08. And now they actually have a defense.

Speaking of which, this decade the Pats have drafted Devin McCourty, Chandler Jones, Dont'a Hightower, and Jamie Collins. All better than anybody the Fins have drafted on D. Oh, and then there's that Gronk guy and Nate Solder (better than any OT or maybe any O-lineman period the Fins have drafted in that time) . Who cares that they've whiffed on a lot of picks?

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/draft-finder.cgi?request=1&year_min=2010&year_max=2015&type=&round_min=1&round_max=30&slot_min=1&slot_max=500&league_id=&team_id=nwe&pos_new=qb&pos_new=rb&pos_new=wr&pos_new=te&pos_new=e&pos_new=t&pos_new=g&pos_new=c&pos_new=ol&pos_new=dt&pos_new=de&pos_new=dl&pos_new=lb&pos_new=db&pos_new=k&pos_new=p&college_id=all&conference=any&show=all&order_by=career_av

And I'm not even sure they've whiffed all that badly on picks when it comes to DBs. Since 2010 only one team has recorded more INTs than the Pats. The Fins are...a bit further down the list.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/play-index/draft-finder.cgi?request=1&year_min=2010&year_max=2015&type=&round_min=1&round_max=30&slot_min=1&slot_max=500&league_id=&team_id=nwe&pos_new=qb&pos_new=rb&pos_new=wr&pos_new=te&pos_new=e&pos_new=t&pos_new=g&pos_new=c&pos_new=ol&pos_new=dt&pos_new=de&pos_new=dl&pos_new=lb&pos_new=db&pos_new=k&pos_new=p&college_id=all&conference=any&show=all&order_by=career_av

You can argue that they've suddenly developed an inability to draft WRs, but that hasn't seemed to matter at all--they just go out and get some random small white guy to catch endless slant passes for first downs over and over.

Momentum is a powerful thing. The Cowboys won a SB with Barry Fucking Switzer. The Bills still made the playoffs in '98 and '99 after all their stars were gone. The Pats will be just fine for at least 2 seasons even after B&B leave. They reached the SB in '96 with Kraft as owner years before either of them arrived. I've officially given up thinking they will ever be "done".

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Post by DolFan 316 Thu Apr 14, 2016 2:17 pm

Now JJ on the other hand, was an absolute master at pissing away picks. Not coming away with a single offensive player who made a single Pro Bowl in four years' worth of drafts when I'm 99% sure he had more picks than anybody else should literally be a crime. JJ singlehandedly turned me against ever trading down for years. I still don't think the Fins should be doing it, since they'll just blow the picks anyway.

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Post by rightchea Thu Apr 14, 2016 4:00 pm

Well he hasn't traded away any yet. And Moving down without losing picks is not really losing picks

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Post by mercury22nathan Fri Apr 15, 2016 9:10 am

its only a mater of time.

Tannenbaum was general manager in New York from 2006 to 2012. In those seven seasons, Tannenbaum made 18 trades that dealt away 28 draft choices and eight players and acquired for New York 14 draft choices and five players.

And if that seems unbalanced, consider that Tannenbaum wasn't just dealing with other teams straight up. He was often trying to vault up draft charts to position the Jets with higher picks few believed he could or should be acquiring.

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/dolphins_in_depth/2016/04/all-signs-point-to-big-moves-by-the-miami-dolphins.html

Tannenbaum's draft philosophy is in direct conflict with what successful teams do.

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Post by white1 Fri Apr 15, 2016 9:20 am

The only move so far with us is the trade down with Philly in order to get two players.

Hopefully he has learned his lesson. If he hasn't there's no hope for us. Constantly trading up and dealing away known caliber players for the dice roll of a draft pick is a bad, bad philosophy.
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Post by rightchea Fri Apr 15, 2016 9:23 am

I believe that Ross, Gase and the GM (forgot his name) will keep control of that. There is no player that Miami should trade up for especially since there is abundant of RB coming out this year

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Post by mercury22nathan Fri Apr 15, 2016 9:29 am

rightchea wrote:I believe that Ross, Gase and the GM (forgot his name) will keep control of that.

Ross? are you sure about that? (from the article)

In five of the seven years Stephen Ross has owned the Miami Dolphins, he has suggested at least one trade or dynamic roster move to his general managers -- first with Jeff Ireland, then Dennis Hickey and lately with executive vice president of football operations Mike Tannenbaum.

There have been spurts when calls suggesting a trade or some other "outside the box move" from Ross's New York office to the Dolphins Florida training facility have come much more frequently than just once a year.

It seems the owner really likes thinking of imaginative ways to possibly upgrade his team and he doesn't mind sharing his thoughts with his football people who always have the power -- mostly because of language in their contracts -- to act on the suggestion or not.

And in that regard the fact Tannenbaum is working for Ross is a perfect match.

Tannenbaum, you see, is working for an owner who wants his football guys to make moves. And Tannenbaum, in his first offseason with the ultimate power to make moves, loves to make moves.

The wheeler dealer is holding the cards for a boss who has been known to encourage wheeling and dealing.

and as far as the GM...

This year, Tannenbaum can pretty much do whatever he pleases because Hickey is no longer with the team and new general manager Chris Grier answers to Tannenbaum. And, despite all humility and talk of organizational and collaborative decisions you'll hear ad nauseam the next two weeks, Tannenbaum is running the show.

Period.

he's along for the ride.

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Post by rightchea Fri Apr 15, 2016 10:04 am

Dammit!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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Post by Birdmond Fri Apr 15, 2016 11:38 am

I've been thinking about this and I've done a conplete 180. I actually want Tanneballs to do whatever it takes to get Zeke and the best guard available in the draft. I don't care what he gives up. I want Zeke and a pro bowl guard out of this draft. Eliminating all excuses for Tanehill. As for the D, there will be several veteran CB's and LB's available after the draft. Sign them to prove it deals.


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Post by white1 Fri Apr 15, 2016 11:47 am

Bird, you may actually get your wish.

I cannot say whether I agree or not. Seems to me the "more is better" approach makes sense, but there are exceptions to every rule.
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Post by Birdmond Fri Apr 15, 2016 12:14 pm

white1 wrote:Bird, you may actually get your wish.

I cannot say whether I agree or not. Seems to me the "more is better" approach makes sense, but there are exceptions to every rule.

i don't think they will. I think they are confident VH3, WJ3 or Zeke will be there at 13. I really hate drafting a CB in round 1.

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Post by Birdmond Fri Apr 15, 2016 12:58 pm

Just heard Myles Jack's medical recheck did not go well. He's a Miami Dolphin. Mark it down.

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Post by rightchea Fri Apr 15, 2016 1:25 pm

yep that sounds about right

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Post by white1 Fri Apr 15, 2016 1:34 pm

Just heard Myles Jack's medical recheck did not go well. He's a Miami Dolphin. Mark it down.

If he doesnt see the field in 2016 I would be okay with that. But not in the first round. You get him later and he turns into a superstar for 2017 and beyond, it's a great pickup.

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Post by Birdmond Fri Apr 15, 2016 2:03 pm

white1 wrote:
Just heard Myles Jack's medical recheck did not go well. He's a Miami Dolphin. Mark it down.

If he doesnt see the field in 2016 I would be okay with that. But not in the first round. You get him later and he turns into a superstar for 2017 and beyond, it's a great pickup.


I'm pretty sure this one has to be a smokescreen. His injury was a torn meniscus. Not that serious.

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Post by rightchea Fri Apr 15, 2016 2:27 pm

Myles Jack's medical might not be that serious but if his injury is not fully heal Miami just need to find someone else.

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Post by white1 Fri Apr 15, 2016 2:48 pm

Did the report mean to say "Jaylon Smith"? Because that one is on PFT.

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Post by white1 Fri Apr 15, 2016 2:48 pm

Did the report mean to say "Jaylon Smith"? Because that one is on PFT.

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Post by rightchea Fri Apr 15, 2016 3:16 pm

That what I just saw as well. Actually he will miss the whole 2016 season. Jaylon Smith might be a good 4th to 5th round pick up if he is out for the rest of the season. here is the link:

http://www.foxsports.com/nfl/story/jaylon-smith-nfl-draft-notre-dame-knee-injury-2016-season-041516

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Post by DolFan 316 Fri Apr 15, 2016 3:21 pm

Maybe the Fins will draft both Jack and Smith. The sad part is, I'd be more shocked if they didn't.

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