Keep a close eye on Myles Jack in the draft

Page 1 of 2 1, 2  Next

View previous topic View next topic Go down

Keep a close eye on Myles Jack in the draft

Post by JMP on Mon Apr 25, 2016 9:14 am

With the latest reports that Myles Jack's knee may be a chronic issue, I now expect him to drop. And I expect him to drop all the way to...13, where there is no doubt in my mind that the Phins will pounce on him.

Here's an interesting article on Jack, and the way teams try to assess injured players in the draft:
http://www.si.com/nfl/2016/04/24/myles-jack-2016-nfl-draft-injury-news-update

Because this is not as simple, in some ways, as an ACL tear or a broken bone, there figures to be a wide variance in final judgments.

A lot of the outcome will boil down to the conclusions each franchise’s doctors reach and, equally as important, how comfortable a GM feels drafting a player with injury issues.





JMP
Admin

Posts : 3594
Join date : 2015-04-07
Age : 45

View user profile http://dolfancave.forumotion.com

Back to top Go down

Re: Keep a close eye on Myles Jack in the draft

Post by Birdmond on Mon Apr 25, 2016 11:48 am

I'm currently in a Twitter debate with Sports Illustrated's Clancy and Chris Kauffman about drafting Jack. No way I take Jack over Elliott. No way. I'm not gambling on injured players.


Last edited by Birdmond on Mon Apr 25, 2016 12:09 pm; edited 1 time in total

Birdmond

Posts : 988
Join date : 2015-04-08

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Keep a close eye on Myles Jack in the draft

Post by white1 on Mon Apr 25, 2016 11:58 am

Elliott over jack s no brainer however Elliott is most likely gone. What if jack is bpa? I'd be really tempted to pull the trigger. Even three years of blue chip performance has value. Avg career is far less than that

white1

Posts : 1329
Join date : 2015-04-08

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Keep a close eye on Myles Jack in the draft

Post by Birdmond on Mon Apr 25, 2016 12:11 pm

white1 wrote:Elliott over jack s no brainer however Elliott is most likely gone. What if jack is bpa? I'd be really tempted to pull the trigger. Even three years of blue chip performance has value. Avg career is far less than that

Then help me out on Twitter! LOL

I'm getting killed! It's @SiClancy

Birdmond

Posts : 988
Join date : 2015-04-08

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Keep a close eye on Myles Jack in the draft

Post by Birdmond on Mon Apr 25, 2016 12:13 pm

Given Miami's history of drafting I just cannot gamble on injuries. We are just not in the position to do so.

Birdmond

Posts : 988
Join date : 2015-04-08

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Keep a close eye on Myles Jack in the draft

Post by JMP on Mon Apr 25, 2016 12:28 pm

I'd probably take a healthy Jack over Elliott just because I am so starved for a real linebacker, but the injury scares the hell out of me.  And I don't trust the Dolphins' staff to make the right call on any injury.

I think Elliott will be gone before Miami's pick, and if Jack falls I don't think they'll let him go.  This Dolphins regime does not seem to have an issue with players returning from injury.

The bottom line for me is this: the Phins MUST hit a homerun in round one.  I would not be comfortable taking a player with a potentially chronic knee injury.  I know it's not just about 2016, but long-term how much can Jack be counted on?  Too much doubt for me.  As much as I like Jack, if 12 other teams pass on him there is most definitely a reason.

JMP
Admin

Posts : 3594
Join date : 2015-04-07
Age : 45

View user profile http://dolfancave.forumotion.com

Back to top Go down

Re: Keep a close eye on Myles Jack in the draft

Post by Birdmond on Mon Apr 25, 2016 12:30 pm

JMP wrote:I'd probably take a healthy Jack over Elliott just because I am so starved for a real linebacker, but the injury scares the hell out of me.  And I don't trust the Dolphins' staff to make the right call on any injury.

I think Elliott will be gone before Miami's pick, and if Jack falls I don't think they'll let him go.  This Dolphins regime does not seem to have an issue with players returning from injury.

The bottom line for me is this: the Phins MUST hit a homerun in round one.  I would not be comfortable taking a player with a potentially chronic knee injury.  I know it's not just about 2016, but long-term how much can Jack be counted on?  Too much doubt for me.  As much as I like Jack, if 12 other teams pass on him there is most definitely a reason.

I agree and if the injury never happened Jack would be gone at the third pick. Kind of irresponsible for UCLA to let Jack play running back IMHO.

Birdmond

Posts : 988
Join date : 2015-04-08

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Keep a close eye on Myles Jack in the draft

Post by white1 on Mon Apr 25, 2016 1:39 pm

Totally hear the thoughts and concerns on the injury. In taking the counter point let me expand on my thinking a bit.

In this first round, there are a handful of players projected to make an immediate and meaningful impact. Just like in every draft, it's highly likely that one (more likely more than one) player drafted in the top 12 will make zero impact and turn into a total bust (see: Jordan, Dion).

So think about this scenario. Ramsey, Elliott, the two QBs, best tackle, end, corners are all gone. Would you trade just 3 years of Jack playing at a top 5 linebacker level for a bust who maybe starts but makes zero impact? It's a gamble either way. For me, I'd rather place my bet on a consensus talent who has it all except a 100% healthy knee, vs the prospect who may be healthy, but just does not have the skills, athleticism, work ethic, or some other quality that will prevent him from every becoming a factor in the NFL.

ALL of these guys, with very few exceptions especially this year, have question marks somewhere. To me, I take the risk on a top 5 talent. We all know we are going nowhere this season, what better way to use it than rest/rehab a player that could turn into one of the best linebackers in the game? If he has a short career, deal with it when that day comes.

One final point, how long do you think Elliott will play? Running backs take a beating, it's a crapshoot if they have the skills and durability to last any longer than a few seasons. Again, with few exceptions, you're not going to get much past their rookie contract, nor as we saw with Miller does it often makes sense to pay a running back a huge contract once they hit free agency.

A linebacker, a very good one? Yes, you spend money on that position. Just like we did with Zach Thomas, like the Ravens did with Ray Lewis, Carolina now has Keuchly, it's a harder position to find the great ones and they are largely worth keeping. Hell, we don't have ONE great linebacker let alone 3.

white1

Posts : 1329
Join date : 2015-04-08

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Keep a close eye on Myles Jack in the draft

Post by JMP on Mon Apr 25, 2016 1:55 pm

Jack at 13 is very tempting, no doubt about it.  I just don't know that the Miami Dolphins are in a position to use a top 15 pick on a player with a very questionable knee injury.  If it was the Panthers or Broncos, or even the Patriots or Packers, I'd praise the pick - because even if Jack never plays a down, those organizations are in good/great shape for the near future.  But the Dolphins?  This is a team that needs to get as close to a sure thing as possible, not a risk.

It's a tough call...I really like the player, just not sure the risk makes sense for the Phins.

JMP
Admin

Posts : 3594
Join date : 2015-04-07
Age : 45

View user profile http://dolfancave.forumotion.com

Back to top Go down

Re: Keep a close eye on Myles Jack in the draft

Post by white1 on Mon Apr 25, 2016 1:57 pm

Now this, this here.... umm no. I don't want to see THIS happen. Read at your own risk. Trade UP?!?!

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/dolphins_in_depth/2016/04/miami-dolphins-might-trade-back-up-for-at-least-two-players.html

white1

Posts : 1329
Join date : 2015-04-08

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Keep a close eye on Myles Jack in the draft

Post by Birdmond on Mon Apr 25, 2016 2:19 pm

I've stated before I have no problem giving up a third round pick to get Elliot. Prefer not to though. I think the Browns know Lynch will be available at 13 and are looking for a sucker.

Birdmond

Posts : 988
Join date : 2015-04-08

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Keep a close eye on Myles Jack in the draft

Post by JMP on Mon Apr 25, 2016 2:45 pm

With all the needs on this roster, I'd strongly prefer not to trade up.

JMP
Admin

Posts : 3594
Join date : 2015-04-07
Age : 45

View user profile http://dolfancave.forumotion.com

Back to top Go down

Re: Keep a close eye on Myles Jack in the draft

Post by white1 on Mon Apr 25, 2016 3:03 pm

Agreed.

If you're an analytics and/or statistics freak, past drafts should speak VOLUMES about the odds a given draft pick will pan out as envisioned.

Every fan thinks the first three rounds are full of starters, in reality the MINORITY turn into starters, the majority turn into career backups, special teams players or flat out busts.

Teams that think their draft board is so perfect, it merits spending a pick just to move up a few slots are delusional. That's not how to play the odds in what is a very, very unscientific process that is fraught with risk. Humans evaluating humans projecting from one sport to what is becoming a very different sport. Add subjective factors like character, motivation, work ethic - it is literally a can't win game you need to double down to have a chance at getting at least a few picks right.

white1

Posts : 1329
Join date : 2015-04-08

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Keep a close eye on Myles Jack in the draft

Post by white1 on Mon Apr 25, 2016 3:08 pm

One sample article talking about rates for draft picks panning out, bust vs starter.

In another article I read, in evaluating NFL teams over the long term NONE of them outpaced the margin for error in bust vs start percentage. If anyone did over even a few years, they would build a dominant squad.

http://datascopeanalytics.com/blog/the-chance-of-a-bust-in-the-nfl-draft/


white1

Posts : 1329
Join date : 2015-04-08

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Keep a close eye on Myles Jack in the draft

Post by Degarmo on Mon Apr 25, 2016 3:15 pm

Not that much has changed with the players they're talking about trading up for since they traded down . . . so why trade down in the first place if they were worried about nabbing them?  Do the Cleveland/Rams moves scare them?  There's no real plan, and the results should show that in the end.
avatar
Degarmo

Posts : 1176
Join date : 2015-04-07
Age : 49

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Keep a close eye on Myles Jack in the draft

Post by Degarmo on Mon Apr 25, 2016 3:17 pm

white1 wrote:Agreed.

If you're an analytics and/or statistics freak, past drafts should speak VOLUMES about the odds a given draft pick will pan out as envisioned.

Every fan thinks the first three rounds are full of starters, in reality the MINORITY turn into starters, the majority turn into career backups, special teams players or flat out busts.

Teams that think their draft board is so perfect, it merits spending a pick just to move up a few slots are delusional.  That's not how to play the odds in what is a very, very unscientific process that is fraught with risk.  Humans evaluating humans projecting from one sport to what is becoming a very different sport. Add subjective factors like character, motivation, work ethic - it is literally a can't win game you need to double down to have a chance at getting at least a few picks right.

This is so correct.

You need more picks to enhance your chances of hits, not rely on your oh-so-amazing talent evaluation, particularly when the one shopping has already failed on another team, and failed miserably to get a QB, which is the most-important position to be able to correctly evaluate.
avatar
Degarmo

Posts : 1176
Join date : 2015-04-07
Age : 49

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Keep a close eye on Myles Jack in the draft

Post by DolFan 316 on Mon Apr 25, 2016 4:26 pm

NO JACK AT 13!!! TRADE DOWN, NOT UP!!! I HAVE SPOKEN!!!

DolFan 316

Posts : 2331
Join date : 2015-04-07
Age : 44

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Keep a close eye on Myles Jack in the draft

Post by finfanatic on Mon Apr 25, 2016 4:29 pm

This scenario has Tannenbaum written ALL OVER IT IMHO though.

Trade down for two starters, then trade back up to get the RB to put the team over the top and win multiple SBs????

That is just so clever!!!

Some people just outsmart themselves I am thinking.

If Jerrah has his way, Elliot will be a Cowboy. They may point out to Jerrah though, how they had to talk him down off the Manziel ledge and how SMART NOT PICKING Johnny "Not Playing Football" is looking nowadays. So, they go for Bosa I am thinking.  

I really doubt Elliot makes it past Fox in Chicago at #11.

So, if Tannenbaum wants Elliot, he is going to have to get back to #10 (or above I am thinking.)

Jack....any time someone starts talking "injured knee" in the draft for the Phins, I get the Yatil Green-fever and start to hyperventilate and get nauseous.

Include me with JMP and say "Please, Mr. Tannenbaum, sir, pick another player, sir. Please sir."

finfanatic

Posts : 296
Join date : 2015-09-05

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Keep a close eye on Myles Jack in the draft

Post by Birdmond on Mon Apr 25, 2016 4:37 pm

finfanatic wrote:This scenario has Tannenbaum written ALL OVER IT IMHO though.

Trade down for two starters, then trade back up to get the RB to put the team over the top and win multiple SBs????

That is just so clever!!!

Some people just outsmart themselves I am thinking.

If Jerrah has his way, Elliot will be a Cowboy. They may point out to Jerrah though, how they had to talk him down off the Manziel ledge and how SMART NOT PICKING Johnny "Not Playing Football" is looking nowadays. So, they go for Bosa I am thinking.  

I really doubt Elliot makes it past Fox in Chicago at #11.

So, if Tannenbaum wants Elliot, he is going to have to get back to #10 (or above I am thinking.)

Jack....any time someone starts talking "injured knee" in the draft for the Phins, I get the Yatil Green-fever and start to hyperventilate and get nauseous.

Include me with JMP and say "Please, Mr. Tannenbaum, sir, pick another player, sir. Please sir."

But what if Alonzo and Maxwell are solid starters ? And let's say we trade a 3rd for Elliot? So you get three starters for a first and third round pick. And BTW, I believe Zeke is a pro bowl player year one. That's solid considering only 27% of first round picks become starters.

Birdmond

Posts : 988
Join date : 2015-04-08

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Keep a close eye on Myles Jack in the draft

Post by DolFan 316 on Mon Apr 25, 2016 5:15 pm

Birdmond wrote:But what if Alonzo and Maxwell are solid starters ?   And let's say we trade a 3rd for Elliot?  So you get three starters for a first and third round pick.  And BTW, I believe Zeke is a pro bowl player year one.  That's solid considering only 27% of first round picks become starters.

WELL...I suppose if Lamar Miller could average 4.5 yards a carry behind this sieve of an O-line, a REAL RB like Elliott could do better scratch After all, that Miller guy was such a bum they just let him walk Wink

DolFan 316

Posts : 2331
Join date : 2015-04-07
Age : 44

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Keep a close eye on Myles Jack in the draft

Post by white1 on Tue Apr 26, 2016 7:45 am

I just picked up Nawrocki's draft guide. Very interesting to see how the objective rankings playout.

A couple interesting things I picked up:

Offensive linemen are actually deepest at the top end. Four or five players ranked as certain should-be first round picks. One of them is a guard.

After Ramsey and Hargreaves, HUGE dropoff in talent at CB. In fact, if we take a corner other than those in round one it is a big reach, and we are likely getting a second round talent at #13. Not good value at all. Apple sounds like a total bust to me.

Jack and Smith are good value at linebacker, but after that it's down to second round talent outside Ragland.

Elliott is a valid first round talent, and is projected to make a big NFL impact. No other back in this draft is close, might as well wait to a later round because they will probably all be a "reach" earlier.

All in all, I am still a big advocate of trading down in this draft. There are probably less than ten sure fire first round talents available in this draft, the rest all have some measure of risk. Much better to move back and pick up as many 2nd and 3rds as you can.


white1

Posts : 1329
Join date : 2015-04-08

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Keep a close eye on Myles Jack in the draft

Post by mercury22nathan on Tue Apr 26, 2016 9:23 am

so, in remembering that this the silly season and you can't believe anything you hear regarding team's draft plans, i've got to wonder if this is all a smoke screen. or perhaps Tannenbaum is the dumbest GM in the league in allowing his true intentions to be revealed (which i guess could be a real possibility).

so why would Miami let it be know that they would be willing to trade up for either Elliott or Jack? perhaps to bluff some other teams into moving up to grab either one or induce teams already above them to pick the two. so then that would mean the Phins have their eye on someone else that they hope to make fall. but who could that be?

well, there has been a lot of talk of the Phins being fine with their corners (which again, they are either lying or stupid - or maybe both). but then there has also been an undercurrent of talk that the Phins are only interested in big, tall corners. another smoke screen?

that seals it, the Phins want Vernon Hargreaves.

mercury22nathan

Posts : 520
Join date : 2015-04-13

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Keep a close eye on Myles Jack in the draft

Post by Birdmond on Tue Apr 26, 2016 10:00 am

mercury22nathan wrote:so, in remembering that this the silly season and you can't believe anything you hear regarding team's draft plans, i've got to wonder if this is all a smoke screen. or perhaps Tannenbaum is the dumbest GM in the league in allowing his true intentions to be revealed (which i guess could be a real possibility).

so why would Miami let it be know that they would be willing to trade up for either Elliott or Jack? perhaps to bluff some other teams into moving up to grab either one or induce teams already above them to pick the two. so then that would mean the Phins have their eye on someone else that they hope to make fall. but who could that be?

well, there has been a lot of talk of the Phins being fine with their corners (which again, they are either lying or stupid - or maybe both). but then there has also been an undercurrent of talk that the Phins are only interested in big, tall corners. another smoke screen?

that seals it, the Phins want Vernon Hargreaves.


I'll be curious to see how the draft correlates to the official visits and workouts. For instance, there has been zero Ragland interest but what if they learned everything they need to know at the Senior Bowl? But really from what I've read the first round visitors have been Elliot, Jack , Hargreaves, Apple, Alexander, Dodd, Lawson and Treadwell. Oh and William Jackson. I can't think of anyone else who is top 15 worthy who has visited. Am I missing anyone? So I'm really not expecting any surprises.

Birdmond

Posts : 988
Join date : 2015-04-08

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Keep a close eye on Myles Jack in the draft

Post by rightchea on Tue Apr 26, 2016 10:01 am

well this popped up on my bleacherreport.com.....

armando Salguero wrote:There are at least two players the Miami Dolphins will consider trading up for in the NFL draft later this week, per multiple sources -- Ohio State running back Ezekiel Elliott and UCLA linebacker Myles Jack.

The Dolphins would love if either or both Myles and/or Elliott are available when they pick at No. 13 overall. But the chances of this happening are against the Dolphins because both players are coveted by teams scheduled to draft ahead of Miami. So the Dolphins are apparently studying scenarios where they might move up to select one of the players.

And this is interesting for multiple reasons ...

Firstly, you'll recall the Dolphins traded down from No. 8 overall weeks ago. They exchanged picks with the Philadelphia Eagles, who originally held the No. 13 pick, in exchange for cornerback Byron Maxwell and linebacker Kiko Alonso.

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/dolphins_in_depth/2016/04/miami-dolphins-might-trade-back-up-for-at-least-two-players.html

If this happen I will not watch a fins game.

rightchea

Posts : 1264
Join date : 2015-04-28
Age : 32

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Keep a close eye on Myles Jack in the draft

Post by Birdmond on Tue Apr 26, 2016 10:04 am

rightchea wrote:well this popped up on my bleacherreport.com.....

armando Salguero wrote:There are at least two players the Miami Dolphins will consider trading up for in the NFL draft later this week, per multiple sources -- Ohio State running back Ezekiel Elliott and UCLA linebacker Myles Jack.

The Dolphins would love if either or both Myles and/or Elliott are available when they pick at No. 13 overall. But the chances of this happening are against the Dolphins because both players are coveted by teams scheduled to draft ahead of Miami. So the Dolphins are apparently studying scenarios where they might move up to select one of the players.

And this is interesting for multiple reasons ...

Firstly, you'll recall the Dolphins traded down from No. 8 overall weeks ago. They exchanged picks with the Philadelphia Eagles, who originally held the No. 13 pick, in exchange for cornerback Byron Maxwell and linebacker Kiko Alonso.

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/dolphins_in_depth/2016/04/miami-dolphins-might-trade-back-up-for-at-least-two-players.html

If this happen I will not watch a fins game.

Yes you will. You're hooked.

Birdmond

Posts : 988
Join date : 2015-04-08

View user profile

Back to top Go down

Re: Keep a close eye on Myles Jack in the draft

Post by Sponsored content


Sponsored content


Back to top Go down

Page 1 of 2 1, 2  Next

View previous topic View next topic Back to top

- Similar topics

 
Permissions in this forum:
You cannot reply to topics in this forum