Keys to success

Every year we draft a new batch of players. Some are good some become fodder for our posts. My keys to a successful draft.

1. Impact. Can the player win vs the competition
2. Longevity is the player going to fill a role on the team for years to come? Drafting the same position over and over kills the building process.
3 Durability a player can't help you win if he's injured
4. Size. You can't coach size. Bigger players tend to have an advantage
5 speed as JJ said, speed kills!

These are the 5 keys I would base my draft board on. It's similar to a moneyball strategy. Lineman tend to have longer careers in the NFL than many of the other positions. One of the reasons they are always near the top of the draft. QB's, impact and longevity. A top shelf QB will fill the position for over a decade allowing you to draft a different position. Durability matters. See our receivers.
Miami tried to go smaller more athletic on the offensive line only to get dominated for the past 15 years. Our rebuild process brought in larger body players last year. I believe Hunt was our best pick last year. The type of player you can count on for a decade.

Smith's smaller size might move him down the draft board. If I have similar grades on speed and ability I take the larger player.

Great post.  I'm on board with most of your points, but disagree about point 4 - size.  I think it depends on the position.  

These days, smaller LBs like Devin White and Darius Leonard are dominating.  Aaron Donald is the best defensive player in the NFL, and he's a 6'1", 280 pound DT.  Budda Baker and Antoine Winfield Jr. are rising stars in the secondary.  And on offense, QBs like Wilson, Murray and Jackson are having high levels of success, while guys like Diggs, Hill, Jefferson, Lockett, etc. are tearing up the league at WR.  

The league has changed.  It's no longer about being the biggest and strongest.

i take FOOTBALL PLAYERS period. guys who did it. guys who performed on the field. otherwise, you miss out on guys like Zach Thomas.

mercury22nathan wrote:i take FOOTBALL PLAYERS period.  guys who did it.  guys who performed on the field.  otherwise, you miss out on guys like Zach Thomas.

Absolutely. In the NFL, athletes are nice - but football players are better. As they say - you can have the body of Tarzan, but if you play like Jane what does it matter?

Yeah, but I have seen guys who dominate in college, stink in the Pros.

When you get in the league that is the top tenth of all college players and the level of competition is MUCH GREATER at every position, than you faced in college, some guys just cannot adjust. The game is too fast for them or they wilt under the level of competition. Ryan Leaf anyone?

The players are bigger, faster, the holes are smaller to run through, the windows to throw are much smaller, and those throws you could whip past a defender in college are now being picked off or at least tipped.

If there was a formula, someone would have found it by now. Even good GMs are batting a little over 50% in the first round.

You have to be able to PROJECT what a player did in college into the Pros. That is as close to divination and clairvoyance as it gets IMHO.

I'd prefer high football IQ with drive and talent. Doesn't have to be the best specimen, but smart. Can't be a dud either, but intelligent, good scheme fit, motivated, proper attitude are all paramount to me.

finfanatic wrote:Yeah, but I  have seen guys who dominate in college, stink in the Pros.

When you get in the league that is the top tenth of all college players and the level of competition is MUCH GREATER at every position, than you faced in college, some guys just cannot adjust. The game is too fast for them or they wilt under the level of competition. Ryan Leaf anyone?

The players are bigger, faster, the holes are smaller to run through, the windows to throw are much smaller, and those throws you could whip past a defender in college are now being picked off or at least tipped.

If there was a formula, someone would have found it by now. Even good GMs are batting a little over 50% in the first round.

You have to be able to PROJECT what a player did in college into the Pros. That is as close to divination and clairvoyance as it gets IMHO.

Oh absolutely - a great football player could bust in the NFL, and a great athlete could dominate in the NFL. It's all a crapshoot. But all things being equal, I want the guy that's done it before - even if it is at a lower level. It's easier to project a DE having a successful NFL career after having 40 career sacks at Bumfuck U. than it is a DE that had 5 career sacks at Scumbag College. But the Scumbag could very well end up being the better player. So much depends on off-field stuff too - how smart is the player, how hard does he work/train, how stable is his personal life, etc. And then - can the NFL coaching staff get the most out of him? Is the scheme a good fit? And even if everything checks out positively, the dude could have a career-ending injury at any point! So many variables to consider...

Loved Thomas but him and the rest of the defense would get rolled every time we played a team with a big line. Stopping the run has been Miami's Achilles heel.

Very true.  They sure never got any help from the offense though.