Waddle's value

The Dolphins are expected to try to sign wide receiver Jaylen Waddle to a contract extension, and the potential price of that extension came more into focus Monday when Philadelphia gave receiver DeVonta Smith a three-year, $75 million extension that includes $51 million guaranteed.

Waddle and Smith, former teammates at Alabama, were both selected in the top 10 picks of the 2021 Draft.

Waddle’s career numbers: 251 catches, 3,385 yards, 13.5 per reception and 18 touchdowns.

Smith’s career numbers: 240 receptions, 3,178 yards, 13.2 per reception, 19 touchdowns.

If the Dolphins don’t strike a long-term deal with Waddle and/or fellow 2021 first-round draft pick Jaelan Phillips in the next few weeks, Miami assuredly will exercise the fifth-year option on both players by the May 2 deadline for 2021 first-round picks.

Exercising that option would guaranteed Waddle $15.6 million in 2025 and would guarantee Phillips $13.3 million in 2025.

For the 2024 season, Waddle is set to earn $1.1 million with $3.3 million in roster bonuses.

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/nfl/miami-dolphins/article287065630.html

Waddle for $25Mish per year? or let him play out year 4 and 5 at $15.6M and then see? he's not gonna get any cheaper and if there is no inclination to ever sign him long term ($25M!!!!) then would now be the time to look at trading him to get something?

I don't want to pay Waddle that much, but I also wouldn't trade him this season. Now, if a rookie WR steps in and passes Waddle on the depth chart (which isn't gonna happen), or if the Dolphins end up having a really bad season (which also isn't gonna happen), then sure - trade away. But if we're fighting for playoff positioning by the trade deadline, there's no way Waddle is going anywhere.

If the Phins don't want to pay him, then the 5th year option probably makes the most sense.

Tough call.

I don't know if Waddle is worth $25 mill, but how much is not having Waddle or a solid #2 going to impact Hill and the offense?

$25 mill per season to keep Waddle might be cheap?

I really hope the Phins come out of the draft with a WR that we can all legitimately argue about them replacing Waddle and/or Hill maybe?

Ain't likely to happen, but it needs to IMO.

If Waddle walks while DeVonta Smith is kept, then it proves I was right all along in wanting Smith over Waddle 3 years ago. Sometimes it pays off playing the long game

Oh wait, why would I be bragging about this?      

But seriously, why can other teams retain their picks and this team can't?

DolFan 316 wrote:If Waddle walks while DeVonta Smith is kept, then it proves I was right all along in wanting Smith over Waddle 3 years ago. Sometimes it pays off playing the long game

Oh wait, why would I be bragging about this?      

But seriously, why can other teams retain their picks and this team can't?

Huh? How does Smith's deal make you right? It seems like you're assuming that if the Phins had drafted Smith, they would have given him a second contract. I think that's incorrect. If the Phins do let Waddle walk, IMO they would have done the same with Smith. Nothing about Smith's new contract indicates that he would have been the "right" pick for the Dolphins.

The Dolphins can retain their own draft picks - they just don't want to overpay to retain them. For example, Wilkins and Hunt never made a Pro Bowl or earned All Pro honors, yet their new teams paid them as if they were at the top of their respective positions. That's all fine and well, but the Dolphins didn't want to reset the market with players that - as much as I like them - really haven't earned top billing. It's pretty clear that Grier has set values on players - and won't budge on those values. I'm fine with that, as long as we get some form of compensation for losing our top free agents. In this case I'm happy with getting two 3rds for losing Wilkins and Hunt, and saving cap space in the process.

DolFan 316 wrote:But seriously, why can other teams retain their picks and this team can't?

i'm gonna assume this is a rhetorical question and you know very well why. cause they spend most of their salary cap on non-drafted talent so that when a drafted guy turns out to be good, really good, they can no longer afford him.

JMP wrote:The Dolphins can retain their own draft picks - they just don't want to overpay to retain them.  For example, Wilkins and Hunt never made a Pro Bowl or earned All Pro honors, yet their new teams paid them as if they were at the top of their respective positions.  That's all fine and well, but the Dolphins didn't want to reset the market with players that - as much as I like them - really haven't earned top billing.  It's pretty clear that Grier has set values on players - and won't budge on those values.  I'm fine with that, as long as we get some form of compensation for losing our top free agents.  In this case I'm happy with getting two 3rds for losing Wilkins and Hunt, and saving cap space in the process.

and that is certainly one way to approach the business. but that model can only work if they continue to draft (or sign) cheaper players that equal or exceed the departing talent. otherwise, they team just gets worse and worse. and so far, it is questionable as to whether or not they have done so.

what is the point of drafting guys that turn out to be at the top end of the positions if don't ever keep them? or are able to replace them with with guys that are just as good or better?

mercury22nathan wrote:i'm gonna assume this is a rhetorical question and you know very well why.  cause they spend most of their salary cap on non-drafted talent so that when a drafted guy turns out to be good, really good, they can no longer afford him.

But the're hardly the only team doing this. I'd say at least half the other teams do if not more. But it sure does seem like the Fins are worse than every team when it comes to retaining drafted talent. And it's not as if we're talking about dozens of picks who work out and they can't re-sign everybody, it's barely a handful! We're talking four guys from the last 3 drafts, counting Achane. It really is baffling, befuddling and bewildering

mercury22nathan wrote:

JMP wrote:The Dolphins can retain their own draft picks - they just don't want to overpay to retain them.  For example, Wilkins and Hunt never made a Pro Bowl or earned All Pro honors, yet their new teams paid them as if they were at the top of their respective positions.  That's all fine and well, but the Dolphins didn't want to reset the market with players that - as much as I like them - really haven't earned top billing.  It's pretty clear that Grier has set values on players - and won't budge on those values.  I'm fine with that, as long as we get some form of compensation for losing our top free agents.  In this case I'm happy with getting two 3rds for losing Wilkins and Hunt, and saving cap space in the process.

and that is certainly one way to approach the business.  but that model can only work if they continue to draft (or sign) cheaper players that equal or exceed the departing talent.  otherwise, they team just gets worse and worse.  and so far, it is questionable as to whether or not they have done so.

what is the point of drafting guys that turn out to be at the top end of the positions if don't ever keep them?  or are able to replace them with with guys that are just as good or better?

I totally get not wanting to pay Wilkins or Hunt top 5 at their position money. That's just the modern NFL for you. But what burns my boxers is not even TRYING to retain AVG for 2 years at $10 mil per. He was the best front seven defensive playmaker this team's had since JT and they couldn't afford him yet this same team could sign half a dozen DTs???

Here is the new Smith contract BTW. Doesn't seem *that* expensive to me...

https://overthecap.com/player/devonta-smith/9474

I refuse to believe Waddle would demand much more than this and at any rate by the time any new deal for him started getting a little expensive Tyreek's contract would be off the books, there's no way he'll be around beyond 2025.

https://overthecap.com/player/tyreek-hill/4878

To provide a little more context for the Waddle discussion. Smith’s contract just made him the 4th highest paid WR in the league – equal with his teammate Brown, but with more guaranteed cash.

Hill $30
Adams $28
Kupp $26.7
Smith $25
Brown $25
Metcalf $24
Samuel $23.9
Pittman $23.3
McLaurin $23.2
Ridley $23

https://overthecap.com/position/wide-receiver

Smith won’t be 4th for long as both CeeDee Lamb (skipping workouts) and Justin Jefferson are looking for new long-term deals.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39948156/source-cowboys-ceedee-lamb-likely-skip-offseason-program

Considering the salary cap increase, I suspect both these guys will reset the WR market above Hill’s contract (the Jefferson deal has been talked about somewhere north of $36). And Diggs is gambling on himself to do the same in the next FA period (he’s currently 11th with $22.5. And then when Ja’marr Chase (who is on the same draft class as Waddle and Smith) gets his deal, it’ll probably fall close (if not above) both Lamb and Jefferson.

By that time, $25M for Waddle (and Smith) might seem like a bargain. If the Dolphins wait, they may have to pay somewhere in the neighborhood of $28-$31 to keep Waddle.

I would think the Fins eventually will extend Waddle but maybe not in the short term.

My guess is there could be 1 year of overlap where we pay Hill and Waddle big $$$ at the same time. But, following that one season (or so) Waddle becomes our number one and we pickup another WR in the draft to pair with him (assuming we haven't developed a younger player by that time).

and that is certainly one way to approach the business. but that model can only work if they continue to draft (or sign) cheaper players that equal or exceed the departing talent. otherwise, they team just gets worse and worse. and so far, it is questionable as to whether or not they have done so.

what is the point of drafting guys that turn out to be at the top end of the positions if don't ever keep them? or are able to replace them with with guys that are just as good or better?

Excellent thoughts, merc, wanted to answer your post.

I would certainly prioritize all of these players ahead of Wilkins and Hunt:
- Waddle (ask Brady how much fun it is to play this game without at least one elite WR on the field)
- Holland (playmaking safety that can drastically impact opponent passing game).
- Phillips (pass rush another great way to impact opponent passing game).

Now, if we fail to retain one or all of these players, that's a huge strike on the team front office. And yes, they need to get to a spot where they lockup their elite players EARLY, like Philly just did with Smith.

Teams take a risk by extending guys early, but so does the player. At the time BEFORE it's obvious if these players are elite is the time to strike a below-market-deal in exchange for security in the form of guaranteed money. If you're just going to wait until free agents are pending, then you are going to pay market rate and fail to realize the value you can get if doing the deal a season earlier than you are comfortable.

While we are on this topic, the Tua deal may be trending this way. The Fins may want to see "one more season" of him in this offense. If he continues to improve like he has every season, it's likely they will just pay more than they would have this offseason. Again, it's okay to take some risk if you're able to get some value back in the form of a below-market deal...

mercury22nathan wrote:

JMP wrote:The Dolphins can retain their own draft picks - they just don't want to overpay to retain them.  For example, Wilkins and Hunt never made a Pro Bowl or earned All Pro honors, yet their new teams paid them as if they were at the top of their respective positions.  That's all fine and well, but the Dolphins didn't want to reset the market with players that - as much as I like them - really haven't earned top billing.  It's pretty clear that Grier has set values on players - and won't budge on those values.  I'm fine with that, as long as we get some form of compensation for losing our top free agents.  In this case I'm happy with getting two 3rds for losing Wilkins and Hunt, and saving cap space in the process.

and that is certainly one way to approach the business.  but that model can only work if they continue to draft (or sign) cheaper players that equal or exceed the departing talent.  otherwise, they team just gets worse and worse.  and so far, it is questionable as to whether or not they have done so.

what is the point of drafting guys that turn out to be at the top end of the positions if don't ever keep them?  or are able to replace them with with guys that are just as good or better?

Absolutely right - the key is to get to the point where you have young players in-house ready to step in for the departing free agents. The Dolphins aren't at that point yet, thanks to trades and getting picks taken away. But hopefully they're heading in that direction.

I don't think the Phins are against keeping their own players - they kept Jackson and will keep Tua, for example. I think it's all about value for them.

2021-2022 Waddle is absolutely worth a big extension. 2023 Waddle is not. I'd need to see a return to 2021-2022 form this year before I'd be willing to pony up.

DolFan 316 wrote:

I totally get not wanting to pay Wilkins or Hunt top 5 at their position money. That's just the modern NFL for you. But what burns my boxers is not even TRYING to retain AVG for 2 years at $10 mil per. He was the best front seven defensive playmaker this team's had since JT and they couldn't afford him yet this same team could sign half a dozen DTs???

We don't know that the Phins didn't try to keep AVG, but I also think you are over-rating him. The rest of the league clearly didn't value him highly, as he signed a very low deal for a pass rusher. You've got to remember that AVG was essentially a role player on the Dolphins - not an every-down player. He's not even close to "the best front 7 playmaker we've had since JT". I love the guy, but he's not exactly a top player in the league.

I'm very happy with Shaq Barrett replacing him as the the #3 edge rusher (when Chubb and Phillips are back) - I'd consider that an upgrade, and for less money.

HalCHorn wrote:2021-2022 Waddle is absolutely worth a big extension.  2023 Waddle is not.  I'd need to see a return to 2021-2022 form this year before I'd be willing to pony up.

This is probably the best way to view it. Completely agree.

JMP wrote:We don't know that the Phins didn't try to keep AVG, but I also think you are over-rating him.  The rest of the league clearly didn't value him highly, as he signed a very low deal for a pass rusher.  You've got to remember that AVG was essentially a role player on the Dolphins - not an every-down player.  He's not even close to "the best front 7 playmaker we've had since JT".  I love the guy, but he's not exactly a top player in the league.  

I'm very happy with Shaq Barrett replacing him as the the #3 edge rusher (when Chubb and Phillips are back) - I'd consider that an upgrade, and for less money.

Okay then, name one front seven player post-JT who made more impact plays than him. I'm not talking about just sacks or even just takeaways, I'm talking defensive scores, game-winning, tide-turning plays, etc.

Here's two--one I remember and one I forgot about. His fumble return score VS the Rams in 2020 was huge in a game that the Fins were outgained by a whopping 326 yards, the most ever in a win in team history.

https://stathead.com/tiny/l3Jm4

The other one was his blocked punt return score VS the Bears in '22. It's not a stretch to say that this was likely the biggest TD of the entire season considering how it turned out, and that without it that team misses the playoffs.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/V/VanGAn00/touchdowns/

In fact, AVG really does have the most TDs by a front seven player since JT retired (and is in the top ten all-time among Fins defenders, period).

https://stathead.com/tiny/QbKWN

Will a guy 2 years older have that kind of impact? IMO, no. Maybe not even close. We'll see.

Off the top of my head: Cam Wake, Christian Wilkins, Jerome Baker, Bradley Chubb, Emmanuel Ogbah, Zach Sieler, Jae Phillips. All are/were bigger impact players than AVG - and all were full-time starters, not just part-time role players.

Waddle is not Amon-Ra St. Brown, but as FYI St. Brown just got a new deal that averages over $30 million per year.

JMP wrote:Waddle is not Amon-Ra St. Brown, but as FYI St. Brown just got a new deal that averages over $30 million per year.

WOW

that just means Lamb and Jefferson are going to knock WR salaries into the stratosphere. has Miami already lost its chance to get Waddle signed to a reasonable deal?

Yep.

When you fart around and try to lowball players, the market will bite you in the arse and sometimes take a chunk big enough where you need an ambulance!!

Just asking frackin' dumbarse Jerry Jones!

He delayed paying Dak and now Dak has him by the nutz and ain't letting go!

Once Jefferson signs the market will be set and I doubt Waddle will sign for the cheaper contract the Phins are liable to offer. But as long as they can get a compensatory pick for losing him, it will be fine!!

If you're unable to trade the player, there's nothing wrong with getting a comp pick in return. The key is, you then have to find a way to replace the player...hopefully through the draft. Ideally you create a pipeline where you always have young players ready to replace the departing veterans...but that's an ideal that doesn't always work the way you want!