If The Season Ended Today..

The Fins would actually have the 6th overall pick, due to their strength of schedule being weaker than the five other 4-7 teams. Yes, even with the Pats on it twice. Somehow, that just makes this season seem even more pathetic than it's been.

http://www.thephinsider.com/2015/12/1/9826304/nfl-draft-order-2016-miami-creeping-toward-top-5-pick

If they want a top fiver, it's vitally important that they lose to the Ravens *and* Chargers. Winning even one of those games will keep them out. Winning another game in addition to that might drop them out of the top 10 altogether, because good LORD there are so many shitty teams this season  

(BTW remember that dreaded seven game stretch I kept talking about before the season? The one I said they'd be lucky to win more than once in? Well, the Ravens game wraps it up and they've had...two wins in that stretch. And they WERE lucky to beat the Eagles.)

Watch us win out now, miss the playoffs, and end up with the 18th pick. At least that will make taking an offensive lineman palatable.

Degarmo wrote:Watch us win out now, miss the playoffs, and end up with the 18th pick.  At least that will make taking an offensive lineman palatable.

The sad part is, this actually happened before. Remember that cute little win streak after the 3-7 start in '05? Got them the 16th pick, which they used to take...Jason Allen. Yeah.

The ONLY benefit of that season ending 6-game win streak was to be the last thing my DolFan granddad experienced from this team before he died. That's it.

i get what you are saying, but i an not convinced that draft order really makes a difference to this team (or in general). i mean look at what the Phins have done with their top 5 picks anyways (Dion Jordan, Ronnie Brown, Jake Long over Matt Ryan). teams like the Redskins, Rams, Lions constantly pick in the top 5 and it certainly doesn't seem to have helped them. while New England's annually low drafts picks doesn't seem to hurt. the key is not where you pick, but rather who you pick and how you utilize that player. there is all-pro talent sprinkled throughout the first several rounds - not just at the top. one might think that having a top 5 pick gives a better chance to land meaningful talent, but there is just as much or more of a chance to select a bust than a pro-bowler.

go back and look at the 2012 draft. other Andrew Luck at no. 1, tell me who in the top 8 you would now select over Luke Kuechly? there are several players at 10 and below that should have been selected before most all of the top 10 guys. its usually the same case in most every draft.

i'd be more of an advocate of trying to acquire more picks throughout the draft to increase the odds of finding talent (assuming Miami had a capable talent evaluator). now, if that meant getting a top 5 pick in order to trade back a few spots (not too many) and pick up another 1st rounder, then i am on board. or perhaps trading away a veteran or two to pick up some draft picks - so be it.

What m22n says is exactly accurate IMO.

It is not WHERE you draft so much as WHO you draft.

And, I will add this caveat; it is equally important that you understand the draft and know WHEN you should draft a player.

Couple that with the fact, that unless the guy is a complete bustola, with good coaching and some developmental time, certain coaches know how to get the most out a player, no matter where he has been drafted.

Not only were the Phins LUCKY to beat the Eagles, IMHO, the Redskins win was LUCKY as well. Jarvis Landry takes a punt right up the middle and is untouched??? And there was no holding or block in the back called with the lamebrains that play on the Phins special teams???

Extremely luck IMO.

mercury22nathan wrote: the key is not where you pick, but rather who you pick and how you utilize that player.

100% correct - but, if you are looking for a QB or LT, you ideally do want to be in the top 5 IMO...the talent level at those positions really drops off after the early 1st round. You can get extremely lucky with a Russell Wilson or Tom Brady later in the draft, but more often that not if you want a top QB or LT you need to take him early.

But yeah, it's all about picking the right players...and "right" doesn't just mean good character and good measureables. I think the most important factor is how the player fits your scheme...in other words, don't draft a 3-4 OLB and expect to turn him into a 4-3 DE.

I think the Phins should also look at players from bigger, more successful programs that are more likely to contribute right away. We're a team that can't afford to wait three years for a small-school project to develop...we need help immediately.

And as I've said elsewhere - I think the Phins need to go BPA for at least the first 3 rounds. The key to making this team better is acquiring talent. And let's be honest, pretty much every position on this team is a need anyway, so there will be a marriage between BPA and need regardless.

finfanatic wrote:

Not only were the Phins LUCKY to beat the Eagles, IMHO, the Redskins win was LUCKY as well. Jarvis Landry takes a punt right up the middle and is untouched??? And there was no holding or block in the back called with the lamebrains that play on the Phins special teams???

Extremely luck IMO.

Yep. If the Eagles had any other QB besides Mark Sanchez on that last drive, they win. They were already in range to kick the game-winning FG...all they had to do was protect the ball. But Sanchez threw that awful endzone INT and handed the game to the Phins.

And the Landry return against Washington was an absolute gift. The Dolphins did absolutely nothing on offense or defense in that game to deserve a win.

Drafting for need instead of simply taking the BPA has been killing this team all the way back to the JJ Era--remember his last draft, when he traded down 3 times and then blew 3 picks on RB's?  Turns out the best thing he could have done was let Wheatley (obtained for a 7th!) and KAJ compete.

Ju'Wuan James was strictly a 'need' pick, but honestly, wasn't Bridgewater the best player on the board?  

Jonathan Martin was a "need" pick too.  Jeff Allen was the top-rated O-lineman on the board, but we "needed" a tackle worse than a guard.  How'd that work out?  

Ireland moved up from 12 to 4 "needing" a D-lineman.  If he'd stayed put, Sheldon Richardson would have been the top one on the board.  Yeah, he got a 4-game suspension.  He's still been available quite a bit more often than Mr. Jordan has. And, we'd have had two second round picks instead of just one.

Just take the BPA, dammit!  Lack of long-term thinking is just absolutely killing us.  Of course, it is a result of all the half-measures that date back 15 years.  Either the GM or coach needs to "win now" and that looms over every decision.

HalCHorn wrote:

Ju'Wuan James was strictly a 'need' pick, but honestly, wasn't Bridgewater the best player on the board?  

That James pick will forever piss me off. Sure, he's a good player...but he's a RT, and even with him our line still sucks. Certainly we could have taken Bridgewater, who looks like he's going to be MUCH better than Tannehill. And there were plenty of other players: Brandin Cooks (which would mean we wouldn't have had to trade a 3rd for Stills), Ha Ha Clinton-Dix (think we could use a safety like that right about now??), Kelvin Benjamin (injured now, but he would easily be our #1 receiver)...and yes, even Derek Carr - who also looks like he's going to be better than Tannehill.

HalCHorn wrote:Ireland moved up from 12 to 4 "needing" a D-lineman.  If he'd stayed put, Sheldon Richardson would have been the top one on the board.  Yeah, he got a 4-game suspension.  He's still been available quite a bit more often than Mr. Jordan has.  And, we'd have had two second round picks instead of just one.

Just take the BPA, dammit!  Lack of long-term thinking is just absolutely killing us.  Of course, it is a result of all the half-measures that date back 15 years.  Either the GM or coach needs to "win now" and that looms over every decision.

Yes, I am thinking if they had gotten Richardson, there would have been no need to go out and pay Suh all the loot they did. SIGH.

Heck I was positive Ireland was moving up to draft Lane Johnson!!!! Which would have meant no need to pick James the next year, which would have meant....

AIIIIIEEEEEEE!

Anyway, we all agree...the Phins front office has been run like it is staffed by drunken monkeys for years.

Maybe Ross should go out and hire Marlin Perkins, Jim Fowler, or Jack Hannah to run the organization???

And yeah yeah...I know Marlin has passed, but heck, I think even dead he could do as good a job as the Drunken Monkey Clan!

You nailed it, FF. Failures in the draft have caused the Phins to overspend in free agency. It's a constant scramble to fill holes that were created by incompetence, and all that scrambling only serves to create more holes. And that's how we got into this endless cycle of mediocrity. It all starts with the draft IMO. Start drafting smart, and things will start to get better (of course, we need the GM and coaches as well...like I said, it's EVERYTHING...)

That's what happens when the FO/Coaching staff are constantly in "win now mode". No one has the job security to project 2 to 3 years down the road and have a long-term rebuilding plan. Because they know, if they do not get results quickly, they will be gone. I guess it might be different if we got a high-profile coach (Sean Payton?) who has some type of proven resume' that could allow a couple down years while putting his "plan" into action. Everyone else we have had was in complete CYA (quick fix) mode after year 2.

(Pokes head in.) Damn good thread, guys. I have nothing more to add for once. (Pops back out.)