salary cap implications in 2018

without a game this week, there isn't much current Phins news to discuss, but i did find this interesting. 4 players who are almost virtual locks to be in a Miami uniform next season:

Miami’s cap hits for Kiko Alonso, Ndamukong Suh, Reshad Jones and Andre Branch are higher if they’re not on the team than if they are on the team.

http://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/barry-jackson/article171718682.html

and then conversely, players who very well may not be...

Byron Maxwell. He has a $10 million hit in 2018 if he’s on the team and no cap hit if he’s not. Unless he’s a Pro Bowler, he’s unlikely to return, certainly not under his existing contract.

Tight end Julius Thomas. He has a $6.6 million 2018 cap hit if he’s on the team next season, no hit if he’s not. So if this doesn’t work out this season, he’s gone.

Right tackle Ja’Wuan James. He a $9.3 million 2018 cap hit if he’s on the team next season, nothing if he’s not. So if James is merely average this season, a release or restructure is likely.

Center Mike Pouncey has a $9 million 2018 hit if he’s on the team then, $2 million if he’s not. So he can’t again miss significant time with injury if he expects a long-term future here.

Defensive end Cam Wake. He has an $8.6 million 2018 hit if he’s on the team next season, just $500,000 if he’s not. So if his play declines dramatically, he’s a likely cap casualty.

perhaps this year's 1st round pick Harris can develop to replace Wake or maybe Wake can continue to defy the odds and age to perform at a high level, but how many of those other potential departures have potential starting-level successors already on the team being groomed to step up? i can't think of one. could 2018 be setting up to be even worse than we expect 2017 to be? and this doesn't even take into account Tannehill's knee and the possibility that Cutler may return to retirement. welcome to a Tannenbaum run team - no future, just big bucks to mid-level FAs.

The elephant in the room is Tannehill's contract and how easily he could be released after this season.

Maxwell's gone and even he knows it. I'm amazed he's still around, actually.

Thomas and james would be no catastrophic losses unto themselves, except of course that this team has an uncanny knack for completely failing to replace even mediocre players who leave.

I've grown tired of Pouncey and am actually glad he can be let go next season. It's not as if he plays most of the games now anyway so I'm used to him not being there already.

Wake? I'll miss him and so will the team, but if he falls off a cliff like players his age tend to do then it's for the best.

Suh's contract is a ginormous albatross that I never would've approved if I was GM.

Here's a link BTW detailing the Fins' cap situation for the next few years.

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/miami-dolphins

Tankersley had a great preseason and will surely replace Maxwell. $10 million savings right there.

Julius Thomas? He stays ONLY if he plays lights out this season. If not, either draft a TE or grab a journeyman in free agency. Either way, will be much cheaper and we will save a chunk of that pending $6.6 million.

JaWuan James is a goner. I see no reason to believe he suddenly gets consistent. Draft a RT or pickup a mid tier free agent starter. Who cares. RT is not a premium position on the line. We save a lot off that 9.3 million.

Pouncey, if he stays healthy, probably is on our roster but a contract restructure could be in order.

Wake could very well play out his contract because he continues to perform so well. If that changes, sure he could move on. I wouldn't bet against him, though.

James and Maxwell are gone after this season IMO. I don't see any way that either one stays.
--I'm hoping Eric Smith looks good enough to replace James. Huge cap savings there. Otherwise, it should't be difficult to find a comparable or better RT than James.
--I'm not sold on Tank at all, but he and Lippett will likely battle to take over for Maxwell.

I think Thomas will be a Phin in 2018.
--Gase loves Thomas, and unless he completely sucks this season he'll be back. The cap can handle the $6.6 million hit.

Wake probably stays, because I don't expect Harris to show anything this season.

Note sure at all about Pouncey - depends on his health. If he plays at least 13 games this season, I think he'll be back. But if he has another injury-plagued season, he could be a goner.

Man, that Suh contract is UGLY...can't cut ties till 2020. The Kiko contract sucks too, but at least we can cut him in 2019.

I really don't mind the Suh contract for a few reasons. I know it's really expensive, and DT is not the place to spend those dollars, but what's done is done. No way to change it.
Anyways:

- He does play at a really high level. Not enough to offset a totally lackluster surrounding cast, but I'm hoping this season we see much better defense across the board.
- The hit from the Suh contract actually gets relatively smaller every year, because the salary cap is ever increasing.
- Just look at some of the money being thrown around today. Did you see what Matt Stafford got? STAFFORD!!! I would feel a whole lot worse if we were paying a guy like Stafford that kind of money. At least Suh is elite.

Suh is a great player, but we've already seen that his presence really has no impact on how good or bad the defense is. His contract sucks, and the fact that we can't get out of it for years sucks. There's nothing we can do about it, but it still sucks. And if anything, I expect this year's defense to be even worse than last year's.

Stafford has put up some monster numbers in Detroit, and his last two seasons were arguably his best. I think he's a top 10 QB, firmly in the second tier of QBs, just under the elites (Rodgers/Brady/Brees/Ryan/Roethisberger). I have no problem with him getting that type of money, given the state of the QB position these days. Fact is, the Lions aren't going to find an upgrade to Stafford anywhere. He's a QB you can build around. The Lions' biggest problem right now is that their defense blows...Stafford isn't the issue.

I agree with DF316...the Phins have to (over)pay for mediocre talent because they are ASTOUNDINGLY INCAPABLE
of drafting replacements! I have not been thrilled with a draft by the Phins in a LONG TIME!!!

I agree with JMP - Gase loves Thomas. Thomas would have to totally blow chunks to not be on the team next season.

Suh - He does his job, but who in the heck thinks paying that much for a DT to occupy a double team is a good thing!! It's not like Suh has been THE REASON the defense has excelled, is it?

W1 - I doubt you can compare other positions to the QB Market. With he way the rules have changed to make the passing offense the primary focus of the game, having a QB who is better than middle of the pack is WORTH WHATEVER you have to pay. Because without that QB, everything else on your team can be top notch and the team will still struggle to even make the playoffs IMO.

I am expecting the team to have a very different look next year.

finfanatic wrote:I am expecting the team to have a very different look next year.

I sure hope so. It's a very boring, lackluster team for the most part - especially on defense. On offense, we have Landry and Ajayi - and (hopefully) Parker - to bring a little excitement. But on defense there's really no one - Suh, Wake and Jones are great players, but they don't have the attitude and swagger that guys like Zach, JT and Madison had back in the day.

Man, I miss those teams from the '90s. As gut-wrenching as it was, it was also a lot of fun and I legitimately liked the whole team (well, except Fiedler...). I haven't had fun watching the Phins in a LONG time.