Coaching predictions

Will this be Gase’s make or break year or will he be a deadman walking to start next season?

Ross will do what he always does--give the current coach an extension when it's obvious to everyone else he needs to go, then fire him in the middle of the next season.

Seriously, Sparano was extended by Ross in Year 3, and fired before year 4 was done. Philbin was extended by Ross at the end of Year 3, and fired four games into Year 4. Gase is now in year 3.

And here's the scary part--unless Gase can somehow drag this team to at least 8 wins this season, he'll have the same or worse 3-year record than Philbin! No, really. Philbin had just one fewer win than Gase his first two years.

It’s year 3. The players either get with the program or the program gets changed. Watching the putrid play on defense I say the program gets changed. Nobody is buying into coaching.

There's always been a point in each coach's tenure since 2000 where you can tell no one is buying in.

For Wanny, it was the middle of the 2002 season, when it became obvious that in protecting Jay, he had made sure we had no Plan B if/when Fiedler got hurt. The point of no return was at Minnesota in game 15 that year, with home field advantage still a solid possibility, when everyone realized that Wanny had such little faith in his chosen annointed QB that he would only let him throw 21 times against the league's worst pass defense. The season was blown at New England the following week, and I never felt anyone was buying in ever again.

For Sparano it was late in year two, when it became obvious the wildcat had run its course but we still persisted in running it. Also, it was obvious Parcells was about to leave.

For Philbin it was Bullygate. Though I think there was a suspicion that he was in over his head from Day One thanks to Hard Knocks.

And for Gase, it was the Ajayi trade. 14-9 before, 2-7 after. Trading a guy that valuable for practically nothing was the curtain being pulled back in Wizard of Oz.

I'd love to be wrong, but I'm just not seeing enough talent here to improve on last year's record. There's also a distinct lack of ingenuity in the play calling and use of personnel on both sides of the ball.

Last years big success turnaround was the Rams. Players bought in to the program. It was an immediate change. You can immediately tell when a team is headed in the right direction. Haven't seen that in a long time. Miami needs to change it's mascot from the Dolphin to the Flounder

I'm really torn on this one.  

Gase has been handed a flawed roster day 1, and it's still flawed in several key areas.  

I do agree he had a big hand in ousting Ajayi.  I don't really know if that helped us or hurt us.  I like the backs we have on the roster right now.

Our DTs are straight trash and the Suh signing was a huge mistake.  Hard to recover from that.  Also, the Alonso signing in retrospect was really bad especially since we moved him from MLB to WLB and he instantly became a lesser player.

Meanwhile, at outside CB our slot CB turns out to be the best available since both Lippett and Tankersley are not playing at the level they should be.  Here again another highly compensated player is out of position, to cover for somebody else.

To me, this all screams poor drafting and you can't blame Gase and his coaching for all of this teams ills.

Burke seems overmatched and MAY improve with time (word is he's extremely smart), and IMO this is what comes with hiring a young head coach.  Can't always get the best and brightest coaches to join the squad, especially in year 1.

If I HAD to choose right now.... I'd much sooner axe Grier/Tannebaum because I think our drafting would instantly get better, which is what this team needs.  I would give Gase more time.

However, I would not be too torn up if Ross swept all 3 out of office in one move.  

Worse case scenario is only Gase gets fired.  That would be a terrible assessment of what made the team what it currently is.

One more thing to add: IF WE DO fire Gase, and fire him too early, IMO he will get another opportunity. And he will become a good head coach for somebody else. Maybe even great. We will watch him succeed with another team, just like Belichek.

If the Dolphins have a losing record this year, Gase has to go - period. I'd even be tempted to fire him if we go 9-7 and miss the playoffs. So far he's blamed the roster and coaches for his lack of success, but this year he has his coaching staff and his players....so all the excuses are gone. This is now his team, top to bottom, and if they fail it's all on him. We can't continue to tread water with a dead-end head coach that is clearly in over his head.

Personally, I don't think Gase will ever be a good head coach. He bitches and moans when things go wrong, he gets frustrated very easily, he can't handle outspoken players, he ignores the defense on game day, his teams are consistently unprepared, sloppy and lack discipline, and he has yet to figure out how to score points on offense. Now, maybe he changes this season and things get better...but it's very rare for coaches to change - they are usually set in their ways and do what they do year after year regardless of results. So I expect more of the same. And if we see the same sloppy unprepared team throughout this season, he needs to go.

Interesting JMP. Would you actually fire Gase and keep both Tannebaum and Grier? I just can't imagine that scenario.

A lot of what ails this team is lack of talent, IMO. Inferior players miss assignments, commit penalties, and are sloppy and unprepared because they don't work that hard. Coaching can only do so much.

For example, a Johnny Manzeil will NEVER pan out, regardless of the coach. He isn't "built" to put in the work necessary. That's an extreme example, but all the great players in the NFL get there by working their assess off. If you don't have enough.... you will have an average (or worse) roster.

white1 wrote:I'm really torn on this one.  

Gase has been handed a flawed roster day 1, and it's still flawed in several key areas.

Agreed, but he's contributed to making it flawed by getting rid of most of the best players because personality. If they were thuggin' it up that would be one thing, but Gase is getting rid of them because they're too much of a threat to his authority.   

I do agree he had a big hand in ousting Ajayi.  I don't really know if that helped us or hurt us.  I like the backs we have on the roster right now.

I'll put it this way, having Ajayi and Drake is better than just having Drake (who was injury-prone in college BTW, I think people have forgotten that).  

Meanwhile, at outside CB our slot CB turns out to be the best available since both Lippett and Tankersley are not playing at the level they should be.  Here again another highly compensated player is out of position, to cover for somebody else.

Lippett led this team in INTs two seasons ago. If he's regressed that's coaching-related, since I've not heard anything about him being lazy. And it's also ultimately Gase's decision to move the guy best suited for the slot (McCain) to the boundary so the first round safety can now play the slot, which seems a bit nonsensical to me.

If I HAD to choose right now.... I'd much sooner axe Grier/Tannebaum because I think our drafting would instantly get better, which is what this team needs.  I would give Gase more time.

However, I would not be too torn up if Ross swept all 3 out of office in one move.

This team is in its current state precisely because Ross never sweeps everyone out at once. So yeah, that's what he should do. He won't, but he should.   

One more thing to add:  IF WE DO fire Gase, and fire him too early, IMO he will get another opportunity.  And he will become a good head coach for somebody else.  Maybe even great.  We will watch him succeed with another team, just like Belichek.

A couple of things. One, by the time he became head coach of the Browns Belichick had close to 20 years in the NFL and two, he was 5-11 his first season then Brady fell into his lap and some breaks went his way (coughtuckrulecough) and then he started cheating like hell, with the NFL covering it up until the Pats got so much of an advantage they got tired of doing it and went the other way. But that's another topic altogether.

white1 wrote:A lot of what ails this team is lack of talent, IMO.  Inferior players miss assignments, commit penalties, and are sloppy and unprepared because they don't work that hard.  Coaching can only do so much.

Just to be clear, I'm not disagreeing with you on that point. But if a bad coach like Gase can drag 6 wins out of this bunch, a good coach would get 10. Hell, Gase himself got 10 wins out of this same untalented bunch just 2 years ago. Sure it was all luck and a pillow-soft schedule but still. And even then he was making basic leadership mistakes.

white1 wrote:Interesting JMP.  Would you actually fire Gase and keep both Tannebaum and Grier? I just can't imagine that scenario.  

A lot of what ails this team is lack of talent, IMO.  Inferior players miss assignments, commit penalties, and are sloppy and unprepared because they don't work that hard.  Coaching can only do so much.  

For example, a Johnny Manzeil will NEVER pan out, regardless of the coach.  He isn't "built" to put in the work necessary.  That's an extreme example, but all the great players in the NFL get there by working their assess off.  If you don't have enough.... you will have an average (or worse) roster.

To answer your first question, I would absolutely CLEAN HOUSE. Fire everyone. Tannenbaum is a cancer, and Grier has shown me nothing. Hire a football guy to run the show - like the Jags did with Coughlin.

Yes, lack of talent is a MAJOR issue - and Tannenbaum, Grier and Gase are all accountable. I just don't think these guys understand that superstars win games in this league. They continue to draft primarily role players and guys with low ceilings, and add mediocre veterans. Gesicki may become a stud...but he's an exception to their drafting pattern. And Fitzpatrick fell in their laps - it's not like they did anything to get him...and with him now playing nickle corner, he's not going to be a high-impact player for awhile. Maybe we get lucky with Quinn, but he's a VERY high-priced aging vet that would not have been needed if Charles Harris didn't wet the bed his rookie season. Just like past regimes, we constantly have to throw big money at free agents because the draft picks don't pan out.

I think this should be the final year for the entire crew if they do not make a major step forward.

It all hinges on Tannehill.  I think we all know at this point he is what he is.  If he does not show that he's irreplaceable this year, then we need to draft his replacement next year (something we should have done this season due to his injury and lack of competition for the position).  If you're going to do that, you need a real good front office to make the right decisions, because it'll be more than just QB getting drafted, but moreover a couple key OL studs.

We'll want another coach to be in place for this process if we fail this season.  This is Gase's crew, and if they do not do the job after being handpicked, then he's shown a lack of ability to do his job.  I know Gase is supposed to be a QB guy, but he was handed Tannehill, someone would could be molded with a very strong physical ceiling and intelligence, and if he cannot improve him markedly, then he wasn't what he advertised himself to be.

My fear is that Tannehill being out for a year gives Gase a possible two-year cushion.  You know how he'll play it up to Tannengrier, and they, in turn, will realize that their entire ship is moored in Tannehill/Gase harbor, so they'll push to give Gase more time because he "didn't get his full chance" or some such nonsense.

Can we fire Gase after the first drive of the third pre-season game? Please?