Trade up or trade down that is the question

With Tua entering the draft there’s going to be some wheeling and dealing in the draft. If Miami sees him as their guy would they trade up to get him if someone like SanDiego wants him. Also, if Miami has equal grades on two QB’s. Say Hebert and Tua would it be wise to trade back a spot or two and still get one guy or the other?

I think San Diego might want to leapfrog us to get their guy

With the state of the QB position in the NFL, if these QBs grade out well, there could be a flurry of trade attempts made on draft day.

What would be nice is if Herbert and Love all skyrocket up the boards and Burrows and/or Tua fall to the Phins!!

Wouldn't that be a nice decision to have to make? (assuming Tua's long term health prospects check out.)

Also, it could push somebody else down to the Phins at #5. Chase Young or that OSU CB maybe?

Who knows? The draft is always weird and usually some team or teams pull a Lageman (remember the Jets pick?? )

We actually may need to trade up to get Tua, if he's the QB we want (and I think he has been and will continue to be). Apparently he walked into the press conference today without crutches, a pretty strong non-verbal cue from Tua and his camp.

Cincy is a lock to take Burrow. Redskins would probably want a Kings Ransom for the #2 pick, because with Chase Young that defense is going to be excellent, and that's perfect to prop up their young QB. If they trade down, the Lions or Giants take Young no question.

The ideal trade target is probably the Lions at #3. If I were the Dolphins, I'd be tempted to make that trade up IN ADVANCE of the draft. Force the pressure onto Washington, who will not want to give up Young, arguably the best player on the board and grades out better than NFL studs like Watt and Garrett.

In that scenario, if all hell breaks loose and a team trades up for Tua, then Chase Young at 3 is a great pick.

I'd trade up to #2 ASAP. Get Tua - whatever it takes.

I'd trade up to #2 ASAP. Get Tua - whatever it takes.

Bold move, and I'd be totally good with it. No team can offer what the Fins can given the draft capital Grier has acquired. If we want to do it, then we can make it happen.

Big test for Grier. Will he have enough conviction, courage and will he be bold enough to make a blockbuster trade and acquire what everyone believes is a franchise QB?

I hope so. Anything less will seem like a pedestrian move.

With 3 first round picks this year, we can still probably preserve the 2 we have next year. From 5 to 2 is three slots, so I'm hoping the trade won't be anything close to "Ricky Williams" caliber.

white1 wrote:We actually may need to trade up to get Tua, if he's the QB we want (and I think he has been and will continue to be).  Apparently he walked into the press conference today without crutches, a pretty strong non-verbal cue from Tua and his camp.

Cincy is a lock to take Burrow.  Redskins would probably want a Kings Ransom for the #2 pick, because with Chase Young that defense is going to be excellent, and that's perfect to prop up their young QB.  If they trade down, the Lions or Giants take Young no question.

The ideal trade target is probably the Lions at #3.  If I were the Dolphins, I'd be tempted to make that trade up IN ADVANCE of the draft.  Force the pressure onto Washington, who will not want to give up Young, arguably the best player on the board and grades out better than NFL studs like Watt and Garrett.

In that scenario, if all hell breaks loose and a team trades up for Tua, then Chase Young at 3 is a great pick.

Don't see the Redskins trading down especially if they need a DE. Lions probably want all three 1st round picks for Tua because everyone knows that Miami would want him. Miami has too many holes to fill to trade away picks. The biggest question is, is Grier willing to wait for Trevor Lawrence to come out next year or is Herbert a better leader than Tua?

JMP wrote:I'd trade up to #2 ASAP. Get Tua - whatever it takes.

I feel like Miami could get him at 5. Everyone is saying he has a Bo Jackson type injury and even with the technology hip injures are probably the worst type of injury you can have.

there also this on Tua.....

paul kasabian wrote:Report: Tua Tagovailoa Had Positive Checkup on Injury Before Entering NFL Draft

One reason #Bama QB Tua Tagovailoa declared for the NFL Draft: I’m told his visit to NY to get an update on his medical situation was all positive. He has more tests at 12 and 16 weeks, but he got a solid before saying he was NFL bound.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2869983-report-tua-tagovailoa-had-positive-checkup-on-injury-before-entering-nfl-draft

white1 wrote:

I'd trade up to #2 ASAP. Get Tua - whatever it takes.

Bold move, and I'd be totally good with it.  No team can offer what the Fins can given the draft capital Grier has acquired.  If we want to do it, then we can make it happen.

Big test for Grier.  Will he have enough conviction, courage and will he be bold enough to make a blockbuster trade and acquire what everyone believes is a franchise QB?

I hope so.  Anything less will seem like a pedestrian move.  

With 3 first round picks this year, we can still probably preserve the 2 we have next year.  From 5 to 2 is three slots, so I'm hoping the trade won't be anything close to "Ricky Williams" caliber.  

Yep. The Dolphins set themselves up for this exact scenario: get as many picks as possible so you can get the QB you want, no matter what. Assuming Tua is the guy they want, they cannot afford to play games...just move up and get him.

Bleh. Meh. Feh.

Trading up for a known injury-prone player is the dumbest move possible. If the Fins are trading up anyway, why not go for Burrow? Surely the asking price for him wouldn't be THAT much more than moving up to #2.

Otherwise they need all the first round picks they can get. QB isn't the only hole on this team, you know.

I would be shocked if Tua was a top 10 QB or even in the league in 5 years.

DolFan 316 wrote:Bleh. Meh. Feh.

Trading up for a known injury-prone player is the dumbest move possible. If the Fins are trading up anyway, why not go for Burrow? Surely the asking price for him wouldn't be THAT much more than moving up to #
Otherwise they need all the first round picks they can get. QB isn't the only hole on this team, you know.

I would be shocked if Tua was a top 10 QB or even in the league in 5 years.

I agree x a million

CarsonChris wrote:I agree x a million

THANK YOU!!! I'm just glad *somebody* does.

The best ability for an NFL player is availability.

I think Tua is the hardest player to evaluate for the simple reason Alabama has such great players. When the receivers are ten yards in the clear you’re going to put up great numbers. Playing behind a dominating line helps.

I guess Burrow is hard to evaluate too. His OL and WRs are just as good if not better than Alabama's.

No one has the accuracy and ball placement that Tua does. That's on him, not his receiving corps.

The only Tua question is the hip, and it's a big question. There is zero question about his talent and skill.

I found a draft pick value chart at drafttek.com. According to that it would cost our first two #1s to move to 2. To move to 3 would cost our first pick in rd. 1 plus our first pick in rd. 2. Interesting...not as bad as I expected. I don't know how closely teams still follow that chart.

I don't see it. An injury prone system QB with a broken ankle and surgically repaired hip? The only move up would be Burrows or Young.

I would not move up with the injury questions. Tua would be a once-in-a-decade talent without them, but they're part of the equation. I wouldn't mind taking him at 5. A lot depends on how the team feels about the other QB's in the class.

One of the QB's in the class is likely to be a Mahomes or Jackson type phenom within 2 years, but which one? So much goes into it. It wouldn't surprise me if Herbert actually plays the best of the bunch and it wouldn't surprise me if Fromm, in the right system with the right coach, takes a team into the post-season Alex Smith-style within 2 years. Nor would it surprise me if Eason emerges at the next level. Whoever it is is going to click with the system and coach.

i'm okay with the Phins taking a chance on Tua with the 5th pick, but oppose trading away additional picks to move up to select him. as DF said, there are too many holes elsewhere on this team. a healthy Tua, i might consider it, but not in his current state. he may produce at a high level for a few years, but i fear the hip will never fully get better thus shortening his career.

...biggest concern is not whether Tagovailoa will be healthy enough to play again at a high level. Rather, it’s how long of a career Tagovailoa can have.

“Tua’s hip only has so many miles left on it,” Chao wrote. “He is at high risk to need future total hip replacement. Arthritis is inevitable.”

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/nfl/miami-dolphins/article238997923.html

...former Ravens tight end Dennis Pitta suffered a hip fracture/dislocation in July 2013, “but returned later that season as a part of the team’s Super Bowl run. He re-injured his hip in 2014, underwent another surgery and sat out 2015, but returned to lead all NFL tight ends in receptions in 2016. Pitta then injured his hip a third time in June 2017, forcing him to retire.”

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/barry-jackson/article238752833.html

JEGnj wrote:I don't see it. An injury prone system QB with a broken ankle and surgically repaired hip? The only move up would be Burrows or Young.

Tua never broke his ankle - that's completely false. He suffered two high ankle sprains at Alabama, and had tightrope surgery on both. Tightrope surgery will prevent further ankle sprains, so that's not a concern at all. The only injury of note is the hip, and so far by all reports he is progressing on schedule. He met with an NFL doctor over the weekend, and whatever news he got made him confident enough to declare for the draft. Yes, he will need to rehab and recover...but there is no reason - at this time - to think that the hip will be a long-term concern. We will know more some time in late March...in plenty of time before the draft.

As for being a "system QB", what are you basing that on? Under Steve Sarkisian, Alabama ran a multiple-style offense that changed weekly based on the opponent. It's not a single system...it's aspects of many different systems. It's very QB-focused...meaning that the QB has a lot of work to do pre-snap, identifying coverages and assigning a "hot" receiver. The QB also has the option to change to a pass on any running play. All of this means that Tua is far more advanced than most college QBs when it comes to knowing how to run an NFL offense. Chan Gailey will do very similar things in Miami...he always has. All of this is to say that Tua is perfectly suited to be the Miami Dolphins QB.

mercury22nathan wrote:i'm okay with the Phins taking a chance on Tua with the 5th pick, but oppose trading away additional picks to move up to select him.  as DF said, there are too many holes elsewhere on this team.  a healthy Tua, i might consider it, but not in his current state.  he may produce at a high level for a few years, but i fear the hip will never fully get better thus shortening his career.

...biggest concern is not whether Tagovailoa will be healthy enough to play again at a high level. Rather, it’s how long of a career Tagovailoa can have.

“Tua’s hip only has so many miles left on it,” Chao wrote. “He is at high risk to need future total hip replacement. Arthritis is inevitable.”

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/nfl/miami-dolphins/article238997923.html

...former Ravens tight end Dennis Pitta suffered a hip fracture/dislocation in July 2013, “but returned later that season as a part of the team’s Super Bowl run. He re-injured his hip in 2014, underwent another surgery and sat out 2015, but returned to lead all NFL tight ends in receptions in 2016. Pitta then injured his hip a third time in June 2017, forcing him to retire.”

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/barry-jackson/article238752833.html

There is no indication at this point that the hip will be a long-term concern - that's pure speculation. There's also no indication that Dennis Pitta and Tua had the same exact injury, or that what happened to Pitta will happen to Tua.

It's all just speculation. As I said, we'll know more in late March...that is apparently the next "milestone" marker in the recovery process. For now, all we know for sure is that Tua met with an NFL-related doctor, and the news he received was positive enough to make his decision to declare. Beyond that, no one knows anything.

Bottom line for me: if the medicals check out, it's a no brainer: do whatever you can to get him, because he is a generational-caliber QB. If the medicals don't check out, trade down or take a chance on Herbert.

HalCHorn wrote:I would not move up with the injury questions.  Tua would be a once-in-a-decade talent without them, but they're part of the equation.  I wouldn't mind taking him at 5.  A lot depends on how the team feels about the other QB's in the class.

If you're comfortable enough to take him at 5, why wouldn't you be comfortable taking him at 3? The compensation to move up won't be bad to move up two spots, considering we have more than enough ammo to make up for any picks we lose.

JMP wrote:For now, all we know for sure is that Tua met with an NFL-related doctor, and the news he received was positive enough to make his decision to declare.

that's pure speculation. no one outside of the doctors and Tua's circle knows what he heard - good or bad. they may well have told him that his hip will never be the same and is at a very high risk of being permanently destroyed. so do not take the chance of returning to college and of being exposed. right now, the fact that your hip is an unknown is the best chance you'll ever have so go enter the draft and make whatever kind of money you can as things are not going to get better.

nothing is certain at this point other than the fact that he declared. why he declared - because the future looks bright or because he has one chance to get drafted while his hip is shrouded in uncertainty (and will be until after the draft) - is not clear.

There is a lot of rewards if Miami moves down as well. there are at least 12 teams that will be looking into getting a QB next year (Pats are gonna be one of them). besides the Bengals and Miami, there is Tampa Bay, Titans, Lions, Packers, Vikings, Pats, Chargers, Raiders, Panthers, and Jags. All those teams that I have listed beside the Lions are lower than Miami in the draft. Tampa Bay is 14th, Panthers is 7th, Chargers are 6th and the Pats are ranked 23rd, these team all will lose their starting QB during the offseason and will need to either trade up or stick with a QB prospect that won't be considered a starter. I could even consider the Falcons as another team that might be looking for a QB within this or next year's draft as well.

Miami has a lot of holes to fill and a lot of money to spend. Finding a team that is willing to trade down with get more picks and take the risk of going after a QB that might not be a day one starter is also a possibility.

mercury22nathan wrote:

JMP wrote:For now, all we know for sure is that Tua met with an NFL-related doctor, and the news he received was positive enough to make his decision to declare.

that's pure speculation.  no one outside of the doctors and Tua's circle knows what he heard - good or bad.  they may well have told him that his hip will never be the same and is at a very high risk of being permanently destroyed.  so do not take the chance of returning to college and of being exposed.  right now, the fact that your hip is an unknown is the best chance you'll ever have so go enter the draft and make whatever kind of money you can as things are not going to get better.

nothing is certain at this point other than the fact that he declared.  why he declared - because the future looks bright or because he has one chance to get drafted while his hip is shrouded in uncertainty (and will be until after the draft) - is not clear.

My bad - you're right that we don't actually know what the doctor said, so it is speculation on my part as well. That said, most reports last week had Tua returning to college. Then, he met with a NFL-related doctor and chose to declare. Connecting the dots, it sure seems like Tua got positive enough news that he was confident to enter the NFL draft. If the doctor reviewed his current medical status and advised Tua not the enter the draft, it is safe to assume that he'd stay in 'bama. So yes, it is an assumption - but it's an assumption based on a reasonable interpretation.

Regardless, as I said, we'll know more in late March and teams will be able to make a much more informed decision on Tua's value at that point.

My stance is always to swing for the fences instead of being content with a single. This is a two-QB draft IMO - you have Burrow and Tua, and everyone else. I'm sick and tired of seeing the Dolphins left behind with a mediocre QB while other teams draft superstars and move ahead of the pack. The Dolphins have set themselves up to get Tua and still have plenty of assets to build the team, and assuming the medicals are OK they should go after him by any means necessary. If it doesn't work out, we at least tried for greatness and can go back to the drawing board and take another shot at it. Being content with lesser players is why we haven't won a damn thing in decades.

rightchea wrote:There is a lot of rewards if Miami moves down as well. there are at least 12 teams that will be looking into getting a QB next year (Pats are gonna be one of them). besides the Bengals and Miami, there is Tampa Bay, Titans, Lions, Packers, Vikings, Pats, Chargers, Raiders, Panthers, and Jags. All those teams that I have listed beside the Lions are lower than Miami in the draft. Tampa Bay is 14th, Panthers is 7th, Chargers are 6th and the Pats are ranked 23rd, these team all will lose their starting QB during the offseason and will need to either trade up or stick with a QB prospect that won't be considered a starter. I could even consider the Falcons as another team that might be looking for a QB within this or next year's draft as well.

Miami has a lot of holes to fill and a lot of money to spend. Finding a team that is willing to trade down with get more picks and take the risk of going after a QB that might not be a day one starter is also a possibility.

If we can't get Tua for any reason then I'm definitely on board with trading down. But I'm not passing up the chance to draft a franchise QB. We have tons of picks and money, and we can still build a great roster even if we have to trade up for Tua.