what's in a number?

despite the overly liberal dropping of flags for breathing too closely to a QB (not named Tua) and the expectation that defenders can somehow midair adjust to a ball carrier (dropping his head into the trajectory of a tackle) to avoid targeting or unnecessary roughness - and the general rule changes and PI enforcement to benefit offenses - scoring is down, way down in the NFL.

In a league that has been defined by an offensive explosion over the past few years, teams have hit a bit of a wall in the 2023 season.

Ten weeks into the season, teams are averaging 21.77 points per game, which is the lowest mark since 2017, according to TruMedia. The league’s 5.2-yard average per play is the lowest since 2007. And the explosive play rate — the percentage of passes that gain 16 yards and runs that gain 12 yards — is its lowest since 2007.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/scoring-down-around-nfl-dolphins-215500119.html

there's a lot of reasons. one is the lack of o-line talent protecting the playmakers. with the recent offensive explosions, defenses have put a premium on rushing the passer to counterbalance the pass interference call (if DBs can't foul up WRs then maybe DEs can rattle the QB - before he even throws the ball). guys like Tony Boselli and Orlando Pace who in the past protected QBs are now funneled toward the D-line to become the JJ Watts and Aaron Donalds of today's NFL - the premier DEs and DTs - leaving the other large (i.e. chubby), less athletic kids to be O-linemen.

the other major factor is the downright general lack of a capable QB play. as colleges steer more towards spread offenses with more athletic QBs, there is less supply of worthy passers and its more of projection as to who will succeed. and in the immediate-gratification world of the NFL, most rookie QBs don't have the time to develop and learn how to defeat the ever more complicated defenses.

but i think there is another, perhaps more direct, recent and immediate reason contributing as well...

In 2021, the NFL loosened its rules about which players can wear which jerseys, allowing defensive players to wear single-digit numbers. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes is not a fan.

Mahomes told Peyton and Eli Manning on Monday night that it has become harder for quarterbacks to identify the players they need to read now that there's so much wider a variety of jersey numbers.

"It's even crazier now because everybody can wear the single digits," Mahomes said. "We actually go in every week and we really emphasize the numbers because when you've got a number like No. 7 playing middle linebacker, that can really mess with your tells for the o-linemen. It looks cool, I'll give everybody that, but it makes it a little difficult for the QB."

Mahomes said that early in his career, when linebackers and defensive backs wore different numbers, it was easy to see which personnel grouping the defense had sent into the game. Now it's harder because you can't determine the position a player plays based on his jersey number.

"You get these guys who rotate in, and you'll get a DB who's in the 40s and a linebacker in single digits," Mahomes said. "Having to really recognize that quickly."

Mahomes' comments echo those of Tom Brady, who said after the NFL implemented the new jersey numbering rule that he saw it as a big advantage for the defense. It's a rule that defensive players love, and quarterbacks hate.

https://sports.yahoo.com/patrick-mahomes-nfls-expanded-jersey-165920238.html

correlation? maybe i'm off base here, but if the scoring keeps dropping over the next couple seasons, i could see the NFL revisit or tweak the number changes.

Great post, merc!

I never gave the jersey numbers much thought, aside from thinking it was stupid to make the numbers rule change. (Although not as stupid as college players having to change their jerseys in-game if they play more than one position, but that's another story.) But, yeah, I can definitely see how the jersey numbers would impact protections for the offense.

As a Dolphins fan this is really amazing:

Ten weeks into the season, teams are averaging 21.77 points per game, which is the lowest mark since 2017, according to TruMedia. The league’s 5.2-yard average per play is the lowest since 2007. And the explosive play rate — the percentage of passes that gain 16 yards and runs that gain 12 yards — is its lowest since 2007.

See those numbers? Well, here are the Dolphins numbers:
--31.7 points per game
--7.1 average yards per play
--Mostert is #2 in the NFL with 19 runs of 10+ yards (just one behind the #1 spot).
--I don't know how many passes of 16+ yards Tua has completed, but it has to be near the top.

Because I'm such a stats nerd, I actually have the league scoring average for every season since the merger on hand a click away

The numbers theory is interesting (and yet another utterly nonsensical forced change implemented that very few people like) but methinks the recent retirements of multiple Hall Of Fame QBs have a *little* something to do with it, as well as the generational loss of testosterone I've gone over many times having an obvious and alarmingly detrimental effect in males under 40 across the board in society. O-lineman simply aren't as manly as they used to be. Interestingly enough, this also seems to apply to edge rushers as well--there simply aren't nearly as many of them capable of having double digit sack seasons on a consistent basis--or at all--as there used to be even a decade ago. So it goes both ways. There's also the unprecedented wave of injuries this season to consider. In my over 40 years of following the NFL I cannot recall seeing this many across the board at this point of any season. You can't expect any team down to their 3rd QB with 3rd string O-linemen in front of him to score much under any circumstances. Imagine the Fins with Skylar (or even Mike White) playing QB behind an O-line with every starter injured. Not a pretty picture, is it?

What I can tell you though is as recently as 2020 the scoring average was a ridiculous 24.8 points per game--the highest mark since at least the merger and maybe in NFL history. Even in 2021 it was still 23 points per game. This does lend more credence to the numbers theory being a big reason since it's slipped to under 22 a game the past season and a half. Expect it to drop further too, as more injuries mount, offenses get figured out and weather cuts into scoring production. Even the best offenses in NFL history started slipping and slumping this time of the season.