Let's Do This Again, Shall We?

finfanatic wrote:After the Pro Day... I can see why Chase is rated higher. He does look like Antonio Brown somewhat. Plus, he might be even shiftier with his feet.

Let's hope Grier and Flores are smart enough to get the combination right.  If the Phins can hit these first two picks right, they could be set for the next few years.

Of course, they could still go OT I guess?

The more I think about it, the more I think Miami's targets are Pitts or Smith. They are the two offensive players that potentially have "transcendent" skillsets - Pitts with his size and athleticism, Smith with his top-notch route-running and hands. Chase is a good prospect as well, but as I've said, taking that year off really hurts my opinion of him...IMO he needed that extra year to hone his skills, and without it I think he's much more raw than Pitts or Smith, and either way I don't think his upside is as high as either of them.

I'm guessing the Phins will have their pick of all 3 if they stay at 6...I could see the Falcons going QB or defense (Surtain? Parsons? Horn?) and the Bengals almost have to take Sewell. In that scenario, the Phins can trade down to 8 and still end up with Pitts, Smith or Chase...assuming the Panthers want to move up for a QB. Regardless, it looks like 6 is a real "sweet spot" to be in.

Smith and Pitts are the only players I would be happy with this team taking with the first pick, period. In that order. MAYBE I would trade down to 8 if the price was right, but no further. UNLESS...I could make a "shock the world" trade with the Broncos by giving them Howard in exchange for #9 and at least one more pick, then taking Surtain with that pick. The story would write itself at that point. (Smith or Pitts would still be my first pick though no matter what.)

18 might have more value than you think too. Edge rusher is a MAJOR need and this draft has a scarcity of them. Every time I get cutesy and trade down from 18 I get burned because all the edge rushers worth taking get snatched (even if I only trade down 3 spots!) so I'm thinking edge is going to be the pick there at 18 IRL.

DolFan 316 wrote:

18 might have more value than you think too. Edge rusher is a MAJOR need and this draft has a scarcity of them. Every time I get cutesy and trade down from 18 I get burned because all the edge rushers worth taking get snatched (even if I only trade down 3 spots!) so I'm thinking edge is going to be the pick there at 18 IRL.

Edge rusher is definitely scarce, but too many question marks for the top guys at 18 IMO. I'd be real tempted to take Jae Phillips from UM at 18, but his concussion history scares me. Boogie Basham is an ideal fit for the Phins, but is he a top 20 player? I like Zaven Collins A LOT, but I feel like I can get a similar player in Baron Browning in round 2. Azeez Ojulari is all sorts of intriguing, but I'm not sure he's even 240 pounds. Kwity Paye is a great story and nice player but I don't see the Phins using a top 20 pick on a 6'2" DE. And of course, Greg Rousseau is the wild card...a top 10-type talent, but tons of question marks. There are other edge rushers as well, but those are the standouts for me.

So yeah, I think I'd rather take more of a "sure thing" at 18 with Harris...even though I usually wouldn't want a first round RB these days.

HalCHorn wrote:I guess I like Chase better than most; if he's our first pick I won't complain

Seems like Chase is the consensus #1 with fans around the internet...many people dismiss Smith because of his weight. I wouldn't complain about Chase, I just think Smith is much better because of his route running - and again, that year off really hurts Chase in my eyes.

simulator is a little off at times; Pitts, Waddle and Harris at 6, 18 and 36 with no trades? If only.....

6.

Kyle Pitts
TE Florida
MIA
18.

Jaylen Waddle
WR Alabama
MIA
36.

Najee Harris
RB Alabama
MIA
52.

Carlos Basham Jr.
EDGE Wake Forest
trade icon
MIA
81.

Quinn Meinerz
OC Wisconsin-Whitewater
MIA
231.

Deommodore Lenoir
CB Oregon
MIA
258.

Tarron Jackson
EDGE Coastal Carolina
2022 CHI 3r

Hal, you have me drooling with that draft!!!

I kinda liked this one.

Traded down 2 spots with the Panthers and got their first next year (seriously, this offer was a thing). Panthers traded up for Trey Lance and Pitts went at #5 to Cincy, never expected that

#6 WR Devonta Smith (who I wanted all along)

#18 EDGE Azeez Ojulari

Traded down with the Cowboys, getting picks #44 and 78 for pick #36.

#44 WR Terrace Marshall. Damn right I took him here.

#50 RB Javonte Williams

#78 G Ben Cleveland

#81 T Jackson Carman

#156 C Michael Menet

Traded #231 and the extra 7th from the Titans to the Bucs for picks #248 and 251, then watched them take DT Jonathan Marshall with that pick (ouch!). I really thought he'd drop to me, oh well.

#248 DT Lorenzo Neal

#251 S Christian Uphoff

#258 QB K.J. Costello (FF talked me into it).

Yeah, I am starting to think the rankings on that simulator are probably way off.

It does seem to me that EDGE Rusher is the limiting factor in this draft. If you want a really good one, or one that if
all the questions get answered positively as JMP noted, you are going to have to use #18, or maybe trade down a few spots
and take the best one available.

There is a second tier where someone is gonna find a gem or two I think. I know some mocks had Miami going for Vanderbilt DE Odeyingbo going to the Phins at #81 IIRC.

Joe Tryon is moving up after his pro day it look like. I suspect he will go higher than was expected just based on his potential.

One guy I think might be worth a look late: Chris Rumph. He is light and got used situationally, but he seems to have all the tools.
Just needs to add some weight for the NFL I think.

That's the one thing I can't get past when I do a draft. Edge is a CRYING need, perhaps the single biggest one, and I keep feeling I *must* take one at 18 because every single time I trade down the best edge rushers available get snatched out from under me. It really is a pain in the posterior

Also, you just know Flores isn't taking TWO offensive players in the first, even if that's what Grier wants. He'll step in just like he did last year with the Iggy pick (that I'm still salty about).

DolFan 316 wrote:That's the one thing I can't get past when I do a draft. Edge is a CRYING need, perhaps the single biggest one, and I keep feeling I *must* take one at 18 because every single time I trade down the best edge rushers available get snatched out from under me. It really is a pain in the posterior  

Also, you just know Flores isn't taking TWO offensive players in the first, even if that's what Grier wants. He'll step in just like he did last year with the Iggy pick (that I'm still salty about).

No need to overdraft an edge player in this class. IMO there will be guys taken in rounds 2-5 that will end up being just as good (or better) as guys taken in round 1.

I absolutely think the Phins will take two offensive players in round one. That's where the value in this draft is, and I think they'll follow it.

As for Iggy, it was a value pick: he was the top-rated press corner in the draft, and an ideal fit for Miami's defense. That's a great selection at #30 overall, especially when you drafted your potential franchise QB and LT earlier in the round.

I talked with a friend of mine, who back in the day lived in the same neighborhood as a Dolphins employee, and shared a brewski or two on occasion, and got some excellent tidbits about the unfortunate Dave Wannstedt-led Phins. I heard about Wannstedt and Mike Westoffs extreme dislike for each other before Wannstedt kicked Westoff to the curb.

Anyway... He doesn't have the same sources, but the word he is hearing is that the Phins are enamored with Chase. And they DO NOT THINK he is Antonio Brown-like!!! They think he is a Stephon Diggs clone!!!

Okay, I kept trying different draft scenarios, and kept coming back to this one:

7. Ja'Marr Chase WR LSU - If this is who they covet, I doubt they would trade down one with the Lions for the #7 and the #41, but I would.

18. Azeez Ojulari EDGE Georgia - It was EXTREMELY hard to bypass Najee, but... The premier edge rushers are probably going to go quickly. I had the choice of Rousseau, Phillips, Ossai, or Ojulari. I think Ojulari may not have hit his ceiling yet. His best days may be ahead of him.

36. Baron Browning LB Ohio State - The Phins HAVE TO get a LB who can run with a receiver or at least cover those underneath routes. Browning can probably do that. I would prefer Jabril Cox, but he was gone already.

41. Javonte Williams RB North Carolina - This guy MAY be terrific in the NFL. He should be the Dolphins main ground attack weapon for years to come.

Note at #41 - I debated on whether to go for Wyatt Davis at #41. The big Guard from OSU would really improve the O-LINE IMHO. But the RB is the bigger need IMO. I doubt Grier feels that way, so...

50. Dillon Radunz OT North Dakota State - OT who may move to Guard. I think Radunz MAY end up at G, which means Hunt stays at RT. Of course, this is all moot, because we all know Grier is gonna draft Sewell or Slater at #6!! (SIGH)

81. Josh Myers OC Ohio State - I do not know if Myers will unseat Skura THIS YEAR, but he might! This should solve the Dolphins Center position for a few years.

156. Jonathan Marshall DT Arkansas- Depth DT who can provide some rest for the starters.

231.Malik Herring EDGE Georgia - D-Line backup who can team with Ojulari to improve the pass rush on passing downs.

258. KJ Costello QB Mississippi State - Developmental QB.

It went Lawrence, Wilson, Fields ( I think there is a CHANCE, the 49ers go Mac Wilson, but...), then the Falcons stupidly took Trey Lance, then the Bengals took Sewell, which made my heart soar since that meant Grier was off the hook!!!, and I was surprised that the Lions offered a trade of the #7 and the #41 to trade up and I said to myself, "Myself," I said, "They want Pitts, or maybe Chase. I want Chase, so I should refuse!" But then I looked and if they take Chase, that would leave Pitts, Waddle and Smith on the board, and said to myself, " Myself," I said, "That #41 pick WOULD open up a wonderful scenario for the Phins. Let's do it!!"

SO I traded down one spot to #7 and picked up the #41. The Lions took Waddle, and if he IS the next Tyrek Hill, then they made the best move in the draft!!!

I took Chase, who is going to be the next Stephon Diggs I hear!



I am preparing myself to be sorely disappointed by the Phins draft picks, but I am looking forward to this draft like no other.

Okay, this would be the draft where I'd either be fired, or be lauded as a genius.

MIA - Lots of trading down to make this plus several other picks happen.
28.
Travis Etienne
RB Clemson

MIA
36.
Zaven Collins
LB Tulsa

MIA
47.
Wyatt Davis
OG Ohio State

MIA
50.
Quinn Meinerz
OC Wisconsin-Whitewater

MIA
53.
Eric Stokes
CB Georgia

MIA
57.
Dillon Radunz
OT North Dakota State

MIA
60.
Landon Dickerson
OC Alabama

MIA
81.
Amon-Ra St. Brown
WR USC

MIA
89.
Jordan Smith
EDGE UAB

MIA
103.
Talanoa Hufanga
S USC

MIA
133.
Ambry Thomas
CB Michigan

MIA
156.
Divine Deablo
S Virginia Tech

MIA
244.
Malcolm Koonce
EDGE Buffalo

MIA
255.
Drue Chrisman
P Ohio State

2022 LAR 2nd
2022 DAL 3rd
2022 LAR 3rd
2022 WAS 4th
2022 TEN 5th
2022 CLE 5th

I took a lot of guys I feel have the smarts to be a part of this system.  I also am counting on Parker to be a true No. 1, and for the Phins to go to a short possession passing game to compliment their running.  The offensive line is stocked now, and I managed to get some extra picks for next year.  I was surprised Deablo was still available where he was, and the other safety is going to be an excellent surprise player in the NFL, in my estimation.

Either all that, or it will be a beautiful flame out, I will collect my check, and disappear.

So many OL guys, what were you thinking, Deg?

finfanatic wrote:the word he is hearing is that the Phins are enamored with Chase. And they DO NOT THINK he is Antonio Brown-like!!!   They think he is a Stephon Diggs clone!!!

Interesting...I feel like Smith is more like Diggs, with his toughness, hands and ability to get open.

Again, I would be absolutely shocked if the Phins drafted a one-year wonder at #6 overall. Chase may be good...but there's just not enough of a body of work to project - and he hasn't played in over a year.

Here is a mock I did the other day.  I just discovered these mock simulators this year and I am loving it, especially the ones that offer trades.

6. Kyle Pitts  TE  Florida

Traded Pick 18 to Cleveland for picks 26, 59, 132

Traded Pick 26 & 81 to Green Bay for picks 29, 62

29. Jaelan Phillips  Edge  Miami

36. Javonte Williams  RB North Carolina

50. Landon Dickerson  C  Alabama

59. Nick Bolton  LB Missouri

62. Elijah Moore  WR  Mississippi

132. Dayo Odeyingbo  Edge Vanderbilt

156. Austin Watkins  WR  UAB

231. Chris Evans  RB  Michigan

258. Christian Uphoff  S  Illinois State


I did one a couple of weeks ago where I got Pitts at 6 and Waddle at 18.  Fin Nation would go nuts if that should somehow happen.

Nice, KS.

My only complaint about the simulators is some of the board rankings are WAY OFF I am thinking.

I saw some mocks where Elijah Moore got picked in the lower 1st round. And Najee Harris was rated like a 3rd rounder!!

And Green Bay routinely picks Landon Dickerson in the 1st round too it seems.

There used to be one simulator that let you pick the ranking boards you wanted to use. I think they charge for using it now.

But they sure are fun to play with.

I suspect we will all get a 50% pass/fail rate on our picks just like the pros.

So many good drafts from everyone.

Here's today's attempt, one week out:

Atlanta offered 35, 68 and 1st, 2nd, 5th round picks next year for # 6.  I countered by adding asking to move up from 156 to 148 and 258 to 219 which was accepted.

Then DeVonta Smith is there at 18.

Trevon Moehring is there at 35.  

Marshall is still there at 36, too, but I didn't want to chance missing a RB so I took Williams there.

Took 57, 103 and 219 for 50 and 231 from LAC

Leatherwood is there at 57.

Took 88, 141 and a third next year from LAR for 68 and 148.

Took 83 and 204 for 81 from CHI

Jordan Smith at 83.

Took 92 and 142 from GB for 88.

Took D'Wayne Eskridge at 92.

Tuipotulu at 103.

Adrian Ealy at 141.
Michael Menet at 142 (reach, but he's the last C worth taking)

Camryn Bynum at 204, team captain who showed well at Sr. Bowl (probably good value there).

Ended up with this for next year:

2022
SF 1st
ATL 1st
MIA 2nd
ATL 2nd
MIA 3rd
SF 3rd
LAR 3rd
MIA 4th
MIA 5th
ATL 5th
MIA 6th
TEN 7th

And this draft:
18.

DeVonta Smith
WR Alabama
MIA
35.

Trevon Moehrig
S TCU
trade icon
MIA
36.

Javonte Williams
RB North Carolina
MIA
57.

Alex Leatherwood
OT Alabama
trade icon
MIA
83.

Jordan Smith
EDGE UAB
trade icon
MIA
92.

D’Wayne Eskridge
WR Western Michigan
trade icon
MIA
103.

Marlon Tuipulotu
DT USC
trade icon
MIA
141.

Adrian Ealy
OT Oklahoma
trade icon
MIA
142.

Michael Menet
OC Penn State
trade icon
MIA
204.

Camryn Bynum
CB California
trade icon
MIA
209.

Patrick Johnson
EDGE Tulane
trade icon
MIA
219.

Kene Nwangwu
RB Iowa State

Unrealistic to get Smith there, but it's fun to dream.

HalCHorn wrote:Then DeVonta Smith is there at 18.

Okay that does it. Whatever you're doing when you make these drafts you absolutely, positively MUST keep it up a week from now!!!

Pitts at 6 and Smith at 18...that's my new dream!

Not happening, but hey...it's a dream.

Hal, another great draft.

It does seem that the simulator will randomly have the acceptance level of trades set to HARD or EASY at times.

I did one with Dallas the other day where I got their 1st, 2nd, and 4th and a 2022 1st for the #6. They took Surtain and passed on Pitts!?!?

And then sometimes, they will not trade for anything!

I do expect someone to drop. Who it is though.... Mac Jones maybe?

I'm sure they are quite a bit off when it comes down to it just like all the experts. I do think the Draft Network one is the best one for accuracy but you can't do trades on it unless you pay.

finfanatic wrote:Nice, KS.

My only complaint about the simulators is some of the board rankings are WAY OFF I am thinking.

I saw some mocks where Elijah Moore got picked in the lower 1st round. And Najee Harris was rated like a 3rd rounder!!

And Green Bay routinely picks Landon Dickerson in the 1st round too it seems.

There used to be one simulator that let you pick the ranking boards you wanted to use. I think they charge for using it now.

But they sure are fun to play with.

I suspect we will all get a 50% pass/fail rate on our picks just like the pros.

This is my last one before the draft, and the only one I took seriously-ish.

MIA
6.
Kyle Pitts
TE Florida

MIA
18.
DeVonta Smith
WR Alabama

MIA
36.
Javonte Williams
RB North Carolina

MIA
50.
Quinn Meinerz
OC Wisconsin-Whitewater

MIA
81.
Pete Werner
LB Ohio State

MIA
156.
Divine Deablo
S Virginia Tech

MIA
231.
Jack Anderson
OG Texas Tech

MIA
244.
Chris Garrett
EDGE Concordia-St. Paul

Nice draft, DG.

Okay, I am just going to say it: What is it with Quinn Meinerz?  The dude played at an also-ran college and has a big belly!
What makes anyone think he is worth the #50 pick?  Is he going to develop into a star O-lineman?

I just do not get how fast and far up the draft boards he has gone!

Of course, he could be like Marpet who is playing for TB IIRC?

I rank the OCs this way: Dickerson, Humphrey, and then Myers, Memet (I think form PSU) and then get that GA OC late if need be.

But maybe I am way off on assessing Meinerz? He sure seems to have rocketed up the boards.

What does Merc have to say on Meinerz?

Degarmo, that's my dream draft right there. Damn.

Devonta Smith falling to 18?!?! Did Degarmo do this draft or Hal?

But seriously, there's no way that's going to happen for real.

finfanatic wrote:

Okay, I am just going to say it: What is it with Quinn Meinerz?  The dude played at an also-ran college and has a big belly!
What makes anyone think he is worth the #50 pick?  Is he going to develop into a star O-lineman?

I just do not get how fast and far up the draft boards he has gone!

Of course, he could be like Marpet who is playing for TB IIRC?

I rank the OCs this way:  Dickerson, Humphrey, and then Myers, Memet (I think form PSU) and then get that GA OC late if need be.

But maybe I am way off on assessing Meinerz? He sure seems to have rocketed up the boards.

What does Merc have to say on Meinerz?

Meinerz showed up at the Senior Bowl as a nobody. And all he did was absolutely dominate in practice and the drills, from day one. You could argue, convincingly, that he was the best lineman at the Senior Bowl. He's a cool guy, and he works out like a goddamn animal. He's been a guard, but the Dolphins staff gave him reps as a center and he excelled. Strong, athletic, good attitude, coachable, hard-working, driven - this dude is the total package. Sure, he will need some seasoning just because of level of competition. But he showed that he belongs in the NFL and with the right coaching his ceiling is sky high.