We don't need no stinking' RB drafted that high!! We got Myles Gaskin!

I think it was JMP who said Gaskin's numbers compare favorably with all those RBs that got picked early last draft?

https://dolphinswire.usatoday.com/2021/04/14/the-argument-against-dolphins-forcing-an-early-pick-at-running-back/

Here is the list of RBs that went ahead of Miami's #56 pick:
Clyde Edwards-Helaire at No. 32 to Kansas City
D’Andre Swift at No. 35 to Detroit
Jonathan Taylor at No. 41 overall to Indianapolis
Cam Akers at No. 52 overall to Los Angeles
J.K. Dobbins at No. 55 overall to Baltimore

The gist seems to be the Phins were wanting a RB at #56 but all the top RBs had gone earlier.
So, the Phins traded for Matt Breida, who was ill-suited for Miami's offense.

But 2019 7th rounder Gaskin came to the rescue and put up similar numbers to the drafted RBs.

Taylor – 97.9 yards from scrimmage per game (268 total touches, 5.5 yards per touch)
Gaskin – 97.2 yards from scrimmage per game (183 total touches, 5.3 yards per touch)
Edwards-Helaire – 84.6 yards from scrimmage per game (217 total touches, 5.1 yards per touch)
Swift – 67.5 yards from scrimmage per game (160 total touches, 5.5 yards per touch)
Dobbins – 61.7 yards from scrimmage per game (152 total touches, 6.1 yards per touch)
Akers – 57.5 yards from scrimmage per game (156 total touches, 4.8 yards per touch)

So, it would seem to make the case the Phins should draft a RB LATER instead of early.

I for one am not sold on this concept. Hard to argue with Gaskin's numbers, but... BUT, and as Sir Mix-A-Lot intones, it is a Big But......

Gaskin was good when the O-line was good. Not so good once the injuries piled up. And Gaskin got dinged a lot it seemed to me. I think he got the Chicom Virus too.
I just don't think Gaskin can be used as the FEATURE BACK. As a backup, as a change of pace RB to give the main RB a breather, of course.

SO, we all agree the Phins need to draft a RB this year, or bring some UDFAs and let them compete. Get Gaskin and a couple of others and do the RB by committee thing?

Or go for Harris, Etienne, or Javonte Williams. If they want Harris or Etienne, I think they will be 1st rounders or right at the top of the 2nd round. I would RATHER they get a RB in the 2nd or lower.

After the top 3, there seems to be a fairly BIG DROPOFF.

Down to Carter from NC, Sermon from OSU, and Gainwell from Memphis.

I am having a very hard time deciding if getting Harris at #18 would be a good thing, or go for the O-line, the Edge Rusher, or the LB with that pick and look to get a RB in the 2nd.
Or maybe target one of the lower graded RBs later.

Let's hope Grier gets this draft decision right too.

Sure seems one A LOT of very important decisions piling up on Grier!

Excellent post FF.

I.... don't know? I would say that JK Dobbins would look really good in our offense - plus Gaskins backing him up. Almost a full yard better per touch, and a physical back in the mold Baltimore loves them.

I will say it depends on who is available in addition to a feature back when our picks roll around.

If it's a choice between a RB and Parsons, Z Collins, Owusu - in other words, a highly rated EDGE or LB - I take the front seven defender every time.

If it's a choice between a RB and highly rated Center - again I take the center.

A top RB vs a lower-tier WR (let's say the top 1st round picks have been taken) - then I would likely select the back.

Btw, I read an article this morning I think in the Herald dissecting the first round backs. IMO Javonte Williams is the correct pick hands down. Compares favorably to Nick Chubb, and reports are his intangibles (leadership, intelligence, work ethic, character) are off-the-charts good. Sounds exactly like a Flores guy to me, and more home-run speed than Harris.

white1 wrote:Btw, I read an article this morning I think in the Herald dissecting the first round backs.  IMO Javonte Williams is the correct pick hands down.  Compares favorably to Nick Chubb, and reports are his intangibles (leadership, intelligence, work ethic, character) are off-the-charts good.  Sounds exactly like a Flores guy to me, and more home-run speed than Harris.

Which is precisely why I always like taking him whenever I do a draft But not at 18 and not in the first, period. Not when I can get him as low as #50 sometimes. Even if Williams doesn't go that low for real (and I can't see it) he should still be there at 36.

Agree DF at 50 or even 36 he's a great pick.

Outstanding work there, FF - great post.

Here's my take, and it starts with this: I really don't think any of the backs taken last year are, or will be, "great". Taylor is the best of the bunch IMO and there's a lot to like about him...but he is a fumbler and actually got benched because of it early in the season. James Robinson is off to a strong start and should get better. Dobbins is a nice complementary back, but is he a #1? I don't think so. Edwards-Helaire looks like a small scat back with no elite traits. Swift is a keeper and Akers is pretty average IMO. So overall, a few strong players but no one elite IMO (although Taylor has that potential.)

Now this year's RB class is a different story IMO. Harris and Etienne are elite, franchise-type backs IMO. Both are sure-fire first round picks to me, and both are players that can transform an offense. I'm not as high as Williams, though I do like him and I'd put him over any back from last year except Taylor.

Gaskin is a nice player who can do everything good - good runner, good receiver, stellar pass protector. Those traits will give him a long career if he can stay healthy. But is he a #1 back? Nope...at least not on a great team. He's the ultimate #2 back, who can come off the bench and keep the offense rolling or be a quality spot starter when called upon - but you're not designing an offense around him.

For the Dolphins, Harris just makes so much sense. He is an excellent runner and outstanding receiver - and he's a big, bruising back that eats short-yardage downs like a goddamn machine. And you're not getting a back like him anywhere else in this draft. He scored 50 total TDs the past two seasons - 50!!! That's an absurd number. Harris, to me, is as close to a sure thing as any player in this entire draft - and that's why I'd take him at 18 before I take a project edge rusher or any other position. Harris is the "safe" pick at 18 (if he's even still on the board), but he's also the best pick - a player we can build the entire offense around, just like Alabama did, and just like the Titans have done with Henry. This dude will be the catalyst that sparks this offense to greatness.

As much as I love the idea of trading down from 18 and getting more picks, to me the smart play is to stand pat and take Harris.

If we ASSUME Grier is gonna do the logical thing, and not go with the GM-SAFE-Draft-Othodoxy thing and pick the OT at # 6....let us assume Grier is wise and gets the WR (Chase if he is there, but I suspect the BenGALS take him) or the TE (but I am feeling the Falcs take Pitts) or the fall back D Smith at #6.....

So the Phins have added the IMPACT WR (or TE-SLASH-MismAtch Creating All Around Receiver in Pitts) and at #18 they will have four options IMO:

ONE - Trade Down for more picks. I suspect there will be some of the lower 1st round teams looking to jump up to get the Edge Rushers, the RBs, or the O-lineman, they have targeted. The Phins COULD trade down and get more draft loot.

TWO - RB - I suspect all these draftnosticators are blowing smoke and fecal matter and Harris gets above #18 by some sharp team. Would the Phins take Etienne at #18? Not IMO. If Harris is there, the Phins MIGHT take him, but I suspect that Options THREE and FOUR are more likely. IF IT WAS ME.... I would have a hard time bypassing Harris if he is available.

THREE - EDGE RUSHER - All of the top guys have some serious question marks which may be nothing more than over-analisis-zation I am thinking. Kwitty got them short arms. Rousseau had a bad pro day. Phillips has the concussion history. Azeez, Oweh, etc... This PROBABLY should be the pick. A true pass rushing threat that opposing offenses have to account for in the game plan would take the Phins Defense to another level IMHO. And give the other rushers a much better chance of applying pressure. BUT... Is there one WORTH the pick? Is the player the Phins can get at #18 WORTH THAT MUCH MORE than a player they can get at #50 or #81?

FOUR - O-LINE - OT - I keep hearing the Phins have full confidence in Jackson, but then you see all the reports that he failed to perform at the level the Phins were expecting. He was the FIFTH OT taken in the draft. I have to believe the Phins were seriously hoping Wirfs or Becton made it to #18. If the Phins WANT...they could upgrade the OT position with a pick here. Darrisaw, Jenkins, Cosmi, Leatherwood should all be available. But again... Are these WORTH that much more than a Radunz, Eichenberg, or Mayfield you might be able to get later?

FOUR - O-LINE - G - There is only one 1st round rated Guard, Tucker out off USC. Wyatt Davis from OSU might slip into the 1st round. If Grier drafts a Guard in the 1st round he should be fired immediately... but only after being beaten severely with a whiffle ball bat to point he wets himself!!! There are a pile of GUARDS that I think would be perfect for the Phins, and there should be one available in whichever round they wish to select a Guard.

FOUR - O-LINE - C - Landon Dickerson is the only one I would consider in the 1st round. I would bypass C and try to get Josh Myers from OSU later.

Now, this is just MY THINKING on the subject, and as I have learned through bitter experience, my thinking and the thinking of the people in charge of running the Phins draft are often on completely divergent paths!!!

Is EDGE RUSHER more important than RB? Of course, but what you have to factor in is the WORTH off these pass rushers. As we saw with Charles Harris, not all Rushers are created equally!

Would Harris abilities outweigh taking a shot on Phillips that he can avoid more concussion problems in the NFL? Harris running the ball would keep the defense off the field. And running the ball is a QB's best friend.

In a perfect world, the Phins draft Chase at #6 and Jaelan Phillips at #18. Then get Williams at #36. Chase and Williams transforms he offense into something IMPACTFUL, and Phillips gives the Phins defense a dreaded pass rush.

Who knows?

I do think the Phins are dead set on giving Tua the MOST HELP they can give him! If that means a WR and a RB in the 1st round I am fine with it.

JMP wrote:Outstanding work there, FF - great post.

Here's my take, and it starts with this: I really don't think any of the backs taken last year are, or will be, "great".  Taylor is the best of the bunch IMO and there's a lot to like about him...but he is a fumbler and actually got benched because of it early in the season.  James Robinson is off to a strong start and should get better.  Dobbins is a nice complementary back, but is he a #1?  I don't think so.  Edwards-Helaire looks like a small scat back with no elite traits.  Swift is a keeper and Akers is pretty average IMO.  So overall, a few strong players but no one elite IMO (although Taylor has that potential.)

I think you have Taylor's college production confused with his NFL production so far. Yes, he *was* a fumbler in college but in his rookie season he had just one in 268 touches.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/TaylJo02.htm

On the other hand Swift the keeper coughed it up 3 times in just 160 touches

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SwifDA00.htm

DolFan 316 wrote:

JMP wrote:Outstanding work there, FF - great post.

Here's my take, and it starts with this: I really don't think any of the backs taken last year are, or will be, "great".  Taylor is the best of the bunch IMO and there's a lot to like about him...but he is a fumbler and actually got benched because of it early in the season.  James Robinson is off to a strong start and should get better.  Dobbins is a nice complementary back, but is he a #1?  I don't think so.  Edwards-Helaire looks like a small scat back with no elite traits.  Swift is a keeper and Akers is pretty average IMO.  So overall, a few strong players but no one elite IMO (although Taylor has that potential.)

I think you have Taylor's college production confused with his NFL production so far. Yes, he *was* a fumbler in college but in his rookie season he had just one in 268 touches.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/TaylJo02.htm

On the other hand Swift the keeper coughed it up 3 times in just 160 touches  

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SwifDA00.htm

Not confusing Taylor's career. He fumbled in a key situation this past season, and the Colts benched him because of it. While he didn't fumble a lot as a rookie, he does have a history and it came up again in the NFL. Not saying it's a deal-breaker or even a long-term issue - but it is a concern, and obviously the Colts thought so too.

As for Swift, by saying he's a "keeper" I just mean he looks like he'll be a quality starting back. But he simply isn't in the class of the top 3 this year. That was my main point - all the RBs that people loved in last year's draft are not at the level of the "big 3" in this year's class. A lot of Dolphin fans KILLED the team for not drafting a back last year- I think it was a smart move, and allowed us to get a better back this year.

finfanatic wrote:ONE - Trade Down for more picks. I suspect there will be some of the lower 1st round teams looking to jump up to get the Edge Rushers, the RBs, or the O-lineman, they have targeted. The Phins COULD trade down and get more draft loot.

In the modern NFL drafting RB in the first just...makes no sense at all. Go ask the Giants how drafting Barkley 2nd overall is working out for them. Or maybe ask the Cowboys how taking Elliott 4th overall has helped them win a title. Josh Jacobs seems like a nice player, but the Raiders haven't even managed a winning record in two seasons with him. And then you have #10 overall pick Todd Gurley...

It makes even less sense to draft a player with a concussion history and think he'll be just fine in the NFL. The more I look at this edge rusher class the less I like. It may even turn out that NONE of them will be worth drafting when we look back on things in 3 years (if other real life stuff doesn't get in the way).

I cannot reiterate enough, if Williams seems like he'll be at least as good as Harris (who doesn't break long runs which you'd expect a first round RB to do) then it's far smarter to draft him at 36 or even 50 if he makes it that far than it is to take Harris at 18.

If Grier can trade down from 18 and get a future pick or two in the deal, then he should do it all day every day. If schmucks like us can see how weak this edge class is, who's to say actual NFL GMs can't see the same thing and most of them won't still be there at 36 or 50 anyway?

I typically don't like taking a RB early, but I make exceptions for players I think are elite-level. To me, Harris is elite.

I don't think the Giants or Cowboys are sorry that they drafted Barkley or Elliott, especially the Cowboys. And I don't think the Phins will regret taking a workhorse like Harris. I have absolutely no problem using a top 20 pick on an offensive stud that can be the focal point of the offense and get ~30 touches a game. In fact, that's excellent value.

I see a big dropoff from Harris to Williams. Williams is a good player, but he's just not in the same class as Harris, or Etienne.

Trent Richardson was considered elte before the draft too. Just sayin'.

Also, Derrick Henry was the 45th pick in the same draft Elliott was selected at #4. Which player would you rather have right now?

At least we both agree about Smith needing to be the pick at #6 so there's that

I'm REALLY looking forward to the draft thread. Don't think I'll watch it on TV again though, not after the "let's go out of our way to make it as depressing as humanly possible!" theme last year.

I never considered Richardson elite. He was a one-year wonder.

Harris seems more Henry than Elliott to me, but Harris is a MUCH better receiver...and Williams isn't as good as any of them IMO.

But yes - Smith at 6!!!