YESS!!! It's Finally Here!!!

Football Outsiders' SACKSEER projections, that is. And yes, I've been waiting for this to drop all week.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2021/sackseer-2021

Yeah, taking one at 18 is *probably* a big reach. Might even be able to get one of these guys at 50 I think.

Looks like Sackseer agrees with us about this being a weak year for rushers.

Looking at the rest of the list (Jordan Smith at UAB isn't listed, he's one I've had an eye on, since I watch CUSA) Shaka Toney might be one to watch later -- team captain, might well be around at 156.

I am always sort of leery of MADE up position stats. They do give you some sort of metric, but they always seem to be leaning towards speed tests.

There is no clear cut #1 overall edge rusher. Phillips WITHOUT the concussion problem would be it no doubt, based on his Pro Day, but there is a reason Rousseau was the more highly-regarded.

The Phins need a pass rusher on the edge. I hope they get one in the draft.

I'm surprised they have workout warrior.Jayson Oweh rated so high. I just cannot put any faith in a guy that hasn't produced in college. Sure, anything can happen - but chances are, if he couldn't produce against a lower level of competition you're not going to produce against the highest level of competition.

JMP wrote:I'm surprised they have workout warrior.Jayson Oweh rated so high.  I just cannot put any faith in a guy that hasn't produced in college.  Sure, anything can happen - but chances are, if he couldn't produce against a lower level of competition you're not going to produce against the highest level of competition.  

But he runs really fast...and that 3 cone speed means he is a future HOFer!

And vertical leap!

How can anyone question THAT??



You never know I guess. Mike Mamula had great workout numbers and was a good defender but worthy of that high pick?

Sort of like Ronnie Brown's stock going up because of his numbers.

Somebody is gonna take Oweh just because...

I think if I was looking to pick a DE who looked the part, it would be Joe Tryon. He was rated fairly low until the Pro Day. Now I see some mocks where he goes in round 1.

And like Hal says, Jordan Smith is not even ranked?

As a Gators fan, I remember Jordan getting suspended for the whole Credit card scam in 2017. He and a lot of good players for the Gators...

Here is the suspended list.
Kadeem Telfort, a freshman offensive lineman
Antonio Callaway, a junior wide receiver
Jordan Scarlett, a junior running back
Keivonnis Davis, a junior defensive lineman
Richerd Desir-Jones, a sophomore defensive lineman
Jordan Smith, a freshman defensive lineman
James Houston, a freshman linebacker
Ventrell Miller, a freshman linebacker
Rick Wells, a freshman receiver

Note: Antonio Callaway has ALWAYS been a knucklehead and one reason I KNEW giving him another shot was a bad idea!

Jordan has the size and frame to be good DE. And did get recruited to an SEC school. I just wonder how late a round you can wait to take him?

If you want pass rush and playmaking on defense, IMO the correct pick is Micah Parsons. I'd sooner take depth at EDGE later, get the elite LB in round one and watch him bloom.

white1 wrote:If you want pass rush and playmaking on defense, IMO the correct pick is Micah Parsons.  I'd sooner take depth at EDGE later, get the elite LB in round one and watch him bloom.

Or you could be laying the seeds for another locker room dimwit like Richie Incognito? Which I think was somewhat overblown, and most of the fault lies with Queasy Grandpa Joe for not laying the law down to Richie like he should have, but a feral dipshyte in the locker room is as bad as a stinker on the field IMHO.

Any of you old timers remember Gene Atkins and Louis Oliver feud that destroyed the 1995 locker room? And continued into 1996 until JJ cut his dumbarse.

Parsons has got the talent and if Grier and Flores think he is okay, I hope they are correct.

The problem with this draft: other than a couple of great cornerbacks, the first round in this draft class kinda sucks for defense. Parsons is head and shoulders the best defensive player in this draft, and it's really not even close. Of course, he comes with baggage. I have a hard time seeing him falling passed Dallas at 10, but it all depends on what teams found out about him when they did their digging. I just don't see the Dolphins taking him at 6....it's a possibility, sure, but given the character issues I think there's no chance.

I do like Basham and Tryon, as well as Collins. And you know I love my Canes - Rousseau and Phillips. But there are legit question marks about all of them. Most or all of them will go in the first, but I'm just not sure about using a top 20 pick on any of 'em.

Tyron seems the most likely to be a bust IMO, but Basham and Ossai would be fine choices around # 50. Of course, I think we're likely to need that pick for Meinerz with him moving up the charts rapidly. If we can move down from 18, pick up an extra late second/early third, it's easy to see WR/RB/C/DE all being addressed where we'd want.

One possibility to consider is that Pitts is actually the target at 6, if that's the case, then we might see three skill position picks to start the draft. I could see Bateman or Marshall with our second first rounder and Williams at 36 in that scenario.

HalCHorn wrote:Tyron seems the most likely to be a bust IMO, but Basham and Ossai would be fine choices around # 50.  Of course, I think we're likely to need that pick for Meinerz with him moving up the charts rapidly.  If we can move down from 18, pick up an extra late second/early third, it's easy to see WR/RB/C/DE all being addressed where we'd want.

One possibility to consider is that Pitts is actually the target at 6, if that's the case, then we might see three skill position picks to start the draft.  I could see Bateman or Marshall with our second first rounder and Williams at 36 in that scenario.

Yeah Tryon is a workout warrior no doubt. But I keep hearing that he is only going to get better and better. He, supposedly, has a much higher ceiling than some of the other EGDE rushers?

I keep going back and forth on this Edge Rusher issue. If we only KNEW Jaelan Phillips was no concussion-prone. Of course, the last few mocks I have run, Phillips is gone by #18, so...

I think the likely pick at #18 if they go Edge will be Rousseau.

Man, HAL, you know how to get me all riled up. If the Phins come out of their first three picks with Pitts, Marshall and Williams I will dance a happy jig in my Man-Cave!!! And wherever Tua is he will be dancing also!!!

I'd actually be a bit disappointed if we went Pitts-Marshall-Williams. All good prospects, but I feel like Smith-Harris-Banks (my mock) or Smith-Etienne-Moehring (Hal's mock) would both give us more bang for our buck.

In the Pitts scenario, we're getting the #1 TE, a WR that most have ranked no higher than #5, and the #3 RB. In mine and Hal's scenarios, were getting top 2 prospects at WR, RB and S. Let's swing for the fences and get the best of the best for a change.

Plus, as good as he is, Pitts has a limited ceiling IMO...I just don't see a TE being the #1 target in the Dolphin offense, especially as long as Gesicki is still there - it's just not as big of an impact position for us. Unless the Phins do a complete 180 and build the system around Pitts, does anyone really envision a TE catching 90-100 passes in this offense? I can't.

Honestly, I'm at the point where I'll be disappointed with anyone other than Smith at #6. He's just such an ideal fit from both a character and on-field standpoint.

i'm surprised the SACKSEER has Ronnie Perkins from Oklahoma ranked so low. i see him as a legit 2nd round edge prospect who fits the mold of the Steelers/Ravens classic 3-4 puss rush OLB. the college production is definitely there.

I want Hal to be in Grier's ear on draft day on one condition--that he talk Grier out of trading down from #6! His luck is the ONLY way Williams will be around at 50.

Jmp I have a compromise. Smith at #6 but Williams at 50 over Harris at 18 and anyone you want at 36. Whaddaya say?

mercury22nathan wrote:i'm surprised the SACKSEER has Ronnie Perkins from Oklahoma ranked so low.  i see him as a legit 2nd round edge prospect who fits the mold of the Steelers/Ravens classic 3-4 puss rush OLB.  the college production is definitely there.

Kind of surprised to see this too. His issues were all off the field from what I heard from friends in OK. Not that that isn't a big concern too.

DolFan 316 wrote:...but Williams at 50...

psss. just between you and me. the other Carolina RB, Carter, is going to be a better pro.

Merc you may be right but Williams is a tackle breaker, which is a skill none of the RBs on the roster have. And he's not half bad at pass catching, pass pro, or breaking long runs either.

In one of my many many mocks I actually got BOTH of them just for fun.

I don't think Williams makes it to 50, but regardless I'd rather have Harris. I'm not giving up on him...sorry, 316!

And I have a feeling the Phins could surprise everyone and hold out for a RB till they grab Carter in round 3. I think they loved him during Senior Bowl week. He's a smaller back, but tough as nails and IMO just might be a better tackle-breaker than Williams. I feel like Harris is the guy they want, but if they trade down or go pass rusher with that second pick, Carter could be the target later on.

I'd be happy with Carter too don't get me wrong. And he has a far better chance of being there at 50 for sure.

I just think Williams is the power back this offense needs and is a far better value than Harris or any RB in the first.

Why oh WHY can't the draft be moved up to this weekend? (Sighs.)

Yep...if it was me... I draft Chase at #6, Fallback is D. Smith.

AT #18 I go for the best Edge guy left, or if Owusu-Koramoah falls that far I snap him up! He would be phenomenal in Flores defense IMO. Which pushes the EDGE Rusher down, which pushes the Rb down....

At #36, You have to go Williams because he usually doesn't last until #50.

The more I look at this guy, I am thinking Elijah Williams from La. is someone the Phins should look at. But the word is out on him, it seems. I read a list today that had him ranked #10 RB in the draft.  You run a high 4.3s 40 and that is what you get!

Of course, the best RB to draft would be Maryland RB Jake Funk. I can just here the cheers now when they hand the ball off to him, "Bring Da' Funk!!"

Even if he is rated #417 on the draft simulator, it would be worth it.

FWIW Elijah Mitchell from La. Tech reminds me a bit of FAU's Alfred Morris, who ended up making a lot of scouts look foolish once he made it to the NFL. He could surprise in the right situation (I think Morris was better, though--FAU was a bad team his last couple of years after the 2007-2008 classes were gone).

JMP wrote:I'm surprised they have workout warrior.Jayson Oweh rated so high.  I just cannot put any faith in a guy that hasn't produced in college.  Sure, anything can happen - but chances are, if he couldn't produce against a lower level of competition you're not going to produce against the highest level of competition.  

My thought exactly. I was listening to a podcast the other day and they were discussing him. I couldn't help but think Dion Jordan.

Killah Sith wrote:

JMP wrote:I'm surprised they have workout warrior.Jayson Oweh rated so high.  I just cannot put any faith in a guy that hasn't produced in college.  Sure, anything can happen - but chances are, if he couldn't produce against a lower level of competition you're not going to produce against the highest level of competition.  

My thought exactly.  I was listening to a podcast the other day and they were discussing him.  I couldn't help but think Dion Jordan.

Yeah, I mean, it's great to be super-athletic and have the prefect body and all that...but if it doesn't translate to the football field, what good is it? I'm not saying Oweh can't be a great player - maybe he can - but I can't justify using a high pick on a guy that went to a big-time program and didn't produce.

UUH! Dion Jordan. I just knew the Phins had traded up to draft an OLINEMAN, and then was surprised when they took Jordan.

And then was even more surprised that Jordan stunk like a dead skunk on an Alabama Highway in July!!!

The draft is not a science, it is an art, and the hit rate in the first round is like 53%.

The draft is all about highly-paid idiots outthinking themselves and making terrible mistakes while the good teams pick consistently and stay good, except for the outlier new GM that turns a team around. There's a reason the Top 10 picks usually have the usual suspects in there vying for some agent-pumped-up crapola player who will have all the impact of a feather.

It has always been as such.

The draft's not artistic, it's autistic.

Degarmo wrote:The draft's not artistic, it's autistic.

Now that's funny right there. I don't care who you are.

I don't know, DG, but a good Rain man type who had an uncanny knack for picking out players.....