RB, now or later?

i'm not going to argue the value of the running game in the modern NFL. i would just point to the difference Henry made to Tannehill, (healthy) Gurley (17&18) made to Goff, etc.

this isn't to say that an impactful RB must be picked in the 1st round, but the truth is, if Miami wants to get a bell-cow back in this year's draft, they are going to have some competition. the following (reasonably written) article ranks Miami 7th in terms of team needing a RB (behind Pitt, NYJ, Atl, Ari, Buff and NE - note all of the AFC East teams):

https://sports.yahoo.com/top-10-worst-running-back-depth-charts-teams-that-need-serious-help-in-the-2021-nfl-draft-192743464.html

so the question is, if the Phins want a stud RB, can they afford to wait until later in the draft?

Wait until later. Henry was the 45th overall pick in his draft, surely the Fins can take a good RB at 36.

It's been proven time and time again that taking a RB in the first in today's NFL is a tremendous waste of resources. Last year's leading rookie rusher was selected at 41. The only other rookie RB to have 1000-plus yards rushing wasn't even drafted.

Agree with DF - 36 or 50 is a great spot to get a running back at value.

DF316, you make excellent points and i agree in general. but every draft is different. a guy who might be a 1st round pick in one year, may be a 2nd or 3rd would he have been in another year depending on the available talent. for example, there are DL who will get picked in the 1st round this year, but had they been in last year's draft with Chase Young, Derrick Brown and Javon Kinlaw, they would otherwise be pushed in to the 2nd round. available talent and demand for certain positions changes where guys get (or would get picked) from year to year. my point being that the apparent demand for a RB this year (especially within the AFC East) may get guys over-drafted and if the Phins want (need) one of these guys, they may need to consider over-drafting (relative to where RBs were taken in other years). just food for thought.

Merc, suppose for argument's sake that all three other AFC East teams go RB with their first three picks. Theoretically that should mean Harris, Etienne and Williams are all off the board by 36. But even then that shouldn't be a disaster since Carter will almost certainly be there, and you said yourself he'll make a better NFL player than Williams

Realistically I'll be shocked if the Jets don't go RB at 23. But I can't see Belichick taking one at 15 since he's gotten by just fine for years with guys like Kevin Faulk, Benjarvus Green Ellis (undrafted), Stevan Ridley, Dion Lewis, James White and Damien Harris. Not to mention the Pats just drafted Michel in the first round (#31) three years ago. And I can't see the Bills going RB with their first choice either, they'll either be addressing their run D and taking someone like Zaven Collins, or going O-line.

Oui shall see in a week...

HOWEVER...I can't say it wouldn't be absolutely wicked to trade down from 18 to 22 and snag Harris one spot ahead of the Jets

Bills don't need a RB, they just need to give the ball to Owl great Devin Singletary more. :-)

I'd really like to get either Harris, Etienne or Williams myself. We need a true go-to guy. Sermon is probably the best bet to develop into one after that (though Mitchell and Nwangwu could be sleepers.).

I consider RB a priority for the Phins, and I want the back that fits best. I want a big, bruising back that can also catch. That's Harris, and he's the total package on and off the field. He's not getting out of the first round, so I would just stay at 18 and take him. I would rather take a guy like Harris, who I am reasonably sure will be a great pro, rather than reaching for a DE/LB that may or may not pan out.

IMO, Harris and Etienne are both going in the first round, and there's a good chance
Williams does too. I don't want to wait around till round 3 and hope to land the 4th, 5th or 6th best back...just swing for the fences and get the best.

I think they should wait. If one of the top 3 aren't there at 36 then wait until 81 or later. And if any of the top 3 are there at 36 and the Fins pass I am ok with that. From what I am gathering none of them are as good as the crop that came out last year. I'd like them to take a flyer on Chris Evans later in the draft.

I have been looking at the second tier RBs, because I just do not think the Phins will go a for a RB with their top four picks...I hope i am wrong, but....After seeing what Gaskin and Ahmed did behind a healthy Phins O-line, I am wondering if Grier/Flores do not think of the RBs as a interchangeable parts and that if the O-line is improved, so should the rushing attack with later round guys.

One guy I have been looking at is Jaret Patterson from Buffalo. The guy had 26 TDs in 52 Career games. And averaged 24 carries per in the shortened 2020 season. At 5'7" and 185 lbs  I doubt he goes very high, but a late rounder on him MIGHT be worth it. I know MJD likes him.

Another one I am surprised is not getting more touts: Kylin Hill from Miss State. 5-10 214 lbs.

Jermar Jefferson from Oregon State. 5'10" 206 Lber.
Gainwell from Memphis. Perfect name for a RB!
Javian Hawkins - Lousiville. Another 5'8" 183 lbs scatback type.

Anybody know anything about Maryland's Jake Funk? I have read one article where the author(who must be Jake's uncle or agent) compares his skill set to Christian Mccaffreys!!!

Elijah Mitchell -
Trey Sermon -

I think t'were it me, I might have to go for Harris at #18, but then again, if the Phins REALLY believe in TUA's Franchise abilities, RBs like Gaskin, Ahmed, and Jaret Patterson could get the job done.

This is why Grier gets paid the big bucks.

If there's a guy that fits the scheme and will be an impact player at RB, take him. Tua will need all the running support he can get.

I am a huge Trey Sermon fan. He fits right into the top 3 for me in terms of talent, ahead of Williams...BUT...the past two seasons it seems like he's always hurt. It's a shame, because he could be a great player. But I personally wouldn't touch him till day 3....seems too fragile to trust.

JMP, I agree. I was surprised that Sermon seems to be rated so low.

I keep hearing the analyst say he got "hot" for OSU last year? Was he not "hot" during other seasons?

He seems to have the size and speed to make a good RB at the very least.

Football Outsiders' Backcast 2021 is now out. They like Mitchell too, not as high as we are on Williams, but there's a surprise 3rd on their list, Chuba Hubbard (who might well be a value)

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2021/backcast-2021

I like Hubbard as well. But is he a one-year wonder???

After the protest against his HC wearing a conservative News Websites T Shirt, I am sorta leery of Hubbard.

That sort of nitwit-ism is something to avoid at every opportunity.

He does look like a good RB though.

finfanatic wrote:After the protest against his HC wearing a conservative News Websites T Shirt, I am sorta leery of Hubbard.

That sort of nitwit-ism is something to avoid at every opportunity.

He does look like a good RB though.

Well that's it then, Hubbard's off my wish list. I had no idea but I shouldn't be surprised. It's just more typical far leftism "rules for thee but not for me". I can say and do what I want but if you disagree with me, you can't. My side can gather in large groups to commit violent crimes and felonies but your side can't gather in groups of more than six. And so on.

Fortunately so far, we haven't seen any of that garbage on this team. So far. Although the whole "we've suddenly decided to skip workouts because the virus" thing is bordering on SJW virtue signaling.

HalCHorn wrote:Football Outsiders' Backcast 2021 is now out.  They like Mitchell too, not as high as we are on Williams, but there's a surprise 3rd on their list, Chuba Hubbard (who might well be a value)

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2021/backcast-2021

Now I know how JEGnj felt when someone else used to start a game day thread

Oh well, I'll be checking it out anyway

Good points about Hubbard, and just my opinion, but I think the whole thing with Gundy might have hurt his stock. He was mentioned as a 2nd/3rd round type going into the 2020 season. Now it looks likely he's entrenched on Day 3 and likely go 6th or 7th at his position.

HalCHorn wrote:Good points about Hubbard, and just my opinion, but I think the whole thing with Gundy might have hurt his stock.  He was mentioned as a 2nd/3rd round type going into the 2020 season.  Now it looks likely he's entrenched on Day 3 and likely go 6th or 7th at his position.

In a sane world it would. In today's society and NFL it'll actually raise his stock

I am now hearing that there will be a run on centers in the second round. That could force RB to be the pick at 18. I hope not, but if they wait until 36 to take one they might lose out on Humphries, Dickerson and even Meinerz who's shooting up the board and may not be there at 50.

I still won't be happy with Harris at 18 but Smith/Pitts, Harris, a center at 36 and edge at 50 would be the best possible draft combo not involving Hal's incredible luck IMO.

Found this interesting...

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/barry-jackson/article250630534.html

If NFL Network lead draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah — who I find to be very credible — is correct in his belief that no running back will go in the first round (an opinion he based on talking to numerous teams), then running back at 36 makes the most sense — with North Carolina’s Javonte Williams the preference here if Najee Harris is off the board.

But the Dolphins last year kept bypassing backs and they could again gamble that an appealing back could be available at 50 (Williams) or in the middle rounds, such as two physical, bruising Big 12 runners — Oklahoma’s Rhamondre Stevenson (the Dolphins staff coached him at the Senior Bowl) or Oklahoma State’s Chubba Hubbard.

While that might disappoint some Dolphins fans, it wouldn’t shock me if the Dolphins don’t feel compelled to take a back at 36. How could anyone be shocked by that after Miami repeatedly eschewed top running back prospects at 30, 39 and 56 last April?

RB now. I didn't see anything from Tia that makes me believe he can be successful without a complete team. The offensive line opened holes for the backs this year. I watched a film breakdown. The one thing that was missing was a back that could accelerate through the hole without falling after minimal contact. The difference between an elite back and a place holder. We have place holders on the team. Get the upgrade.

[quote="DolFan 316"]

If NFL Network lead draft analyst Daniel Jeremiah — who I find to be very credible — is correct in his belief that no running back will go in the first round (an opinion he based on talking to numerous teams), then running back at 36 makes the most sense — with North Carolina’s Javonte Williams the preference here if Najee Harris is off the board.

I love DJ...but IMO he's wrong here. At least 2, and probably 3, backs are going in round 1.

This draft stuff will drive you crazy IMO.

Is a RB (Najee or Travis E.) at #18 and an Edge Rusher at #36 (or a Center) better than an EDGE Rusher at #18 (Azeez or Phillips) and then get a RB (Williams) at #36 or a Center (I would draft Dickerson, but if GB bypasses him I will be shocked, shocked I say!!!)?

Where do you put the "EM" in EM-Phasis! Or rather where will Grier go for IMPACT?

I am leaning towards saying WR at #6 and Edge at #18. But what I would prefer is trade down at #18, a couple of spots for an extra mid-rounder maybe, then use the #36 and that extra mid-rounder to move BACK UP into the late 1st for a RB or the Center!

I doubt 8 or 9 rookies make the roster anyway. Grier is gonna have to hit on some IMPACT with his first three or four IMO. If that costs the Phins #36 , a mid-rounder, and a 7th, so be it.