The cost of Gesicki

But the continued presence of Gesicki is going to require a heavy investment into his next deal. What should Miami expect? Spotrac has provided a “market value” forecast for Gesicki’s next deal — and it’s right around $10M in annual average salary.

https://sports.yahoo.com/dolphins-cost-expectations-mike-gesicki-134204295.html

the article and linked Spotrac analysis are interesting. and while i don't think Gesicki will ever be a fully complete (as in blocking) TE, he has improved and is a passing threat (most TE routes from the slot). given the provided comps in the article, i think $10M/year would be a bargain and i would be happy in the range of $12m/year given the anticipated salary cap jump and that he's just outside the top echelon TEs. any much higher than that and the Dolphins will have a very hard choice to make, but that could be cushioned by Hunter Long's develop...or hampered by any lack thereof.

of course this made me chuckle...

But Gesicki’s averages through three seasons outperform the aggregate averages of these four talents prior to their own respective deals — and with the anticipated salary cap jump that is set to come for 2022, Gesicki may be in line for an even bigger figure than the one Spotrac has forecasted for him. So if Miami does intend, with no questions asked, to keep Gesicki in place? They may want to try to iron out the deal sooner rather than later to help ensure that the cap growth doesn’t afford Gesicki and his camp more wiggle room for asking power.

"iron out the deal sooner rather than later"... this, plus taking a risk and showing a little faith in an injured player is what they did for Howard - and see where that has got them...with a holdout one year into the deal. but perhaps Gesicki will be a little more reasonable in honoring his bargain.

Depends on his chemistry with Tua, and Long's development as a rookie. Lots to play out.

At the very least, he's been a quality pick at the position up to this point. Out of the entire draft of TE's only Andrews has been more productive so far.

I'd extend Gesicki's contract as soon as possible so he doesn't hit free agency - assuming he's on board. I think he's a cornerstone piece on the offense, and IMO his best days are still ahead of him. He's a hard worker and a good teammate...exactly the type of player Flores and his staff want in this locker room.

I think it'll probably take about $13 million a year on average - and I'm fine with that given the projected cap increases over the next couple of years.

It's an interesting issue I can't forecast which way the team will go.

Think about this. What if Fuller plays really well this year, using his speed and deep catch ability to constantly force defenses to play deep opening up the entire offense. I'd argue the money spent on Gesicki could be used to lock up Fuller long term, and have a net greater impact on our offense.

I know that's a lot of "ifs", but I'm not sure what to do about Gesicki just yet...

white1 wrote:It's an interesting issue I can't forecast which way the team will go.

Think about this.  What if Fuller plays really well this year, using his speed and deep catch ability to constantly force defenses to play deep opening up the entire offense.  I'd argue the money spent on Gesicki could be used to lock up Fuller long term, and have a net greater impact on our offense.

I know that's a lot of "ifs", but I'm not sure what to do about Gesicki just yet...

The trade of You Know Who should open up sufficient space to re-sign Gesicki, IF that's what Grier wants to do. I thought it was understood that Fuller was a one-year mercenary.

I thought it was understood that Fuller was a one-year mercenary.

Yep, he is under just a one year deal. However, ideally he fits so well and plays so well that both player and team work to sign a longer term deal. That would be the best outcome.

I don't think Fuller will have anything to do with Gesicki. The cap will go up significantly, and the Dolphins really don't have many huge contracts aside from Howard and Jones. They will have money for Fuller and Gesicki, as well as Ogbah if needed.

white1 wrote:

I thought it was understood that Fuller was a one-year mercenary.

Yep, he is under just a one year deal.  However, ideally he fits so well and plays so well that both player and team work to sign a longer term deal.  That would be the best outcome.

What's the sky like in your world?

Seriously, I really do envy you for having the ability to be as optimistic as you are despite everything.

Why pay a TE that kind of money when he underwhelms at blocking? Teams know when Gesicki is in the lineup it's a pass. Gesicki is a hindrance to the development of the team. Might as well just convert Parker to the position.

Gesicki is average and can be replaced.

As time goes on I become more and more convinced that Gesicki will not be a Dolphin next season. At best maybe they franchise or transition him for a year. He's essentially a slot receiver. I figure he either has a big year and prices him way out of the Fins price range or continues his normal solid year and they just move on.

CarsonChris wrote:Why pay a TE that kind of money when he underwhelms at blocking? Teams know when Gesicki is in the lineup it's a pass. Gesicki is a hindrance to the development of the team. Might as well just convert Parker to the position.

Gesicki is average and can be replaced.

Because you aren't paying Gesicki for his blocking - you are paying him for his receiving. He's a modern-day TE and is a key to any offensive success this team will have, and he is far from a hindrance. Do you think the Raiders give a damn that Darren Waller can't block? Nah, I don't think so.

Gesicki is far above "average". He is a 2nd-tier TE in this league, possibly top 5 depending on how you rank the position. He might have the best hands of any TE in the NFL, and he's coming off his best season yet. He should be a part of the future of the Miami Dolphins, and I suspect he will be.

Hunter Long will take Gesicki and his 45 yards per game. Plus he will block. I envision a better goal line game with Long in goal line situations. More versatility. Gesicki isn't worth the pay. He's average. and can be replaced. Best if we trade him.

Merc wrote:"iron out the deal sooner rather than later"... this, plus taking a risk and showing a little faith in an injured player is what they did for Howard - and see where that has got them...with a holdout one year into the deal. but perhaps Gesicki will be a little more reasonable in honoring his bargain.

Yeah, maybe, but if Gesicki makes the pro Bowl and actually leads the league in an important category, maybe he might WANT more money?

I just do not understand why everyone gets hung up on "loyalty" to the team when the contracts are all NOT GUARANTEED!!! You can sign a five year deal and the team can cut you the next year and only eat the bonus money.

If the team can cut you at any time, and not have to show any "loyalty" why is it the player has to be the one to show "loyalty"?

This is business and it is all about the bottom line. Period. Phans want it to be more but it is not.

Gesicki is good, but so far he hasn't shown he is in the Travis Kelce or Darren Waller league IMO. If they can sign him for a team friendly deal, okay.

Like I said... It would have REALLY been interesting to see what Grier did if Pitts had been there in the draft. He could draft Pitts and then trade Gesicki!



Sorry, JMP.

As JMP points out, I doubt Hunter Long is gonna be the same TE as Gesicki, but if he turns into anything close to the shade of Gronk... I haven't seen anybody say that but I have seen some analysts say he will be very good.

finfanatic wrote:

Gesicki is good, but so far he hasn't shown he is in the Travis Kelce or Darren Waller league IMO. If they can sign him for a team friendly deal, okay.

Like I said... It would have REALLY been interesting to see what Grier did if Pitts had been there in the draft.   He could draft Pitts and then trade Gesicki!



Sorry, JMP.

As JMP points out, I doubt Hunter Long is gonna be the same TE as Gesicki, but if he turns into anything close to the shade of Gronk...  I haven't seen anybody say that but I have seen some analysts say he will be very good.

Travis Kelce will be considered the greatest TE of all time when he retires. No shame in Gesicki being a lesser player than Kelce.

The Phins didn't want Pitts at the top of the draft, so that remains a moot point!

Hunter Long will never be Gronk, but he has potential to be a good, solid TE IMO. The Phins desperately want a strong 2 TE set, as evidenced by the way they keep collecting TEs, and I think the hope is that the Gesicki-Long combo is exactly what they've been seeking.

I agree about the Phins wanting Gesicki long term. Trouble is, if they do not re-sign him now, I suspect he is gonna get some offers that Miami will not want to match.

If Gesicki has the kind of season he should have if Waddle and Fuller do what they were brought in to do for the offense, Gesicki will probably make the Pro Bowl and put up some GE-Sick numbers.

His price after the season is going to likely be far higher than they could sign him for NOW.

And I still say Grier would have had a HARD DECISION to make if Pitts was there at #6.

Gesicki is a pass catching TE. Miami is bringing in developmental pass catching TE to learn the system. Hopefully one of them catch on

finfanatic wrote:I agree about the Phins wanting Gesicki long term. Trouble is, if they do not re-sign him now, I suspect he is gonna get some offers that Miami will not want to match.

If Gesicki has the kind of season he should have if Waddle and Fuller do what they were brought in to do for the offense, Gesicki will probably make the Pro Bowl and put up some GE-Sick numbers.

His price after the season is going to likely be far higher than they could sign him for NOW.

And I still say Grier would have had a HARD DECISION to make if Pitts was there at #6.  

A lot depends on Gesicki himself: will he sign an extension or will he test the free agent market? Of course, the Phins could also decide to franchise tag him. So, a lot of possibilities...but yes, if Gesicki has a big season his price will certainly go up. A lot of teams in the league would love to have a receiving TE like him.

I would say that, with Kelce and Waller in the AFC, it would be nearly impossible for Gesicki to make the Pro Bowl barring an injury to one of those guys. But he can still put up big numbers and be a great player without the Pro Bowl nod.

I don't know why this is so hard for you to get, FF, but the Phins told you all you needed to know about Pitts when they traded down. That was a crystal clear message saying "we are not going to draft Pitts". I can't understand why you think he was still on their list - if he was, they never would have traded down, knowing that they'd almost certainly miss out on him by doing so. It is obvious that Waddle was the target. I suppose if Waddle went top 5 and Pitts was still there at 6...maybe. But even then, I think they would taken Smith or traded down. Most teams simply don't value the TE position that highly in the draft, and I think the Phins are in that group.

Here's something else to consider. If Tua proves to be the man this year, that puts the Dolphins squarely in a title conversation, maybe not immediately but soon, and it'll strengthen the Phins' offer. If we are just average, other than a nice state tax law, there's not much draw to staying a Dolphin if there are other teams out there that will give a shot at a ring for more money.

Degarmo wrote:Here's something else to consider.  If Tua proves to be the man this year, that puts the Dolphins squarely in a title conversation, maybe not immediately but soon, and it'll strengthen the Phins' offer.  If we are just average, other than a nice state tax law, there's not much draw to staying a Dolphin if there are other teams out there that will give a shot at a ring for more money.

Excellent point, Degarmo. That's what just happened in Tampa...they were able to keep all 22 starters, even the free agents, because players wanted to stay there and compete for another ring.

JMP wrote:I don't know why this is so hard for you to get, FF, but the Phins told you all you needed to know about Pitts when they traded down. That was a crystal clear message saying "we are not going to draft Pitts". I can't understand why you think he was still on their list - if he was, they never would have traded down, knowing that they'd almost certainly miss out on him by doing so. It is obvious that Waddle was the target. I suppose if Waddle went top 5 and Pitts was still there at 6...maybe. But even then, I think they would taken Smith or traded down. Most teams simply don't value the TE position that highly in the draft, and I think the Phins are in that group.

I don't understand why you think Grier maybe assumed the Falcons would not draft TE when their Defense stinks and Pitts would be there at #6? Grier did trade down A MONTH BEFORE the draft, before Pitts shot up the draft boards like he did. I can remember drafting Pitts in the mocks at #18 a few times early on.

I agree Grier PROBABLY would not have taken Pitts even if he was there, but I would dearly have LOVED to see what decision Grier would have made if Waddle, Pitts and Chase were all there. Just speculation on my part, but unless someone opens up a few years down the road, we may never know the whole story. Or it may have been Waddle was the target all along.

Like I said all along, "If you think Waddle is the next Tyrek Hill then you have to draft him."

finfanatic wrote:

JMP wrote:I don't know why this is so hard for you to get, FF, but the Phins told you all you needed to know about Pitts when they traded down. That was a crystal clear message saying "we are not going to draft Pitts". I can't understand why you think he was still on their list - if he was, they never would have traded down, knowing that they'd almost certainly miss out on him by doing so. It is obvious that Waddle was the target. I suppose if Waddle went top 5 and Pitts was still there at 6...maybe. But even then, I think they would taken Smith or traded down. Most teams simply don't value the TE position that highly in the draft, and I think the Phins are in that group.

I don't understand why you think Grier maybe assumed the Falcons would not draft TE when their Defense stinks and Pitts would be there at #6? Grier did trade down A MONTH BEFORE the draft, before Pitts shot up the draft boards like he did. I can remember drafting Pitts in the mocks at #18 a few times early on.

I agree Grier PROBABLY would not have taken Pitts even if he was there, but I would dearly have LOVED to see what decision Grier would have made if Waddle, Pitts and Chase were all there.  Just speculation on my part, but unless someone opens up a few years down the road, we may never know the whole story. Or it may have been Waddle was the target all along.

Like I said all along, "If you think Waddle is the next Tyrek Hill then you have to draft him."

If Grier wanted Pitts, he would have stayed at 3 and picked him. At the time of the trade, nearly every person on the planet had Pitts going at either 4 or 5...there was almost zero chance that he would be there at 6. By trading down to 12 and then back up to 6, it was made 100% clear that Pitts wasn't Miami's target.

If you want to know what Grier would have done if Waddle, Pitts and Chase were all there at 6, I'll tell you - he would have taken Waddle. He was the #1 player on their board after Lawrence, and he is the reason they made the trade from 12 to 6. It's not a mystery, and there is no need to speculate: the Dolphins drafted their #1 target at 6. We already know the whole story, and the proof is that the Phins traded down from 3, knowing that by doing so they would almost certainly lose out on Pitts and Chase. If either player was #1 on the Phins' board, that trade down never happens.

But for all of the production put together, the NFL appears to not be buying Gesicki as a top-flight player at his position. Because as was revealed by ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler and a poll of 50 NFL executives, Mike Gesicki did not make the cut as one of the NFL’s ten best tight ends entering the 2021 season.

The latest positional release of a series by Fowler came out today and was dedicated to the tight end position — and two teams had multiple tight ends make the cut:

New England: Hunter Henry & Jonnu Smith

Philadelphia: Dallas Goedert & Zach Ertz

You also saw the usual suspects of Kittle, Kelce and Waller at the top of the charts, too. But no Gesicki, at least based on 2020 production, is a bit of a surprise. Perhaps it gives further clues into how the NFL and its decision-makers perceive Gesicki, who spends about 80% of his snaps detached from the formation and in a slot/perimeter wide receiver role. The vast majority of names to be included in the top-10 over him are players that offer more in the run game and as an in-line player; so perhaps that’s a road block that league executives struggle to navigate with valuing Gesicki.

https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl-executives-omit-dolphins-mike-150530714.html

hmm, interesting. can the rest of the league really not value Gesicki as at least a top 10 TE? if true, i wonder if this affects his potential value on the FA market and therefore could result in an even more favorable contract for the Phins?

It all hinges on this year. He's got the skills to be Top 5, he just needs someone to feed him the ball.

PFF just ranked him 8th, for what it's worth.

mercury22nathan wrote:

But for all of the production put together, the NFL appears to not be buying Gesicki as a top-flight player at his position. Because as was revealed by ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler and a poll of 50 NFL executives, Mike Gesicki did not make the cut as one of the NFL’s ten best tight ends entering the 2021 season.

The latest positional release of a series by Fowler came out today and was dedicated to the tight end position — and two teams had multiple tight ends make the cut:

New England: Hunter Henry & Jonnu Smith

Philadelphia: Dallas Goedert & Zach Ertz

You also saw the usual suspects of Kittle, Kelce and Waller at the top of the charts, too. But no Gesicki, at least based on 2020 production, is a bit of a surprise. Perhaps it gives further clues into how the NFL and its decision-makers perceive Gesicki, who spends about 80% of his snaps detached from the formation and in a slot/perimeter wide receiver role. The vast majority of names to be included in the top-10 over him are players that offer more in the run game and as an in-line player; so perhaps that’s a road block that league executives struggle to navigate with valuing Gesicki.

https://sports.yahoo.com/nfl-executives-omit-dolphins-mike-150530714.html

hmm, interesting.  can the rest of the league really not value Gesicki as at least a top 10 TE?  if true, i wonder if this affects his potential value on the FA market and therefore could result in an even more favorable contract for the Phins?

What a joke. Zach Ertz can barely stand up and is closer to retirement than he is a big season. Smith is a small, glorified H-back who has lesser career numbers than Gesicki despite playing one more season. Henry's and Goedert's stats are almost identical to Gesicki's over the last two seasons - but Gesicki has more TDs and more 20+ yard plays than both of them.

As for spending a lot of time in the slot, yes that is true of Gesicki...it is also true of Kelce, who in 2020 was targeted out of a slot position more times than any TE in the league. And Waller lined up as a WR 35% of the time in 2002. Why is that a knock against Gesicki, but not Kelce and Waller? Waller, BTW, might be an even worse blocker than Gesicki.

Anyway, Gesicki is clearly a top 10 TE in my eyes, and probably closer to top 5. And he'll get paid like it, by Miami or another team.