Early Mock

Round 1 Pick 22: Treylon Burks, WR, Arkansas (A-)
Round 2 Pick 29 (K.C.): Kenneth Walker III, RB, Michigan State (A+)
Round 3 Pick 29 (K.C.): Henry To'o To'o, ILB/OLB, Alabama (A+)
Round 3 Pick 36 (COMP): Braxton Jones, OT, Southern Utah (A+)
Round 4 Pick 16: Jamaree Salyer, OG, Georgia (A+)
Round 4 Pick 20: Brandon Smith, ILB/OLB, Penn State (A+)
Round 4 Pick 29 (K.C.): Justyn Ross, WR, Clemson (A+)
Round 5 Pick 15: Brenton Cox, DE/OLB, Florida (A+)
Round 6 Pick 20: Michael Maietti, C/OG, Missouri (A+)
Round 7 Pick 3: Cameron Latu, TE, Alabama (A+)

Would anyone keep Grier if he did this?

Of course we need to see who the coaches are and what happens in free agency, but just taken at face value...SIGN ME UP! I'd prefer a bigger RB (Spiller, Robinson, Hall), but this is an "A" level draft.

BTW Mel Kiper currently has the Phins taking Penn State WR Jahan Dotson in round 1. Seems lazy to me, with Kiper just putting down a near-clone to Waddle. Dotson is a good player for sure, but I think the Dolphins need to add a different type of receiver and not spend top resources on another small, fast guy - at least not in the first round.

JMP wrote:BTW Mel Kiper currently has the Phins taking Penn State WR Jahan Dotson in round 1. Seems lazy to me, with Kiper just putting down a near-clone to Waddle. Dotson is a good player for sure, but I think the Dolphins need to add a different type of receiver and not spend top resources on another small, fast guy - at least not in the first round.

Dolphins need a big bodied #1 receiver that can take the top off a defense or win the jump ball in the end zone. A Devante Parker sized receiver without the injured body. I fully expect Grier to draft the big receiver from Alabama, the one that blew his knee out in the championship game.

I get the humor about drafting for injury, but IMO that receiver would be an absolute steal at our draft spot late in the first.

JMP wrote:Of course we need to see who the coaches are and what happens in free agency, but just taken at face value...SIGN ME UP!  I'd prefer a bigger RB (Spiller, Robinson, Hall), but this is an "A" level draft.

Agree. Two potential playmakers with the first two picks. Burks would be a sure thing for us if we'd kept our pick instead of SF's, but....well, water under the bridge.

Here's my "2023 accumulation of a crapload of picks" mock, which nevertheless gives us help at OT, a likely starting C, and two big-bodied WR's plus a very promising backup QB to groom and possible success at the position if Tua gets injured:

MIA
67.

Darian Kinnard
OT Kentucky
trade icon
MIA
81.

Desmond Ridder
QB Cincinnati
trade icon
MIA
84.

Alec Lindstrom
OC Boston College
trade icon
MIA
99.

Alec Pierce
WR Cincinnati
trade icon
MIA
118.

Mykael Wright
CB Oregon
MIA
157.

Christian Watson
WR North Dakota State
MIA
163.

Jerrion Ealy
RB Mississippi
trade icon
MIA
179.

Obinna Eze
OT TCU

2023 PIT 1st
2023 LV 2nd
2023 SF 3rd
2023 GB 3rd

Nice work, Hal. Setting up for an insane 2023 draft!!

Desmond Ridder should be getting more attention IMO. Dude is a winner.

Okay, first...I expect Burks to zoom up the draft boards after his workouts.  I do not see him there at 26 or later.
Gotta look at some of the other big tall WRs...the Cinccy guy, the guy from Clemson maybe.

Second, I will be SHOCKED if the Phins use a "high" pick on a QB. Maybe a late pick for someone like the Brock Purdy??? A good backup QB, not someone to challenge Tua IMO.

Third, if Miami can get Jameson Williams I would consider it a steal just like W1 says.  6'2" at 189lbs and I think he could carry some more weight without losing too much speed. Not gonna happen, but....

Remember, I was right about Waddle, so... As we all know from posting with DF316 lo these many years.... crow about the correct picks and dis-remember when you get them wrong!  



And lastly... Man, would it be nice if Grier had traded the 49ers pick instead of the Phins pick! What a schmuck!

I gave the mock a go and got this....

Burks was there at #26, but I think Linderbaum will be the Dolphins Center for the next ten years!

26. Tyler Linderbaum OC Iowa - Plug him in on day one and never look back.

50. Darian Kinnard OT Kentucky - An instant upgrade at RT, and he has not yet fully refined his game. He is big and athletic enough to move to LT with some work on technique IMO. But getting a major upgrade at the Phins BIGGEST Problem area ( I ain't gonna go for a QB THIS YEAR... Tua gets one more year, hopefully with a better O-line) with two long term starters at OC and RT makes this a great draft already IMO.

99. Erik Ezukanma WR Texas Tech - Big WR with a long wing span and has a huge upside. They need somebody to challenge Parker or at least see if a challenge will keep Parker healthy.

118. Chris Hinton DT Michigan - I like his motor. This guy will never be a star but he makes the defense better.

122. Dameon Pierce RB Florida - LB for Lb the strongest guy in the weight room at Florida. I think he might be one of those RBs that is BETTER in the NFL than he was in college. One of the reasons Mullens got axed was the mistake of not making Pierce his main RB IMO.

157. Chasen Hines OG LSU - Needs to work on his technique, but about as wide as he is tall!! 6'3" and 349 lbs. If the new HC - OC change the scheme this would not be the pick. ( I like the OG from Boston better and even the Kirkland guy from Washington ( I think) but... Anyway, I suspect/hope Kindley will/can get another shot. With a real O-line Coach and a more competent OC this time.

179. Dontario Drummond WR Mississippi - Another Big WR who has a big upside. He looked good in college...with Lane Kiffin as the HC and Matt Corral throwing him the ball anyway.

201. Alex Wright EDGE UAB - My Sleeper pick. Wright would eventually look great opposite Phillips IMO. I suspect his workout number will move him up the draft boards.

223. Anthony Russo QB Michigan State - Big 6'4" 230 lb developmental QB - Again, no way in heck will Grier use a pick on a QB IMO.

It is way early and it will be interesting to see how these Mocks CHANGE over time.

Love it, FF! That's a draft that really solidifies the lines and adds some playmakers.

PFN has updated their Draft boards based on Senior Bowl and other updates I guess.

Also, the compensatory draft picks must have been awarded, as the Phins pick numbers have changed?

It is still WAY TOO EARLY for this but it interesting to see how the player rankings have changed.

I expect there to be wholesale changes in the rankings before the actual draft. And the Phins HOPEFULLY will shore up some spots in free agency.

29. Treylon Burks WR Arkansas - If he is there at #29 I will have an excretory episode and will need a change of underwear... especially when Grier bypasses him to take an OT.

62. Darian Kinnard OT Kentucky - I am still not sure why he is rated this highly, but I will go with it for now...

94. Alec Lindstrom OC Boston College - I would prefer Linderbaum, but cannot go wrong with the value at pick #94 IMO. Center would be SOLVED for the Phins for years I am thinking. I also like Cam Jurgens from Neb.

101. Dameon Pierce RB Florida - He is creeping upwards in the rankings I am hearing after having some excellent workouts in the Senior Bowl. I would love for the Phins to get Spiller, but they would have to use their first pick for that I think. And I doubt Grier is going to draft a RB highly if at all. Unless McDaniel... SO...

124. Micheal Clemons EDGE Texas A&M - I had the choice between Clemons and Isiah Thomas from OK. I think there might be a good chance Grier goes EDGE at #29 for Jermaine Johnson or one of the other top guys. A lot will depend on Ogbah's free agency situation IMO.

132. Troy Andersen LB Montana State - I was looking at Beavers and Chenal and Clark from LSU, but I heard some NFL talking heads raving about this guy at the Senior Bowl. He seems like he might turn out to be Vrabel-like and that would be a very good thing for the Phins.

158. Grant Calcaterra TE SMU - A red zone TE. I still do not understand why the Phins do not use their TEs more in the redzone. After taking Long last year, I doubt Grier will go TE again, but a lot will depend on if they lose Symthe.

170. Kyle Philips WR UCLA - Another Senior Bowl phenom who had an exceptionally good week. I heard him compared to Hunter Renfroe of the Raiduhs!

199. Akayleb Evans CB Missouri - Big CB. I think he is already better than Iggy, but that is not saying much. so....

246. Dustin Crum QB Kent State - Big developmental QB. McDaniel might pick one, but Grier will not IMO.

Nice work again, FF.

If Burks is somehow available at 29, that will be the best pick of the entire draft!  Sadly, I still think he's going top 10.

Ok, pre-combine post SB mock.

I traded around a lot, picked up 3 extra picks including Houston's 2nd rounder in 2023 without giving up any picks from that haul, and still IMO got Tua a lot of help.  Also found a backup to develop in the mid-rounds. Players kept falling to me that shouldn't have been there after the first two choices:

MIA
42.

Zion Johnson
OG Boston College
trade icon
MIA
64.

Christian Watson
WR North Dakota State
trade icon
MIA
91.

Kenneth Walker
RB Michigan State
trade icon
MIA
101.

Abraham Lucas
OT Washington State
MIA
102.

Alec Pierce
WR Cincinnati
trade icon
MIA
112.

Tariq Woolen
CB UTSA
trade icon
MIA
120.

Nik Bonitto
EDGE Oklahoma
MIA
124.

Tyler Smith
OT Tulsa
MIA
145.

Brock Purdy
QB Iowa State
trade icon
2023 HOU 2nd
2023 SF 5th
2023 BAL 6th

Those first 3 picks alone would make this a stellar draft!

I haven't bothered to check to see if this is accurate, but to me it seems like we've drafted more big-school players the last 4-5 years than we did in previous years. I wonder if that will continue, or if we'll go back to looking at more smaller-school players?

Good job, Hal. I am not sold on Watson, but he has the size for sure. I think Alec Pierce might be a sleeper pick.

There sure seems to be a host of good picks in the 70 thru 120-ish range IMO.

Trading down for more picks in that range could work out well.

Of course, the higher picks have a smaller chance of being stinkers, so...

I think the free agent period is going to tell us what Grier and Co do. Although, with McDaniel in the mix for the first time this year, who knows?

finfanatic wrote:

There sure seems to be a host of good picks in the 70 thru 120-ish range IMO.

Trading down for more picks in that range could work out well.

Yeah, that may be the way to go. I'm still digging in, but so far this looks like the worst draft class in years. I think the real value could come in rounds 3 and 4.

So along those lines, I ran one with a focus on A) targeting that 70-120 range this year, and B) gathering as many picks as possible for a likely deeper draft next year.

Traded all the way down to 88, accumulating this for next year:

MIA 1st
SF 1st
MIA 2nd
CHI 2nd
TB 2nd
TEN 2nd
MIA 3rd
ATL 3rd
DAL 3rd
MIA 4th
MIA 5th
CHI 6th
MIA 6th

ending up with only 5 2022 picks, all between 88 and 120. Here goes:

MIA
88.

Christian Watson
WR North Dakota State
trade icon
MIA
90.

Alec Pierce
WR Cincinnati
trade icon
MIA
101.

Tyler Smith
OT Tulsa
MIA
114.

Tyler Badie
RB Missouri
trade icon
MIA
120.

Bailey Zappe
QB Western Kentucky

Great Google Moogly, Hal!!!

I think the NFL would have a duck-fit if a team traded like that!!

I think OT Tyler Smith is going to move up. I also have been looking at OT Dare Rosenthal out of Kentucky too.

I have already noticed some of my "sleeper" picks getting rated far higher than they were early on.

Alex Wright EDGE out of UAB was at #212 but is now around #140 IIRC.

And it seems like RB Brian Robinson Jr Bama is moving up too. Ahead of RB Dameon Pierce FLA it seems.

What is the general consensus on RB Tyler Algeir (SP) out of BYU?

Algier is considered a solid prospect. Another of those mid round types that the 49ers found success with in recent years.

Rosenthal is a good fit for this system, very athletic. Cole Strange out of Chattanooga is another I'm hearing is a great IOL fit for the new system.

finfanatic wrote:Great Google Moogly, Hal!!!

I think the NFL would have a duck-fit if a team traded like that!!

If this team traded anywhere close to that degree IRL the NFL would definitely step in and take away that entire 2023 draft haul on general principle, even with no evidence of Ross tanking.

I myself am an advocate of trading out of the first if neither Penning nor Burks are there. But I don't have the cojones of Hal to trade down *that* far

I'm also assuming that with this draft Hal is assuming the Fins sign multiple FA O-linemen. Which is what I would do or at least try.

But then again I'm just hoping I make it to the draft what with World War 3 maybe about to break out...

finfanatic wrote:Great Google Moogly, Hal!!!

I think the NFL would have a duck-fit if a team traded like that!!

I think OT Tyler Smith is going to move up.  I also have been looking at OT Dare Rosenthal out of Kentucky too.  

I have already noticed some of my "sleeper" picks getting rated far higher than they were early on.

Alex Wright EDGE out of UAB was at #212 but is now around #140 IIRC.

And it seems like RB Brian Robinson Jr Bama is moving up too.  Ahead of RB Dameon Pierce FLA it seems.

What is the general consensus on RB Tyler Algeir (SP) out of BYU?

I think because it is a weak class, a lot of the "sleepers" are going to go higher than expected.

Allgeier is an excellent prospect IMO. He had an off-the-charts final season at BYU, with 1600+ rushing yards and 23 rushing TDs. And he also had 28 catches. Good size and balance, but my question is just how fast is he? He doesn't seem to be overly fast when I watch him, and I think the Dolphins will place a premium on speed. He also had some fumbles. Offseason workouts will be huge for him. I think he'd be an excellent pick for Miami if he makes it to the 3rd or 4th.

DolFan 316 wrote:I myself am an advocate of trading out of the first if neither Penning nor Burks are there. But I don't have the cojones of Hal to trade down *that* far

I'm also assuming that with this draft Hal is assuming the Fins sign multiple FA O-linemen. Which is what I would do or at least try.

I do not think Penning is THAT MUCH better than Kinnard or Tyler Smith where I would take him in the 1st round. But they need an OT or two for sure.

I HOPE the Phins trade down, but, I agree there are some players I would stand pat and see if they make it to #29.

How about Tyler Linderbaum OC? Would getting a perhaps perennial pro-bowl center make a difference on the Phins O-line?

Penning OT... I think he will be good, but is he THAT MUCH better than some of the other OTs.

Burks at WR...yeah... How About Drake London at WR as well.

And then, one of the Edge guys might slide. There seems to be a big drop off from the top top guys, to the early 2nd round and then everyone else.

Also, consider if the Phins trade away Howard, might they be looking for a CB.

I like some of the mid-round guys Wright, Woolen, Taylor, but after that...

If Kair Elam or one of the other top guys slides, might the Phins go CB?

Free agency MIGHT give us a better indication, but it will be interesting to see if Grier is still using his "weird" draft lateral value board to size up players or if McDaniel makes him re-calculate?

Also, consider if the Phins trade away Howard, might they be looking for a CB.

Side note, and sorry in advance for the "rant". Not saying it will happen but it's certainly in the realm of possibility. The combination of Howard perpetual want for more money, and the Fins trying to hold the line on him playing under his current contract, could lead to a departure.

It's bad enough we keep hiring the wrong head coach. Hopefully we got that one right, now.

Another thing we CONTINUE to do, and must STOP, is trading away / releasing talent creating holes on the roster - ON TOP of the holes that are already there.

Now, I will admit, I thought the problem was bigger than it probably is. One of the beat writers created a list of the players we let walk over the last ten years... there really was very little in the way of "ground breaking" talent, or even quality depth, on that list. I guess I'm thinking about trading away guys like Fitzpatrick and Tunsil - which SHOULD be over since we were tearing the roster down intentionally to the bare bones.

But - BUT - the team needs to be very thoughtful this offseason.

One, Howard. Look - good teams trade away guys like Howard all the time. The difference is they have a young emerging starter waiting in the wings to take that role. We DO NOT. Iggy was the plan, and he may still pan out especially with Surtain / Madison coaching, but he's not ready for that role now. Not close. If we did trade away Howard, now we have a big hole at corner, added ON TOP of the other needs like offensive line, receiver, running back, EDGE, Tight End.

And speaking of tight end... Gesicki. I'm so tired of hearing how "he can't block". What he can do is create mismatches in the passing games, and make plays when we need them. He is a PROVEN playmaker. All we have behind him is a lackluster Smythe, an unproven Long, and a grab bag of Carter/Shaheen. If we fail to re-sign Gesicki, what's our plan at TE? Sign a free agent? That almost never works out. Use a valuable draft pick?

Finally, EDGE. I know Ogbah will be expensive. He's also a very good, reliable, stout EDGE that can rush the passer and play the run very effectively. That is not easy to replace. We have TONS of cap space. Sign our own guys first, especially on defense because we know exactly how they fit and how they can perform in our scheme. STOP MAKING THE VALUE calculation, dumping guys like Ogbah and then drafting the next bust like Charles Harris to fill the hole we just created.

Anyways, that's the end of my rant.

My advice? Franchise tag Gesicki, giving the staff a year to fit him into the scheme and determine if a long term deal makes sense (my guess is it will make sense). No harm in delaying a long term deal a bit. Sign Ogbah to an extension. If you want to save money, make it a 3 year deal so he gets another shot at free agency - he will still get a good chunk of guaranteed cash a deal can be struck. Do whatever it takes to make Howard happy. I don't care if you need to do another rework/extension. Do it. He's too valuable in this defense and we don't have anyone behind him to fill that role.

After reading that I just have one thing to say.

PREACH AWN, WHITE1!!! MAH BOI TELLIN' IT LIKE IT IS!!!

That's good advice W1.

I doubt the Phins will listen, but... Good advice anyway.

My guess is if they let Gesicki or Ogbah listen to offers, both of them will be gone!!

The Howard thing is... weird. The Phins paid him and then he starting being great and all, and the price for a great Cb went up, so... I agree they should keep him, but... I will not be surprised if they trade him away and are looking for a CB in the draft.

(sigh)