Game thoughts: Week 14, Dolphins at Chargers

For the second consecutive week, the Dolphins got thoroughly ass-kicked by a west coast team. Also for the second consecutive week, the Dolphins fielded arguably the worst offense and defense in the entire NFL. The score may have been closer this time, but make no mistake – despite this being just a 6-point loss, the game was a blowout and the Dolphins weren’t in it for a second.

A couple of weeks ago, we were talking about Tua as a legitimate MVP candidate, and the offense was firing on all cylinders. Now, Tua is a trainwreck and the offense struggles to gain even one yard. It’s an absolute nightmare.

There is only one play worth mentioning on offense – and it was a mistake: in the second quarter, Jeff Wilson ran for a first down, fumbled at the end, Terron Armstead had it and then lost it – and Tyreek Hill scooped it up and took it to the house for a 57-yard TD! It was one of the most incredible – and unlikely – TDs I’ve ever seen! And that was pretty much the only positive play we saw from the Miami offense, aside from a Tua to Hill TD. In the middle of the 3rd quarter, Tua dropped the ball in the bucket for Hill for a 60 yard TD on a deep sideline pass to make the score 17-14, but that play turned out to be an anomaly on an otherwise horrific offensive night. Jason Sanders kicked a garbage-time 55-yard FG, so I guess that’s a positive. Yay.

Tua was embarrassingly godawful overall, the running game was non-existent (despite the Chargers giving up over 150 yards a game on the season), Jaylen Waddle was missing in action again, Wilson left the game with an injury and Hill played sparingly with a leg injury…it was just an absolute disaster.

As for the defense, they were disgustingly horrendous in the first half. Just like last week, they couldn’t get any stops on 3rd down and they left receivers wide open over and over. Justin Herbert carved them up and looked like a Hall of Famer. Complete ineptitude by the Dolphins. Things got significantly better in the third quarter, as they got tighter in coverage and got some big stops on 3rd down. Unfortunately, with the team trailing by just 6 points in the 4th quarter, when the team needed a stop more than ever, the garbage Swiss cheese D returned and allowed a back-breaking 17 play, 8:39 minute, 79-yard FG drive that put the Chargers up by 2 scores and ended the game. Just brutal. On the positive side, Christian Wilkins was simply unblockable all night, living in the Chargers backfield, and Jae Phillips got a bunch of pressures and was stout against the run.

I could talk about more bad officiating (horrible roughing call on a Jae Phillips sack, no penalties on the Chargers RT who had at least 5 uncalled false starts, etc.), but why bother?

Nothing more to add. While the Dolphins should be getting stronger and fighting for playoff position, they are instead falling apart and doing their best to drop completely out of the race. After next week’s inevitable curbstomping from the Bills, the Dolphins will be 8-6 and on life support. This once-promising season is now spiraling down the drain.


Hero of the Game: Christian Wilkins. The dude is just a beast, and it sucks that he is part of such a terrible defense. Jae Phillips also had a strong game.

Goat of the Game: Everyone not named Tyreek Hill, Christian Wilkins or Jae Phillips, including the coaching staff. This Dolphins team just sucked from top to bottom.

I’m here

We are not good

That’s all

Sorry guys that’s all I e got. I’ve seen this season before

JMP wrote:Unfortunately, with the team trailing by just 6 points in the 4th quarter, when the team needed a stop more than ever, the garbage Swiss cheese D returned and allowed a back-breaking 17 play, 8:39 minute, 79-yard FG drive that put the Chargers up by 2 scores and ended the game.  Just brutal.

That's been the pattern since the Bills game. Fins keep it close going into the 4th and then come apart like wet tissue paper. Leading the Bengals by 1 after 3, lose by 12. Trail the Jets by just 2 after 3, lose by 23. Cut the Vikings' lead to 6 in the 4th, lose by 8. Cut the 49ers' lead to 6 in the 4th, lose by 16. They clearly used up all their clutchness VS the Ravens.

I could talk about more bad officiating (horrible roughing call on a Jae Phillips sack, no penalties on the Chargers RT who had at least 5 uncalled false starts, etc.), but why bother?

From the anti-Tua rule enacted after 3 games that somehow never seems to actually be used for any other team, to the ridiculous 3-game road stretch in December (two straight in Cali is one thing, but to follow that up with a game in Barfalo???) to the apparent game-rigging after the 8-3 start, it's obvious the NFL absolutely, positively did NOT want this team reaching the playoffs and will do anything it takes to keep them out.

I admit it, I never saw a loss coming like this. The D finally gives up less than 23 on the road, only for Tua to forget how to play QB??? That's literally the last way I thought they'd lose this game to this team.

white1 wrote:I’m here

We are not good

That’s all

Sorry guys that’s all I e got.   I’ve seen this season before

If it's any comfort, I'm even MORE convinced Boyer needs to be fired than I was before. I'm talking before the Bills game. Why bother having him play the Tom Olivadotti role of punching bag?

Then again maybe he should stay and suffer as punishment for his ineptitude, hmmmm

Again this is why it's hard being positive and optimistic about this team. Every time you get a glimmer of hope they break your heart.

DolFan 316 wrote:I admit it, I never saw a loss coming like this. The D finally gives up less than 23 on the road, only for Tua to forget how to play QB??? That's literally the last way I thought they'd lose this game to this team.

Please don't make this loss solely about Tua. The offense barely even saw the ball in the first half and fourth quarter, because the defense could not stop the Chargers on 3rd down. They allowed the Chargers to drive the ball for almost 9 minutes and kick a short FG to close out the game. The Chargers had the ball for 40 minutes and converted 9 of 18 3rd down situations, and did not turn the ball over.

Tua and the offense were terrible - absolutely. But the Phins still had a chance to win in the 4th, and the defense just could not stop Herbert. I think this defense is allergic to turnovers. Then again, it's hard to get INTs when you never cover a receiver.

Bottom line: it's not the offense OR the defense - it's both. An offense that can't get first downs or score, and a defense that can't get off the field or force turnovers. That's a losing combination.

Time for McDaniel to become the "genius" he's been branded. Figure out how to run the ball behind this crappy OL, and figure out how to get Tua to do something besides throwing to Hill and Waddle in the middle of the field. There are still 3 winnable games on the schedule - McDaniel needs to figure it out.

Then again, with this garbage defense it probably doesn't matter what McD does with the offense.

Now that I can see straight, I will offer a couple of thoughts.

- McDaniel was right - this offense needs a strong running game to be effective. We don't have one. Not even a poor running game. Rather, it's non-existent. In any case - the failure to have any semblance of a rushing attack needs to be a major focus this offseason. Clearly the approach of "let Tua throw all day to Hill and Waddle" has run its course.

- The defense is just as bad as I thought. What the hell was Boyer running on 3rd and goal from the 20? He effectively surrendered 19 yards, teeing up the Chargers with a literally no-risk 4th and goal from the 1 with not enough time left for us to answer. It's like he was running a last-second, hail mary defense or something? Fireable - for that one play alone.

- The offense timing seems to me to be way, way off. No different than last week in the 49ers game. What happened? We were very sharp for the first half against Houston, lighting up the scoreboard right out of the gate. Dallas proved that no one can take Houston lightly or face the consequences - so it's not like we were playing a college team. I don't get it.

- Instead of getting better late in the season, we are getting worse. I can only hope it's injuries taking a toll. Because the unsettling alternate theory is our coaching staff is failing the team. Not good enough game planning, not good enough play calling, not good enough player development. I really hope that's not the case - or we are in for a long few years.

Great post, white

white1 wrote:- What the hell was Boyer running on 3rd and goal from the 20? He effectively surrendered 19 yards, teeing up the Chargers with a literally no-risk 4th and goal from the 1 with not enough time left for us to answer.  It's like he was running a last-second, hail mary defense or something? Fireable - for that one play alone.

That 3rd down play was just disgusting, and completely summed up the season for the defense. Stop the offense on first down, stop the offense on second down, surrender a ridiculous big play on third and long. Same shit every week. Just inexcusable. Seems like every opponent knows exactly what play to run on 3rd and long to beat us - every damn time. When we get a team in 3rd and long - they have us exactly where they want us.

white1 wrote:- The offense timing seems to me to be way, way off.  No different than last week in the 49ers game.  What happened?  

The 49ers taught the rest of the league how to stop us. I've posted this several times already, but the key is: drop the safeties deep, drop the LBs deep, and clog the middle of the field to disrupt the timing of the routes. And if you can hit Hill or Waddle at the line to further mess up the timing - even better.

Of course, the key to preventing the defense from doing that is to either run the ball or throw screens beneath the coverage. But as we know, the Dolphins OL is completely incapable of run blocking and no one on the team other than Sherfield can block on screens. It's up to McDaniel to figure it out - knowing that he doesn't have the right personnel.

One thing that is killing us is the TE position - specifically, Durham Smythe. He is on this team to be a blocker, but his blocking skills have deteriorated to the point where he literally can't block anyone anymore. I don't know what happened to him, but he has become a liability.

W1 makes some excellent points.

First, as DF316 pointed out in another thread, this is the pattern from Tua. He shrinks in the big games when it really matters. Sad to say, but that appears to be the case. The bigger the game, the smaller he plays. And as Jenni points out, this is the pattern from the Phins; show you a glimmer to make you HOPE, and then collapse like a house of cards under a flamethrower's fury!!

Two, right there at the end of the Houstons game, when the Phins had a chance to put another TD on the board, the wheels came off the offense and they had to kick a FG, and Tua got bent up like a pretzel, remember?? He has not been the same QB since. I wonder if he has some sorta injury? Or maybe PTSD about getting almost injured for the season. Something is up for sure as he has gone from one of the most accurate to couldn't throw it in the ocean from the deck of a boat in the middle of the ocean!

Three, Boyer... Like I have always said, Boyer without Flores equals stinker, but even Flores D got their arse beaten by good physical teams, so... I think this Defense needs a big mean nasty LB to take over and become the leader of the defense. This D used to have two good cover CBs, but not even X is looking like he used to. And when the best players on the D are CBs, that ain't a real tough physical D that inspires fear in the other team IMO. I think it is the schemes, but... This D needs an Identity. A play making LB who inspired the other players would do that IMO. Like Parson maybe? Oh, and boot Boyer and bring in someone who will make life difficult for the opposing QB and not let them go up and down the field like they were Brock Purdy! I mean Herbert...er... Josh Allen!

Four, Someone said the 49ers showed the league how to stop Tua and the Offense... I think it was the Steelers who first started playing more man to man on the middle routes and focusing on removing the middle of the field from consideration for Tua. The timing of the passing game relied on having an open receiver somewhere over the middle it looks like to my amateur viewing.... And without it, Tua is lost. This is McD IMO. He is a first time HC and am betting the Phins keep doing the same thing for the rest of the season. There is no magic bullet to fix the offense this season, and with the shape of the Oline...unless McD comes up with a new set of plays designed to get Tua back in rhythm and on time, I fear the season is lost.

I call it the Lucy Trigger... Just when you think the Phins are good, are gonna be playoff contenders, gonna win the AFC East and maybe.... THIS TIME will be different. Ol' Charlie Brown is really gonna get to kick that ball Lucy is holding. And then...Lucy yanks the ball away just like always. The Phins were playing SO GOOD before the bye that even I was coerced into thinking the Lucy Trigger would not set in on this team. Surely? But just like always... That BEYOTCH yanked the ball out and left all of us kicking at the air and landing gruesomely on our posteriors!!

And this time, I suspect it might be the most gruesome we have seen in a long time. I can see there is still some who thinks the Phins are gonna win two of the next four. The Lucy Trigger has been pulled. The season is headed down the porcelain vortex at an ever-increasing rate IMO. No way now how do the Phins beat the Bills, or the Pats IMO. Not in the cold. I heard the Phins had heaters on the sideline for the Chargers game!!!

And unless the Home D rears up and gets a mess of turnovers vs the Pack... or the Pack is just going thru the motions I suspect the Pack will outscore this off-time off-target no rushing offense.

And the Jets... That D may be playing to get into the playoffs... for another shot at the Bills! I suspect they come into Miami, kick the Phins, steal their lunch money and smooch their women while daring the Phins to do something about it!



Yep. That Lucy Trigger is BRUTAL this year.

finfanatic wrote:I call it the Lucy Trigger... Just when you think the Phins are good, are gonna be playoff contenders, gonna win the AFC East and maybe.... THIS TIME will be different. Ol' Charlie Brown is really gonna get to kick that ball Lucy is holding. And then...Lucy yanks the ball away just like always. The Phins were playing SO GOOD before the bye that even I was coerced into thinking the Lucy Trigger would not set in on this team. Surely? But just like always... That BEYOTCH yanked the ball out and left all of us kicking at the air and landing gruesomely on our posteriors!!

And this  time, I suspect it might be the most gruesome we have seen in a long time. I can see there is still some who thinks the Phins are gonna win two of the next four. The Lucy Trigger has been pulled. The season is headed down the porcelain vortex at an ever-increasing rate IMO. No way now how do the Phins beat the Bills, or the Pats IMO. Not in the cold. I heard the Phins had heaters on the sideline for the Chargers game!!!

And unless the Home D rears up and gets a mess of turnovers vs the Pack... or the Pack is just going thru the motions I suspect the Pack will outscore this off-time off-target no rushing offense.

And the Jets... That D may be playing to get into the playoffs... for another shot at the Bills! I suspect they come into Miami, kick the Phins, steal their lunch money and smooch their women while daring the Phins to do something about it!



Yep. That Lucy Trigger is BRUTAL this year.

I might have to start calling you The Hammer, 'cause you absolutely NAILED it

In fact, it'll be the most brutal Lucy Trigger in franchise history. Even the '93 team didn't lose its last SIX...This would be the equivalent of the '93 team starting 9-1 and missing the playoffs with a healthy Marino!

At least last year's Ravens did it first, that's a tiny consolation...

Yes, both sides of the ball, offense and defense, sucked in totality. There were some redeeming qualities on the defense, but not quite enough. Wilkins played awesome and Phillips played very well. The defense did put pressure on Herbert, but it was only pressure (not finishing) and he dealt with it. How may times did it seem like a Phins’ pass rusher was aiming for a spot – and got there only to have Herbert side step the rush and find an open receiver. And speaking of that – is X Howard done? He looked awful. And there were some very poorly designed schemes with large gaps in the defensive line alignments just daring the Chargers to run through it. And they did, especially on Ekeler’s 2nd quarter 1 yard TD run. There was a clear hole – on a supposed goalline formation – and Baker seemingly wanted no part of any tackle. But even as awful as the defense played, with just a little help from the offense, they did barely enough that this still could’ve been a win.

I don’t even know where to start with the offense. The first 3 series amassed a grand total of 5 yards resulting in 3 punts. And the Phins only scored on the 4th drive because of a wacky fumble recovery. The most successful offensive play in the whole first half was a fumble! Tua only completed 3 of 15 in the first half. That is abysmal. That is more than negligence in being unprepared – that is supreme level ineptitude.

“The defenses that we’ve played have been exactly what we’ve expected to play, what they’ve put on film,” Tagovailoa said. “It really just goes back to the details on how we play our offense and we’re not all dialed in with that.”

“It was more about their plan was better than ours and they outplayed us in that phase,” McDaniel said.

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/nfl/miami-dolphins/article269847927.html

that sounds like the Phins know what’s coming, but can’t do anything about it cause they know they suck. Disrupting routes and dropping more guys into coverage isn’t guru level shit. Its basic football. And if Tua and McDaniel don’t have the ability to overcome that then they’re worthless.

mercury22nathan wrote:that sounds like the Phins know what’s coming, but can’t do anything about it cause they know they suck.  Disrupting routes and dropping more guys into coverage isn’t guru level shit.  Its basic football.  And if Tua and McDaniel don’t have the ability to overcome that then they’re worthless.

This is why I keep coming back to this place, because you guys are the only ones who can bring me catharsis after moments like this.

If a QB is great and a coach is smart through the first 10-11 games, but they both suck in December, then are they really great/smart at all?

At least this game appears to be a wake up call to the "oh, we can afford to lose to the 49ers" crowd who thought this team could just take December games off for some odd reason

mercury22nathan wrote:

that sounds like the Phins know what’s coming, but can’t do anything about it cause they know they suck.  Disrupting routes and dropping more guys into coverage isn’t guru level shit.  Its basic football.  And if Tua and McDaniel don’t have the ability to overcome that then they’re worthless.

Again, it's gameplanning. McDaniel needed to change things up - run more, call some screens, try a couple of end-arounds, etc. - and he didn't. There's all sorts of ways to get the D back in the formations you want them in, but McDaniel didn't make any attempt to do so. He simply called the same offense we've run all season, despite the fact that it got blown up last week and he had to know that the Chargers would do the same thing. Just terrible preparation.

One Play that still Burns My Ass was the 3rd Down Completion to Allen where he did the finger point afterwards, If #28 would have turned his head it was a Pick 6 but Not for this Team that can't get an Interception, Than Howard Playing the Trail Technique on Williams Bomb but that Doesn't Work when He is 15 Yards ahead of You. Don't need to say anything about the Offense it has been said already. Also if You are Blitzing the Qb don't play Soft Zone Behind it.

And so the really disheartening thing is that SF and the Chargers weren’t doing the same thing on defense.

While other teams often have played a soft zone against Miami, the Chargers stuck to the Dolphins receivers like magnets, using press man with plenty of help. They blitzed him on only six of his 28 dropbacks. Tagovailoa went 8 for 22 when he wasn’t blitzed, 2 of 6 when he was.

The Chargers played man coverage on 52 percent of Tagovailoa’s drop backs, and Tagovailoa was 4 for 15 on those throws. Tagovailoa faced man coverage only 30 percent of the time in previous games, per ESPN.

This was “the blueprint to stop this Miami offense, not San Francisco two weeks ago,” Orlovsky said. (The 49ers played a lot of zone and Tagovailoa simply missed throws.)

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/barry-jackson/article269430767.html

Prolonged issues passing the ball — Tagovailoa only threw for 145 yards and completed a season-low 35.7 percent of his passes — prompted questions regarding whether the Chargers used the previous game against the San Francisco 49ers as a template for stopping the Dolphins’ offense.

After the game, Chargers coach Brandon Staley told reporters they had a different game plan.

“[San Francisco] didn’t play pressed up like we did tonight,” Staley said. They played quarters, off [coverage] most of the time, or two-deep, so their game plan was completely different than ours. Structurally, it’s not even close to being the same in the secondary. They use more of their linebackers to get it done, their pass rush. Our secondary tonight really answered the call. Our secondary was on them in a lot of different ways, and you’ll see that on the tape.”

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/nfl/miami-dolphins/article269914372.html

So its not like a blueprint had been established (well, maybe now), but rather Tua and Miami’s offense utterly failed against two separate approaches – with no ability to adjust to either one. And now maybe Buffalo will show the league a third way. Which would then mean, its not the defense and what they are doing that is the problem, but rather a complete collapse on offense – and QB who can not perform when everything isn’t laid out perfectly for him to succeed and a coach who can't adjust.

“I never thought I would say this in a million years,” ESPN analyst and former Jets coach Rex Ryan said. “But [Chargers coach] Brandon Staley outcoached this Dolphins team so badly in this game it’s amazing. How about you run it down the Chargers throat like every other team has?”

I suspected this was the case when everybody kept talking about how open the receivers were in the 49ers game. That's the REAL disheartening part--the 49ers' game plan *shouldn't* have worked, and only did because Tua forgot how to pass the ball!

And just like the 49ers seemed to just assume Tua would constantly miss the receivers their D kept leaving open, the Chargers seemed to assume the Fins wouldn't even TRY to run the ball against them--and they were right!

The Fins' offense is Tua, Hill and Waddle. Period. A modern NFL offense needs more. They don't run (31st in attempts) and aren't that effective when they do (only 7 teams are worse in yards per attempt). Hill has 41 more catches than Waddle so far, and Waddle has 33 more than the next best guy (Sherfield). That's just insane. A third WR or TE barely exists, it's more like an offense from the '70s and '80s. Alec Ingold has more catches and TDs than Cedric Wilson (remember him being hailed as a big signing?). The RBs are near non-factors in the passing game, with none of them even having 20 catches yet.

I know I know, the '84 Fins kicked ass with just Marino Duper and Clayton, right? Well first off that was a different time when the concept of a third WR was still in its infancy. Second, Nat Moore was worlds above any third WR this team's got. Third, the running game in '84 was also significantly better (in fact the Fins would not have that many yards rushing again for 18 YEARS). Fourth, the TE trio of Joe Rose, Bruce Hardy and Dan Johnson was also miles above the TE group of today--and were used far more effectively.

The miracle isn't that the offense has been solved, it's that they were so good with just Tua throwing to a couple of guys to begin with.

finskev wrote:if You are Blitzing the Qb don't play Soft Zone Behind it.

Easily the most frustrating thing about this season. On what planet does it make sense to send 5+ guys at the QB and then play 10+ yards off the receivers? Yeah, I get it - you don't want to give up the big play. So instead you let the other team pick up easy first downs, control the clock, keep your (at one time) high-powered offense off the field, and make your defense tired. It's really the dumbest thing I can imagine, and Boyer just won't stop doing it.

As a defense, the one thing you can NEVER do is give the offense easy, uncontested plays. But that's what the Dolphins do every single week, particularly on 3rd down. You can put a monkey at QB, and he'd hit a wide open receiver every time even if there's pressure. It's just too easy to convert third downs against this defense...it's literally no more difficult than playing a game of catch with your buddy in the backyard. It's SO damn frustrating to watch.

Does anyone remember TMQ? (Tuesday Morning Quarterback).

He talked AD NAUSEUM about "The Blitz" and how in many situations statistically it is far better to play base defense. Makes it harder for the offense to convert.

Hold on, let me see if I can find an old link to illustrate the point:

And consider the Washington Redskins. Using a conventional 4-3 with little blitzing, the Skins finished fourth in defense in 2008 and 10th in 2009. This year, seeking to "make plays" on defense, Washington switched to a blitz-a-rama 3-4. The Redskins are now last in the NFL in defense, and just surrendered 30 points to the hapless Rams. Not much of a testimony to the supposedly magical 3-4.

Here's the link: http://www.espn.com/espn/page2/story?page=easterbrook/100928_tuesday_morning_quarterback&sportCat=nfl

Blitzing only works if you get to the QB in such a way that it impacts his ability to complete a pass - a sack, a fumble, a hit that cause the ball to be off-target, whatever. But blitzing and getting no pressure or non-impact pressure is a waste of time - all it does it make it easier for the QB to complete passes. The Dolphins' blitz this year usually leads to no pressure or non-impact pressure - and we play 5-10 yards off the receivers on the back end, so it compounds the problem by making it easier for the QB to beat the pressure.

I'm fine with continuing to blitz - but only if Boyer starts calling man coverage on the back-end. If we get beat deep, so be it - I'd rather give up a quick score than suffer death by a thousand cuts like we did last week.

Probably the best write up I’ve seen so far for what went wrong with Miami’s offense.

Even when they tried to get Hill open through jet motion, the Chargers ensured they took away the thing Tua and Mike McDaniel want most on a play like this: the middle of the field. Tagovailoa has a league-leading 998 DYAR when throwing to the middle of the field. It's what the new-look Miami offense is built off. For the second week in a row, a defense has taken it away, and it has resulted in a loss. In Week 13, the San Francisco ran a ton of Cover-2 and Cover-6 concepts, with Fred Warner lurking in coverage over the middle. This caused processing issues that slowed down the Dolphins offense. Tagovailoa finished the day with a 54.5% completion rate, two interceptions, three sacks, and a lost fumble in what had been Miami's worst game by passing DVOA before Sunday night.

This week, while the Chargers did mix in some zone coverages, most of their defensive looks came through man. In those man routes, the Chargers leveraged Dolphins receivers away from the middle of the field. Los Angeles was willing to ride Dolphins defenders out away from the middle of the field and toward the sideline because they were confident Tagovailoa could not make the throw to that area. Adding some extra safety help to the center of the field means that Tagovailoa needs to look elsewhere on this route; the middle of the field is a sea of powder blue jerseys. But the ball is thrown anyway, because the middle has been open for the Dolphins all year, and before the snap that coverage showed the middle of the field was open.

Staley also threw in post-snap shifts in coverage to further force Tagovailoa adjust his reads after the snap. Some looks ended up radically shifting the defense for the Chargers.

There were open runs for the Dolphins on Sunday night, with Miami averaging nearly 5 yards per carry on 19 attempts. Tua ended up tying his season-high for scrambles, a feature that used to be a much bigger part of his game prior to this year. This should be McDaniel's bread and butter, seeing as he was the 49ers' run game coordinator for three years before taking over as offensive coordinator in 2021. Miami has yet to rely heavily on a rushing attack, but it was open most of the time against the Chargers.

The real problem, though, comes from the passing attack. Rushing can't be the answer. It can certainly help at times, but it can't be a catch-all panacea on a team built to attack through the air. Miami's adjustment against San Francisco came in the form of quick passes to the flats. That can serve situationally, getting the ball out into space, when a defense approaches Miami the way the 49ers did: lots of two-high, zone-heavy looks with emphasis covering the middle of the field.

Some fault lies with Tagovailoa. According to RBSDM, Tagovailoa led all quarterbacks (min. 100 plays) in completion percentage over expected through Week 12 at 5.6%. Over the last two weeks, Tagovailoa had a CPOE of -13.7%. That's just shy of a 20-point swing in expected accuracy. The Chargers were outright willing to give him the outside of the field in the confidence he wasn't going to make the throws necessary to beat them. Whether it is a question of arm strength, accuracy, or a combination of the two for that sideline hole shot, they bet against Tagovailoa being able to adjust his game, and they won big.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/any-given-sunday/2022/have-tua-tagovailoa-and-miami-dolphins-been-figured-out

So you can guarantee whether through a complicated zone, tight man, physical bump or some combination thereof, the Bills will take away the middle of the field until Tua proves he can throw to the outside (can he – I don’t know – I guess we’ll see). And given the weather, it would behoove Miami to force the run and stick to it whether it initially works or not (frustrating that they could've done this against the Chargers, but didn't - hopefully McDaniel has learned). If nothing else, the run or threat of it will hopefully establish playaction helping to open the field a little more.

Having said that, I am now predicting given Wilson’s hip injury, the Buffalo Bills game will be an out of nowhere, return performance of Salvon Ahmed (think Parmalee Oct ’94 or Lamar Smith 2000 playoffs against Colts). Do I really think this will happen…I don’t know, but its about the only hope I got at this point.

Great post, merc.

It's amazing that none of our opponents really tried to take away the middle of the field before San Fran, at least not in any consistent way.

Tua hit on the 60 yard bomb to Hill on the sideline, so maybe there's hope that the offense can adjust???

mercury22nathan wrote:(think Parmalee Oct ’94 or Lamar Smith 2000 playoffs against Colts).

Oh Merc...you sure do know how to sweet talk a guy

Seriously, in all of my 40-year DolFanhood, those are my all-time favorite RB performances. Yes, even more than You Know Who's empty calorie '02-03 seasons that didn't even lead to a playoff appearance let alone win

Now off I go to think about Parmalee and Smith some more

JMP wrote:Great post, merc.

It's amazing that none of our opponents really tried to take away the middle of the field before San Fran, at least not in any consistent way.

The Steelers did in the second half and Tua looked awful then, too. Flores knew the secret all along.