Will Someone Here Good At Math...

Do me a favor by calculating the odds of an 8-3 NFL team losing its final six games? My guess is that it's got to be lower than 10% at least.

From leading the division and second in the conference to out of the playoffs in 5 weeks. It’s gotta be a record.

If we just go with flipping a coin. Lets just say the Phins had a 50/50 shot on all five games...

Probability(five losses in a row) = Favourable Outcomes/Total Outcomes = x/n
Given that there are 5 games played
Total observations 2 ( a Win or a Loss) to the fifth power = 32
So the sample is 5 losses {L, L, L, L, L}
It can occur only one time
So the required outcome is 1
P (5 losses) = 1/32
Therefore, the probability that all 5 are losses is 1/32.

or 3.125%

You would have to get the actual Phins winning probabilities and use those to get the real probability.

That's why I have been saying there is SOMETHING WRONG with the team, and is not all just the players stinking up the joint.

There is something else off with the team.

Sort of reminds me of the last Shula season where the feud in the locker room between Atkins and Oliver totally hosed the whole season?

Of course, IMHO, I think this has something to do with McD? I do not have anything to base this on, but...

Something is wrong somewhere,

Thank you FF!!!

And if that's the odds for *five* straight losses, than the odds for six must be lower by about half I'm thinking.

In all seriousness, what does your usually accurate source say? Or is even HE baffled, befuddled and bewildered by this?

I have one friend who says he is hearing there is some "turmoil" in the organization and he "thinks" Ross is the instigator? All completely unsourced. But you can never count Ross out on being his usual dumbarsed self IMO! Usually, if this stuff is true, there is a rumble in the media by someone, but so far... nothing I have seen. Just the usual stuff about should the Dolphins stick with Tua.

The other friend says he has not heard anything specific but he gets the impression the "bloom is off the Rose" when it comes to the Dolphins and Tua. He thinks the Dolphins have realized...Just like my fear when they drafted Tua, he is smallish and unable to stay healthy.

If the Jets lambaste the Phins this week like I suspect, who knows what Ross may do?

I would:
A) keep McD AT LEAST one more year, but I am not too confident he is going to be a great HC.
B) Deposit Boyer in the nearest trash receptacle - Who to bring in?
C) Send Grier packing but who are they going to bring in?

I suspect Ross is going to stay the course, but the fall from 8-3 to 8-9 is just a gigantic hurdle to overcome for next year in as far as the confidence the team lacks in McD IMO.

Nothing I've seen suggests that this team lacks confidence in McDaniel. Far from it. The team is playing hard and the games have been close. It's just been a mistake here and there that leads to a snowball effect that turns the game around. And, as I've said several times, one of the main issues is the late-game long scoring drive that the defense gives up EVERY SINGLE GAME...the drive that takes the game from "close and within our grasp" to "the game is essentially over even though there is a bit of time on the clock". And can the defense EVER force a damn turnover in a key spot????

If it seems like I'm blaming the defense for the losing streak - yes, I am. Offensive turnovers have been a big problem as well, no denying that, but at the end of the day the defense cannot get off the field when it needs to. Yes, the offense has struggled...but can the D make ONE impact play when we are down to our 3rd string QB? It's like they are allergic to turnovers. I guarantee that Boyer does not emphasize turnovers in practice, and I've also stated that his defensive scheme is actually designed to not get interceptions. That's a big problem.

But the reality is, as pissed off and upset as we all are, this team has not been awful, at all. That's the sad part. Every loss in this stretch was winnable during the game, but each time things just went south in a hurry.

If the pattern holds, Ross will execute another "half measure" and most likely would fire Grier. It's actually fairly logical for these reasons:

- You can point to the several failed first round draft picks, but at this point none loom any larger than taking Tua over Herbert. While I will say I think Tua has a higher ceiling, the floor is way lower - because of durability risk which was well known before the draft.

- Grier hired both Flores and McDaniel. He's getting similar results no matter who the coach is. His working style may not be suited to an NFL GM. So collaborative he doesn't have his own vision for what the team should be. Because of that, the team just drifts based on new coach preference for philosophy, offense scheme, defense scheme, etc. How can you build a talent base that way?

- Grier thought "the defense is close" so he totally maintained that side of the staff, for the most part. Obviously this was a colossal misjudgement. McDaniel can't be faulted IMO because during the interview process this had to have been discussed in depth. A coach that "pushed back" on that approach surely would not have been hired.

- Building on my previous point, it should have been obvious - especially to a qualified NFL GM - that the defensive improvement in 2021 was exclusively the result of playing bad offenses with poor QBs. The one outlier was the Ravens game, and their offense was struggling at that point in the season.

- Grier has consistently drafted and acquired players with extensive injury histories. Why he takes this approach baffles me. Armstead performed just like his history says, he will play great but he will also miss multiple games. Chubb has a similar history and he's already missed a game. The Tua selection is merely an extension of this flawed approach - players with injury histories rarely if ever magically become durable by switching teams, or moving to the NFL from college.

- Grier cannot acquire offensive linemen in the draft. The resources poured in with so little to show for it is the reason this team is so light on depth. Tanking is great - until it is time to make the draft picks and you miss on many of them.

Grier isn't going anywhere. He hired one of the brightest young minds in the league, and helped assemble one of the league's top offenses. The season appears to be ending in an ugly, ugly fashion, but that doesn't mean the future isn't bright. If we see a similar collapse next season, sure - Grier could be on the hot seat. But no way is he going anywhere this offseason.

As for Tua over Herbert, I'd still take Tua all day every day.

JMP wrote:But the reality is, as pissed off and upset as we all are, this team has not been awful, at all.  That's the sad part.  Every loss in this stretch was winnable during the game, but each time things just went south in a hurry.

The Fins even with this 5-game skid have a point differential of just -7 which strongly suggests Jmp is right.

Their TO differential at 8-3 was...even. The TO differential the past 5 games has been -7. That's with the offense having zero turnovers VS the Chargers and Bills.

Also, this team has now tied the franchise record for most games in a season with zero takeaways.

https://stathead.com/tiny/5enFt

white1 wrote:If the pattern holds, Ross will execute another "half measure" and most likely would fire Grier.  It's actually fairly logical for these reasons:

- You can point to the several failed first round draft picks, but at this point none loom any larger than taking Tua over Herbert.  While I will say I think Tua has a higher ceiling, the floor is way lower - because of durability risk which was well known before the draft.

- Grier hired both Flores and McDaniel.  He's getting similar results no matter who the coach is.  His working style may not be suited to an NFL GM.  So collaborative he doesn't have his own vision for what the team should be.  Because of that, the team just drifts based on new coach preference for philosophy, offense scheme, defense scheme, etc.  How can you build a talent base that way?

- Grier thought "the defense is close" so he totally maintained that side of the staff, for the most part.  Obviously this was a colossal misjudgement.  McDaniel can't be faulted IMO because during the interview process this had to have been discussed in depth.  A coach that "pushed back" on that approach surely would not have been hired.  

- Building on my previous point, it should have been obvious - especially to a qualified NFL GM - that the defensive improvement in 2021 was exclusively the result of playing bad offenses with poor QBs.  The one outlier was the Ravens game, and their offense was struggling at that point in the season.  

- Grier has consistently drafted and acquired players with extensive injury histories.  Why he takes this approach baffles me.  Armstead performed just like his history says, he will play great but he will also miss multiple games.  Chubb has a similar history and he's already missed a game.  The Tua selection is merely an extension of this flawed approach - players with injury histories rarely if ever magically become durable by switching teams, or moving to the NFL from college.

- Grier cannot acquire offensive linemen in the draft.  The resources poured in with so little to show for it is the reason this team is so light on depth.  Tanking is great - until it is time to make the draft picks and you miss on many of them.

Us finally agreeing with each other about both Boyer and Greer has been an island of light in a vast roiling ocean of dark, dismal despair. Grier is basically Ryan Grigson, only without the franchise QB acquired by successfully tanking that led to multiple fluke playoff appearances. I have no idea where Grigson even is or what he's doing today BTW.

Let's just say for argument's sake that the Phins beat the Jets. That gives them 9 wins, and would be their third consecutive winning season. To put that in perspective, the Dolphins have not had three consecutive winning seasons since 1997-2003, when they had 7 consecutive winning seasons. So that's almost 20 years since they accomplished that. And if they do make the playoffs, it will be the first time since 2016.

Look, Grier has had some misses, and I'm not looking for a participation trophy. Three winning seasons with nothing of note to show for it isn't cause for celebration. But the fact is, Grier has assembled the best Dolphins teams we have seen in a long, long time - including a top 10 offense this season.

Even if we finish 8-9, now is not the time to dump Grier - it is time to see if he can get this team to the next level, working together with Mike McDaniel to further improve on what they are building. If they fail, sure - blow it up. But now is not that time.

JMP I totally agree that's the right approach. In fact, I said something to that effect a few days ago - do nothing, and hope that McDaniel - Grier will figure out how to solve the problems on this team.

I wrote that above to illustrate what Ross might do, and why. It's not what I would do.

I really don't think there's anything Ross can do. We don't have the draft capital to get Sean Payton, and we don't have the money or draft capital to get a washed-up dinosaur like Rodgers. And another washed-up dinosaur, Brady, is going to retire. Those are the types of big splashes Ross would want, but they are out of reach at this point.

I definitely think the coaching staff will look different - Boyer and Crossman will be gone, and I could see some offensive coaches getting poached by other teams - but I don't think Ross will move on from Grier or McDaniel.

I suspect JMP is correct. Ross is not in a position to do anything extraordinarily stupid as is his raison d'etre.

I could see Grier getting axed, especially if McD demands it, but... probably not. This whole thing about signing and drafting players with injury problems needs to be addressed though.

JMP - You keep saying the losing is the Defense, yet, if the offense was able to KEEP putting up points all thru the game, that would mean the Defense holding the team to FGs and not giving up quick TDs would work, would it not?

I think this is the motive behind the D Boyer is playing. The coaching staff expects to outscore the other team and a Defense that limits the other teams big plays and forces them to methodically move down the field will eat up time before the other team can get ahead of the Phins.

But when the Offense puts up 20 points and then takes the second half of the game off....

IMO, with a complex system like football, isolating one aspect and blaming that and only that is an exercise in classic reductionism.The team loses and the team wins. No Qb plays by himself, and any defense is only as good as its weakest component. The Phins have a dreadful secondary and the pass rush stinks.

And topping it all off, coaching is one of the great determinants of victory.

This offense has been at times powerful and put up big numbers, and then at other times they have looked abysmal. The word you are looking for is: INCONSISTENT!

And as much as I admire your loyalty to Tua, this team would be MUCH BETTER with Herbert at QB right now IMO. Mostly because of the No career threatening injury concerns.

finfanatic wrote:

JMP - You keep saying the losing is the Defense, yet, if the offense was able to KEEP putting up points all thru the game, that would mean the Defense holding the team to FGs and not giving up quick TDs would work, would it not?

I think this is the motive behind the D Boyer is playing. The coaching staff expects to outscore the other team and a Defense that limits the other teams big plays and forces them to methodically move down the field will eat up time before the other team can get ahead of the Phins.

But when the Offense puts up 20 points and then takes the second half of the game off....

IMO, with a complex system like football, isolating one aspect and blaming that and only that is an exercise in classic reductionism.The team loses and the team wins. No Qb plays by himself, and any defense is only as good as its weakest component. The Phins have a dreadful secondary and the pass rush stinks.

The losing streak has been a total team effort, as I've said all along. The offense has screwed up with penalties, turnovers and mental errors. But the fact remains, we have been in all of these games late - and in all of these games, the defense has given up a long, double-digit play scoring drive in the 4th quarter that essentially ices the game for the opponent. The defense cannot force turnovers and cannot consistently get off the field on 3rd downs. Against the Patriots, we had our third-string QB playing in the 4th quarter. Did the defense pick up the slack and get the ball back, or at least keep the Pats out of the endzone? NO! Instead, they had a backup LB covering the Pats best receiver and gave up a TD at the end of a 5+ minute, 10+ play drive!

The Dolphins have a top 10 offense and a bottom 5 defense - that's not me making excuses, that is FACT. The offense is inconsistent - absolutely. But the defense isn't...they are very consistent - at SUCKING.

So yes, total team collapse for sure - but the defense is absolutely a much bigger issue than the offense.

finfanatic wrote:

And as much as I admire your loyalty to Tua, this team would be MUCH BETTER with Herbert at QB right now IMO. Mostly because of the No career threatening injury concerns.

Based on what? Tua has been the better QB this season, on a worse team. In fact, Herbert is having his worst season in the NFL.

And Tua does not have a career-threatening injury.

JMP wrote:

finfanatic wrote:

And as much as I admire your loyalty to Tua, this team would be MUCH BETTER with Herbert at QB right now IMO. Mostly because of the No career threatening injury concerns.

Based on what?  Tua has been the better QB this season, on a worse team.  In fact, Herbert is having his worst season in the NFL.

And Tua does not have a career-threatening injury.

Okay, so now stats do matter to you?

When Herbert had the good stats and his team was losing you said you wanted wins and Tua was winning?

But now...when the Chargers are winning 10-6 and Tua has the stats...

It looks like you just don't like Herbert, JMP?



Stats, team records aside... You would rather have Tua with his injury concerns then a healthy big QB with a huge arm who could potentially be a franchise type QB? I can guarantee, the Chargers front office is wasting no time WONDERING if they need a new QB. I doubt the Dolphins front office is able to say that.

Not all Tua's fault, but at this moment, he's the 4th best QB in the 2020 draft. Burrow already made it to a SB, Hurts is entering his second playoff season (out of two that he's started) and Herbert is now headed for the postseason.

Hopefully Tua has that Brees in 2004 season and makes this a spirited debate next year but right now he's 4th in the pecking order. Availability counts, fair or not.

Well, most people consider passer rating and yards per attempt to be the most important QB stats. Tua has a passer rating of 105.5 and YPA of 8.9 (both #1 in the NFL). Herbert is at 92.4 and 6.7. Tua also has more TDs, in fewer games. Everyone drooled over Herbert's stats for two years, so I'm not going to apologize for pointing out that Tua is significantly better statistically this season - and he still has a better record than Herbert.

Some fans may want a new QB, but I bet the Phins don't - not when Tua has been one of the league's top QBs in one of the league's top offenses, with a rookie HC.

HalCHorn wrote: Availability counts, fair or not.  

Does it only count for Tua? Hurts has missed the past 2 games, and Burrow has missed 7 career games.

JMP wrote:

HalCHorn wrote: Availability counts, fair or not.  

Does it only count for Tua?  Hurts has missed the past 2 games, and Burrow has missed 7 career games.

Absolutely counts for everyone, point taken, but Burrow started every late season game when they were fighting for a spot and all 4 playoff games last year. Herbert's been out there every week for the Chargers' stretch run and outplayed Tua head to head. Hurts did miss the past two games, after said games were pretty much rendered meaningless by the 13-1 start Hurts led them to. The 3 QB's ahead of him have all been available for the games that matter (to date anyway).

If Miami takes care of business against LA or Green Bay Tua could miss these games now and it isn't that big a deal, you're just resting him for the playoffs. But here we are needing these two games and he's not available. It isn't fair but it is what it is.

Am I hearing right... on NFL Sirius channel this AM...some guy from PFF said Tua was ranked dead last in QB rating for the last four games he played?

Also said Tua was the best QB when throwing over the middle early, but when defenses started taking away the middle his ratings dropped?

Is it Tua or the fact McD seems to be sorta like Gase in that his offensive system is all that matters?

I like Tua as a person and was hopeful he could be Bama-good for the Phins, but I think we all have to realize, that ain't gonna happen. He is a smallish, often injured player with a concussion history. Has anyone isolated the play where he got concussed versus GB yet?

IMO, none of this bodes well for the Phins and Tua.

I think Hal may be correct that they stick with Tua for next season (UNLESS Grier does something egregious and trades for Jimmy G!!! An often-injured QB and we all know how Grier loves him some free agents with injury concerns!!!) and then decide to clean house after another inconsistent injury-plagued season from him.

Man, this was a really brutal season. Just when it looked like the Phins were gonna overcome their plethora of warts and faults and rise up to NFL Contender, reality set in and the team now looks like the 4th best team in the AFC East.

Unless they can beat the Jets.

I just don't see it though.

finfanatic wrote:some guy from PFF said Tua was ranked dead last in QB rating for the last four games he played?

As usual, PFF is wrong.

I averaged the passer rating for 4 QBs that I thought might have similar numbers from weeks 13-16 (Tua's last 4 games). Here's what I came up with:
Justin Herbert - 86.1 (2 TDs, 3 INTs)
Tua - 82.5 (6 TDs, 5 INTs)
Mac Jones - 79.5 (3 TDs, 1 INT)
Deshaun Watson - 67.8 (2 TDs, 3 INTs)

I'm sure there are others that are even lower, but I just looked at those 4. Note that I also included TD and INT numbers for comparison.

PFF may be using their own strange system that doesn't match anything else, but I used the official stats from Pro Football Reference.

You want Tua to be "Bama-good", and then when he is it's not good enough. He still leads the league in passer rating and still has more TDs than Justin "God" Herbert, but I guess that doesn't count. As for being "smallish", what does that have to do with anything? Was he too small when he was lighting up the league and playing at a historically high level while the Phins were 8-3? Did being 6'1" tall hurt him while he was throwing for SIX TDs against the Ravens? Is there some relation between height and head injuries that no one knows about?

I get it...Tua struggled down the stretch. He was also off-the-charts great, playing at an MVP-caliber level, for the majority of the season. Yet here we have Dolfans all over the world calling for Tua's head while wishing they had Justin Herbert...who, by the way, also struggled down the stretch and hasn't been as good as Tua at any point this season.

This was a brutal season??? Really??? It's been a brutal 5 weeks for sure, but the first 11 weeks of the season were the best Dolphins football I've seen in ages. Watching my team field a top NFL offense is something I never even dared to dream of - and now we have it, thanks to a rookie head coach that everyone wants to fire and a QB that everyone hates with unbridled passion. Yeah, it sucks that things went south - it rally does. But that doesn't negate what happened before and it doesn't mean that the future is full of doom and gloom and everyone should get fired.