Week 4 Game Thoughts: Dolphins at Bills

I'm not sure if the game is over yet, but no reason to wait:

The new, dominating Miami Dolphins went to Buffalo today to lock down not just the AFC East, but the entire AFC. Staring at the prospect of a 4-0 record, with all 4 wins in the conference and a commanding lead across the board in the standings, everything was going the Dolphins’ way heading in to this game.

And then the Dolphins forgot to show up. The Dolphins needed to make a statement today, and they did – they very loudly and clearly said that they are not in the same league as the Bills.

The Bills kicked ass up and down the field, in every phase of the game, making the Dolphins look like a fraudulent joke. “Genius” Mike McDaniel got outcoached in every way possible, and “legendary” defensive coordinator Vic Fangio fielded a defense that offered zero resistance and actually played like it wasn’t even on the field. The Bills did whatever they wanted, whenever they wanted, and re-established their position as the only legitimate team in the East.

The offense started strong with two consecutive TD drives, and then promptly disappeared – going three and out on every other first half possession, including a lost fumble by Raheem Mostert. The rest of the afternoon was filled with horrible playcalling, terrible pass protection, injuries, turnovers, sacks and just general poor play. The defense was a complete dumpster fire from start to finish, with what seemed like hundreds of missed tackles and blown coverages. The defensive performance was lowlighted by Kader Kohou getting beat again and again and again and again (and again) by Stefon Diggs.

Mike McDaniel was horrific today, falling back to his old ways of foolishly abandoning the run game, going for 2 in a situation where it made no sense, calling a stupid challenge late in the third on a play that was never going to be overturned, and then calling a pass play on 4th and short after the failed challenge – resulting in a Tua sack. Just asinine coaching today from a guy that I thought had learned from last year’s mistakes. Guess not.

I can’t even say anything else – too disgusted. I fell for the ol’ bait and switch from this team once again. Maybe we still make the playoffs if we’re lucky, but at this point all the hopes and dreams I had for this season have been thoroughly and completely SMASHED. Another wasted season.

Sometimes you can draw some positives from a loss. Not today. This was a brutal defeat, and proved that the Dolphins are just not ready to hang with the truly good teams in the conference.


Hero of the Game: No one. Andrew Van Ginkel sucked a little less than everyone else on defense, but the D was godawful so it means nothing. De’Von Achane had a big game on offense, but in the end it was like pissing in the wind. So yeah, no one is deserving.

Goat of the Game: Kader Kohou is very deserving, for playing one of the worst games I’ve ever seen a corner play. But there is no answer here other than Vic Fangio. It sure looks like the game has passed this old man by. He designed a gameplan that made it seem like he had never watched the Bills play, and he made no adjustments. Bonus stupidity points for benching a legit boundary corner (Eli Apple) and replacing him with a slot corner (Kohou) – with the expected results. 4 games in, and Fangio has proven to be a FRAUD. What a colossal waste of money.

I don't even want to see the reaction by the Fins fan base after this. Everybody I saw all week was just so sure they'd win.

Does this team even make the playoffs now? Will they actually go down in history as that one team that scored 70 in a game and still had a losing record? Sure does seem like it right now!

I was expecting a loss today. I wasn't expecting us to lay a big egg like this.

That said, back home for two games, two winnable home games, correct things and let's get this back on track.

I know it's hard to say anything positive after today, but if you'd told me a month ago that we would be 3-1 after the first 4 with only one of those games at home, I'd have gladly taken that. Still will.

HalCHorn wrote:I was expecting a loss today.  I wasn't expecting us to lay a big egg like this.

That said, back home for two games, two winnable home games, correct things and let's get this back on track.

I know it's hard to say anything positive after today, but if you'd told me a month ago that we would be 3-1 after the first 4 with only one of those games at home, I'd have gladly taken that.  Still will.

Except there's no guarantee they'll win either game. Just look at how the Eagles needed OT to scrape by a Commanders team the Bills thrashed. Or the Cards whipping the Cowboys.

A loss to the Panthers OR Giants completely ruins all momentum and will result in future home crowds being drastically reduced and/or openly turning on this team during the games.

HalCHorn wrote:I was expecting a loss today.  I wasn't expecting us to lay a big egg like this.

That said, back home for two games, two winnable home games, correct things and let's get this back on track.

I know it's hard to say anything positive after today, but if you'd told me a month ago that we would be 3-1 after the first 4 with only one of those games at home, I'd have gladly taken that.  Still will.

Yeah, I think we'll end up having a very good season and beat the teams we're supposed to beat. Not many teams can or will stop this offense. The trouble is, this game tells me we just aren't ready to take the next step. We could and should be 5-1 heading into the Eagles game, so the season is far from over. But today seriously lowered my expectations.

I see that at least Cedric Wilson decided to show he still exists...by catching a 16-yard pass on 4th and 18

This was a flashback to the bad old Olivadotti days for sure! More on that in a bit...

DolFan 316 wrote:I see that at least Cedric Wilson decided to show he still exists...by catching a 16-yard pass on 4th and 18

Hey, Wilson also had a punt return for like 2 yards - don't shortchange him! LOL But Tua was under heavy pressure on that play and had to get the ball out quick...not Wilson's fault. Wynn and Eich were getting abused today.

It can always be worse...just look at Joe Burrow and the Bengals!

After 4 weeks, the AFC sure doesn't look at strong as expected, does it? And that's the worst part of today's loss...we could have been in the driver's seat in the conference with a win.

JMP wrote:It can always be worse...just look at Joe Burrow and the Bengals!  

After 4 weeks, the AFC sure doesn't look at strong as expected, does it?  And that's the worst part of today's loss...we could have been in the driver's seat in the conference with a  win.

But don't you see? That's why the Bills are winning it all--everything's falling their way already, what with their main rivals falling apart

Even the Jets loss has somehow worked out in their favor, since it took away all the pressure of going unbeaten ASAP. I honestly don't see anyone beating them except maybe the Eagles, who just struggled mightily with a team the Bills thrashed!

Our only hope is that the Purdys can take them out in the Super Bowl but if they go into that game unbeaten then it's the ultimate doomsday scenario for us DolFans!

I think the worst part might've been seeing Rousseau get one sack away from tying Phillips for 2nd in the '21 draft class behind Parsons (who has an insurmountable lead already). I'm used to Josh Allen owning this team but that's what stings to me the most.

Last week's loss to the Colts notwithstanding I expect the Ravens to be in the middle of it all year long also.

Oh BTW Josh Allen just put up the best single game passer rating of his career--a perfect 158.3. As in, you cannot do any better than that by NFL standards. Oy...

HalCHorn wrote:Last week's loss to the Colts notwithstanding I expect the Ravens to be in the middle of it all year long also.  

Yep. Injuries are the only thing that will slow down the Ravens - they seem to get 1-2 big injuries every week!

HalCHorn wrote:Last week's loss to the Colts notwithstanding I expect the Ravens to be in the middle of it all year long also.  

I've already written off the Ravens since the Bills own them in the playoffs and Lamar Jackson is a postseason fraud regardless. Also, Harbaugh has one playoff win in the last EIGHT YEARS. And that was only because he faced the Titans after they humiliated him the previous postseason and the Ravens *had* to win that one.

If they had lost but put up a fight and the game had come down to the last minute I could've at least been convinced that they belonged in the conversation of top teams for now. But the Fins didn't even compete the last 3 quarters.

THEY DIDN'T EVEN COMPETE!!! THEY JUST LAID DOWN LIKE THE BRONCOS DID LAST WEEK!!!

They got their ass kicked, no way around it.

I changed my mind. Here's the worst part.

Last season McDaniel convinced me that, if nothing else, we'd finally gotten a coach whose team wouldn't let the Bills pimp-slap them all over the field every game and would actually stand toe to toe with them win or lose. The playoff game REALLY sold me on this.

But now I see that the McDaniel Fins are really no different than the Flores, Gase and Philbin Fins of the last decade who constantly got dominated, devastated, decimated, humiliated and emasculated by Barfalo. And it's *extremely* demoralizing to me.

Most Coaches pick the first 15 Plays before the game starts we scored 14 during that time, then coach had to start picking plays during the Flow and it went downhill from there. Learned after the game that Howard wanted to shadow Diggs the whole game.

After sleeping on it, I'm ready to move on. It was a horrifically bad game, but we're 3-1 with 13 games left, most at home. Time to get up off the mat and keep fighting.

Okay I'm over the game, now. Here are a few of my thoughts in no particular order:

- It's still a pretty simple game when it comes down to it. All the motion, all the speed we've collected on offense, Tua in total command of the offense, and a good, solid running game (Achane with TWO MORE TDs!). It means nothing if you can't win on the line of scrimmage. The Bills won on both sides of the ball. They had the better pass rush. The better run stops. Allen stayed clean, at time he had FOREVER to find a receiver and throw the ball. It's won in the trenches, gentlemen. And we lost there. Big time.

- On the offensive line, I know we are not that far away. There are two corrections I would make looking at the line long-term. Clearly, Eich has no shot at ever being a starter in this league. His time has come and gone. Connor Williams is WORLDS better at Center, and I'm largely basing that on his blocking stats. The bad snaps can and will get corrected. Armstead's time has also come. Counting on him to start and finish a game at this point is simply disruptive. Make Lamm the full time starter, he's shown plenty of goodness. I like Hunt/Jackson on the right side and I'd lock them both up to extensions. If we're looking to upgrade, best and biggest bang for the buck is to fine a better left guard. Give me Lamm - NEW LG - Williams - Hunt - Jackson - that's a line I could like or even love to see on the field regularly.

- On defense. Wow. If Grier has a single valid thought about NFL football in his head, and I know he does because let's face it - he assembled a pretty damn good offense - he has to know this roster on defense has NO CHANCE to contain Josh Allen. He has owned us from the moment the "lights turned on" and he learned how to play in this league. Yes, we got to him last season, which was just a bad season for the Bills who everyone knows fell well short of their expectations. Where was Wilkins? Not showing up in the stat line when the Bills hang 40+ on us is not a great way to make a case for his big contract. I know Phillips was out, but Chubb was mighty quiet as well. I have this nagging feeling the reason X wasn't on Diggs.... is because he can't cover him 1-1 anymore. He's lost a step, and is usually dinged up throughout the season. Holland clearly doesn't know and trust this scheme yet, because it typically "mints" playmaking safeties and he has the skills to do it but it's not there yet.

- Fangio is NOT the problem. Allow me to continue. I was watching the Jets last night and their defense plays inspired. You know what they've got? A bunch of players that swarm to the ball, and a couple really good, dynamic linebackers who are all over the field in run stops, dropping into zones, etc. Saleh coached under Fangio, so I know he's running a variant of his system, and it's effective. If Wilson limits just 1 or 2 mistakes, they beat the Chiefs last night and they made Mahomes look down right mortal.

- Where am I going with all this? I think we're looking at a major upheaval on the defensive side of the ball. Our players just aren't young enough, talented enough, fast enough or big enough. I have a lot of random thoughts on how the Fins proceed, but on the extreme side of the scale we probably keep a few players to build around and make some wholesale changes. I *think* the keepers are Van Ginkle, Phillips, Chubb, Sieler, Holland, Kohou, Brandon Jones, Cam Smith, Elliott. I've just named only nine players, and you can all see who I have left out, and that's not even a single starting defense. We can't break the bank for Wilkins when it looks like we're about to field one of the bottom tier defenses in the league. No, this roster looks old and slow on that side of the ball, and they're getting pushed around way too often. I'm going cheap on the DL, and emphasizing much better linebacker play. That LB that was traded from CHI to BAL would look really good down here. The secondary needs serious help also, which can be a combination of FA signings and draft picks. However, my overarching number one priority is PASS RUSH. I want to pressure the QB without sending 5 so I can play all the exotic coverages to confuse and give me one more second to get to the QB.

Anyways, those are my thoughts today. I do expect our defense to improve as the season goes. I'd probably put Armstead on IR, we just cannot count on him anymore which just sucks - but chalk it up to Grier signing yet another injury-prone guy. When Williams comes in the o-line takes a step forward. And I expect McDaniel to continue running the ball and leaning on it more. I think we already have way more rushing TDs this year than last season, and it could have worked yesterday had we even slowed the Bills down on defense. Which we didn't, of course.

Great post, white. I agree that overhauling the defense is the first order of business for the offseason. Clearly Fangio has no interest in adapting his system to individual player skillsets, so we have to add players that fit his vision and dump the ones that don't. That likely means a new-look DL and LB corps, at the very least.

As for Howard not being able to cover Diggs 1-on-1, I'm not so sure about that. But even if true, it was downright ludicrous to have Kohou continue to cover him the entire game. It obviously wasn't working, so something different needed to be done - and clearly wasn't.

About the OL: there is a good chance that we'll have at least 3 or 4 new starters next season, simply because every current lineman is a free agent and there's no way we'll be able to keep all of them. I would not be surprised to see the team keep Williams and Hunt, and let the rest walk. Armstead will be a tough cut with his cap hit, but I'm guessing he retires and the Phins will get some of his signing bonus back, and if I am correct I think they can spread any dead cap out over two years.

As far the observations from this game…  

The complete transition to Fangio’s scheme isn't going to happen over night.  It looks like a lot of the players are still struggling to figure it out.  And maybe the talent drafted for the previous scheme isn’t quite the fit we’d hoped for.  We can always hope it’ll improve with more reps.

The injuries certainly didn’t help.  Phillips is (or is supposed to be) the best pass rusher and he wasn’t there to help put pressure on Allen.  AVG played admirably, but he’s not Phillips.  Jones at safety looked very rusty in his first significant snaps with Elliot out.  And issues at corner are obvious with no Ramsey.

And speaking of corners.  What does it say about X Howard that coaches decided shadowing the Bills’ best WR with Kadou was a better option?  Cause its not like Howard was light out on the opposite side either.  I fear maybe it wasn’t scheme that was holding Howard back last year, but perhaps age is finally catching up with him.  And its hard to get mad at Kadou.  He shouldn’t even be in the position in the first place.  Iggy – gone ineffective.  Cam Smith – didn’t even log defensive snaps and that is without Apple even active.  It says a lot that an UDFA surprise is starting over high drafts picks and pulling the top assignment over the supposed vet (highly paid) legend.

The middle of the offensive line was clearly affected by Williams being out.  Bad high snaps and all, he’s a much, much better blocker than Eich.  The center position looked so weak that the stink starting rubbing off on the rest of the line – especially Wynn right next to Eich.  If Williams returns, hopefully the middle of the line will return to at least solid.

Yes, Armstead is very good – when he’s healthy which just isn’t that often.  Perhaps its time to move on (the decision might already be made depending on this latest knee injury).  It was tough for Lamm to come in from off the bench, but if the first few weeks were any indication, he’ll hopefully be more than serviceable with a full week of starting preparation.

I do find it concerning that with both Hill and Waddle on the field, neither one seemed to be able to get as consistently open as they had in prior weeks.  Was it them or were they open, but Tua just couldn’t get it to them?  Was Tua too pressured?  Was it bad playcalls?  Do the Bills have the defensive keys (even without their starting safety and best CB going down) to stop these speedy wideouts?  Did Tua get rattled?

And even with Phillps out and AVG performing well, where was Chubb?  He is supposed to be every bit the pass rusher and he’s the one with experience in Fangio’s scheme.

And perhaps for a group that hasn’t tasted collective success, there were some players that thought they had wrapped up and believe their own press hype.

“It’s very good, because I would say it’s also very humbling for a lot of people to be able to have the highest high and then you lose in a manner like this, it’s very humbling,” Tagovailoa said. “For some, it’s much needed.”

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/nfl/miami-dolphins/article279736664.html

I mean wow, that sounds like Tua calling some guys out for thinking they might have been better than they are with the “for some, it’s much needed” remark.

It was bad, bad…terrible loss.  No getting around that.  But just as I was not convinced the Phins were some untouchable offensive juggernaut after the first three games (yes they were good, really good, but that couldn’t last at that pace for all 17 games), I am not now convinced they are some awful team.  The Bills are good, certainly better than Miami, who is unfortunately still what they were last year – a wild card team.  Perhaps they will prove to be a slightly better wild card team, but the Dolphins are not among the AFC, much less NFL elite.  The good news is that there are fewer elite teams this year:  SF, Philly, Buffalo and KC for the most part, so Miami does have time (13 games to be exact) to catch up and make some ground on the top teams.

The good news (there really isn’t any good news) is that exposure is happening early enough in the season that with some guys returning from injuries and more experience in the schemes, the Dolphins can turn this around and make this a one game aberration.  Will they?  We’ll just have to wait and see.

I will say that it was Me who cost us the Game, during the last 4 Bills games they are 0-3 when I watch at Home and 1-0 when I’m at Work, Was supposed to Work Yesterday but My Wife came down with Covid so I-had to Stay Home. Week 18 My Fat Ass will be Working even if I have to change my schedule. On a Serious Note at Least Milano didn’t Hurt Tua this Time.

First of all, White1 is officially the Poster Of The Week unless/until someone dethrones him. SO much goodness to unpack there.

The more I think about it, the more Howard's career is reminding me of Darrelle Revis's. IMO Revis got old *really* quickly for a non-RB Hall Of Famer. His age 30 season (Howard is 30 now) was his last as a Pro Bowler and he lasted just two seasons after that, falling off a cliff. The question is, even if the Fins can afford to part ways with Howard in the offseason, that would likely just create a gaping hole in the secondary they just don't need right now.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/R/ReviDa99.htm

Secondly, if the same player and team has been gashing, gouging and goring Fins D for years with multiple coaches/DCs then yeah, the problem just might be the players instead of Fangio.

Third, I was told that the Cam Smith pick was NECESSARY even WITH the Ramsey signing and yet even with Ramsey hurt he still can't get on the field??? Did Grier just draft another Iggy??? Sure does look like it already to me! Once again our esteemed GM literally would've been better off drafting *anybody* else at *any* other position. Even a mediocre rookie is better than one who literally NEVER PLAYS!

Fourth, I watched a video last night in which the guy STRONGLY insisted that this offense is utterly helpless against man coverage. They can shred a zone all day long, but apparently when it's press/man that's the scheme's kryptonite. Just wanted to know everybody's thoughts on that because if it's true that's DEEPLY disturbing.

FYI this team had 12 rushing TDs last season and 10 already though 4 games so I can see why white1 thinks the way he does even though they haven't quite reached "way more" just yet They're certainly on pace to do just that.

Buffalo is the better team. At every position except maybe WR I am thinking.

Zone D with no pass rush versus a great QB is going to be a recipe for disaster. And it was.

McD does not gameplan for his primary and secondary reads by Tua to be taken away, like Buffalo did Waddle and Hill. I can't help thinking that a gameplan that used Waddle and Hill as DECOYS to allow the TEs, RBS, and other WRs to get open would have caught the Bills by the short and curlies. Maybe? I am sure McDermot was planning to counter that as well. (sigh)

Anyway... All that talk about the "revolutionary" offense was a set-up. McDermot was probably snickering like Dr. Evil hoping McD would trot out the same offensive gameplan that posted seventy on the Broncos. And he did. And McDermot chuckled.

No doubt the Bills were riled up by hearing everyone ask them how they were going to hope to stay on the field with the Dolphins 70 point offense. In the end, they showed everyone the Dolphins for what they are. As Josh Allen said in an interview after the game "Yeah those guys are good. They will be a problem for some teams." Meaning, some other teams, not us. We treat the Phins like skinny malnourished nits on the playground; we punch them in the face, take their lunch money, and then just to show them who is who, give them an atomic wedgie and make them limp away sobbing.

It's too early to talk about the offseason, but as I said last week, hold off on the Super Bowl, let's book tickets for Las Vegas talk. This team has some pieces, some parts, but the offense is a finesse offense that can be stymied by bigger, badder defenses, and really needs a different philosophy for 3rd and 4th downs plays.... And the defense is... not good. There is no legitimate threat on the Dline that an offense has to plan for stopping to avoid having their QB poleaxed like with the Jets or the Bills. The Zone coverage without a pass rush just is not working, especially against good QBs. I don't know if getting Ramsey back will make that much of a difference either.

No easy answers for sure, but this team could still make the playoffs. Winning a playoff game though...unless it is a home playoff game and the offense gets in a groove like they did versus Denver.... I just don't see it happening.