Way too early Pats at Dolphins predictions

THIS IS NOT AN INFOMERCIAL. IF YOU HAVE MORE THAN ENOUGH MONEY, THEN SKIP TO DOWN BELOW…

Clearly the NFL wants us to gamble. How else to explain the inability of being able to watch an NFL game, any game, without being bombarded with the likes of Kevin Hart, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Jamie Foxx extoling the virtues of various online gambling mediums? No one is immune (or above being bought) – remember those Manning brothers Caesars commercials. Hell, significant portions of the NFL’s own Sunday pregame show is dedicated to point spreads and bets. The NFL makes a lot of money from legal gambling via not only more fan interest, but the license fees (lots of $$$) to use the NFL shield to give gambling outfits an heir of legitimacy (psst, that’s why the NFL keeps increasing games in Europe where sports betting is an accepted part of culture). I don’t gamble (no one should unless they have money they need to get rid of), but I, for circumstances I will (can) not explain here, do intimately understand how gambling works.

First, you can not win. Sure, you might hit it big on a couple games here and there, just enough to keep you coming back, but over the long haul, you will lose – always. The closest thing I have ever seen to a guaranteed, foolproof “system” (and remember, nothing is guaranteed) is ALWAYS betting on ALL (do not pick and choose) home underdogs to cover the spread. Over about a 5-year period, you might (and I mean MIGHT) see about a 5% to 7% return on your initial outlay (after fees, but not accounting for taxes). Believe me, you’d be much better off putting your money in a CD with a locked interest rate. But hey, gambling is sure more entertaining. The thrills. The ups and downs. The covers. The last-minute field goals. These are exactly the endorphin releasing moments (win or lose) that Vegas is counting on you feeling to sell their product – you giving them your hard earned cash.

Vegas uses point spreads and money lines to mitigate risk and lean the table in their favor. They have entire workforces dedicated to the analytics of establishing the initial points spreads. They have teams of people (and computer algorithms) who analyze all sorts of unimageable facets of the game that could (or not) affect the outcome (things as seemingly inconsequential as the specific length of the grass on the field between the hashes versus outside the number – yes as winter approaches is varies – to what time the visiting team’s plane lands and the distance to the hotel). Remember, sports teams did not invent analytics. Vegas did – and sports teams took notice hoping to find competitive advantages. Once an initial point spread is established, Vegas then moves the line up and down in response to the volume of money being bet on one side or the other. Vegas knows its still sports and anything can happen (well in uncorrupted sports). They don’t want to be too far invested on one side or the other. In the vast majority of cases, they want a pretty even amount of money being bet on both teams so they can sit in the middle and collect their fee (vigorish – yes, it’s a word, look it up). So if one team is getting too much money being laid on their side, Vegas will move the line to make the other team more appealing to even out the money. That way, they payout $1M to one side after they collect a $1M from the other side for a net zero but happily walk away with a 5% fee from everybody ($100K profit from total bets). Yes, occasionally Vegas will identify a contest they see as no-lose proposition and may allow the money to skew a little too far one way or the other. But even they lose sometimes, but it is guaranteed that over the course of the long haul, they will win for more than they lose. And as long as they’re taking their cut (fee) off the top on 100 games, they can take a chance on a few – as long as Vegas hits at least 51% on those skewed games plus throw in their cut, they make money…lots and lots of money. It’s about the volume for them. You’re worried about your few thousand on a couple football games this weekend – or maybe even a season worth of games. Their eye is on every known imaginable way to bet on every single sports competition over the last 20 years and the next 20 to come and maximizing their take over the long haul. Believe me, they don’t build the opulence of a town like Vegas by giving away money. They’re happy you won. They want you to win (this week – or weeks). That way you keep coming back.

So what does all that have to do with the Miami Dolphins hosting the Patriots this weekend? The narrative coming into the weekend (yes Vegas pays money to have narratives pushed – FOX, CBS, NBC, ESPN, etc., etc. love that revenue from those commercials) is a Dolphins team with a lot of injuries on the down swing and who can’t seem to beat the good teams. New England, well yes, they have struggled, but they just did what Miami can’t in beating the supposed pre-season anointed king of the Buffalo Bills (yea, we know Miami has a better record, but nobody really believes they are better than Buffalo, right?). And well, Bill Belichick is a genius – never mind everything we said last week about the game passing him by. So given all that, this is gonna be a close one, right? New England is clearly gonna fight ‘em tough just like they did Buffalo last week and might even beat ‘em. Miami, I mean really, didn’t you see that flop in Philly? Ok, ok, Miami is the home team – so we’ll set the opening line at 4, maybe 5, even that’s a suckers bet. WRONG!!! Vegas opened up with Miami as 10.5 point favorites.

You can bet your ass your drunk ass cousin Vinny went running to window to lay what was left of his Sam Adams allowance to scoop up those points. Yes, Vegas keeps track of things (meaning preys upon) like who drinks how much and what home team fans subsequently make stupid homer bets – anyone who knows a Boston Red Sox fan can confirm that. Things got so far out of hand that Vegas even had to drop the line a point (its currently 9.5) just to get a little money on Miami and keep things within their long-range risk mitigation models (you never know – it is a sports game where anything could happen – unless of course they’re paying the refs). All this tells me one thing: Vegas really believes Miami will win and win big.

An opening line of 10.5, hmmm.

…SKIP TO HERE IF YOU’RE RICH

Miami Dolphins 31
New England Patriots 20

DONE.

That’s right, by 11.

Remember, the proceeding was for entertainment purposes only (yea, right). If you are anyone has a gambling problem, please contact the gambling help hotline – oh never mind, Vegas pays for those too as a means of making legal gambling legislation more palatable to the public. If you have a gambling problem (and would prefer to not just give your money away) then just stop.

And if I’m not here on Monday, then re-read this post. It either means Vegas sent Jimmy “Two-toes” and his meat grinder to have a conversation with me or I lied about not gambling and I’m sipping umbrella drinks on a previously undisclosed beach location.

and speaking of bad analytic narratives:

https://sports.yahoo.com/kendrick-bourne-over-tyreek-hill-193344966.html

sure, Kendrick is better than Tyreek.

don't say i didn't warn ya.

Damn, merc - that was a legendary, hall of fame-worthy post. A seriously great read.

About the game...I admit, I'm not feeling very confident.

On defense, our secondary sucks and the big cushion our corners have to play as a result makes bad QBs look good. On offense, 2 of the 5 OL positions are huge, gaping holes, and McD and Tua continue to disregard anyone not named Tyreek or Jaylen.

To make matters worse, we are playing the Patriots. What that means: when we have the ball, Tyreek will almost certainly be a non-factor and the Patriots D will attack the piss-poor left and center of our OL. When they have the ball, King Dink and Dunk, Mac Jones, will hit quick, short passes all day long as our secondary lines up in the next town over.

Should we win this game? Absolutely. Will we win this game? Honestly, I don't know. I don't see us scoring a lot, and I'm just praying Tua comes out of this game healthy.

I will very non-confidently take the Dolphins, winning on a Jason Sanders FG as time expires, by a score of 20-17. But I will not at all be surprised by a loss.

HOLY GUACAMOLE!!!

Merc officially wins the forum today, in a Fins over Broncos-style landslide. As much as I love it, he really needs to save some of those posts for other days, much like the Fins needed to save a few TDs for games against contenders.

Also as you probably figured out I have NO confidence in this team to win, Vegas or no Vegas. I'll even go as far as to predict a shutout loss. Yup, a shutout.

BTW my one gambling "what if" came when I was THIS close to laying money down on Devin Hester returning the opening kickoff of the Bears-Colts Super Bowl for a score. Still kicking myself even today for not doing this. But I'm not a gambler by nature. Just too scared of losing money. And every week I see games that make me VERY thankful for that. For example, I would've bet that the Eagles, who were 12-0 all-time VS the Jets going in, would've won that game for sure.

mercury22nathan wrote:and speaking of bad analytic narratives:

https://sports.yahoo.com/kendrick-bourne-over-tyreek-hill-193344966.html

sure, Kendrick is better than Tyreek.

don't say i didn't warn ya.

Wow, who woulda thunk it - ESPN ranking a Patriots player above a Dolphins player!

Too asinine to even comment on.

We could be without Tyreek, Mostert and Holland in this one. If so, put me down for a Patriots win.

yes, Tyreek's injury obviously could change things. i'll be curious to see what this does to current -9.5 line.

Great post, merc.

"Jimmy Two-Toes"!! Classic.

This is a Phins home game. After that sloppy ugly disaster of a game in Philly, I expect the Phins to come out mad and play hard.

The Fangio defense is made to stop teams like the Pats. As long as the Pats cannot run the ball, the D will be okay IMO.

I say Dolphins 24 Pats 16.

I don't think we lose this one. Get to 20 points and it is a win IMO.

I'll say 23-13 Fins. Trouble finishing drives, but we will move the ball.

Reek, Mostert and Ingold all back at practice today. Holland practiced with a red jersey, so I assume he is now in the later stages of the concussion protocol - probably means he'll play.

[Breathes a sigh of relief] OK, back to the Phins winning a close one!

mercury22nathan wrote:All this tells me one thing:  Vegas really believes Miami will win and win big.

An opening line of 10.5, hmmm.

i guess Vegas knew something after all. a lot of money flowing from Boston to Las Vegas yesterday afternoon.