What do all these numbers mean?

not sure where to put these numbers, so i'll just leave them here...

— The Dolphins, who haven’t won a playoff game since the 2000 season, have the worst record (1-6) among playoff teams against fellow playoff teams (Tampa Bay and the Rams are next at 2-6);

— The Dolphins average the fewest points per game against playoff teams, slightly behind Pittsburgh (16.1 points per game vs. 16.3 ppg). That’s a real knock against the Dolphins’ high-scoring offense;

— The Dolphins allow the most points per game (32) followed by Dallas (28);

— The Dolphins have the worst point differential (-110) followed by Cleveland (-56);

— The Dolphins have the widest average losing margin (16 ppg) followed by Cleveland (7 ppg);

https://sports.yahoo.com/chris-perkins-numbers-dolphins-must-231200122.html

and hope it inspires some discussion.

some other numbers for thought...

So he’s [Allen] 0-3 in the playoffs against Mahomes and critics loaded up against Allen with that stat. Consider this: Allen has completed 75 percent of his passes in those three games with seven touchdowns (and two more running), one interception and a 98.9 passer rating. Mahomes has eight TDs against no interceptions and a 125.2 rating.

https://sports.yahoo.com/dave-hyde-mahomes-allen-jackson-103000195.html

but...

The Dolphins, down six starters, held Kansas City to 6.4 yards a play. Buffalo, down a few starters, allowed 9.3 yards a play.

i'm not gonna post Tua's numbers against the Chiefs in the playoffs cause the sample size is too small and wouldn't be fair.  but all these numbers have got to mean something, right?

It means we are a good team but not a playoff caliber team.

We need to evolve further on both sides of the ball, and Tua needs to continue to improve especially on broken plays or extending plays by escaping and continuing to look down field.

While the Dolphins were 1-5 against playoff teams in the regular season, the Chiefs were 1-4 - so I'm not sure that number by itself means anything.

But the other numbers? It tells me that the Dolphins, as a TEAM, just couldn't beat good teams - which we already knew.

What to do about it? On offense, strengthen the OL and adjust the scheme/playcalling, and on defense, get a more consistent pass rush and force more turnovers. Winning against good teams is about making big plays - just look at the Chiefs win over the Bills. We need to position both sides of the ball to make big plays in key situations against good teams - and for me, that starts in the trenches - don't get pushed around on the line, and your team (on both sides of the ball) can make more plays.

I just saw one of those NFL Trivia Quiz things on Cowherd...They asked who had the most TDs in the last four seasons? You could pick between four QBs, Mahommes, Jackson, Allen and another one?

Turns out it was Allen with 199 TDs in the last four seasons and that is a record.  

And even with all those terrific numbers, the Bills ain't won nothing.

I say that to point out that the numbers by themselves may not be a 100% correct indicator.

In any event, my contention has always been that the Phins weak Oline is the primary cause of all the Phins problems and that only by really strengthening the Oline can the Phins become a more physical team and be able to compete with good teams.

We will see if Grier and Co feel the same way about it this off season I guess.

Yep, I am fully on board the OL bandwagon.

Thinking about options:
--I'd love to keep Hunt, but I'm letting Williams walk due to the injury. So assuming we keep Hunt, we need starters at LG and C.
--If Armstead returns, he's the starting LT - but we need a young player to develop behind him, and one that can play right away when Armstead is out. Or maybe we already have that LT in Kion Smith??
--Also curious to see what kind of free agent deal Lamm gets - he may be too pricey for the Phins to keep with Smith and Ryan Hayes on cheap deals.
--In any case, I'd really look to strengthen the interior OL as a priority.

Interior OL needs to get Tougher and some Nasty in them. Hunt has it but Center & LG not at All.

JMP wrote:Yep, I am fully on board the OL bandwagon.

Thinking about options:
--I'd love to keep Hunt, but I'm letting Williams walk due to the injury.  So assuming we keep Hunt, we need starters at LG and C.  
--If Armstead returns, he's the starting LT - but we need a young player to develop behind him, and one that can play right away when Armstead is out.  Or maybe we already have that LT in Kion Smith??  
--Also curious to see what kind of free agent deal Lamm gets - he may be too pricey for the Phins to keep with Smith and Ryan Hayes on cheap deals.  
--In any case, I'd really look to strengthen the interior OL as a priority.

i agree with you JMP, however i have a few question i keep coming back to...

Hunt. i really like Hunt (and always have), but what is it going to take to keep him? the 2023 top 3 paid OG:

Chris Lindstrom, Atlanta Falcons: $20.5 million (5 years, $102.5 million)
Quenton Nelson, Indianapolis Colts: $20 million (4 years, $80 million)
Elgton Jenkins, Green Bay Packers: $17 million (4 years, $68 million)

and a case can be made that Hunt is just as good or better than all of them. but even if he was willing to take a deal that put him in this pack ($20Mish per year), can the Dolphins afford that - and more importantly, is that the best use of salary cap resources?

as far as strengthening (finding new) the other interior positions LG and C, i would think they'd have to use some combination of the draft and FA. building through the draft would be ideal, but this year Miami has a 1st and 2nd rounder and then (currently) don't pick again until the 5th followed by two 6ths and 7th. i'm not convinced this regime would use a 1st or 2nd on an interior Olinemen and maybe waiting until the 5th might be a bit late in hoping to find someone who can step in right away (not impossible, but maybe not as likely). i suppose a trade back could net a 3rd rounder (a move to the bottom of the 1st would equate to a lower end 3rd rounder).

and i agree that finding Armstead's replacement is critical. but again, does Miami have the draft ammo to do it this year? and even is they don't find his replacement, they do need to again add a capable backup given his continues injury history. i think the Lamm/Smith solution might be nice bandaid, but i think the position will need to be addressed with a significant draft pick eventually. and honestly, i thought Armstead played well when he was healthy, but i'm not sure he played great - but that might be the best Miami can hope for at this stage in his career.

mercury22nathan wrote:

JMP wrote:Yep, I am fully on board the OL bandwagon.

Thinking about options:
--I'd love to keep Hunt, but I'm letting Williams walk due to the injury.  So assuming we keep Hunt, we need starters at LG and C.  
--If Armstead returns, he's the starting LT - but we need a young player to develop behind him, and one that can play right away when Armstead is out.  Or maybe we already have that LT in Kion Smith??  
--Also curious to see what kind of free agent deal Lamm gets - he may be too pricey for the Phins to keep with Smith and Ryan Hayes on cheap deals.  
--In any case, I'd really look to strengthen the interior OL as a priority.

i agree with you JMP, however i have a few question i keep coming back to...

Hunt.  i really like Hunt (and always have), but what is it going to take to keep him?  the 2023 top 3 paid OG:

Chris Lindstrom, Atlanta Falcons: $20.5 million (5 years, $102.5 million)
Quenton Nelson, Indianapolis Colts: $20 million (4 years, $80 million)
Elgton Jenkins, Green Bay Packers: $17 million (4 years, $68 million)

and a case can be made that Hunt is just as good or better than all of them.  but even if he was willing to take a deal that put him in this pack ($20Mish per year), can the Dolphins afford that - and more importantly, is that the best use of salary cap resources?

as far as strengthening (finding new) the other interior positions LG and C, i would think they'd have to use some combination of the draft and FA.  building through the draft would be ideal, but this year Miami has a 1st and 2nd rounder and then (currently) don't pick again until the 5th followed by two 6ths and 7th.  i'm not convinced this regime would use a 1st or 2nd on an interior Olinemen and maybe waiting until the 5th might be a bit late in hoping to find someone who can step in right away (not impossible, but maybe not as likely).  i suppose a trade back could net a 3rd rounder (a move to the bottom of the 1st would equate to a lower end 3rd rounder).

and i agree that finding Armstead's replacement is critical.  but again, does Miami have the draft ammo to do it this year?  and even is they don't find his replacement, they do need to again add a capable backup given his continues injury history.  i think the Lamm/Smith solution might be nice bandaid, but i think the position will need to be addressed with a significant draft pick eventually.  and honestly, i thought Armstead played well when he was healthy, but i'm not sure he played great - but that might be the best Miami can hope for at this stage in his career.

I don't view Hunt as one of the league's top guards, though I like him a lot. No All Pros, no Pro Bowls, coming off an injury-plagued season. I'm thinking he's more in the $8 - 10 million per year range, honestly.

Agreed on Armstead - he was very good at times, not great overall this season...obviously due to the injuries. But still, I view him as a top LT even when he's not 100%. I have a feeling he's going to retire, so his replacement becomes more urgent.

I do think center will be a draft priority this season...and round two should be the sweet spot for the position.

JMP wrote:I don't view Hunt as one of the league's top guards, though I like him a lot.  No All Pros, no Pro Bowls, coming off an injury-plagued season.  I'm thinking he's more in the $8 - 10 million per year range, honestly.

in the end, it doesn't matter what we think of him, it what he's agent believes he can get on the FA market and the willingness of Miami to match (or come close) to it. $8-$10M would slot him some where between 14th and 18th. guys like:

Nate Davis, Chicago Bears: $10 million (3 years, $30 million)
Isaac Seumalo, Pittsburgh Steelers: $8 million (3 years, $24 million)

I'm pretty certain (even with the injury) he's gonna get paid well above these guys. Even Connor Williams coming off a disappointing Cowboys career got $7.01 million per year (2 years, $14.03 million), so i expect Hunt will command north of $15M per year (by someone) which would put him only as the 7th highest paid OG.

interestingly enough, Williams salary made him the 21st highest paid OG as that is what he was signed as, but as a C he would've been the 8th highest paid. the top six range from $14.25M down to $12M so a little bump to the $9-$10M range would make him 7th highest paid and might be enough to keep him.

JMP wrote:I do think center will be a draft priority this season...and round two should be the sweet spot for the position.

maybe. but i have my doubts that McDaniel and Grier will put that much priority on it in the draft. i wish they would, but i am not convinced.

mercury22nathan wrote:i expect Hunt will command north of $15M per year (by someone) which would put him only as the 7th highest paid OG.

just double checking my numbers. most projections i've seen place Hunt even above this...

PFF projects a four-year, $70 million ($17.5 million per year), $42 million total guaranteed contract for Hunt this offseason. This deal would make Hunt the third-highest-paid right guard in the NFL (Over The Cap).

https://empiresportsmedia.com/new-york-giants/the-giants-need-to-make-signing-this-ol-robert-hunt-in-free-agency-their-top-priority/

free agency isn't always based on a players actual play, but when they hit the market and who they share that market with. while i don't believe all teams would pay Hunt in that range, i almost sure that at least 2 teams would go that high - and that is all Hunt's agent needs...and he knows it.

A few weeks ago, the Dolphins extended right tackle Austin Jackson to a new three-year, $36 million deal. The decision to extend Jackson, rather than Hunt, was a peculiar one (though extending Hunt will absolutely still be a priority for Miami).

As pointed out by Brad Spielberger of Pro Football Focus, the decision to extend Jackson first “could also be a signal that Hunt knows he can command a strong contract on the open market with a large sample size of good play.”

we shall see.

Spotrac has Hunt at a market value of 4 years, $34,166,184 - that's an average salary of $8,541,546, making him the #16 guard and in line with contracts of Austin Corbett and Alex Cappa, among others. Those contracts are a bit older, so maybe that puts Hunt up around $10 million. I don't see any way he gets close to $20 million. If he expects $15+ million, I'd let him walk.

Spotrac is really good at providing current data, but their projection algorithm is very inaccurate. i wouldn't put to much faith into it. they currently have Austin Jackson's 2024 market value around $10M, but we know he has already signed an extension for $12M. their calculated market values are always well below actual free agent contract values.

all it takes is one team to want to offer Hunt more than Miami is willing (or can) and then all it takes is two teams to try to outbid each other. and right now, there are plenty of teams that have tons of 2024 salary cap space even before cuts and extensions (i don't think Spotrac takes any of this into account like most sites do).

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-salary-cap-tracker-2024-offseason-free-agency-all-32-nfl-teams-ranked-cap-space

Hunt's agent is well aware of the landscape and what he can get for Hunt on the open market. Hunt just lucked into a good year to be a FA guard...especially consider there is really only one (maybe 2) other FA guard his caliber this year.

just as an example, Spotrac has Connor Williams market value at $13.5M.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/miami-dolphins/connor-williams-25149/market-value/

i don't think he's gonna get a contract higher than Hunt.

I agree with Merc. If the Phins let Hunt hit the open market, he will get way more than Miami wants to, is willing to, or can afford to... pay IMO.

Hunt might be the only Olineman Miami has with a bit of a nasty streak in him IMO. And even then, it ain't that big a streak.

Like I have said multiple times: Why are you expecting the Grier an Co. regime to suddenly start valuing the O Line? When he has had the chance to get a valuable, cheap Olineman (Tom and Torrence) in the draft to maybe start or use as a backup, he has bypassed them to draft a player at another position (LB and CB) where the need was not as great and the players he picked haven't even been able to get on the field much beyond special teams!!!

Talk about Dave Dumbstedt using a 2nd rounder to draft special teams 5th round rated LB!!!

As long as Grier can find the next Lester Cotton, he will think he has done a swell job IMO!

Spotrac was right in the neighborhood for Jackson - they had 10, he got 12. I expect something similar for Hunt - they have 8, I think maybe he gets 10.

Regardless, we'll know soon enough. But like I said, if Hunt plans on getting $15-20 million a year, he'll be playing for a different team next season. The Dolphins won't - and shouldn't - pay him that much money.

finfanatic wrote:Why are you expecting the Grier an Co. regime to suddenly start valuing the O Line?

Because he's shown that he does value OL very highly - by giving a big contract to Armstead, a very good deal to Williams, drafting Austin Jackson in the first round and then re-signing him to a big deal, trading up for Eich and taking him in the 2nd round, and drafting Hunt in the 2nd. That's a TON of top=shelf resources used on the OL - more than a lot of other teams.

OL is a real problem. 31st in Pass Block win rate (49%), and this is Tua's fault.

8th in Run Block Win Rate (72%) but we keep trying to run the same fuckin play.

Run blocking is scheme.

DolFan 316 wrote:

That's a great video. As I've said, there are always ways to manipulate the cap. We'll be in good shape when all is said and done - unfortunately, just like the Bills - who are also about $50 million over the cap.

i'll watch the video later, but i assume its saying the same things as this:

https://www.profootballnetwork.com/miami-dolphins-2024-nfl-salary-cap-chris-grier/

getting well under the cap won't be a problem. the problem will be upgrading the talent at critical spots while continuing to kick the can down the road. we all know where the weak areas are on this team - and even with the resources to address them - the question remains will Miami be able to adequately evaluate the talent (and have the coaches to utilize that talent) to successfully fill the obvious needs.

JMP wrote:Because he's shown that he does value OL very highly - by giving a big contract to Armstead, a very good deal to Williams, drafting Austin Jackson in the first round and then re-signing him to a big deal, trading up for Eich and taking him in the 2nd round, and drafting Hunt in the 2nd. That's a TON of top=shelf resources used on the OL - more than a lot of other teams.

I disagree... but do see your point.

The Oline is still a mess and when Grier had a chance to get some good draft help for the Oline, he went in other directions...perhaps because of the moves you mention.

IMO, Cheap drafted rookies who can start or at the very least be backups would help the cap situation and give the Phins some serious developmental Oline prospects. We are not getting that with Grier doing the drafting.

I readily admit...it's kinda hard to draft a lot of help when you have traded off all your picks or had the NFL snatch a few away, so...

We shall see what Grier and Co do this off season. At least I feel much better about the Phins Oline coaching after this season! Anyone who can make this bunch look good even part of the time is doing a great job IMO.

This Dolphins team is in flux. The oline will be completely different next year. The defense lost its premier pass rusher. Jaelan will be back but it will probably take 2 years to fully heal. Part of it is the mental aspect. We will have a new defensive coordinator running who knows what for scheme. We will still have a GM that sucks. That's the only constant I see.

CarsonChris wrote:This Dolphins team is in flux. The oline will be completely different next year. The defense lost its premier pass rusher. Jaelan will be back but it will probably take 2 years to fully heal. Part of it is the mental aspect. We will have a new defensive coordinator running who knows what for scheme. We will still have a GM that sucks. That's the only constant I see.

How sad is it that all the mock drafts we do will be FAR better than the real thing--just like every other year?

DolFan 316 wrote:

How sad is it that all the mock drafts we do will be FAR better than the real thing--just like every other year?

The 2021 draft was excellent, and we did get Achane with limited picks in 2023...but that 2022 draft was a disaster.