Re: Thread for Dolphins Free Agent signings (formerly the Aaron Brewer thread...)

[JMP]

What's up everyone. What's the consensus so far on the off season moves?  I have a not so good vibe regarding the FA acquisitions.

I'm having family issues with a relative that's gone missing. It's been taking up a lot of my free time. Mental health issues and self medicating .  

Oh man, Chris - so sorry to hear that. I can't even imagine what you're going through. Mental health issues are terrible. I had a friend in a similar situation about 10 years ago - it's gut-wrenching. Hang in there, brother.

On the offseason moves, I'm feeling very positive overall and I think we've upgraded most positions that needed upgrading. We could use another edge rusher and we need to see how the DL will play out with all the new additions. OG is still a question mark, but I feel like we have enough bodies that we'll be in good shape - and we can still add someone in the draft or free agency. But overall I think Grier has done an excellent job so far, and he has the team in position to have lots of cap space and draft picks after this season.

[HalCHorn]

Agreed, CC, hang in there.

I like what is going on with the defensive additions. O-line still needs considerable work IMO. if we can do that and have better luck with injuries this year we can get back to the postseason IMO.

[finfanatic]

Sorry to hear that, CC. I hope everything works out well.

I am not as sanguine as JMP. I think the Phins have probably taken a step back. They are not through rebuilding, restocking, and reconfiguring yet, so hopefully Grier surprises us and has a GREAT DRAFT!! Not likely IMO, but who knows? He is sure due to luck into some stellar picks hopefully.

On Offense, the Phins will probably be about like last year (UNLESS the Oline improves) but the real unknown is going to be the defense with a new DC. If the Phins D can start to resemble to Ravens D of last year...

[JMP]

Curious to see where you think we've taken a step back, FF?

I guess RG is still up in the air, but as much as we all liked Hunt and he got a massive contract, he wasn't exactly a perennial All Pro. Same thing with Wilkins on the DL. Both good/great players of course, but with the players we've brought in I don't expect a major drop-off at all. Edge rusher is also a question mark, but becomes much less of a worry if Phillips is back for the season opener - and it seems like he is trending that way. We'll also add other pieces at all of those positions IMO.

I feel like we have improved OL depth and TE on offense, and DL depth, LB and DB on defense. And we've also added two core special teams players.

[DolFan 316]

Hang in there CC!!! And know that we've got your back whenever you need us! I know these guys helped me a lot when my DolFan grandparents died and I was taking care of my dad when he had dementia.

[JEGnj]

CC hope all turns out well.
Like I said I checked out after the collapse.
I also think we took a step back. We signed some very good players on the way down and some maybes.
I'll follow draft day and see how all turns out. Still hoping for good things from Tua.

[finskev]

Will Keep You and Your Family in Prayer during this Difficult Time. God Bless

[finfanatic]

Curious to see where you think we've taken a step back, FF?

Did the Phins replace Howard? Maybe. Fuller is fairly good.

Wilkins? No
Hunt? No
AVG? Maybe?

Williams? No. Brewer ain't close to Williams IMO. They have a guy who CAN play C, but...

As Jegni says a lot of maybe?

And who knows if Weaver is gonna be better than Fangio?

Overall, I'd have to say they are probably not as talented as last year's team... right now.

Just go check out the Super Bowl Betting lines and that will tell you. The Phins were +2500 last year and are at +2500 right now too.

Just for comparison though, the Jets were +1600 in 2023 before AA-Ron's injury and are at +2500 for the 2024 season.

Odds makers certainly don't see any improvement for the Phins.

[DolFan 316]

Curious to see where you think we've taken a step back, FF?

Did the Phins replace Howard? Maybe. Fuller is fairly good.

Wilkins? No
Hunt? No
AVG? Maybe?

Williams? No. Brewer ain't close to Williams IMO. They have a guy who CAN play C, but...

As Jegni says a lot of maybe?

And who knows if Weaver is gonna be better than Fangio?

Overall, I'd have to say they are probably not as talented as last year's team... right now.

Just go check out the Super Bowl Betting lines and that will tell you. The Phins were +2500 last year and are at +2500 right now too.

Just for comparison though, the Jets were +1600 in 2023 before AA-Ron's injury and are at +2500 for the 2024 season.

Odds makers certainly don't see any improvement for the Phins.

At the risk of stepping on other people's toes (I'm looking at you Jmp and white1) I disagree with some of that.  But only some

Everybody's freaking out about Wilkins but if anything this team actually has far more DT depth than last season, and Tart can stuff the run about as well as Wilkins did for a tiny fraction of what Wilkins is making now. He won't get the sacks, but then again Wilkins wasn't a big sack guy before last season either, which is what led to him not being extended in the first place. IMO Fuller will be at least as good as Howard was the last two seasons. The LB corps looks improved from last season already, at least on paper.

I do feel that Shaq Barrett is a downgrade from AVG (the one departure that still hurts my soul) and Brewer worries me. Weaver was a guy lots of people wanted and seems to be as good as anybody else the Fins could've gotten to replace Fangio who was leaving regardless. His relationship to the players will certainly be a lot better for sure. If Grier stops being himself, or there's a plot by DolFans to kidnap him and take over the draft themselves (wink, nudge) Hunt's replacement could easily be selected as well as another edge guy. After all, even with his scarcity of picks the last two years Grier still *could've* taken much better players, it's not as if they just weren't available. IMO the Super Bowl odds remaining the same predraft is actually a GOOD thing since it tells me Vegas thinks this team pretty much stayed the same overall. I was expecting a significant drop TBH. If they can actually stay healthy, or at least healthier, then they certainly could reach the playoffs again. The Bills don't seem to have gotten any better either.

Or Tua could get injured for the season 2-3 games in, in which case everything else is rendered completely moot.

[finfanatic]

Oh, I forgot to mention, the Phins prior odds were +2000. They dropped 500 points AFTER free agency.

[61finfan]

Hoping all turns out well CC.

[JMP]

Yeah, I don't really care about oddmakers' opinions. I go by what I see.

My take on the things you brought up:

Did the Phins replace Howard? Yes. Fuller has been bettre than Howard over the last couple of years.

Wilkins? Yes - not with one player, but several. And we're moving to a rotation system on the DL, so we won't have one player getting 90+ percent of snaps anymore.

Hunt? Yes - we have several candidates for RG.

AVG? Yes, with a full-time starter that has had much more success as a pass rusher than AVG.

Williams? Yes. Brewer may end up being a better fit for this offense, as his explosiveness off the snap and mobility are better than Williams.

I'd also add that we have improved by quite a bit at S and LB.

[finfanatic]

Which DT is going to put up the same numbers as Wilkins?

When I talk about replacement I mean replacing the performance, not just taking up a roster spot.

Yeah, the Phins signed a lot of guys, but which one is going to be able to put pressure on the QB and stop the run the way Wilkins does?

There is a reason (actually more than one) Wilkins got paid what he got paid and the Phins were able to load up on journeymen DTs.

Yeah, I don't really care about oddmakers' opinions. I go by what I see.

That's EXACTLY what the oddsmakers do too. They go by what they see and as of now and the Phins are 500 points worse than they were before the free agent period going by people who make money doing the looking.

I think what you meant was "The oddsmakers could be wrong."

I HOPE you are correct, JMP, but the "odds" are not all of these free agent signings are going to be for the better.

Let's see what the odds are when pre-season rolls around.

[JMP]

Which DT is going to put up the same numbers as Wilkins?

When I talk about replacement I mean replacing the performance, not just taking up a roster spot.

Yeah, the Phins signed a lot of guys, but which one is going to be able to put pressure on the QB and stop the run the way Wilkins does?

There is a reason (actually more than one) Wilkins got paid what he got paid and the Phins were able to load up on journeymen DTs.

Yeah, I don't really care about oddmakers' opinions. I go by what I see.

That's EXACTLY what the oddsmakers do too. They go by what they see and as of now and the Phins are 500 points worse than they were before the free agent period going by people who make money doing the looking.

I think what you meant was "The oddsmakers could be wrong."

I HOPE you are correct, JMP, but the "odds" are not all of these free agent signings are going to be for the better.

Let's see what the odds are when pre-season rolls around.

We don't need one player to give us the same stats as Wilkins. As I pointed out, we will be using a DL rotation - so there won't be one player getting all the snaps. Yep, there is a reason Wilkins got paid: he was a free agent and lots of teams had tons of money to spend. That's the way it works. He's a very good player for sure, but he's not irreplaceable.

I'm talking about performance projection as well - not just roster spots. I just happen to like the fit of the replacements we added more than you - or the ever-elusive "oddsmakers" do. Fact is, none of know how things will turn out - it's all a guess. You are choosing to look at it from a negative view, while I have a positive stance - all good, it's just opinion in the end. But I will say, I find it very funny that now everyone thinks Wilkins and Hunt are top-shelf players...when most people barely who knew they were before free agency, and the league didn't think enough of them to give them Pro Bowl or All Pro consideration at any point in their careers.

Yep, the oddsmakers could be right or wrong - and I also don't care about their opinions. Both statements can be, and are, correct. I make my assessment based on my own knowledge and opinions, not those of random, unknown people.

[DolFan 316]

Sorry FF, gotta side with Jmp on this one.

Wilkins and Hunt were good players who wanted great player money, and got it only because like everyone else these days NFL teams have gone insane. Next season Wilkins' cap number will be about the same as Tyreek's cap number right now Is *any* DT not named Aaron Donald worth that much? Is Donald himself even worth that much?

https://overthecap.com/player/christian-wilkins/7804

And for the next four seasons, Hunt's cap number will be about as much as Tua's is right now--and most people don't think Tua needs to be paid even more.

https://overthecap.com/player/robert-hunt/8779

Would any of YOU give up Tyreek to keep Wilkins OR Hunt? I know I wouldn't.

If it's so impossible for this team to replace either of those guys, then how is it that they managed to draft players that good to begin with? According to the internet, they have the chance to draft players at least that good in just a couple of days with their current pics of 21 and 55 withot even having to trade up at all.

Also, if the team gets the same production at DT from, say, 3 players that they got from just Wilkins then isn't that essentially the same? It certainly wouldn't be a net negative. What's the real difference between, say, one RB with 1600 yards rushing VS three players combining for that much?

[DolFan 316]

More on why the loss of Wilkins isn't as damaging and disastrous as DolFans think.

https://www.reddit.com/r/miamidolphins/comments/1cawanm/the_offseason_with_cidolfus_2024_pre_draft/

(I suggest you read the whole thing BTW, really good stuff. Reddit's not bad if you can find the non-woke parts. Yes, they do exist.)

Interior Defensive Line

The Dolphins currently have nine interior defensive linemen under contract: Zach Sieler, Da’shawn Hand, Jonathan Harris, Benito Jones, Neville Gallimore, Isaiah Mack, Daviyon Nixon, Brandon Pili, and Teair Tart. The combined 2024 salary cap charge of these nine players is only $16,871,500.

Even on a heavily back-loaded deal, Christian Wilkins alone will count for $10,300,000 against the Raiders’s salary cap in 2024. If that doesn’t scream asset reprioritization, I don’t know what does. It’s unlikely that the Dolphins carry more than five interior defensive linemen onto the final 53 roster. Depending on who those five end up being, it’s entirely possible that the cap charge we carry into week one for interior defensive lineman is barely more than Wilkins’s 2024 cap charge alone for the Raiders.

And then later on...

It should be pretty clear that the decision to move off of Wilkins was not motivated by scheme. There’s little reason to believe that had we kept Wilkins that his or Sieler’s role would have changed dramatically with the change at coordinator. This was purely a decision not to try and meet Wilkins’s market--and given what he was ultimately paid, that’s a defensible position.

So what will the Dolphins do to replace Wilkins? Is drafting a defensive tackle in the cards? Consider the 2023 defensive snaps by position along the defensive line among the five free agent interior defensive linemen the Dolphins have signed or re-signed this year:

Player DT NT DE DEO OLB
Teair Tart 228 143 6 0 0
Jonathan Harris 311 1 194 21 1
Benito Jones 423 116 25 2 0
Neville Gallimore 216 26 43 1 1
Da’Shawn Hand 168 5 26 0 0

While there’s some momentum behind drafting an interior defensive lineman in the first two rounds, I’m not holding my breath based on the moves that the Dolphins have made so far. Nobody in the list above strikes fear into the hearts of opposing offensive lines, but among them and alongside Zach Sieler, we’re looking roughly at the snap counts that the Dolphins are looking to replicate on the defensive interior.

There’s a very reasonable bet that the Dolphins head into the 2024 season with Sieler and four of the five above. Gallimore and Jones are both very cheap, but both also have fully-guaranteed deals that likely guarantee their roster spot. Hand and Harris both offer unremarkable savings, but their contracts are replaceable. Between Sieler, Gallimore, and Jones, that’s three players locked into what’s likely going to be only five spots on the interior defensive line with six players under contract already competing for those last two spots. Tart has the leg up there. Nearly half of his contract is guaranteed, making him more expensive to replace even with a minimum salary contract than to keep, though not by much.

While it’s not inconceivable that the Dolphins could draft an interior defensive lineman at 21 or 55, the current roster construction suggests it's unlikely. Jer’Zhan Newton or Byron Murphy II could very well be on the board at 21, but I wouldn’t hold my breath. Unless someone we really love falls to 55, all signs point to the Dolphins relying on cheap veteran depth to fill out their rotation on the interior defensive line.

This has been my assertion since the end of FA and it makes perfect sense to me but apparently not to anybody else except this guy. I maintain that the one FA departure we *should* be freaking out about is AVG, because it leaves a bigger hole that's yet to be filled. Even if you think Shaq Barrett's better that's still just a one for one exchange and doesn't account for Chubb's injury. And I'm telling everybody right now--do NOT be surprised if he has to miss the entire season.

[mercury22nathan]

Sorry FF, gotta side with Jmp on this one.

I’m currently leaning team FF on this one. I’m not gonna argue that Miami should’ve kept either Wilkins or Hunt at the contract value they received in free agency. I could potentially argue that if Miami knew they couldn’t/wouldn’t match either, then they should’ve traded them when they could and received some kind of confirmed high compensation. And I know some will argue that Miami will get compensatory picks. And yes, those 3rd rounders (hopefully two of them) will be nice, but they are/were conditional. In order for Miami to receive those picks, they couldn’t sign any players that are/were equal to what they were losing for fear of upsetting the compensatory balance sheet. If they had traded them, Miami would have had those draft assets outright regardless of what else they did in free agency. But Miami was in “win now” mode…and well, they didn’t win enough…and took the risk of keeping those players in one shot season that fell short. So then I must ask, if Miami kept them because they were in a one season “win now” mode, does that mean that since they’ve let them go, they are no longer in “win now” mode? If we’re all gonna argue that the gyrations Miami has done to replace Hunt and Wilkins are acceptable for a competing team, then why wouldn’t it have been acceptable last year? Miami still could’ve signed a cadre of free agents and journey men to take up their snaps (as is the plan now) and had draft picks for Wilkins and Hunt.

So the issue isn’t not keeping Wilkins and Hunt, it’s not signing (thus far) players that are even close enough in talent for a team that is supposedly still in “win now” mode. Sure, they have found a bunch of guys to take up Wilkins’ snaps, but if they don’t perform at Wilkins level then it is all for naught. And I’m not sure how anyone can argue that the guys currently on the roster can replace Hunt as those are the same guys that were his backups last year and failed when he was out hurt. Let’s hope they find a couple plug and play guards in the draft (but based on past drafting history, I’m not holding my breath).

I do not agree that Brewer is better than Williams. And I know I am not alone in that assessment. But I will allow that others might feel differently, but I suspect that if this question had been asked midway through last season (prior to Williams’ injury), I can’t imagine anyone would’ve expressed an opinion in Brewer’s favor. Its just bad luck that William’s injury is as bad as it was. And maybe Brewer was the best they could do, but that doesn’t make it an upgrade or even an equal talent. Again, my opinion…based on watching each one’s performance based on the video available. I hope I’m wrong.

I am still concerned about… LT depth as Armstead will get injured again, but that was a concern last year. RBs are the same and hopefully Achane is fully healthy. There is currently no worthy 3rd WR and this was a huge problem last year. I believe TE is about the same as it was last year and I don’t think it’s a focus of this offense anyways. Due to injuries, there is no depth at pass rusher or even more than one temporary option to start the season. And as DF has pointed out, long term safety depth must be addressed.

I will concede that I believe CB will be better this year. Ramsey is still Ramsey and I believe Fuller at this stage is better than an aging (still unemployed) Howard spelled by an awful Apple. I’m also hopeful that ILB will be better. And maybe, just maybe with better ILB’s and a steady Seiler plus some space fillers and a scheme tweak, the loss of Wilkins will be minimized (me trying to be optimistic).

All in all, I do not think Miami is better right now than they were when at full strength last year. But we still have the draft and a second spate of minor free agency prior to training camp plus end of camp releases. So again, to try and be optimistic, they are not better now but could maybe get there by September. Ask me if the needle is moving in that direction after the draft.

[Sponsored content]