My NFL first round mock, 2024

Without trades.

1 Bears - QB Caleb Williams, USC
2 Commanders - QB Jayden Daniels, LSU
3 Patriots – QB JJ McCarthy, Michigan
4 Cardinals – WR Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State
5 Chargers – OT Joe Alt, Notre Dame
6 Giants - QB Drake Maye, North Carolina
7 Titans – WR Malik Nabers, LSU
8 Falcons – Edge Dallas Turner, Alabama
9 Bears – WR Rome Odunze, Washington
10 Jets - TE Brock Bowers, Georgia
11 Vikings – QB Michael Penix Jr., Washington
12 Broncos – QB Bo Nix, Oregon
13 Raiders – CB Quinyon Mitchell, Toledo
14 Saints – OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Penn State
15 Colts – CB Terrion Arnold, Alabama
16 Seahawks – DT Byron Murphy, Texas
17 Jaguars - CB Kool-Aid McKinstry, Alabama
18 Bengals – OT Troy Fautanu, Washington
19 Rams – DT Jer'Zhan Newton, Illinois
20 Steelers – DB Cooper DeJean, Iowa
21 Dolphins – Edge Jared Verse, Florida State
22 Eagles – CB Nate Wiggins, Clemson
23 Vikings – OT Taliese Fuaga, Oregon State
24 Cowboys – OT Tyler Guyton, Oklahoma
25 Packers – OT JC Latham, Alabama
26 Bucs – Edge Laiatu Latu, UCLA
27 Cardinals – DL Braden Fiske, Florida State
28 Bills – WR Brian Thomas, LSU
29 Lions – CB Ennis Rakestraw, Missouri
30 Ravens – OT Amarius Mims, Georgia
31 49ers – OL Graham Barton, Duke
32 Chiefs - WR Adonai Mitchell, Texas


The Dolphins stick to their board and draft the best player available - Jared Verse.  Verse would have gone top 15 if not for the absurd run on QBs.  There were lots of good OL prospects available, but I have Verse ranked ahead of all of them.  I think the Phins go with a guard in round 2...and I'm hoping for Cooper Beebe.

I initially had the Cards taking LB Edgerrin Cooper at 27 - but then I realized that Fiske was still available.

It may be crazy for the Broncos to draft Nix so high, but have you seen their QB depth chart?  Zach Wilson, Jarrett Stidham, Ben DiNucci.  It really doesn't get any worse than that, and even if Nix is only average (slightly above, at best?) he does have tons of experience and can start right away.

Let me know what you think.

EDIT: I swapped Fashanu (now 14 to the Saints) and Fuaga (now 23 to Vikes), after taking merc's thoughts into consideration and also hearing about Fuaga possibly having a chronic leg issue.

i was about to anoint you a mock draft GOD, but i have one small bone to pick. i can't see either the Saints or Bengals taking their respective picks over OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Penn State. other than that, i think you've done a phenomenal job.

as to the Dolphins pick, i would be pleased with Verse (if he falls that far) and i'm guessing you waffled between Verse and Latu??

i would also be sick to my stomach if the Bills get Thomas.

Verse would be an excellent pick for us IMO.

Re: Latu - I think even Grier is going to shy away from him on the medicals, which is a shame - he's certainly got the best pass rush moves of anyone in this draft.

mercury22nathan wrote:i was about to anoint you a mock draft GOD, but i have one small bone to pick.  i can't see either the Saints or Bengals taking their respective picks over OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Penn State.  other than that, i think you've done a phenomenal job.

as to the Dolphins pick, i would be pleased with Verse (if he falls that far) and i'm guessing you waffled between Verse and Latu??

i would also be sick to my stomach if the Bills get Thomas.

I personally do have Fashanu a bit below the others, but in my mind most of these tackles are fairly evenly matched.

If I was choosing, I'd take Latu over Verse - but Grier LOVES value, and I suspect he has Verse ranked as a top 15 pick.  Getting him at 21 is a minor steal that I think Grier would jump on it.

This is a strange draft for me.  I'm not really pounding the table for any one player, besides Bowers.  I just want the Phins to get a legit starter with upside...I don't really care about the position.

And yes, the Bills getting Thomas would SUCK!!

Liked just for having the Rams take Newton, which makes such perfect sense. I won't even mention that I'm the one who first floated the idea. Nope, I'm too modest for that.

It seems crazy to most people, but like Jmp I really do think now that Turner could actually be the only edge guy taken before 21. I also think the Lions will shock the world and go with Marshawn Kneeland at 29, you saw it here first

JMP wrote:This is a strange draft for me.  I'm not really pounding the table for any one player, besides Bowers.  I just want the Phins to get a legit starter with upside...I don't really care about the position.

If the first TWO picks aren't starters, this draft is a failure. Again. I'm not even counting on the day 3 picks to do anything unless one of them is a safety. But even so, there's no point wasting either of the first two picks on DT or OT or even WR with the crying needs at edge, interior O-line and safety. I see no reason why a smart drafter couldn't get those positions later even in the 5th and 6th. Then again since when has Grier been a smart drafter?

DolFan 316 wrote:Liked just for having the Rams take Newton, which makes such perfect sense. I won't even mention that I'm the one who first floated the idea. Nope, I'm too modest for that.

It seems crazy to most people, but like Jmp I really do think now that Turner could actually be the only edge guy taken before 21. I also think the Lions will shock the world and go with Marshawn Kneeland at 29, you saw it here first

Yeah, I obviously have a lot of the edge and OL going lower than most people expect, but I think that just highlights what a strange draft this is. I'm not seeing as much consensus as usual. A lot of it comes down to the QBs. Is Maye really slipping? Do teams like McCarthy as much as it seems? Are Penix and Nix really first rounders? Answers to those questions will play a huge role in possible trades. I think the potential is there for a pretty wild first round.

JMP wrote:Yeah, I obviously have a lot of the edge and OL going lower than most people expect, but I think that just highlights what a strange draft this is.  I'm not seeing as much consensus as usual.  A lot of it comes down to the QBs.  Is Maye really slipping?  Do teams like McCarthy as much as it seems?  Are Penix and Nix really first rounders?  Answers to those questions will play a huge role in possible trades.  I think the potential is there for a pretty wild first round.

Penix and Nix are in fact NOT first rounders, but they'll be taken there for the same reason women constantly marry jerks--sheer desperation.

Again, the first half of the first round is far more interesting to me than what Grier will do, which is why I will actually keep track of it.

DolFan 316 wrote:

JMP wrote:This is a strange draft for me.  I'm not really pounding the table for any one player, besides Bowers.  I just want the Phins to get a legit starter with upside...I don't really care about the position.

If the first TWO picks aren't starters, this draft is a failure.

yes. all of this. 1000 times. whiffing (again) on high picks can not continue. Miami must get 2 above average starters out of the first 2 picks.

mercury22nathan wrote:

DolFan 316 wrote:

JMP wrote:This is a strange draft for me.  I'm not really pounding the table for any one player, besides Bowers.  I just want the Phins to get a legit starter with upside...I don't really care about the position.

If the first TWO picks aren't starters, this draft is a failure.

yes.  all of this.  1000 times.  whiffing (again) on high picks can not continue.  Miami must get 2 above average starters out of the first 2 picks.

Fortunately, Grier has done an excellent job with high picks...when he actually has them.

Here are the 1st and 2nd rounders since 2019, and my assessment of "hit" or "miss":

2019: 1st round, Wilkins - HIT
2020: 1st round, Tua - HIT
2020: 1st round, Jackson - HIT
2020: 1st round, Iggy - MISS
2020: 2nd round, Hunt - HIT
2020: 2nd round, Davis - HIT (while acknowledging that opinions may vary)
2021: 1st round, Waddle - HIT
2021: 1st round, Phillips - HIT
2021: 2nd round, Holland - HIT
2021: 2nd round, Eich - HIT/MISS (as much as we kill him, he's been a valuable piece and does what is asked of him)
2023: 1st round, Smith - ???

That's 11 picks, and by my count Grier had 1 clear miss, 1 "meh" pick, 8 hits, and 1 incomplete. That's a damn good track record for early round picks IMO.

Regardless, YES: we MUST get above average starters in rounds 1 and 2!!

JMP wrote:
Regardless, YES: we MUST get above average starters in rounds 1 and 2!!

Actually, let me clarify that. The two players don't necessarily need to be day 1 starters - but they do need to be immediately impactful difference-makers. For example, a WR probably wouldn't be a day 1 starter, but if we go with a WR it needs to be a guy that plays early and often and makes the offense "level up".

Yeah, I am getting some strange vibes on this draft.

Right now it would not shock me if there were some big trades done.

Then again, every time I expect that, the draft is usually boring and predictable.

I certainly HOPE teams trade up early and often for QBs though. That should push some good players down to the Phins.

EDIT to add - Great mock JMP.

Mark this down in the "the draft can't come soon enough" department: there is internet chatter that the Chargers could trade Herbert for a boatload of picks. Obviously this won't happen (I doubt they could handle the cap hit even if they did want to trade him), but it's an interesting thought. They lost all of their offensive weapons and their D is a mess - AND Harbaugh wants a run-based offense. It does make some sense, impossibly unlikely as it may be.

JMP wrote:The two players don't necessarily need to be day 1 starters - but they do need to be immediately impactful difference-makers.

i'll agree with that caveat.

however, if i may...

2019: 1st round, Wilkins – Not on team
2020: 1st round, Tua - HIT
2020: 1st round, Jackson – Supposed to be LT of future settled finally as starting RT
2020: 1st round, Iggy - BUST
2020: 2nd round, Hunt – Not on team
2020: 2nd round, Davis – Not on team
2021: 1st round, Waddle - HIT
2021: 1st round, Phillips – HIT (injured)
2021: 2nd round, Holland – HIT (took a step back, but he’s starting)
2021: 2nd round, Eich – Traded up for but has never settled in as an effective starter anywhere
2023: 1st round, Smith – BUST

From the 11 picks above over the last 5 drafts, the Dolphins would have only 4 starters of varying abilities and 1 injured starter (for the 22 off and def needed) projected for the 2024 opener. Sure would be nice (critical) to add to that in this draft. But based on the data, of the top 2 picks Miami currently possesses, Grier will find 1 decent starter who contributes to the team getting better and 1 player who has no long term impact (while some GMs find future pro bowlers). Perhaps we should manage our expectations now.

I get what you're saying, merc, but the fact that some of those players are no longer on the team really has no bearing on whether or not they were good picks, or "hits" as I am calling them. If anything, those players turned out to be so good that the Phins could no longer afford them.

The main takeaway, for me, is that Grier has made some very good picks in the early rounds since he took over as the "true" GM of the team. It's easy to kill him for Iggy and some other misses, and "he should have drafted X instead of Y", but we can play that game with every GM in the league. But the early rounds aren't the issue - it's the later rounds, as we've seen the past two drafts.

JMP wrote:Mark this down in the "the draft can't come soon enough" department: there is internet chatter that the Chargers could trade Herbert for a boatload of picks.  Obviously this won't happen (I doubt they could handle the cap hit even if they did want to trade him), but it's an interesting thought.  They lost all of their offensive weapons and their D is a mess - AND Harbaugh wants a run-based offense.  It does make some sense, impossibly unlikely as it may be.

yep, not sure it could happen from a salary cap perspective unless there is someway for the new team to take on some of the dead cap. although the Chargers have plenty of cap space, but does Harbaugh really want to hamstring himself from the get go? but if we were to play along, who would be the likely landing spots? of the QB needy teams, i don't think Kraft would allow such a trade and Denver is an intra-divisional rival. Maybe Washington with the new ownership wanting to make a splash and they have the cap space, but would they part with the no. 2 overall for Herbert AND his salary (maybe a pick flip and some other later picks)? Minnesota seems a likely possibility as they do dumb draft stuff and desperately need a qualified QB to step right in and not waste Jefferson's career. But i'm not sure they have the cap space especially consider they need to pay the aforementioned Jefferson. my sleeper pick would Seattle. It would make so much sense with Geno Smith on a one-year deal and Herbert would be closer to "home", but i think Seattle would have to release half their team given their salary cap woes.

anyway, let's start another hypothetical.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/40018124/source-bengals-pro-bowl-de-trey-hendrickson-requests-trade

Hendrickson to Miami. it fills a need. what would it take?

mercury22nathan wrote:

JMP wrote:Mark this down in the "the draft can't come soon enough" department: there is internet chatter that the Chargers could trade Herbert for a boatload of picks.  Obviously this won't happen (I doubt they could handle the cap hit even if they did want to trade him), but it's an interesting thought.  They lost all of their offensive weapons and their D is a mess - AND Harbaugh wants a run-based offense.  It does make some sense, impossibly unlikely as it may be.

yep, not sure it could happen from a salary cap perspective unless there is someway for the new team to take on some of the dead cap.  although the Chargers have plenty of cap space, but does Harbaugh really want to hamstring himself from the get go?  but if we were to play along, who would be the likely landing spots?  of the QB needy teams, i don't think Kraft would allow such a trade and Denver is an intra-divisional rival.  Maybe Washington with the new ownership wanting to make a splash and they have the cap space, but would they part with the no. 2 overall for Herbert AND his salary (maybe a pick flip and some other later picks)?  Minnesota seems a likely possibility as they do dumb draft stuff and desperately need a qualified QB to step right in and not waste Jefferson's career.  But i'm not sure they have the cap space especially consider they need to pay the aforementioned Jefferson.  my sleeper pick would Seattle.  It would make so much sense with Geno Smith on a one-year deal and Herbert would be closer to "home", but i think Seattle would have to release half their team given their salary cap woes.

anyway, let's start another hypothetical.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/40018124/source-bengals-pro-bowl-de-trey-hendrickson-requests-trade

Hendrickson to Miami.  it fills a need.  what would it take?

I think the Vikes would be the team that would go "all in" for Herbert, if I had to choose just one possibility.

Hendrickson demanded a trade and supposedly also discussed retirement...so I'm not sure where his head is at. He's a great player and I think his value is a first plus additional picks. I don't like the trade for Miami - too many picks and too much money (he'll want a new contract).

As much as I love my Owls, I'd have to pass on the price. Of course if they'd just drafted Hendricksen like I wanted back in 2017 we would have had him kicking ass in our uniform for the past 7 years.....

HalCHorn wrote:Of course if they'd just drafted Hendricksen like I wanted back in 2017 we would have had him kicking ass in our uniform for the past 7 years.....

unless of course they let him go ala Wilkins and Hunt much like the Saints did after his breakout year 4. either way, it would've been worlds better than the guy Miami just had to select 6 spots prior: Cordrea Tankersley. oddly enough, picked in between the two is new Phin, Jonnu Smith.

JMP wrote:I don't like the trade for Miami - too many picks and too much money (he'll want a new contract).

i agree that Miami probably can't afford him and it is probably time to stop trading away future draft assets for expensive free agents. and while Cincy is saying they have no interest in trading him (what else are they gonna say), i am curious what it would take.

trade with the Denver Broncos for Pro Bowl linebacker Bradley Chubb and a 2025 fifth-round pick in exchange for running back Chase Edmonds, a 2023 first-round pick and a 2024 fourth-round pick

https://www.miamidolphins.com/news/miami-dolphins-make-trade-with-denver#:~:text=MIAMI%20GARDENS%2C%20Fla.,%2Dround%20pick%2C%20pending%20physicals.

Chubb was 25 at the time and Hendrickson is 29 AND wants an extension. i suspect any deal for Hendrickson would be much less than what Miami gave up for Chubb.

Yeah, age is a big factor in a Hendrickson trade. Regardless, he's out of my price range both in terms of picks and $$$ if I'm the Phins. The talk of retirement, which could just be a "trade me" tactic, is also a big concern for me.

I like our Pick, But I think Nix and Mccarthy are both Bust Material and are going to be drafted way to High. JC Latham is being projected as high #5 or mid 20's in most mock's.

finskev wrote:JC Latham is being projected as high #5 or mid 20's in most mock's.

My only issue with Latham is that I view him as a right tackle (possibly guard too) only. A very good right tackle, but I don't like drafting RT or OG early. I wouldn't touch him till the 20s. I have no doubt that he'll go in the first, but top 10 would be way too high for me. I reserve high OL picks for LTs only, or linemen that at least project to LT in the near future.