JMP's 1st round NFL Mock

Made a lot of changes over the past week...here it is:

1. Jacksonville Jaguars - QB Trevor Lawrence, Clemson
2. New York Jets - QB Zach Wilson, BYU
3. San Francisco 49ers - QB Mac Jones, Alabama
4. Atlanta Falcons - TE Kyle Pitts, Florida
5. Cincinnati Bengals - OT Penei Sewell, Oregon
6. Miami Dolphins - WR DeVonta Smith, Alabama
7. Detroit Lions - WR Ja'Marr Chase, LSU
8. Carolina Panthers - QB Justin Fields, Ohio State
9. Denver Broncos -QB Trey Lance, North Dakota State
10. Dallas Cowboys - LB Micah Parsons, Penn State
11. New York Giants - WR Jaylen Waddle, Alabama
12. Philadelphia Eagles - CB Jaycee Horn, South Carolina
13. Los Angeles Chargers - OT Christian Darrisaw, Virginia Tech
14. Minnesota Vikings - DE Jaelan Phillips, Miami
15. New England Patriots - CB Patrick Surtain, Alabama
16. Arizona Cardinals - RB Travis Etienne, Clemson
17. Las Vegas Raiders - DL Gregory Rousseau, Miami
18. Miami Dolphins - RB Najee Harris, Alabama
19. Washington Football Team - OT Alex Leatherwood, Alabama
20. Chicago Bears - OL Rashawn Slater, Northwestern
21. Indianapolis Colts - OL Alijah Vera-Tucker, USC
22. Tennessee Titans - WR Rashod Bateman, Minnesota
23. New York Jets - DE Kwity Pae, Michigan
24. Pittsburgh Steelers - LB Zaven Collins, Tulsa
25. Jacksonville Jaguars - DT Christian Barmore, Alabama
26. Cleveland Browns - LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Notre Dame
27. Baltimore Ravens - DE Boogie Basham, Wake Forest
28. New Orleans Saints - CB Greg Newsome, Northwestern
29. Green Bay Packers - WR Terrace Marshall, LSU
30. Buffalo Bills - DT Levi Onwuzurike, Washington
31. Baltimore Ravens -OT Teven Jenkins, Oklahoma State
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - OT Dillon Radunz, North Dakota State

Great mock JMP! Based on the players available, here's what I would have done.

At 6, while I would be happy with Smith, having Chase available I'm pulling the trigger. It's a minor preference and again I'd be thrilled with either, I just prefer what Chase brings to the table a bit more than I like Smith.

At 18, I gamble that I can get a good RB in round 2. So, instead of selecting Harris I would have taken DE Jayson Oweh. I'm betting on his elite athletic traits and my coaching staff, which will turn his talent into premier pass rush production.

I think Smith's versatility, work ethic and college production are what Miami will covet - along with his top-notch hands and route-running. He just seems like he checks every box for what Miami wants. Chase is good, but I just can't get over the fact that he played only one full season as a starter. And again, he's primarily a boundary receiver...where we already have Fuller, Parker and Williams. Smith can play everywhere.

As for Oweh, I might break my TV if the Phins select him. No more workout warriors! I want a guy that can actually produce and make an impact. As you can see, I don't even rate him as a first rounder. Some team may take a chance in the first because of his athleticism, but I sure hope it isn't the Phins.

BTW, before this version I had the Falcons taking Fields - which would drop Pitts to #6. I'd love to know who is higher on Miami's board - Pitts or Smith. My guess is they either had them rated the same or Smith was higher - otherwise, the trade down from 3 and back up to 6 wouldn't have made sense.

My first versions had Fields going to the Niners at 3, but apparently Jones is their target...crazy that they gave up that much to get him!

Maybe Grier is pulling the wool over everyone's eyes, and he is going to go Smith at #6, but his weight is a big concern IMO.

It may be a smokescreen, but the word is the Phins are all in on Waddle at #6! Where that word is coming from is anyone's guess?
If he is the next Tyreek Hill, then I can understand why.

Chase spent all of last year in a WR training program. I can see why he is rated #1 WR. He might be the best all around WR in the draft. Except for Pitts of course!



I will believe the Najee pick at #18 when I see it? Or maybe not. Maybe the Steelers trade up to #18 with the Phins and THEY take Harris at #18!

I don't know, maybe it is the trade of "Wreck" Flowers, but I am getting that old familiar bad feeling before a Phins draft again! Like when Wannstedt was doing it!

There is a chance Grier ROYALLY screws this up! I hope not, but the signs, the indications, the OMENS, if you will... are foreboding!

"I feel a great disturbance in the (Phins) Force."

finfanatic wrote:Maybe Grier is pulling the wool over everyone's eyes, and he is going to go Smith at #6, but his weight is a big concern IMO.

It may be a smokescreen, but the word is the Phins are all in on Waddle at #6! Where that word is coming from is anyone's guess?
If he is the next Tyreek Hill, then I can understand why.

Chase spent all of last year in a WR training program. I can see why he is rated #1 WR. He might be the best all around WR in the draft. Except for Pitts of course!

I don't think Smith at 6 would be a surprise at all. In fact, I'd be surprised if they pick anyone other than Smith - unless it is Pitts. As I said, Smith seems like an ideal fit for Miami.

Waddle at 6 really doesn't make sense to me, but I suppose it is possible.

Chase may have practiced WR during the season, but Smith actually played it - and dominated. Again, I just can't imagine Grier drafting a one-year starter at 6 that didn't take a snap in the 2020 season.

If Grier messes this up, I am rage quitting the rest of the draft. Just so you guys know.

One guy whose opinion I respect had them taking...Sewell and Oweh! That would make this draft at LEAST one of the five WORST in franchise history before the second round!

BTW I just hope Jmp didn't shoot his prediction wad with his (in)famous Fins over Bears call of '06 because I REALLY want him to be right about Smith!

I heard today that the Bengals are taking Chase and that Terrace Marshall is dropping due to injury concerns. I may have to make some adjustments later...

I am not worried about the Phins taking Sewell. As I've said many times: I don't see the Phins using a top 10 pick on a one-year starter that hasn't played since 2019. Plus, Sewell missed half of his freshman season with an injury. So you're talking about a guy that hasn't played much at all.

JMP wrote:I am not worried about the Phins taking Sewell.  As I've said many times: I don't see the Phins using a top 10 pick on a one-year starter that hasn't played since 2019.  Plus, Sewell missed half of his freshman season with an injury.  So you're talking about a guy that hasn't played much at all.

I find it almost impossible to believe Grier actually gave away a first to trade up to 6 for an OT. Almost. Grier's capable of anything, good OR bad!

And if Sewell is the pick, I'm walking away right then and there. After some raging, of course. And I have a feeling I won't be the only one!

But imagine starting with the #3 pick and coming out of the first round with NO impact offensive playmakers

Yeah, it would suck to not get an impact player at 6. I wouldn't be devastated if we drafted Sewell because he can help the offense, but it's a huge missed opportunity if we walk away without a difference maker.

JMP wrote:Yeah, it would suck to not get an impact player at 6.  I wouldn't be devastated if we drafted Sewell because he can help the offense, but it's a huge missed opportunity if we walk away without a difference maker.

I am counting on you to commiserate with me if it happens BTW. Seriously.

Chargers reportedly trying to move up to draft Sewell. You know Trader Grier will be monitoring that situation if the Bengals pass on Sewell...

JMP wrote:Chargers reportedly trying to move up to draft Sewell.  You know Trader Grier will be monitoring that situation if the Bengals pass on Sewell...

Grier would literally be an idiot if he actually trades down to 13 after having #12 and then spending a first to trade up to 6. In that case I'd be walking away from the draft BEFORE his first pick is even made!

EDIT: A source of mine actually has the Lions making that trade with the Chargers so they can get Sewell...and then the Lions snagging Smith at 13 after the Fins took Waddle at 6 with Pitts and Chase gone.

Man, 316 said source and shiz

I made some changes to my mock - most notably, Justin Fields falling all the way to...the Patriots at 15!

1. Jacksonville Jaguars - QB Trevor Lawrence, Clemson
2. New York Jets - QB Zach Wilson, BYU
3. San Francisco 49ers - QB Mac Jones, Alabama
4. Atlanta Falcons - TE Kyle Pitts, Florida
5. Cincinnati Bengals - OT Penei Sewell, Oregon
6. Miami Dolphins - WR DeVonta Smith, Alabama
7. Detroit Lions - WR Ja'Marr Chase, LSU
8. Carolina Panthers - CB Patrick Surtain, Alabama
9. Denver Broncos - QB Trey Lance, North Dakota State
10. Dallas Cowboys - LB Micah Parsons, Penn State
11. New York Giants - WR Jaylen Waddle, Alabama
12. Philadelphia Eagles - CB Jaycee Horn, South Carolina
13. Los Angeles Chargers - OT Christian Darrisaw, Virginia Tech
14. Minnesota Vikings - DE Jaelan Phillips, Miami
15. New England Patriots - QB Justin Fields, Ohio State
16. Arizona Cardinals - RB Travis Etienne, Clemson
17. Las Vegas Raiders - DL Gregory Rousseau, Miami
18. Miami Dolphins - RB Najee Harris, Alabama
19. Washington Football Team - OT Alex Leatherwood, Alabama
20. Chicago Bears - OL Rashawn Slater, Northwestern
21. Indianapolis Colts - OL Alijah Vera-Tucker, USC
22. Tennessee Titans - WR Rashod Bateman, Minnesota
23. New York Jets - DE Kwity Pae, Michigan
24. Pittsburgh Steelers - LB Zaven Collins, Tulsa
25. Jacksonville Jaguars - LB Azeez Ojulari, Georgia
26. Cleveland Browns - LB Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Notre Dame
27. Baltimore Ravens - DE Boogie Basham, Wake Forest
28. New Orleans Saints - CB Greg Newsome, Northwestern
29. Green Bay Packers - WR Kadarius Toney, Florida
30. Buffalo Bills - DT Levi Onwuzurike, Washington
31. Baltimore Ravens - OT Teven Jenkins, Oklahoma State
32. Tampa Bay Buccaneers - DT Christian Barmore, Alabama

You think Atlanta goes Pitts with Julio Jones on the trading block? Is that the guy in this draft to start the rebuild? Will Jones be traded? Could the Dolphins find a way to restructure to get him here? No?

Well shit.

Degarmo wrote:You think Atlanta goes Pitts with Julio Jones on the trading block?  Is that the guy in this draft to start the rebuild?  Will Jones be traded?  Could the Dolphins find a way to restructure to get him here?  No?

Well shit.

I don't think Jones has anything to do with it...and I also don't think any team is trading for a 32 year old receiver with a huge pricetag coming off an injury-plagued season.

My thinking on Atlanta taking Pitts is this: they need to go all in on Matt Ryan because of the money they're paying him, and Matt Ryan LOVES to throw to the TE. And right now, the Falcons' #1 TE is Hayden Hurst, who was a first round bust for the Ravens and moved on to Atlanta where he was slightly less underwhelming - but still underwhelming. Pitts would thrive in that Atlanta offense - I think he's an ideal fit there. Seems like a no-brainer to me.

I can see the Falcs going for Pitts, but with Lance and Fields on the board, I think they will attempt to trade down. Whether anyone WANTS to trade up is going to be the big question.

If it was me, I would trade down for more draft picks, even if I have to throw out that totally arbitrary and subjective Draft Pick Formula JJ made up.

The sweet spot in this draft (just like most of them) is the late 1st and top of the 2nd where you can get players with 1st round grades,
for not 1st round money.

Move down and get that Defense some help.

For the Phins, they have to get some IMPACT players on the team THIS YEAR. Going from 5-11 to 10-6 is one thing, but going from 10-6 to 12-5 or 13-4 next season is going to be MAJORLY DIFFICULT without some certifiable impact players.

No more blue collar, hard hat, lunch pail guys for the Phins. Go out and get some DIFFERENCE MAKERS!!

Note: I heard some of the draft-nosticators talking and one said if the Phins got Pitts, that would be a huge difference for Tua. And one of the other guys said "Yeah, Belichick and the Bills are all hoping the Phins do not get Pitts!"

THAT is the type of difference-making players the Phins need. Someone the rest off the AFC East HOPES you do not draft. And then has top gameplay to try and stop.

finfanatic wrote:

For the Phins, they have to get some IMPACT players on the team THIS YEAR. Going from 5-11 to 10-6 is one thing, but going from 10-6 to 12-5 or 13-4 next season is going to be MAJORLY DIFFICULT without some certifiable impact players.

No more blue collar, hard hat, lunch pail guys for the Phins. Go out and get some DIFFERENCE MAKERS!!

Yep, it is very difficult to go from "good" to "great" in this league. Impact players and difference makers are the key to getting to that next level - just ask the Bills, who went from mediocre to great overnight by adding Diggs. (It also helped that Josh Allen had 20 dropped INTs, but that's another story...)

ok, let me get this out of the way: my annual gripe... remember when the draft was on Saturday and we could all waste an entire day in front of the TV drinking beer?

i woke up with morning with a terrible thought and i am now going to write it out for all to see hopefully increasing the likelihood it will not, can not happen. what if the SF trading up to get a QB is all a BS smokescreen. what if Shanahan decided that Pitts is truly the most talented player other than say Lawrence. i mean think about - knowing that QB's will go 1 & 2, did they really just trade away their future to get the 3rd best QB? imagine what Shanahan could do with Kittle and Pitts along with Aiyuk and Deebo outside. Garappolo wouldn't look that bad then.

Of course then Atlanta would take Chase as an eventual replacement for Jones - or would they keep that Bama WR pipeline going and take Smith? Would Cincinnati take whoever was leftover between those two?

So this would be my nightmare scenario case it would mean by sitting at 6, Miami would lose out on the top 3 offensive difference makers. It can't happen, right?

mercury22nathan wrote:ok, let me get this out of the way:  my annual gripe...  remember when the draft was on Saturday and we could all waste an entire day in front of the TV drinking beer?

I am still bitter about the draft change. My friends and I would hang out at my house every year for the Saturday draft. It was the best day of the year...12+ hours of drinking, eating and football talk. Heaven. Now, I sit in my basement by myself, trying not to get too wasted or stay up too late because I have work the next day.

At least I get to hang with you guys on the board - that helps.

BTW - ABC is showing the draft this year, I assume with the ESPN coverage. I think that's the first time it's been on network TV. I'll still be watching NFLN exclusively, as always.

mercury22nathan wrote:

i woke up with morning with a terrible thought and i am now going to write it out for all to see hopefully increasing the likelihood it will not, can not happen.  what if the SF trading up to get a QB is all a BS smokescreen.  what if Shanahan decided that Pitts is truly the most talented player other than say Lawrence.  i mean think about - knowing that QB's will go 1 & 2, did they really just trade away their future to get the 3rd best QB?  imagine what Shanahan could do with Kittle and Pitts along with Aiyuk and Deebo outside.  Garappolo wouldn't look that bad then.

Of course then Atlanta would take Chase as an eventual replacement for Jones - or would they keep that Bama WR pipeline going and take Smith?  Would Cincinnati take whoever was leftover between those two?

So this would be my nightmare scenario case it would mean by sitting at 6, Miami would lose out on the top 3 offensive difference makers.  It can't happen, right?

It can happen, but it won't happen. But in that scenario, a trade down for a huge draft haul becomes highly likely for the Phins, because teams below us will be scrambling to get the QBs. I'd readjust the plan - get as many picks as possible (this year and next) and focus on the next tier of impact players.

Maybe it's just me, but I actually like the change after not being a fan at first. Maybe all the Fins' bad drafts had something to do with it, but watching an entire day of it on Saturday was excruciating for me. I never could make it all the way through, especially seeing team after team select the guys I wanted. 12-plus hours straight was just too much.

Aso, I can't help but think that this "first time on network TV" thing is just another chance for more political statements and social brainwashing to be done. After last year I won't be watching it on TV anymore, period. And I don't even need to.