Game thoughts: week 15 Jets at Dolphins

Quick hits since I'm exhausted...

Ugly win, but they all count and I'll take it.  6 wins in a row and still alive!

A tale of two halves, as the defense came out flat and allowed the lowly Jets to take a 17-10 halftime lead. But the D pitched a shutout in the second half, holding the Jets to less than 50 yards and pounding rookie QB Zach Wilson. An absolutely dominating performance by the DL, with Zach Sieler and Emmanuel Ogbah leading the way. AVG, Jerome Baker and Brandon Jones all had big games.

Despite scoring 31 points, the offense struggled all day in the passing game. Tua played one of his worst games, wildly erratic and throwing a horrific pick 6 late in the game, allowing the Jets to tie it up despite doing nothing offensively. Fortunately, the run game was outstanding.  Led by a 100 yard effort from Duke Johnson, Miami had close to 200 yards on the ground. Duke was unstoppable,  breaking tackles and punishing defenders. He could be a key piece moving forward.

The OL was poor in pass pro, but did a solid job run blocking.

Christian Wilkins caught a TD,  leaped into the crowd, and followed up with a very nice endzone worm!  That guy is awesome!

Not the easy win I hoped for, but the team showed heart and lived to fight another day!

Hero of the Game: Duke Johnson, for bringing life to a running game that was non-existent all season.

Goat of the Game: Tua. An ugly game, complete crap performance.  He needs to get his act together as we head into 3 difficult must-win games.

YESS!!! JMP DRAGS HIMSELF FROM THE BRINK OF DEATH TO POST THE GAME THOUGHTS!!! THE HEART!!! THE GUTS!!! THE SHEER TESTICULAR FORTITUDE!!! THE BAR FOR HEROISM HAS JUST BEEN RAISED!!!

You cannot get more ironic than this team having a season-best rushing performance after it seemed like they'd literally have no RBs available to even take the field

It actually makes Grier look even WORSE that all of his picks and FA signings there look like amateurs compared to a couple of journeymen signed off the street in desperation. Remember, Lindsey was also looking like the best RB by far until he got put on the shelf. Now I think RB is an absolute must-draft with this team's third pick and maybe even their second depending on who they sign in FA on the O-line.

I'd still make Treylon Burks the first pick if he's there though. It's an absolute perfect fit.

JMP wrote:Goat of the Game: Tua. An ugly game, complete crap performance.  He needs to get his act together as we head into 3 difficult must-win games.

It truly is frightening to realize how helpless Tua is without Waddle, and even more horrifying to think that Grier and Flores might decide to make the Watson trade after all based on this one game

But I'm still on board the Tua Train and with Waddle back he will be a lot better

BTW...the guy is always hurt, but when DeVante Parker plays he is a playmaker. Dude came up big today, and he really makes this offense so much better.

JMP wrote:BTW...the guy is always hurt, but when DeVante Parker plays he is a playmaker.  Dude came up big today, and he really makes this offense so much better.

God help us if Parker and Waddle ever miss a game at the same time This is why Burks is my must-get in the draft.

Here are some interesting notes from the game recap.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/recap?gameId=401326541

New York had a halftime lead for the first time all season, yet couldn't finish things off.

So when you guys were freaking out in the game thread, you actually had a reason to (for once ).

The Dolphins became the second team in NFL history to get to 7-7 after starting a season 1-7. The other team on that list — the Jets, in 1974. The season was only 14 weeks back then, so that's where the Jets' turnaround ended and did so without a playoff berth.

As a NFL historian I've known this for years, but never brought it up because the Jets were involved. But it does show that making the playoffs in a 17-game season absolutely can be done even with a 1-7 start. (BTW that same season the Pats finished 7-7 after starting 6-1. I cannot make this stuff up.)

Miami swept the Jets for the second consecutive season, the first time that has happened since 1996 and 1997. The Dolphins have won eight of the last nine meetings with the Jets; the last 8-1 run by Miami in the series was from 1982 through 1985, including a victory in the AFC championship game on Jan. 23, 1983.

HOLY GUACAMOLE even *I* had no idea it had been THAT long since this team had that much sustained success against the Jets But in hindsight I'm not surprised. I will also say that Flores would--and should--be 6-0 VS the Jets now except for that ridiculous, preposterous and downright ludicrous PI call in '19. I'm sure at least some of you remember

My thought on the the Dolphins. 2 thumbs up for the Duke. One thumb down for Tua.

Tua still hasn't won me over. He looks like he can be a good system QB in the right system. He doesn't look like he can succeed unless he's playing bad competition or he has a better team around him. That sums up 85% of NFL QB's.

Miami still looks like a bad to mediocre team. I can't watch Miami and say we look like a playoff team. That's also 80% of nfl teams right now.

Hopefully we get Waddle back for next weeks game. He was missed today.

All I know is, there's only one team currently on a longer win streak than this one (KC).

If the Fins don't belong in the playoffs then who does? All those slots have to be filled by *somebody*. Can anybody honestly tell me there are seven other AFC teams who deserve to be in the playoffs more right now? The only AFC teams who are definitely superior are the Bills, Chiefs and Colts. We'll find out soon enough about the Titans, and this team's already beaten the Pats and Ravens. IMO if they played the Raiders next week they'd beat them too. None of the other 6-7 loss teams seem better to me.

Also, do you really think the Saints will beat this team by scoring only 9 points, even if Tua has another bad game? And it was *only* bad, not horrible. Basically your average Brissett performance. Tua's passer rating for this game was 75.5, Brissett's passer rating for the season is 78.1. Not defending it, just saying maybe we should save the despair and hand-wringing for a game that's actually a loss.

DolFan 316 wrote:All I know is, there's only one team currently on a longer win streak than this one (KC).

If the Fins don't belong in the playoffs then who does? All those slots have to be filled by *somebody*. Can anybody honestly tell me there are seven other AFC teams who deserve to be in the playoffs more right now? The only AFC teams who are definitely superior are the Bills, Chiefs and Colts. We'll find out soon enough about the Titans, and this team's already beaten the Pats and Ravens. IMO if they played the Raiders next week they'd beat them too. None of the other 6-7 loss teams seem better to me.

Also, do you really think the Saints will beat this team by scoring only 9 points, even if Tua has another bad game? And it was *only* bad, not horrible. Basically your average Brissett performance. Tua's passer rating for this game was 75.5, Brissett's passer rating for the season is 78.1. Not defending it, just saying maybe we should save the despair and hand-wringing for a game that's actually a loss.

This year nobody really seems to be separating themselves from anyone else. Greenbay might be the team to beat. AFC is a dumpster fire.

believe it or not, but 4 out of 5 of Miami's OL wasn't horrible. they weren't great (or even that good), but they weren't atrocious. well, except for one...

Player Pass-blocking snaps Beaten by defender Pressures allowed
Austin Jackson 31 0 0
Robert Hunt 31 0 0
Liam Eichenberg 31 0 1
Michael Deiter 31 1 1
Jesse Davis 31 3 2

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-week-15-game-recap-miami-dolphins-31-new-york-jets-24

remind me again why Jesse Davis HAS to be on the field again?

mercury22nathan wrote:remind me again why Jesse Davis HAS to be on the field again?

Something something Hunt could be a Pro Bowl guard something something. That's how I remember it, anyway.

Davis CANNOT be on this team next season. he does have one year left on his contract, but it'll save the Fins over $2.6 mil to ditch him before June 1 next year.

https://overthecap.com/player/jesse-davis/4512/

Jackson *should* be gotten rid of as well, but if he stays he cannot be a starter. Hunt could be moved back to RT if need be. I wouldn't make the first pick an O-lineman (that should be reserved for Treylon Burks) but the second pick probably should, it all depends on who they sign in FA and how many.

Then again if Grier's doing the signing and he drafting it'll make no difference who he gets since it never has before

Had to work but got the watch the game and enjoy the W. After work had to go up to The Rock to suffer through another miserable Devil's game.

I woke up this morning thinking how strange it was that the Dolphins and Bucs both played division rivals at home, and Tua had his worst game and the Dolphin offense scored 31 points, and Brady had his worst game and the Buc offense scored 0 points! Wacky day in the NFL yesterday for sure!

The wheels wobbled for sure but managed to stay on the playoff wagon against the much-trodden-upon Jets.

Fear not all those whom look upon the Phins still alive for a playoff spot with much despair; the Saints beckon!!

And if the level of play is anything like the level of play the Phins showed for the Jets; Brady will not be the only QB who has a bad game against the Saint D!!!

I am predicting the wobbly, near-broken, mis-aligned wheels on the Phins Playoff wagon come fully OFF against the Saints, and the shaky wagon bursts into flame and after the inferno, nary a cinder is left!

Duke Johnson looked quick and nimble out there. O-line was actually getting second level blocks!! Let's hope Flores learned his lesson; the defense when they put pressure on the QB is good, and when they do not, they sucketh greatly!!!

At this point, I still say the Phins need to get rid of Grier and Flores. I have seen enough to say the Phins will ALWAYS be kinda-sorta-half-arsed with this braintrust running things.

I don't want to see Brissett on the field. I'm so tired of the team taking Tua off the field on 3rd and one. Anyone notice the back to back runs by Tua after he was put back on the field?

Tua Played Bad, But I Like the Way he shook Off the Pick 6 and Threw a TD Pass the Next Possession, Plus seeing Him Flex after Running the Safety Over was Funny.

Tua Played Bad, But I Like the Way he shook Off the Pick 6 and Threw a TD Pass the Next Possession, Plus seeing Him Flex after Running the Safety Over was Funny.

Tua will be just fine as our starting QB for the foreseeable future, IMO. As you pointed out, he started poorly but bad plays do not "stick" with him. He is just as likely to fire a 35 yard completion after an INT than after 5 consecutive completions. He's got the quick release, plenty of arm to be capable and has both elite accuracy and elite leadership skills and character. That is more than enough successful attributes to work with and win.

Conversely, one thing I remember clearly about Tannehill is his tendency to tank after a poor start. I think this happened to him again in the last few weeks where he had a four INT game. Exactly the opposite of what you want in your starting QB.

At this point, I still say the Phins need to get rid of Grier and Flores. I have seen enough to say the Phins will ALWAYS be kinda-sorta-half-arsed with this braintrust running things.

Certainly you have a valid point and it's worth digging into further.

First and foremost, after this winning streak I do not believe Ross will make any changes and this front office will at least be in power for the 2022 season. Pending that outcome, changes maybe come later. Stability can be good, and I can't totally argue over the line of thinking to maintain some stability and try and fully entrench the current vision for the team.

There are some positives to build on. We have an excellent defense and they are probably a pass rusher and/or elite linebacker away from being a very, very good unit. The secondary is excellent and both starting safeties are starting to shine. Corner is also a real strength, and the defensive line is coming along very nicely.

On offense.... outside of Tua and Waddle there is very, very little to build on. With an offense struggling to find reliable playmakers, this front office SHOULD sign Gesicki to at least a 3 or 4 year deal. Give him another shot at FA and do a shorter term deal which should make him easier to sign. Will they? This team has been very stubborn on avoiding payments to players that aren't the perfect version of what they want. While long term that is an admirable approach, all too often they have failed to bring in talent to replace what they dump as "not perfect". In fact, that may be their undoing.

Here are the red flags that SHOULD prompt Ross to think again when his instincts tell him to go for stability:

The offensive line continues to be a disaster. Not average, not below average, an absolutely unmitigated DISASTER. Tons and tons of resources dedicated and the results are terrible. It begs digging into the core question, will this front office and regime EVER get it right, when they have tried so hard and failed? Also, is it the players or the constant changeover of schemes and coaching staffs which brings us to...

The coaching churn on offense has crippled the development and advancement of that unit. Every training camp has started with a fresh install of a new scheme. This cannot continue. What Flores does (or doesn't do) on his offensive staff following this season is going to be very telling, and an interesting sign.

This regime far too often signs injury-prone players, somehow believing that past injuries are no predictor of the ability to stay on the field. You could argue they overlooked that with Tua as well, and he has already missed games due to injury which has definitely hurt the team. This problem is most clear with our receiver unit, with several starting caliber players that simply cannot stay healthy. Again, this is really crippling the development of our passing game.

These three "red flags" really need to be thought about fully before deciding to stick with Grier and Flores, however I think Ross has already made the calculation based on the recent wins. But failure to build an effective offensive line, failure to install a stable offense and scheme that can be developed year over year, and the failure to acquire enough reliable talent on offense may doom this regime.

mercury22nathan wrote:believe it or not, but 4 out of 5 of Miami's OL wasn't horrible.  they weren't great (or even that good), but they weren't atrocious.  well, except for one...

Player Pass-blocking snaps Beaten by defender Pressures allowed
Austin Jackson               31                   0                         0
Robert Hunt                   31                   0                         0
Liam Eichenberg             31                   0                         1
Michael Deiter                31                   1                         1
Jesse Davis                    31                   3                         2

https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-week-15-game-recap-miami-dolphins-31-new-york-jets-24

remind me again why Jesse Davis HAS to be on the field again?

Davis clearly has to be replaced. The others are young with potential to improve. Davis is what he is at this point.

OT (or OG, see below) right up there among the biggest priorities next offseason if not THE biggest. I agree that Burks would fit perfectly here though as a potential first pick.

Re: Jackson. Yes, as a # 18 overall pick he's a disappointment. But, disregarding that, big picture: his rookie contract for 2-3 more years as a competent LG would be a decent allocation of resources. He appears to be improving at G. Hunt appears capable of playing either RG or RT effectively.

It’s a good point Hal the line definitely some some decent pieces and parts. Some the problem is certainly the constant coaching churn it’s hard for us to tell as fans what is what

PFF has the Fins selecting...Bernhard Raimann with their first pick. To be fair, they've got Burks going at 13 so he theoretically isn't available.

https://www.pff.com/news/draft-2022-nfl-mock-draft-oregon-kayvon-thibodeaux-detroit-lions-kenny-pickett-pittsburgh-panthers-denver-broncos-quarterback

21. MIAMI DOLPHINS (VIA SF): OT BERNHARD RAIMANN, CENTRAL MICHIGAN
Record: 8-6
Strength of Schedule: .491

I was very impressed with Rainmann’s tape. Yes, he obviously isn’t playing top-of-the-line college football competition at Central Michigan, but he moves really well for an offensive tackle, and when you learn about his background, it makes sense.

Raimann was born in Austria and only started playing football when he came to America on an exchange program. He initially played wide receiver and tight end before packing on some pounds at Central Michigan to transition to offensive tackle. He’s still relatively green to the game but shows a good understanding and already good consistency with blocks in space and when left one-on-one. Miami has to prioritize the offensive line in this draft.

And to this I say...NO!!! A THOUSAND TIMES NO!!! NO MORE PROJECT PLAYERS IN THE FIRST ROUND, PERIOD!!! HAS NOBODY LEARNED A THING FROM THE IGGY DISASTER?!?!      

And to top it off, they've got the Pats taking Max Mitchell at 29. Read his description. Doesn't he seem like a better pick than Raimann?

29. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS: OT MAX MITCHELL, LOUISIANA
Record: 9-5
Strength of Schedule: .468

Mitchell moves really well for a player of his size. At 6-foot-6, 300 pounds, his flexibility and movement skills are a plus. He can really sink his hips with a good base and is also fluid with flipping his hips. He's been a starter for ULL since his true sophomore season. He's a small-school player who I believe is ready for the next level of competition and would be a welcomed addition to the Pats' offensive line.

Yup, let's go with the project player who switched positions in college (why does that seem so disturbingly familiar) over the guy at the same position who's been starting at that position for three years AND is a former teammate of a player we already have at that same position group!

(Facepalms.)

Hell, if you're that determined to go O-line with the first pick you might as well just take Trevor Penning who IMO is better than both of them.

Excellent analysis W1.

I agree, Ross is gonna stick with Grier and Flores.

I think the MAIN POINT, which is probably a confluence of your three red flags and other boo boos by Flores and staff is this: The team cannot win games early in the season and that failure early dooms the playoff push at the end of the season!!

If the Coach and staff are only good in the middle and end of the season, that ain't good enough!

For this reason alone, they got to go IMHO.

They won't but they should.

I'd hire Byron Leftwich I think? And bring in a top DC. Maybe bring Flores in as C-HC and let be DC?



We can but dream I guess.

There is a real possibility that Nagy gets fired as head coach of the Bears.

As much as the constant churn on offense is a problem, he would be an excellent candidate to be our OC. 3 years as QB coach, 2 years as OC and now 3 years as a head coach, while still young he is creative and has a great resume. His leadership is also reported to be top-notch. Finally, Nagy is also very well versed in the RPO and uses those concepts in his offense quite heavily.

Sounds to me like a great fit and definite upgrade over co-coords Godsey and Studesville. One (or both) likely get fired if we hire Nagy, but Nagy could be a long-term answer as OC for Flores...