Re: Ridiculously too early Dolphins-Chiefs in Germany thread

[JMP]

Sucks that Hunt is out. But it sounds like we will have Williams and Armstead!

[mercury22nathan]

so the headline loudly proclaimed, "How the Chiefs plan to stop Tyreek Hill and Dolphins offense" and me (the sucker) clicked on the local KC FOX4 link expecting it to reveal some secret sinister plan to derail Miami's prolific passing game.

https://fox4kc.com/sports/chiefs/how-the-chiefs-plan-to-stop-tyreek-hill-and-dolphins-offense/

not so much.

Steve Spagnuolo said Thursday.

“This team has a lot of play-action rhythm passing. Everybody up front has to at least respect that it could be a run, and then, boom, all of a sudden it’s a pass play and he’s getting the ball out really quick. That’s what he’s really good at. I think that’s one of the main reasons for the success and the high percentage completion rate.”

Safety Justin Reid expressed the need to be physical with the Dolphins’ speed at receiver to keep them contained.

“I think it’s important to be physical when you can,” Reid said on Thursday. “When you have an opportunity to take a shot on them legally, you wanna take every one of those. Don’t let them just slide down or run out of bounds if you don’t have to let them. Make sure you put them on the ground.”

Reid made an interesting point when he explained that stopping Miami’s rushing attack would stall Hill’s effect on the game.

“Stopping the run puts you in a situation that you can make coverage calls that allow you to have extra coverage on him,” he said. “If you don’t stop the run and they’re running the ball down your throat all day, you have to load the box and at that point, you get one-on-one coverage on the outside which is where Tyreek takes over and he starts getting all these bombs over Baghdad big throws.”

“We’ve got to play it honest, stop the run first, hopefully get them in longer down-and-distances, so we know what they’re going to do, then try to disrupt them,” Spagnuolo said.

so that's a lot of words to say the old cliched, "stop the run and hit the receivers hard." nice plan.

the good news is...

The Chiefs’ run defense has been the Achilles heel of its mighty unit. They are giving up almost five yards a carry and have given more than 100 rushing yards in every game except against the Jacksonville Jaguars and Minnesota Vikings.

question. without Hunt (power in the gut) and the Achane spark (speed on the perimeter), do either Mostert or Hill get over a 100 yards in this game?

[finfanatic]

question. without Hunt (power in the gut) and the Achane spark (speed on the perimeter), do either Mostert or Hill get over a 100 yards in this game?

I say no, but they don't have to set records rushing the ball. All the Phins have to do is be able to run the ball all game long. Meaning, not fall way behind where McD will abandon the run. The run for the Phins sets up the offense and if the Phins are forced to become pass only, they will lose the game IMO.

They need the run game to be about like the Pats game... not really great, but nothing to sneeze at either... just enough so the opposing defense has to respect it...just keep plugging away at the run and mixing it up nicely where the play action fake actually WORKS, and creates space along the seams for Tua to get the ball in to Hill, Waddle and the rest...by forcing the LB to look out for the run first, then have to drop back.

Now don't get me wrong, I would love to see those outside zone runs work perfectly and both Mostert and Wilson tear the Chiefs a new one, but....That seems like a fairly tall order IMO. I'd really like to see the game come down to the Phins having to "run" their four minute offense to salt away the game. That would mean the McD offense was working like it is supposed to.

I really do think the game is going to come down to how well or poorly the Phins can keep Chris Jones and the Chiefs D-line from all-out crashing the gaps and destroying the Phins timing offense. When a Defense can do that, the offense struggles mightily.

[DolFan 316]

Meh. Feh. Bleh. Run D is still irrelevant in today's NFL. The Bills are harking up over 5 yards a carry, and Achane hit them up for 101 on just 8 totes. How'd that game work out?

This will be a repeat of the Eagles game almost exactly. Maybe even the same score. The O-line will once again get mauled, massacred and mutilated, and the NFL will do everything short of clonking Fins' players over the head with a steel chair to make sure the Taylor Swifts win. Anybody who sacrifices their Sunday morning to watch this is a masochist. Yes, that includes Chiefs fans. I can't imagine being a fan of that team right now knowing that any objection to Ms. Swift hijacking them will result in getting banned and cancelled from the group 2020s style.

If only Grier hadn't kept dicking around and actually bothered drafting or signing a true center, or hadn't done that ridiculous draft tradeup for Eichenberg when he could've had Creed Humphrey 21 picks later instead. (Sighs.)

[JMP]

question.  without Hunt (power in the gut) and the Achane spark (speed on the perimeter), do either Mostert or Hill get over a 100 yards in this game?

I think Mostert tops 100, and the Phins as a team rush for over 120 yards.

But as 316 says, the rushing yardage isn't all that important in the end. We're going to win or lose this game on the arms of Tua and Mahomes - whichever QB has the better day will be the winner IMO.

[DolFan 316]

The true major difference between the Chiefs and Fins? It's not at QB. It's the O-line. I've talked about Approximate Value before, but last season the Chiefs had twice as many players with a double digit AV as the Fins (Tua, Hill and Waddle). Three of those players were O-linemen. All five of their starters played at least 15 games, and three of them started every game. Their O-lineman with the lowest AV (Andrew Wylie) still was just as high as Hunt and Williams (AV and just a hair behind Armstead (AV 9). They didn't consider him Chiefs good, so they let him walk. He might've been the best O-lineman on this team right now. This season every member of their starting O-line has played every game so far. It really is a night and day difference from Grier's approach to roster building.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/kan/2022_roster.htm

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/kan/2023_roster.htm

[DolFan 316]

Also, Chris Jones is who Wilkins wants to be when his balls drop.

[JMP]

The true major difference between the Chiefs and Fins? It's not at QB. It's the O-line. I've talked about Approximate Value before, but last season the Chiefs had twice as many players with a double digit AV as the Fins (Tua, Hill and Waddle). Three of those players were O-linemen. All five of their starters played at least 15 games, and three of them started every game. Their O-lineman with the lowest AV (Andrew Wylie) still was just as high as Hunt and Williams (AV and just a hair behind Armstead (AV 9). They didn't consider him Chiefs good, so they let him walk. He might've been the best O-lineman on this team right now. This season every member of their starting O-line has played every game so far. It really is a night and day difference from Grier's approach to roster building.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/kan/2022_roster.htm

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/kan/2023_roster.htm

I'm not sure the approach is really all that different. The Dolphins have invested heavily in the OL, with both draft picks and free agent signings. You can argue all day about the decisions on which linemen we could've/should've added, but the approach between the two teams has been the same: build the line through draft and free agency. The difference between the two teams is, the Chiefs OL has been great and before this season the Dolphins OL has been bad. That is changing this season, with the Dolphins OL looking borderline-fantastic most of the time - especially when healthy.

[JMP]

Thought this was interesting:

Chris Kouffman
@ckparrot

Patrick Mahomes led his KC offense into Vic Fangio's red zone 22 times during about 21 quarters of play while Vic was in Denver, but only walked away with 7 TDs. Mahomes amassed a 97 passer rating vs. Fangio's defenses, but his offenses only scored about 22.5 points per game.

4:22 PM · Nov 1, 2023

To add to that, this season KC scores red zone TDs less than 52% of the time, which is middle of the pack compared to the rest of the league. (For comparison, the Dolphins are #1 at just over 74%.)

Bend but don't break!

[DolFan 316]

I feel like a condemned man awaiting his execution who just wants the torture of the anticipation to be over with. I know it's silly, but I just haven't felt worse about a game in a long time, not even the Eagles. I've given up all pretense that this team can even compete with the good ones, let alone win.

FYI here is how the Fins have fared against playoff teams every season since the merger. The most games they've had against playoff teams in any season is 9, the most losses they've had is 7 ('91) with five other teams having 6, and they've failed to beat any playoff teams in a season just 3 times, including '07 and '11.

https://stathead.com/tiny/nMUep

The way I figure it, this team could have as many as 8 games VS playoff opponents. Bills twice, Eagles, Chiefs, Jets twice, Cowboys and Ravens. Yes, I'm including the Jets since they seem to be gaining steam and their D seems determined to drag Zach Wilson kicking and screaming to the postseason. The Fins have never played as many as 7 games VS playoff teams in a season without winning at least once, and they've only gone 0-6 once--during a 1-15 season. So something will have to give. Either they set a dubious franchise record (again) or they manage to rise up and actually beat at least one of these teams.

[finskev]

If Armstead Plays Tomorrow can Lamm move to Guard,No Idea if he has Played inside but at Least Cotton & Eck both won’t Start.

[JMP]

I'm the anti-316 here. The closer we get to kickoff, the more optimistic I feel. Our defense has all starters playing for the first time all season. Armstead is back. Williams is back. Mostert is playing. And oh yeah...the triumvirate of destruction (Tua, Reek, Waddle) is ready to lay waste to all in their path. We got this.

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