Week 9 Game Thoughts: Dolphins at Chiefs in Germany

JMP wrote:But I think we should be very concerned about the offense.  The Dolphins offense disappearing against good defenses (on the road especially) isn't a new thing.  It happened last season, and it's continued into this season.  If McD hasn't figured it out by now - and he clearly hasn't - how is he going to figure it out in-season?  Lack of communication, pre-snap penalties, poor OL play, inability to pick up blitzers, dropped passes, poor route-running, missing open receivers, throwing into coverage, bad snaps, questionable play-calling...whenever we face a good team, all we see is a laundry list of mistakes and an inability to score TDs.  And guess what?  We still have to play the Jets twice, the Cowboys, the Ravens (on the road), and the Bills.  That's 5 very good/great defenses - all of whom are tough, physical and mean and nasty, going up against our soft finesse offense.  Unless something drastically changes, it seems like a safe bet that the Miami offense is going to struggle in all of those games.  I'm not saying we can't win any of those games, but none of them will be easy.  

You're not fooling me again! The next time they face one of those teams you'll be saying how good you feel about the game and predicting a win again. And the time after that, and the time after THAT.

And that's fine. If anything it was my fault for trying to change who you are when a huge proponent of free will like me should know what a bad idea it is. You keep doing you. Seriously. I'd just love for you to be right one of these days, like the Bears game in '06 which I think I will remember all the way up until I experience physical death. I've actually been waiting to give you credit for being so right ever since.

DolFan 316 wrote:Merc's post is the exact same thing my second video was about, with the exact same quote by Clark. Great minds think alike

It just pisses me off that this type of stuff is always brought up with Tua - but where are the comments about Pat Mahomes, Justin Herbert and Josh Allen? In week 9, did any of those guys do what Clark said in that clip? I can very easily say: “When things weren't on time, when you couldn’t take the first read, when you could no longer take what the defense gave you because you had to go take something from the defense, Mahomes/Herbert/Allen could not do that.”

Basically, it's an argument that you can say about any QB that loses a game in which they struggle to score. But of course, when it happens to Tua it's because he sucks - and when it happens to another QB, no one says a word. Just more bullshit from the media.

DolFan 316 wrote:

You're not fooling me again! The next time they face one of those teams you'll be saying how good you feel about the game and predicting a win again. And the time after that, and the time after THAT.

And that's fine. If anything it was my fault for trying to change who you are when a huge proponent of free will like me should know what a bad idea it is. You keep doing you. Seriously. I'd just love for you to be right one of these days, like the Bears game in '06 which I think I will remember all the way up until I experience physical death. I've actually been waiting to give you credit for being so right ever since.

I call it like I see it, and will continue to do so. I thought the Dolphins would beat the Chiefs, and they almost did. I said in my prediction post that "I think it will be a close game, and lower-scoring than people expect. This is a matchup that could really go either way..." - and that's exactly how the game went. I was right about the Dolphins' defense, but wrong about the offense. Oh well - wasn't the first time I was wrong, and won't be the last. My thoughts have no bearing on the outcome either way.

Should we look at your prediction record for the season?

JMP wrote:I would argue that this isn't all on Tua.

and i would argue that your absolutely right. it is not all on Tua.

the Dolphins' passing offense is predicated on quickly putting the ball in spots. Tua is very often not waiting on the WR to get open, but is throwing the ball to a place where the WR is designed to get to. the determination to throw the ball is based on whether a defender has vacated that area. the Dolphins use the perimeter running game and motions to get those defenders out of those spots. but if the running game isn't working and disciplined defenses aren't biting on the motions, then Tua can't throw to his designed initial read. And if his o-line is not giving him time to progress to his 2nd read, then he should otherwise pull it down and take off or roll up and/or out of the pocket to buy time for an off schedule throw. and while that is not his fault, he's being forced into this position - it is part of football and something that is not necessarily his strength (he's very good to excellent in most things about being a QB, this just hasn't been one of them so far this year).

i think it also determines how defenses rush Tua. with guys like Allen, Jackson, Hurts and a healthy Mahomes, defenses have to maintain gap integrity in their rush lanes for fear of the QB taking off. the Dolphins have suffered this first hand with Allen and Hurts and even Mahomes dropped a 16 yard run on them. i don't think defense have to worry themselves with Tua taking off and so they can rush, blitz and stunt with little fear and this in turn puts even more pressure on the o-line and Tua himself. when was the last time we saw Tua perform a designed rollout? or even a non-designed rollout in response to pressure or a blitz? it's just not in his game (right now).

so again, hopefully over the bye week, the Phins will get some guys back healthy. and perhaps more importantly, McDaniel will make some adjustment and incorporate some new things to keep defenses honest. cause for now, to just keep doing the same things that aren't working against good defenses, just isn't gonna cut it as the schedule gets harder.

JMP wrote:And on that note, Waddle has been a colossal disappointment so far.  I expected him to have a huge season, and he just hasn't.  He drops way too many passes, and he's always battling some kind of injury.  When Tyreek gets shut down, Waddle is nowhere to be seen - and that's a big problem for this offense.

McDaniel addressed Waddle today...

McDaniel said receiver Jaylen Waddle, who played through a left knee injury Sunday, is “definitely sore. We will be measured with that. He did a great job battling for his teammates. There was competitiveness that really drove him.

“We gave him an end around on the fourth, fifth play of the game and he was making clear to me on the sidelines to still call that, that he wanted the ball. He’s in a good spot but will make sure we don’t do any harm to him moving forward. He’s had to battle injuries unfortunately all season. We will utilize this bye week to make sure he’s fully healthy.”

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/nfl/miami-dolphins/article281498948.html

i guess we can always keep our fingers crossed.

mercury22nathan wrote:
i think it also determines how defenses rush Tua.  with guys like Allen, Jackson, Hurts and a healthy Mahomes, defenses have to maintain gap integrity in their rush lanes for fear of the QB taking off.  the Dolphins have suffered this first hand with Allen and Hurts and even Mahomes dropped a 16 yard run on them.  i don't think defense have to worry themselves with Tua taking off and so they can rush, blitz and stunt with little fear and this in turn puts even more pressure on the o-line and Tua himself.  when was the last time we saw Tua perform a designed rollout?  or even a non-designed rollout in response to pressure or a blitz?  it's just not in his game (right now).

Absolutely. That obviously puts more pressure on the OL to do their job, and also requires receivers other than Hill to get to their spots on time. And of course Tua is a pure pocket passer, like Marino, Brady, Brees, etc. He's never going to be a QB that takes off and runs all over the field. He can and should run more than he has, when the opportunity presents itself, but he's just not that type of QB.

In the end, like you and FF are saying, this offense needs the run game to work in order for everything to fall perfectly into place. Aside from a few nice runs by Mostert, it didn't work at all on Sunday morning. Hopefully Hunt and Achane come back for the next game - and remain healthy moving forward.

I have a plan. STOP deferring the ball until the 2nd half. It seems like every week the other team goes down the field for 7 and we are behind. Then we get the ball after the half and have one good 1st down then 3 plays and punt.

I'm actually a big fan of deferring - I'd do it every time. Most games these days are won in the second half, and getting the ball first can be a big advantage. It doesn't always work, of course, but I think it makes sense.

If it worked I would be but it's not working for us.

JEGnj wrote:If it worked I would be but it's not working for us.

I think it's like anything else - sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't.

I think in the Chiefs game, deferring didn't matter one way or another. The Chiefs offense had one more good drive during the entire game, and scored just 14 points - including zero in the second half. The game was ours to take - we just didn't get the job done on offense. But our failures on offense - which is why we lost - had nothing to do with deferring on the opening kickoff.

I wanted to take a look at what ended up being probably the most critical play in the Dolphins loss to the Chiefs: the Tyreek Hill fumble returned for a TD.

First, let’s set the stage. The Dolphins had just given up a second TD to go down 14-0 and began the ensuing possession with a little over 2 minutes left. While things weren’t looking great, they were not hopeless. While the defense had given up 2 long TD drives, they had also stopped the Chief’s on 3 separate drives that ended in punts after minimal yardage. If the offense could get score before the half, things might not be so bad. And while Miami’s 4 previous offensive drives had all ended in punts, the Dolphins had moved the ball (perhaps somewhat inconsistently) but had been derailed by penalties. On Miami’s 2nd drive they actually would’ve had the ball all the way down to the KC 25 had it not be for a Cedrick Wilson illegal shift (he apparently did not get set “enough” after shifting before the snap – but I’ve seen worse not get called) penalty that wiped out a 17-yard completion to Waddle on 3rd and 10. And Miami started their 4th possession approaching midfield at their own 44, but a 10-yard intentional grounding call forced a 3rd and 20 with a subsequent 10-yard completion to Jeff Wilson only recouping half the yardage needed. (Side note: if anyone has a clip of the intentional grounding play, I’d love to see it again. If I recall, yes Tua was throwing the ball away under a heavy rush, but I thought a RB (Ahmed/Wilson) was somewhat in the area where the ball was directed.)

So the Chiefs hadn’t gone completely gangbusters on offense and Miami’s offense had self-inflicted a lot to stop themselves. And here were the Dolphins driving just before the half to bring the game within reach. First play – 9-yard Ahmed run to the left. Second play – 14-yards to Waddle in the middle. Two minute warning. Third play – short middle and Tyreek gains 19 yards. Hell yes! Fourth play – short 3-yarder to Smythe. Ok, Miami is moving the ball and are now faced with 2nd and 7 at the KC 30 with 47 seconds. Looks like they’re moving the ball, right. Miami’s gonna score, right.

To be continued…

And then this happened…

https://x.com/PFF/status/1721195021984989406?s=20

So let’s look at the play (and remember, Miami had already thrown a short pass to Hill on the left for no gain on their 1st drive that KC had smelled out). Tua starts in shotgun with 4 wides and a single back to his left. It’s a balanced formation with 2 wides and 2 slots on each side. KC responds with a dime package with 4 down linemen a single MLB and 3 DBs in tight press coverage (within 2 yards of LOS). Of the remaining 3 DBs, one is a safety in high coverage on the left and the second safety starts in middle coverage (but back peddles pre-snap to give a cover 2 look). The last DB is in off coverage against the right slot. So it looks like if any of the Dolphins receivers can beat the initial press coverage, there is gonna be some room in front of the safeties. As well, if Miami can get the ball into the hands of one of their speed guys on the perimeter and get all the tight DBs blocked, there will be some room before the safeties can get down (this is what they were hoping).

Note that the widest receiver on the left is actually TE Smythe with Hill inside him in the slot. In an above post, one of the KC DBs said they had seen this play on film and knew what was coming. I believe this may have been the tell. Smythe is not gonna run a speed deep route against high safety coverage. He might run an inside cross route, but from that far out wide, maybe? Why else would he be out there – to block, of course. And for what – a screen.

Tua motions Cedrick Wilson from the right slot. When he does that, the safety on the offense’s right backpedals into a 2 high shell and the DB in off coverage follows Wilson at a depth of 5 yards off the LOS. The snap comes just as Wilson clears the LT and Tua immediately sets up in a position the throw a quick screen to the left. The RB, Ahmed, fakes like receiving a handoff, but Tua does not offer a play action fake. I assume this is by design as he wants to get the ball into the screen quickly and a play action fake would slow that down. No matter as the MLB is effectively removed from the play as he shadows Ahmed trailing off to the right. As Tua turns to throw and once Wilson has cleared behind him eventually ending up outside him, Hill steps back 3 yards to receive the pass 5 yards behind the LOS. At the snap, Smythe on the outside takes 2 steps and is immediately engaged by the DB on tight coverage (I’m pretty sure there is no fear on the DB’s part that Smythe might beat him deep).

And this is where things get murky (without knowing the play design) and things fall apart. The DB covering Hill immediately attacks up field (ala Reddick from the Eagles game). Smythe breaks off from his DB and turns inside. It appears its his responsibility to pick up the DB that is attacking towards Hill, but he’s lined up on the yardline numbers and the DB starts inside near the hashmarks while Hill catches the pass inside the numbers. With a straight line between the DB and Hill, I have no idea how Smythe could be expected to get there for the block. The DB is already 4 yards deep behind the LOS and on top of Hill by the time he’s secured the pass. Did the Dolphins expect the DB to hesitate based on Wilson’s motion? Or perhaps take a more lateral path down the LOS? Was Hill supposed to catch the ball a bit wider (closer to the numbers) so as to allow Smythe a better blocking angle?

Wilson has now arrived at the numbers and picked up the DB that was in tight coverage on Smythe. Note he immediately sets up to block the DB with an outside angle seemingly expecting Hill to run up the outside. However, the DB that shadowed him in motion now seems to be perfectly positioned to stop an outside path by Hill. So this play doesn’t seem it was going to get many yards even if Smythe had been able to make his “apparent” blocking assignments. Unless, the idea was that the DB on Hill would hesitate or backpedal with Wilson’s motion overloading the left side. Perhaps Smythe was supposed to only block the DB covering him and only reacted towards the DB on Hill once he saw him crashing forward. And Wilson was going to block his shadowing DB downfield, but picked up the DB originally on Smythe when he saw Smythe come off him to go after the slot DB. Did maybe Wilson run his motion too wide and he was supposed to pick up the slot DB – and by not going so wide the DB shadowing him wouldn’t have been in that outside lane? I don’t think so as he ran behind Hill who was in the slot.

And the rest of the play was a disaster (and a lateral scramble drill – which the Chiefs apparently practice). I guess one could complain about Hill’s ball security, but the DB almost arrived at the same time as the ball and I’m just putting the fumble (not the idea behind the play) to bad luck. Pretty sure most of the time, Hill might get tackled, but holds onto that ball.

Again, without knowing the play design, there is no way to know for sure, but I believe the DB on Hill crashing wasn’t expected by Miami. Smythe and Wilson were to block the DBs covering them effectively giving Hill an outside lane. Having seen the play on tape before, the DB on Hill was coached to immediately attack Hill instead of flowing laterally as the Dolphins expected and Smythe tried to react. It really does look like the DB knows where the play is going as it takes him no time at all to react. I just can’t image that Smythe (or anyone) could’ve been expected to make a block on a DB in the slot moving immediately up field from his position out at the numbers.

FAULT: Good recognition and coaching by the Chiefs. This is probably a play that has worked against less disciplined defenses by forcing the slot DB to hesitate and not be in a position to make the play, but the Chiefs were prepared for it.

Excellent post, merc.

Yes, it was very apparent that Spagnulo had drilled his defense very thoroughly on what to expect from the Phins.

What I think was genius on his part:
a) he knew his Dline was going to dominate the Phins Oline
b) he had the talent and scheme to keep Hill from blazing down the field and catching bombs

With those two assumptions (facts), Spagnulo was able to implement the defensive scheme where with the pressure their Dline was applying, Tua had to dump the ball off. They could Ignore the motions and play for the quick pass. Their DBs were playing close, and with the intense pressure, Tua had to hold the ball and got sacked or threw it away before the defender got to him.

I agree that McD is going to have to make some changes, but what the changes are to cover up the poor play of the Oline, I do not know?

Wow, killer breakdown merc!

I hate those types of plays to begin with - too many moving parts, and too much has to go right for it to work. Hopefully it serves as a wake-up call to McD: don't run predictable plays against smart defenses in key situations. I'd also add that having Smythe as the only blocker on that play is not the best idea. I see other teams run that play with 2 or even 3 blockers - which makes more sense.

And yes, FF, Spags did a fantastic job of preparing his defense for that game. But even with that, we could have and should have won if not for sloppy play and avoidable mistakes. All that crap needs to be cleaned up ASAP. I don't know if they practice with crowd noise before road games, but if not they definitely should. Effective communication would clean up a lot of the sloppiness.

Speaking of that play, does anybody else here wonder why it was even ruled a fumble to begin with, or why the whistle never blew even though Tyreke's forward progress had CLEARLY been stopped (and he didn't even really have any to begin with) and had already been pushed back at least 3 steps before the ball came out? Because that's not supposed to be a fumble according to NFL rules.

The play still gets blown up regardless, but it didn't have to be the game-deciding TD. I'm just saying. It does look like the Chiefs do practice the lateral drill. #2 is begging for the ball right away but the defender thinks he's too close (and is initially bobbling the ball) so #6 (Bryan Cook) comes charging in and gets it instead.



BTW that's the most disgusting fumble return score by an opponent I can remember since the Sammie Smith moment VS the Chiefs in '91 that poor Killah Sith (remember him?) was actually in attendance for.

Yeah, I didn't really think it was a fumble - but what can you do? At this point, I just assume the refs are going to screw us once or twice a game and there's really nothing to do about it.

And yes, I remember Killah Sith! Wish he was still around here.

I have been away trying to recover from the Stupidest Play Call that made Me turn the game Off at 21-0 , When Hill Lined up behind or next to Smythe me being on My Couch knew what was getting ready to Happen so I'm not surprised that the Chiefs Knew. The Play has never really worked at All during the Whole Season they need to Mothball the Play. Then I see on the Last Drive of the Game Mostert rips off 25 & 19 yard Runs and the Ball is at the 30 with Two Timeouts and You throw 3 Straight Passes and the Fumble. Someone said we were 7-3 and we will be the Fins are Playing Great on there Home Turf. Interested to see how Tua & Gang Play on Black Friday against the Jets. Achane and Hunt should be back after the Bye and a Reporter said What I said about Lamm trying to Play Left Guard instead of just sitting on the Bench.

finskev wrote:I have been away trying to recover from the Stupidest Play Call that made Me turn the game Off at 21-0 , When Hill Lined up behind or next to Smythe me being on My Couch knew what was getting ready to Happen so I'm not surprised that the Chiefs Knew. The Play has never really worked at All during the Whole Season they need to Mothball the Play. Then I see on the Last Drive of the Game Mostert rips off 25 & 19 yard Runs and the Ball is at the 30 with Two Timeouts and You throw 3 Straight Passes and the Fumble. Someone said we were 7-3 and we will be the Fins are Playing Great on there Home Turf. Interested to see how Tua & Gang Play on Black Friday against the Jets. Achane and Hunt should be back after the Bye and a Reporter said What I said about Lamm trying to Play Left Guard instead of just sitting on the Bench.

Good stuff, kev.

I agree - let's bury that stupid screen pass and never see it again!

I'm hoping the Jets drop their next 2 (very possible - at Raiders and at Bills), and Saleh continues to start Zach Wilson. That would put them at 4-6 when we play them, with their season just about over and the locker room and fanbase ready to implode.

I am also curious about Lamm moving inside. I wonder if he can play guard? As they always say, get your 5 best linemen on the field - and with Wynn out, Lamm is definitely one of them.

just sharing for discussion...about the Dolphins performance against the Chiefs - not about the relative merits (or lack thereof) of PFF ratings.

https://sports.yahoo.com/dolphins-best-worst-pff-grades-170019596.html

i suspect the fact that Waddle is far and away not only the highest rated on offense, but on the entire team will get some pushback from JMP.

and i find the fact that Cotton was so highly rated a bit confusing especially considering...

Cotton permitted four pressures and a sack on Sunday.

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/nfl/miami-dolphins/article281498948.html

...but it appears to be based on Cotton's run blocking. wait a minute, the Phins run game wasn't very good and their 2 biggest runs at the end both went to the left side. so did Cotton get extra credit for blocking assignments that had nothing to do with the play?

wouldn't that be like giving Berrios (on the opposite side of the formation) credit for not running a route and the Tyreek fumble????

well, i think the defensive grades are clear enough.

JMP wrote:I'm hoping the Jets drop their next 2 (very possible - at Raiders and at Bills), and Saleh continues to start Zach Wilson. That would put them at 4-6 when we play them, with their season just about over and the locker room and fanbase ready to implode.

I'm all for them losing to the Raiders (not that this won't suddenly present a problem for the Fins with the New Raiders being 2-0 coming to town) but I've got to root for them to sweep the Bills. You wanna talk about a fanbase imploding if that happens?

Besides, history has shown for the last 45 years that when it comes to record it literally makes no difference as far as the Jets Vs the Fins is concerned. If anything the worse the Jets have been the BETTER they've played against this team! And being 4-6 hardly means a team's season is over, not with an extra game to work with and the Jags making the playoffs and winning a game after starting 2-7 just last season.

BTW speaking of the Jets did you know they've scored fewer points than the Panthers? The PANTHERS!!! And both teams have played 8 games!

mercury22nathan wrote:just sharing for discussion...about the Dolphins performance against the Chiefs - not about the relative merits (or lack thereof) of PFF ratings.

https://sports.yahoo.com/dolphins-best-worst-pff-grades-170019596.html

i suspect the fact that Waddle is far and away not only the highest rated on offense, but on the entire team will get some pushback from JMP.

and i find the fact that Cotton was so highly rated a bit confusing especially considering...

Cotton permitted four pressures and a sack on Sunday.

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/nfl/miami-dolphins/article281498948.html

...but it appears to be based on Cotton's run blocking.  wait a minute, the Phins run game wasn't very good and their 2 biggest runs at the end both went to the left side.  so did Cotton get extra credit for blocking assignments that had nothing to do with the play?

wouldn't that be like giving Berrios (on the opposite side of the formation) credit for not running a route and the Tyreek fumble????

well, i think the defensive grades are clear enough.

If 3 catches for 42 yards, with a 50% catch percentage and what I would call a drop, makes Waddle the highest-rated Dolphins player...than yeah, that tells you all you need to know about PFF's grading system. LOL I get that they're not considering stats in their ratings, but anyone that walked away from that game thinking Waddle was the best player on the field is objectively wrong.

As for Cotton, since he's been in the starting lineup, Tua has been running for his life. If that's not a reflection on Cotton's play, I don't know what to say.

DolFan 316 wrote:

JMP wrote:I'm hoping the Jets drop their next 2 (very possible - at Raiders and at Bills), and Saleh continues to start Zach Wilson. That would put them at 4-6 when we play them, with their season just about over and the locker room and fanbase ready to implode.

I'm all for them losing to the Raiders (not that this won't suddenly present a problem for the Fins with the New Raiders being 2-0 coming to town) but I've got to root for them to sweep the Bills. You wanna talk about a fanbase imploding if that happens?

Besides, history has shown for the last 45 years that when it comes to record it literally makes no difference as far as the Jets Vs the Fins is concerned. If anything the worse the Jets have been the BETTER they've played against this team! And being 4-6 hardly means a team's season is over, not with an extra game to work with and the Jags making the playoffs and winning a game after starting 2-7 just last season.

BTW speaking of the Jets did you know they've scored fewer points than the Panthers? The PANTHERS!!! And both teams have played 8 games!

Yeah, great point about the Jets beating the Bills. That would certainly help us win the division.

I selfishly just want the Jets to be dead and buried so the Aaron Rodgers-stealing-the-spotlight-and-undermining-his-teammates-at-every-single-opportunity bullshit hopefully stops. He's got to be the most "all about me" player in the league - I just wish he'd go away.

If the Jets fall to 4-6 and we beat them to get them to 4-7, they're done. 10 wins is going to be the threshold for even being in the playoff discussion in the AFC, and there's no chance the Jets will win their final 6 games. But yeah, in the grand scheme of things it probably is better for us if they beat the Bills. I just despise the Jets and want them to lose out.

Yes, the Jets offense is horrifically bad.
--Only 1 team has punted more (the Giants).
--They are #3 in sacks allowed.
--They are tied with the Giants for fewest passing TDs (just 5!!!), and are tied for third fewest rushing TDs with 3.
--They are last in passing yards and tied for last in first downs gained by reception.
--They have the third worst completion percentage.
--They are last in third-down conversion percentage at just 22.12%. The next closest team is the Browns, at 31.67%. The worst third-down conversion percentage of all time is 24% (49ers in 2005) - so the Jets are on their way to setting that record.

I could keep going, but you get the idea!

The Jets got a "turrible, turrible" Oline.

I think the only way the Jets will win is if the defense sets the Offense up with multiple short fields via turnovers. Or the Jets Special teams scores a few times.

finfanatic wrote:The Jets got a "turrible, turrible" Oline.

I think the only way the Jets will win is if the defense sets the Offense up with multiple short fields via turnovers. Or the Jets Special teams scores a few times.

Add in scoring on defense, and you just described the way the Jets have won their 4 games!  Seriously, that is literally the only way they can win a game.

The thing is, their defense is good enough to do just that - but obviously that is not a sustainable or consistent way to win, and unless they discover some sort of offense they won't come close to a winning season.

And in addition to their "turrible, turrible" Oline, the Jets have a turrible, turrible QB, a turrible, turrible receiving corps (minus G. Wilson), a turrible, turrible offensive coordinator, and a turrible, turrible head coach!

Those two games will be tough for the Dolphins because of the Jets defense, but there's really no way we should lose either game.

I'll be sitting there on Black Friday. We Damn well better win.