Worked It Out In My Head And...

by DolFan 316 Thu Nov 16, 2023 6:10 pm

IF the Fins can win the next five, there's a 95-100% chance they clinch the division with three games left. Seriously.

First of all, by doing this they eliminate the Jets since by definition they'd be sweeping them AND even if the Jets won every other game they'd still have 7 losses, while the absolute worst the Fins could possibly finish in that scenario is 11-6.

IF the Bills lose to the Jets on Sunday that gives them 6 losses, meaning that the only way the Fins could win the next 5 and NOT clinch the division would be if the Bills somehow won out AFTER losing to the Jets AND the Fins dropped the last 3. The chances of both those things happening is so infinitesimal as to not even be worth discussing. This also of course applies if the Bills lose to the Chiefs, or the Eagles, or the Cowboys, etc.

For the record I'm NOT convinced a 5-game winning streak is going to happen, I've just been seeing and hearing a lot of talk about it lately and got to thinking scratch

So in conclusion...GO JETS GO!!! cheers

by **JMP** Thu Nov 16, 2023 8:02 pm

Very cool!

I admit that a 5-game winning streak probably isn't likely, but it is certainly possible when you look at the competition. If the Phins can somehow pull that off...WOW!

But first things first...beat the Raiders!

by mercury22nathan Fri Nov 17, 2023 9:32 am

wow, i just can't think that far ahead - or take anything with these Phins for granted. take care of their own business despite what everybody else does and things will fall into place. one game at a time.

BEAT THE RAIDERS!

(although i did peek a little ahead and gave my wife the credit card and said, "Honey, go treat yourself. Whatever you want. Shop all day this Black Friday if you'd like." anything to get her out of the house. come 3:00 PM it'll be me, the dog, the fireplace, lots of beer, a load of nachos and the Miami Dolphins.)

by DolFan 316 Fri Nov 17, 2023 11:14 am

mercury22nathan wrote:wow, i just can't think that far ahead - or take anything with these Phins for granted. take care of their own business despite what everybody else does and things will fall into place. one game at a time.

BEAT THE RAIDERS!

Oh definitely. It's just that if they take care of their own business five times in a row they've all but got it made Cool

(although i did peek a little ahead and gave my wife the credit card and said, "Honey, go treat yourself. Whatever you want. Shop all day this Black Friday if you'd like." anything to get her out of the house. come 3:00 PM it'll be me, the dog, the fireplace, lots of beer, a load of nachos and the Miami Dolphins.)

I was in Wal Mart on a Black Friday once. ONCE. There were so many people I could literally barely move. The only reason I was even there at all is because somebody wanted to buy somebody else a TV, and I just happened to be with that somebody. Even getting in a line to check out seemed humanly impossible let alone actually making a purchase. As it turned out buying that TV was a complete waste of time and it's been stashed in the guest bedroom for years now. As someone who hates being in a crowd the experience was legit terrifying for me and I vowed to never again be in that situation. I think I still have PTSD affraid

by finfanatic Fri Nov 17, 2023 11:35 am

Edit to fix a major typo...

I hate commercials so I usually record the games and watch afterwards where I can FF thru the obscene levels of dumbness in today's commercials, but I may have to endure the Black Friday game's commercials.

I think we are seeing the Phins in a rising tide here, speaking seasonally I mean. First, they struggle to make the playoffs, and get beaten while putting up a good fight. Then the next rung on the ladder is becoming a stout playoff team and winning the division. Hopefully getting one playoff game at home and winning it. And then maybe having a great game versus the top seeds in the conference, but ultimately falling. The season after that, given a stable front office and coaching staff... the Phins should be ready to contend for conference champion.

Right now, this team is having some extreme problems playing good playoff caliber teams, but they have played them all on the road, and this offense seems to have a real problem performing efficiently on the road in hostile environments. That needs to be fixed (somehow) for the team to keep rising.

I had heard this or saw it here I think... but I looked it up here...

StatMuse Dolphins Home and Road Stats

Worked It Out In My Head And... Screen23

As you can see, the home team scores 43.5 and on the road the team scores 22.2.

The defense gives up 18.5 at home and 30.2 on the road.

Look at the 3rd down and 4th down percentages on the road and at home?!?! That's a huge difference...

Now the fact they have played the Chargers, the Bills, the Eagles, and the Chiefs (was that a road game for the Phins) on the road,
all teams with (at the time) good offenses may have something to do with it.

But this is the next hurdle, the next challenge this team must overcome to reach the next rung.

To finish the climb from full fledged rebuild to conference champion and then to reach the point where the Super Bowl is
well within reach... the Phins have to perform as well on the road as they do at home.

by **JMP** Fri Nov 17, 2023 2:15 pm

mercury22nathan wrote:me, the dog, the fireplace, lots of beer, a load of nachos and the Miami Dolphins.)

Worked It Out In My Head And... Perfection-patrick-stewart-star-trek-v8d6hdc5d0ncu38r

by **JMP** Fri Nov 17, 2023 2:23 pm

finfanatic wrote:Edit to fix a major typo...

I hate commercials so I usually record the games and watch afterwards where I can FF thru the obscene levels of dumbness in today's commercials, but I may have to endure the Black Friday game's commercials.

I think we are seeing the Phins in a rising tide here, speaking seasonally I mean. First, they struggle to make the playoffs, and get beaten while putting up a good fight. Then the next rung on the ladder is becoming a stout playoff team and winning the division. Hopefully getting one playoff game at home and winning it. And then maybe having a great game versus the top seeds in the conference, but ultimately falling. The season after that, given a stable front office and coaching staff... the Phins should be ready to contend for conference champion.

Right now, this team is having some extreme problems playing good playoff caliber teams, but they have played them all on the road, and this offense seems to have a real problem performing efficiently on the road in hostile environments. That needs to be fixed (somehow) for the team to keep rising.

I had heard this or saw it here I think... but I looked it up here...

StatMuse Dolphins Home and Road Stats

As you can see, the home team scores 43.5 and on the road the team scores 22.2.

The defense gives up 18.5 at home and 30.2 on the road.

Look at the 3rd down and 4th down percentages on the road and at home?!?! That's a huge difference...

Now the fact they have played the Chargers, the Bills, the Eagles, and the Chiefs (was that a road game for the Phins) on the road,
all teams with (at the time) good offenses may have something to do with it.

But this is the next hurdle, the next challenge this team must overcome to reach the next rung.

To finish the climb from full fledged rebuild to conference champion and then to reach the point where the Super Bowl is
well within reach... the Phins have to perform as well on the road as they do at home.

Those are some eye-opening stats!

To further push this point, I read that McD has lost at home just one time when Tua starts. And that one loss was the Packers game when Tua had a near-perfect first half and then got concussed and played like crap in the second half. So if we can get some home cookin' in the playoffs...we can make some noise.

But realistically, to be the best the Dolphins MUST learn to win in a hostile environment against good defenses. Fix the communication issues, fix the crazy playcalling, stop making stupid mistakes. The good news is, the team is getting healthier, and all the road issues are fixable.

The first big test comes on Black Friday, against an excellent Jets defense. If Tua and especially McD can find a way to not shit the bed and choke like dogs, that's a game we should absolutely win - and the environment doesn't get more hostile than that.

And then of course - New Year's Eve at Baltimore, in a COLOSSAL game that may be for all the AFC marbles. Lots of football to be played before then, but that's the one that will ultimately make us or break us.

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