Dolphins have one of the NFL's best defenses since week 5

We've come a long way since the Chargers embarrassed us on the ground in week 1.  This is really nothing short of amazing.  ALL HAIL FANGIO!!!

I'm SO glad someone else besides me finally noticed this!

Remember when people were calling Fangio a fraud and even wanting him fired after the opener? Good times

Unfortunately that damn Bills game is only just now starting to fade away and get them out of the bottom 5 in points allowed. The six non-offensive scores against them didn't help either. Take those away and they'd be 8th in points allowed instead of 23rd. Hell, take even 3 of those scores away and they'd be allowing slightly fewer points than the mighty Eagles!

Someone (I don't remember who) called it early on. Something to the effect of this: "Fangio's scheme is complicated, expect the full effect of his defense to take part in the second half of the season."

Ramsey coming back along with Howard is certainly a huge part of that, but I have read several anecdotes about players unsure of how/where/what to do within his extensive playbook. We're seeing it now.

BTW, anyone watch that dumpster fire last night? I had a couple fantasy players on the field. Flores called his zero blitz on 4th and 10, leaving a wide open Kmet who easily converted the first down. Granted he was changing it up all night, on a later 3rd and long he only rushed three and forced an incompletion to a tightly covered receiver. Still. I really hated that defense - especially with Boyer in charge...

Yep, the Fangio defense is kinda/sorta complex and it has taken some time to get it implemented correctly.

Two things are glaringly obvious it seems to me though:
ONE - The Ramsey effect - No doubt he is a big factor once he returned, but also, some ot he other players have really started to step up in the Fangio way it looks like also.
TWO - The D Line is actually getting pressure and stopping the run without too many blitzes thrown in! Wilkins has been playing well for a while but his last few games he has been a difference maker. As somebody said "Wilkins and Seiler may be the best pair of interior D linemen in the NFL!" Add in Chubb starting to get sacks.

Hopefully, Van Ginkel and Ogbah, along with Paul, can step in and keep the D line play going with Phillips out.

Early in the season it seemed like nobody knew what they were doing, and everyone was on a different page. Now, it seems like there is better communication and everyone understands their assignments. Ramsey is a HUGE difference, but in truth the D was starting to come on even before he came back - but he takes it all to another level.

There was an article that said Holland, Baker, Long and a few others took it upon themselves to talk and figure things out, and really open the lines of communication. I think that helped everyone take ownership and start working together as a unit.

and its a good thing the defense has stepped up because it seems the offense has taken a somewhat similar regression.  lets hope the second half of the Jets game is a harbinger of things to come.  the good news is that the offenses woes seem to be self inflicted pre-snap penalties that can be corrected (especially as more talented players return to the lineup), yet the most concerning is...

...Miami’s minus-5 turnover margin, led by quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s 10 interceptions, a number that already exceeds last year’s total (eight).

https://sports.yahoo.com/chris-perkins-dolphins-better-ago-103000928.html

if Miami gets that corrected - they are the BEST team in the league!

mercury22nathan wrote:and its a good thing the defense has stepped up because it seems the offense has taken a somewhat similar regression.  lets hope the second half of the Jets game is a harbinger of things to come.  the good news is that the offenses woes seem to be self inflicted pre-snap penalties that can be corrected (especially as more talented players return to the lineup), yet the most concerning is...

...Miami’s minus-5 turnover margin, led by quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s 10 interceptions, a number that already exceeds last year’s total (eight).

https://sports.yahoo.com/chris-perkins-dolphins-better-ago-103000928.html

if Miami gets that corrected - they are the BEST team in the league!

Funny thing is, Hurts has 10 INTs (on fewer pass attempts than Tua) and Mahomes has 9 INTs. Yet no one seems to think that's a problem. But of course, Tua having 10 INTs is a sign of a struggling offense.

Tua also has more TDs and a much higher rating than both, and the Dolphins have scored a lot more points than both - but Tua's the one that's struggling.

And one more thing: the Eagles have a -2 turnover margin, and the Chiefs are the same as the Dolphins at -5.

But anyway, yes - if Miami corrects their mistakes they can beat absolutely any team.

JMP wrote:

mercury22nathan wrote:and its a good thing the defense has stepped up because it seems the offense has taken a somewhat similar regression.  lets hope the second half of the Jets game is a harbinger of things to come.  the good news is that the offenses woes seem to be self inflicted pre-snap penalties that can be corrected (especially as more talented players return to the lineup), yet the most concerning is...

...Miami’s minus-5 turnover margin, led by quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s 10 interceptions, a number that already exceeds last year’s total (eight).

https://sports.yahoo.com/chris-perkins-dolphins-better-ago-103000928.html

if Miami gets that corrected - they are the BEST team in the league!

Funny thing is, Hurts has 10 INTs (on fewer pass attempts than Tua) and Mahomes has 9 INTs.  Yet no one seems to think that's a problem. But of course, Tua having 10 INTs is a sign of a struggling offense.

Tua also has more TDs and a much higher rating than both, and the Dolphins have scored a lot more points than both - but Tua's the one that's struggling.

And one more thing: the Eagles have a -2 turnover margin, and the Chiefs are the same as the Dolphins at -5.  

But anyway, yes - if Miami corrects their mistakes they can beat absolutely any team.

Let's look at what we know to try and judge how good the Fins really are at this moment in time, with the knowledge that this time of year things are very much subject to change and at least one team every season who appears to be a lock for the playoffs always collapses and doesn't make it, while conversely every season a team whose playoff prospects appear hopeless suddenly goes on a hot streak and gets in.

In terms of point differential the Fins are currently 5th. Does that alone make them a top 5 team? YMMV, especially since the 10-1 Eagles are not one of the four ahead of them. But it certainly doesn't hurt, nor does it really make the case that the Fins are paper tigers. Paper tigers are teams like last season's Vikings or this season's Lions (PD of just +36 with losses to the Seahawks and Ravens. The only reason why the fraud label hasn't stuck to them is that annoying one-point escape job over KC in the opener when Chris Jones was holding out and even then they needed a pick 6 and lots of dropped passes. Then again last season's Vikings beat the Bills).

Okay, so what about record, then? There are currently seven other teams with 8 wins or more. The Fins are 0-2 VS that group, but that doesn't necessarily mean they're not a top 5 team. They could be "only" 5th best instead of, say, 3rd best. So far they've not lost to a team under .500 and now offically have beaten a team with a winning record...by 50. They do have a chance to beat two other teams from this group still.

Furthermore, the only current non-winning team they've lost to just happens to be the only 6-6 team since 1950 to have a point differential of over 100 Seriously. This strongly suggests that the Bills are significantly better than their record and in fact they also have the league's 4th best point differential. Hardly the same as losing to the Pats or Jets, which the Bills have done.

https://stathead.com/tiny/GSgiJ

So currently, by any objective measure and pretty much any subjective one as well, we know at this point in time that the only teams who have beaten the Fins are elite or close to elite themselves. If it takes that kind of team to beat them then that strongly suggests they very well could be a top 5 squad. It's really hard for me to wrap my mind around it, I still don't think this is anything close to a top 5 roster, but facts are facts.

JMP wrote:Funny thing is, Hurts has 10 INTs (on fewer pass attempts than Tua) and Mahomes has 9 INTs.  Yet no one seems to think that's a problem. But of course, Tua having 10 INTs is a sign of a struggling offense.

I wasn’t trying to compare Tua to other QBs are even make the case he’s struggling – he’s not, at all. I was comparing his first 6 games to the more recent 5. In the first 6 he threw 14 TDs to 5 ints a 2.8:1 ratio and in the last 5 he’s gone 8 TDs to 5 ints a 1.6:1 ratio. I think if he can come a little closer to the ratio of the first 6 games over these last 6 games – with the defense playing the way they are – I think the Dolphins will be a force to be reckoned with.

Coincidentally, the Phins had 15 rushing TDs over the first 6 games and only 4 over the last 5 (half of which were in this most recent Jets game). So its not just Tua, but sometimes the appearance of his interceptions, like the 2 unnecessary (awful) throws in the Jets game can kill the offense against better teams. If he can just eliminate those – and its really only a handful or less throws a game – this team, again, will be the team to beat.

mercury22nathan wrote:

JMP wrote:Funny thing is, Hurts has 10 INTs (on fewer pass attempts than Tua) and Mahomes has 9 INTs.  Yet no one seems to think that's a problem. But of course, Tua having 10 INTs is a sign of a struggling offense.

I wasn’t trying to compare Tua to other QBs are even make the case he’s struggling – he’s not, at all.  I was comparing his first 6 games to the more recent 5.  In the first 6 he threw 14 TDs to 5 ints a 2.8:1 ratio and in the last 5 he’s gone 8 TDs to 5 ints a 1.6:1 ratio.  I think if he can come a little closer to the ratio of the first 6 games over these last 6 games – with the defense playing the way they are – I think the Dolphins will be a force to be reckoned with.

Coincidentally, the Phins had 15 rushing TDs over the first 6 games and only 4 over the last 5 (half of which were in this most recent Jets game).  So its not just Tua, but sometimes the appearance of his interceptions, like the 2 unnecessary (awful) throws in the Jets game can kill the offense against better teams.  If he can just eliminate those – and its really only a handful or less throws a game – this team, again, will be the team to beat.

I wasn't directing my anger at you - more the media that gives everyone a pass except Tua.

But I do find it very funny that Dolfans are sweating over a QB throwing 8 TDs and 5 INTs in 5 games...for literally decades, we would have KILLED for those numbers from our QB!

JMP wrote:But I do find it very funny that Dolfans are sweating over a QB throwing 8 TDs and 5 INTs in 5 games...for literally decades, we would have KILLED for those numbers from our QB!  

and you almost had me agreeing with you.

but... as a Dolphin, Ryan Tannehill had 123 passing TDs to 75 ints. that's a ratio of 1.64:1 (slight better than Tua in the last 5 games). and i don't think any Dolfans would KILL for that.

surprisingly Tannehill was 27 TDs to 12 ints (2.25:1) in the 2014 8-8 season. but still not good enough - as too few TDs.

Tua is on pace for 34 TDs and if can get the TD:int ratio back to around 1.6:1 (or better) over the last 6 games, then again, i say the Dolphins are the team to beat (in the AFC for sure).

I was joking, but yes, Tannehill had a couple of decent seasons for us for sure.

Which reminds me - I still need to sell my Tannehill jersey...never got around to it.

All I'm getting out of this is that Tua's a much better QB when he's not throwing 3-yard outs at the tail end of the half for literally no reason

BTW he's now 4-0 VS the Jets yet just 1-5 VS the Bills despite throwing 5 TDs and 5 INTs VS each team and way more yards VS the Bills, so there's obviously much more to it than just that.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/TagoTu00/gamelog/?opp_id=nyj

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/TagoTu00/gamelog/?opp_id=buf

DolFan 316 wrote:All I'm getting out of this is that Tua's a much better QB when he's not throwing 3-yard outs at the tail end of the half for literally no reason

BTW he's now 4-0 VS the Jets yet just 1-5 VS the Bills despite throwing 5 TDs and 5 INTs VS each team and way more yards VS the Bills, so there's obviously much more to it than just that.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/TagoTu00/gamelog/?opp_id=nyj

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/TagoTu00/gamelog/?opp_id=buf

Yeah, those stupid short outs are just not worth it. Minimal gain if completed, disaster if not completed.

Those Jets/Bills stats are crazy! It seems like the whole team just falls apart against the Bills - just a total team meltdown.

JMP wrote:

https://twitter.com/Jason_Sarney/status/1729601973475749981

1992 you say? That just happens to be the last time they got a playoff bye and advanced as far as the AFC title game, hmmmm

Come to think of it, the offense took a late season dive that time too. After a 6-0 start in which they led the league in both scoring and point differential, the '92 Fins scored just six TDs in their final six regular season games...and opposing Ds scored four!

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/mia/1992.htm

Somehow they avoided the traditional Fins December Dive--only because the Jets and Pats were too bad to let them lose. They only got a bye because the Bills inexplicably lost to the Raiders, Jets and Colts (seem familiar?) and then...coming off the bye they were a completely different team, curbstomping the Chargers 31-0 in what IMO is their best postseason performance ever.

All of that was just a setup for me to tell the story of how I saw that game at my non-DolFan grandma's with dad, my aunt, and her corrupt yet affable county sheriff BF who died about a year later from a heart attack because she served him bacon and eggs for breakfast every morning. I think they all just watched it to humor me. That's my story and I'm sticking to it