My 2024 draft thoughts

Good stuff:

They let this draft come to them. Didn't force an OT at 21 after 6 had been taken. Ended up getting good value at the position in Paul at 55, and in fact got ahead of the second run on OT's by doing so: Fisher went four picks later, and Foster was the only one worth taking left by the middle of the third.

We also started the run on halfbacks in the fourth round. I'm not a fan of trading future picks to get a current lower pick, but Wright was a good, eye to the future value where he was picked. Four went in the next 14 picks, so obviously if we wanted him we had to pull the trigger.

Doubling up on WR was a good idea. Both are good values, Malik Washington should step in as our slot WR quickly, and Tahj should at the very least stick as a kick returner. Not sure Berrios is going to keep that job.

In general a premium was placed on skill positions, with 3 potential playmakers on offense and two EDGE rushers.

Stuff I didn't like:

Pick 198 was not good value IMO. I know I mentioned Boyd, but with a little more time to think Beaux Limmer should have been the pick IMO. The interior O-line is very, very likely to be this team's Achilles heel again 2024. I sure hope I'm wrong. And while I get the point that you're unlikely to find eventual starters in the late rounds, it isn't impossible: two teams that won playoff games last year found immediate O-line starters on Day 3 in the last two years (Green Bay with Tom and 49ers with Burford). So I'd take that flyer if it's me.

Yeah, I can kind of forgive it with Wright being the pick, but I'm still no fan of trading a future 3rd for a current 4th. I get it that we are expecting a compensatory third rounder next year, but I still would NOT count on the NFL ever playing fair with this team after the bullshit loss of draft picks for "tampering". I'll believe that we get a couple of third rounders when I see it.

Bottom line:

I like the players we got for the most part, and all but one made sense to me. I feel a lot better about OT as I think Paul is capable of playing fairly quickly, but the interior positions, center included, ain't giving me a warm and fuzzy right now.

Nice write-up, Hal.

I agree on most of your analysis.

Chop is what Chop is. He needs to work on pass rushing techniques and become more technical with his arms and hands. The motor is there for sure. Yes, I am saying Chop needs to learn how to CHOP!!!

Paul? I don't think he is ready to play in the NFL, but we will see. They used a 2nd rounder for a pick on a player who may not be able to play until NEXT YEAR???

I identified Wright as a McD type RB early on but the idea got poo pooed on by the board... But even I thought the Phins were trading up to get a S or a CB, maybe even a LB or WR.

Kamara may turn out to be better than Chop!!  I know a few talking heads who said he was going to be the sleeper of the draft once he adjusted to the NFL. This pick really surprised me. Especially since Hunter Nourzad was sitting right there. And went to the Chiefs on the next pick!! The CHiefs who routinely pick starters with late round picks!!

Washington - Another small speedy WR. I guess they think Berrios ain't enough?

McMorris - A safety with good skills.

Another Washington - Another Another small speedy WR. I guess they think Berrios ain't enough even more?

Yet again, I am wondering how and why Grier set up his board this way? The Phins Biggest Need was addressed (EDGE) but not the next which most everyone thought was IOL.

We have to face the facts: Grier does not think drafting IOL is worth it if he has any other viable players for the position.

I think this is a foolish idea for a team GM and it will ultimately lead to Grier's downfall. Hopefully not the team's but...

It will be quite telling if the Oline is the reason another Phins season goes sideways IMO.

going by the NFL.com board, we ended up with the 12th (Chop), 45th (Wright), 62nd (Malik), and 83rd (Paul) ranked prospects on their big board. Kamara was next at 121st.

FWIW.

Here is my take on each pick. Keep in mind that I judge draft picks almost entirely on fit - not whether or not I liked the player entering the draft, or whether or not I would have made a different pick. My main concern is how they fit with what I think the Phins want to do. These guys are on the teaam, and we can't change that - so what do they bring to the table?

Chop Robinson - Elite traits and elite athleticism. Very young and still developing, but an incredibly high ceiling - arguably the highest ceiling of any pass rusher in the draft. He needs to improve hand use and add to his repertoire of pass rush moves and finishing moves, but with the Dolphins coaching staff and the veteran players around him I think he'll get where he needs to be. He'll play early and often at a variety of positions in the front 7. Boom-bust type who could end up being either fellow Penn Staters Micha Parsons (boom) or Jayson Ohweh (bust) - but my guess is he'll be more like Parsons.

Patrick Paul - I did not expect the Phins to take a LT, assuming that they'd be looking for more immediate-impact players. Paul likely won't play much if at all as a rookie - but that's OK because he plays a premium position that we needed to fill in 2025. Paul is a mountain of a man, standing over 6'7" and over 330 pounds. He had over 40 starts at LT in a Houston program that runs a fairly similar offense to McDaniel's - and that's an important consideration. Elite size and athleticism, though he is raw and needs to improve hand use and leverage, especially in run blocking. Seeing what the Dolphins coaching staff did last season with unheralded OL, I'm excited to see how they develop this top-shelf lineman. Paul is likely our starting LT of the future - and that future will likely be sooner than later.

Jaylen Wright - The Dolphins didn't have a 4th round pick, but traded one of their three 3rds next year to move up and take Wright. I was not a huge fan of Wright, mostly because he didn't get too many carries at Tennessee and played in a weird, somewhat-gimmicky offense. He was a bit of a hard evaluation for me. But the fit for the Phins is obvious: he has elite athleticism and speed, and he's a very good pass protector. He's raw as a receiver, but shows the ability. One of several things that killed the Phins last season was Achane's injury. the best offense in the entire NFL last season was the Dolphins' - when they had both Mostert and Achane on the field at the same time. Without Achane, the offense fell back down to earth a bit. Wright gives the Phins a similar (but bigger) chess piece to help take the load off both Achane and Mostert, and he will likely be the 2025 starting RB. Some people have called him - potentially - the most explosive offensive player in the draft, and you can see that in how he runs and how he racked up a bunch of 70+ yard runs in college.

Mohamed Kamara - The Dolphins picked this expected 3rd round prospect in round 5, providing excellent value. Injuries derailed the Miami D last season and really highlighted the old saying that you can never have enough pass rushers. Kamara was highly productive in college, and he has an elite skillset that makes him an easy fit in Weaver's defense as an OLB. This just might be one of the steals of the draft. Like his friend Chop, I expect Mo to play early and often as a rookie.

Malik Washington - I find Washington to be very similar to a guy the Jets drafted in round 3 - Malachi Corley. The two players are short but built like tanks and very strong, and they both excel at YAC and breaking tackles. Getting Washington 3 rounds later is outstanding value. I expect Washington to slide right in to a big role in the slot. He led the nation in both catches and broken tackles, and I expect him to be a favorite target on 3rd downs.

Patrick McMorris - Up to this point, I've loved all the Dolphins' picks. The fit for all 5 is easy to see. And then there's Patrick McMorris. Safety was a big need, and McMorris looks the part in terms of body type at 6', 210. He racked up tackles at Cal - but isn't considered a strong tackler, and he did have 6 career INTs - but isn't credited with good ball skills. He's also not particularly fast or athletic. McMorris has tons of experience but has been very inconsistent. Overall, I thought there were better safety prospects available (including Mark Perry, who the Phins signed as a UDFA), but McMorris has a golden opportunity to earn a roster spot because of the lack of depth at the position. He needs a strong spring and summer, and has to show special teams ability as well. I don't hate the pick - but I don't love it either.

Tahj Washington - Very productive receiver who split time at Memphis and USC. 4 years in a row with 600+ yards, and has good return skills. He's not a big guy but he's strong and can also block. He should be a core special teamer right out of the gate - which is exactly what you want in round 7.

Overall, I give this draft a B+ - but it could easily jump to a high A if these guys get close to their expected ceilings. It seems like the Phins focused (mostly) on getting players with elite traits - speed, strength, athleticism - and high ceilings, and they are trusting their coaching staff to develop them. I believe you can never go wrong drafting for traits, because those are things you just can't teach.

One other thing about each of these players - they are all tough, smart, intelligent and display leadership ability. Most were team captains. These are all players that will help both on the field and in the locker room. I thought Grier did a great job of letting the draft come to him, without panicking and without making reach picks to fill needs. Excellent job all around, and it may end up being one of Grier's best overall drafts, from top to bottom.

Chop Robinson. I see the athletic potential and his lightening quick, explosive first step is very valuable. He’s best moving forward and disrupting the offensive flow, but can’t be asked to do much with respect to holding the point of attack on the perimeter – as has been reflected by his scant production and continued reserve DE role in college. Its not to say he can’t sometime in the future develop into a more every-down type player, but its gonna take a lot of work and patience. In the immediate future his most likely role will be rushing from the end of D-line (as opposed to a true 3-4 OLB spot), but he desperately needs to increase his pass rush moves, hand technique and strength. He makes his living off his speed and quick twitch – and while these are superior traits, in the pros he’ll get ridden right around the pocket and must increase his strength and drive to go through pass blockers. I understand the need for pass rushers, but I also believe there were more talented players (yet perhaps at positions that were less of an immediate need) on the board when he was selected. It’s a calculated risk pick based on potential and athletic traits influenced by need, but at a critical impact position. And that is why I’m giving it a B-minus instead of just an average C. 82/100

Patrick Paul. Another pick based on the potential of superior athletic traits to fill an impact position of need. Perhaps not immediate need, but certainly a glaring need after this season and perhaps during the season with Armstead’s injury history. Whether Paul will be developed enough to be called upon if needed this year or if the Dolphins have to resort to Lamm again remains to be seen. And while it would be nice to grab immediate starters in the early rounds, it can be hard to pass up an enormous human being with the necessary traits to fill the very important LT position. Pass protection ability is there and he’ll only need some polish and technique refinement to handle pro pass rushers. Run blocking skills need serious attention and drive blocking may never be his forte (it’s hard for a man this large to keep his pad level low enough). But you know what team doesn’t fret about drive/power blocking much…the Miami Dolphins. With their wide zone scheme, if Paul can learn enough to use his athleticism to wall and seal, he should be adequately functional. Based on potential, need and position with a slight knock for lacking immediacy, I’m giving this pick a solid B. 85/100

Jaylen Wright. For the Dolphins scheme, he was probably the best RB in the draft and has demonstrated unmatched explosiveness at the college level (FF gets credit). The pick does not appear to fill and immediate need, but Mostert might be in his last year and this past year perhaps showed that durability may always be a concern with Achane (Mostert missed 2 games as well). If he can make an impact this season in a reserve role (Wilson never regained his form last year and might be at risk) and potential injury substitute, then his 4th round value would be a definite plus. And while it wasn’t highlighted in college much, his weight compared to Mostert and Achane might carve a role when tough yards (3 or less) are needed. On the face of it, given his speed and ability to break long runs this would be a solid A as a 4th round pick if it weren’t for having to give up a 3rd next year – however that might be somewhat mitigated by the anticipated compensatory picks. I am therefore giving this an A-minus. 92/100

Mohamed Kamara. In terms of production, Mo is everything you wish Chop was. However, his measurables don’t quite measure up to Robinson’s, but if you could somehow combine the two, you’d be looking at a top 10 pick. Kamara might actually be suited to contribute more immediately than Chop as a backup LBer. He has a motor, bend and a pass rush arsenal. He too has a very quick first step, but possesses pretty good awareness and has the sack and tackle production to back it up. While I think Chop will begin his career as a rusher off the line, I believe Kamara is more suited to fill the OLB gap if Chubb isn’t ready to go at the start of the season. So why was he a 5th rounder and Chop was a 1st – physical measurables (not necessarily performance measurables) and Mo might be at or near his ceiling (albeit a very good one) and Chop has potential to be something special if all goes well (or a guy who never quite reaches the level his workout numbers portend). He will need to prove that he won’t get swallowed up by larger O-linemen at the pro level, but all the traits and even more (short of height) are there for a 5th round pick. Taken all into consideration, this might be my favorite pick of the draft so I’m giving it a solid A as this is what 5th rounders should look like. 96/100

Malik Washington. Another good pick relative to the round in which he is being taken. I went into the draft thinking (ok, hoping) Miami might take a highly-rated WR with a physical presence and then move Waddle into the slot, but they appear committed to the relatively smaller Hill and Waddle on the outside to take the top off of defenses. While not a long burner, Washington does have the ability to cut laterally and make short area separation out of the slot as well as his ability to break tackles and gain YAC. Something about his college tape made me think about former Panthers/Ravens WR Steve Smith. He may also be quite suited in the role of underneath receiver in the redzone. His college production is superb, and he seems to have received high evaluation marks. I suspect his height knocked him down and had he been 2 to 4 inches taller we’d be talking about a 2nd rounder. For a 6th rounder its hard to ask for a lot more than this. Solid A. 94/100

Patrick McMorris. I’m not gonna pretend like a know a whole lot about him, but for a safety that doesn’t have tons of production and supposedly isn’t a big-time tackler, I gotta wonder if this was need-based reach – and yes, safety is a screaming need. He did have a 4-interception season at SD State which earned him the transfer to Cal, but maybe he’s reached his ceiling and that was the high water mark. I’m not expecting much from this pick and I think the upside might be found on special teams if he sticks. He has the size and some zone-coverage skills, but I don’t see anything beyond average here. C. 76/100

Tahj Washington. If you imagined the leading USC receiver for the QB picked number one in the draft, you’d think Keyshawn Johnson. Well, Tahj ain’t him. He did produce though, but one has to wonder at the ability of a 5’10” guying topping the scales at 174 lbs who isn’t a blazing sprinter to succeed on the pro level. I think he faces an uphill battle, however he does have return experience and apparently excelled as a special teams gunner despite his size. I suppose one could argue that if you’re gonna take a chance on a guy like this (or McMorris), couldn’t the Dolphins had taken a chance on an interior O-linemen? I’m guessing that special teams potential was the deciding factor and it’s a 7th round value. B. 83/100

I warned folks not to get their hopes up for a O-linemen too high in this draft unless it was a generational type LT (I guess they see that possibility in Paul) – and certainly not a interior O-linemen, but even I was surprised they decided to stay pat and not draft any OGs. I can only think they feel they’ll be able to add a more starting quality OG later in the offseason. I know a lot of people thought maybe DT, but I don’t think a line-controlling, block-sucking NT behemoth was in the cards. But what about replacing Wilkins? The more I think about it, Wilkins was a man without a position (or repetitive of what they have in Seiler) in Weaver’s defensive concept – well, at least at the salary he commanded. He’s not a NT and despite improving this year, he is not a consistent, disruptive pass rushing threat so I don’t think they were looking to replace him with the same style of D-linemen (I think the hope is that Chop will be the DE pressure maker – but I know not everyone agrees with me on that). Overall the middle part of the draft has me more excited, but the top two could really turn things around if they reach their potential. Based on a weighted score (1st round equals 7 times the value, a 2nd six times and so on) I give the Dolphins draft an 87/100 when accounting for expected grade compared to actual selections made (not having a 3rd round selection neither hurts or helps the grade) which is a solid B.

Great analysis merc! Well done.

Love JMP & MERC Typing up these Journals for us and so Informative, Damn if I type More than Two Paragraphs My ASS is taking a Nap.

Yeah...I have been watching Chop videos. He has enormous bend... maybe too much. I think a veteran OT in the NFL is going to let him bend and then fall on him!!

His first step is a good one though. I do agree with Daniel Jeremiah though.... He needs to lengthen his strides, which would make him even faster on the rush IMO.

Hopefully, he will get in early and they can start working with him and he WILL reach his potential.

Kamara's highlights are great. He shows power and speed, and uses his hands like Chop needs to. If he was two inches taller, he would have been a 2nd rounder for sure IMO!! I was really surprised Grier went for another EDGE guy, but maybe last year when they lost their four top pass rushers late has taught Grier something?

Paul? I was stunned by the pick. Probably shouldn't have been, but I did not think Paul was going to go in the 2nd at all. I agree his upside is huge but I do not think he will ever be Terron Armstead good?

Jaylen Wright? I posted about Wright early on and said I thought he was the ideal McD RB and allowed those negative-nancys JMP and DF316 to talk me out of it... besides, the Phins did not have a 3rd or a 4th which is where I though Wright would go. Apparently, Grier IS LISTENING to McD. I think this pick was just like Achane last year; all on McD! He knows what he wants for the offense and Grier is getting it for him.

About Wright: If he can stay healthy, he can make a difference for the Phins. Just like Achane.

Malik Washington - Love the YAC he gets. He is short but in the slot I guess it does not matter. A great value pick it looks like. Hope it works out.

McMorris - Yeah, this one did not make much sense to me as I was sure they would have gone for TCU S Nook Bradford with the last pick, but... I agree with Hal. The pick should have been for Beaux Limmer OG/C from Arkansas who went # 217 to the Rams.

Nook signed as a UDFA with the Saints and ran a 4.42 vs McMorris 4.53 forty time.

McMorris is a sound technically skilled safety, but I always thought Miami wanted fast safeties and McMorris ain't exactly fast IMO.

Tahj - Competition for KR/PR I assume? I guess Grier doesn't want any WRs who are carrying ANY extra weight (Or height!!) or lbs that might slow them down.

As JMP says, how likely was it that an OLineman drafted in the late rounds was going to secure a starting spot for the Phins Oline this season? Unlikely, but it can happen.

Did anyone notice that the Steelers have basically refashioned their entire stinky Oline in the last two drafts? And took THREE Olinemen in this draft. TWO with their first two picks!!!

The steelers took Troy Fautanu #20. Let me add this made me but not nearly as much as watching Grier pass on Fautanu at #21 would have!!

Then backed it up by taking Zach Frazier at #51. After taking Fautanu in the first? What are these Steelers guys nuts or what! Taking two interior Olinemen with their first two picks when Grier is telling everyone IOL men can be picked up for pocket change anywhere and there is no need to waste draft capital on them!!!

And if that wasn't just rubbing salt and whiskey into the Phin Phans open Oline wounds, they then took OG Mason McCormick at # 119!!!

I am sure Grier got the vapors and had to be treated at this insane drafting by the Steelers!!

So we know.. at least the Steelers are not in line with Grier's complete disdain and insistence that IOL are not worth drafting!

I added that last bit for DF316 especially!!!

Great posts and comments.