The Dolphins Best 2024 Draft Value Pick

Here's an Athletic article where they pick all team's best value draft pick:

2024 Best Value Picks by team

Here's who they say for Miami:

Miami Dolphins: Jaylen Wright, RB, Tennessee
Wright is a home-run hitter with speed who perfectly suits Mike McDaniel’s offense. Wright, who was Brugler’s 83rd-ranked prospect, was the 120th pick, so he represents tremendous value. More than that, the league had to have collectively groaned when he landed in Miami. Wright, who ran a 4.38 40 at the combine, rushed for 1,888 yards and 14 touchdowns over the last two seasons. — Jeff Howe

It is hard to argue that Wright fits the mold McD wants in a RB, the fact that this pick actually cost Miami a 3rd in 2025 and the 4th they used in this draft, I am not sure that is SUPER GREAT VALUE IMHO.

I think Mo Kamara MIGHT turn out to be the better value. He had a 3rd-4th round grade in some draft rankings.

And Malik Washington was ranked higher than Mo Kamara in some rankings! Unless he is just super-fantastic-awesome, I doubt Malik gets more than 30-40 targets all season.

I do think all three of these picks show some good value and I hope they all work out well for the Phins.

We can argue what Grier SHOULD HAVE DONE with the picks later I guess?      

What's interesting about this Dolphins draft class is that we have several contenders for "best value" pick: not just Kamara and Wright, but both Washingtons too. Even Chop - depending on where you had him on your list (I have heard of a couple of people that had him as a top 15 player).

For me, I think I'd go with Malik Washington as best value. I actually think he's a similar player to Malachi Corley - and maybe better, certainly in terms of route running and hands. But Corley was the first pick of the 3rd round (#65 overall, to the Jets), while Malik went in the 6th round at #184! That isn't good value - it's EXCELLENT value. I fully expect Malik to be the full-time slot receiver sooner than later, and his ability to get open and break tackles will make him a valuable 3rd down target.

Thought about making this its own thread, but anything with "draft value" in the title seems to be as good as any place to put this. I know there has been a lot of questions about how Grier sets up his draft board and then how (if) he follows that board during the actual draft. Now, caveat this with the fact that this is Omar Kelly’s (now working for the Herald) OPINION, but there might be some decent insights in this article.

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/omar-kelly/article288247380.html

Even though guard is a bigger position of need for Miami because Terron Armstead, Austin Jackson, Kendall Lamm and Jack Discoll provide solid tackle depth, the Dolphins decision makers stress that Paul was the highest rated player on their scheme specific draft board.

Note the “scheme specific” description – which makes perfect sense – however, it may also mean that players that are in our (and many scouts and GMs) opinions better overall football players, they may not get selected as Miami does not see them as a scheme fit. So Grier might end up selecting a lesser (or what we believe as a lesser) player for a player who is more highly rated on his board due to scheme fit. For instance, an OG might be universally seen as the best OG in the draft, however, if he is more of a road grading, phone booth, power scheme blocker, Miami would most likely bypass him for an OG who has more athletic wide zone traits – or even more likely select a player at a different position who is a scheme fit. And that might also explain why no OGs were selected in the draft and the few that were signed as UDFAs have received high marks for pass blocking but are not very good (or highly rated) run blockers – as OGs in Miami’s system are not asked to run block straight up, but rather use their athleticism to get in the way (wall and seal) while the runs are designed to go wide away from the defenders and find cutback lanes on the perimeter.

The Dolphins stress two things about the 2024 draft class after each day of the draft.

First, they operated based on the BPA (Best Player Available) approach.

Now that approach is team, scheme and specific needs based, but that’s been a fundamental, philosophical approach during the general manager Chris Grier era, one that Miami admittedly strays from in the later rounds.

And second, the Dolphins built the present roster looking at the team from the prism of a two-year window.

That means the focus isn’t just about today, it also has one eye locked on tomorrow, when the next batch of contracts expire, free agents price themselves out of Miami’s plans, and the next crop of 30-somethings age out of the program.

Again, note that BPA may not truly be BPA (as we and other scouts and GMs see it). We discussed scheme influence above, but Miami may also factor need into BPA. Typically, BPA is usually discussed in terms of BPA despite specific needs, but Miami seems to take need into account…well, at least how they have determined what the team “needs” are. But then Miami may also stray from this formula. Which I suppose means that if they get a feeling about a certain player or perhaps if they see a player that is not the BPA and does not fill an immediate need, but perhaps they believe is an upgrade over what they already have, they might select that player (or maybe it’s a player that a certain position coach strongly lobbies for).

And also note that while many of us are worried about making the team better for next year, Miami is drafting for beyond just next year. So maybe while they would like to win now, maybe they are not in as much “win now” mode as we might believe. Perhaps they are willing to let some FAs go and build for the future (despite that we are in Year 5 of a 3 year rebuild – but maybe Flores to McDaniel reset that).

Excellent post, merc.

I think this is the key:

merc wrote:Note the “scheme specific” description – which makes perfect sense – however, it may also mean that players that are in our (and many scouts and GMs) opinions better overall football players, they may not get selected as Miami does not see them as a scheme fit. So Grier might end up selecting a lesser (or what we believe as a lesser) player for a player who is more highly rated on his board due to scheme fit.

This really explains the disconnect we often see post-draft between fans who wanted "their" picks and teams who have set their board up according to their own logic.

BPA is always in the eye of the beholder.

BPA actually starts at the beginning of the Draft and You see Teams take Players that doesn't make sense but there Board is Different than other teams , Two Teams actually said after the Draft how many Players they had as 1st rd Picks . Bears said they had 24 Players as 1st rd picks, Cardinals said 21, Would Love to Know how many we had graded as 1st rd picks. I was Happy that Daniels wasn't taken by the Pats because we suck against Mobile Qb's and Maye isn't as Mobile.

Good points, kev. I heard somewhere that the Phins had 15 players ranked as first rounders, but I don't know how true that is...I can't remember where I saw that.

Maye has serious accuracy issues IMO, but clearly has upside. Can he learn how to become an accurate passer like Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen did? That will determine his fate IMO. But I am not worried about him at all as a rookie.

DolFan 316 wrote:Speaking of draft value, I found this to be interesting...

https://www.the33rdteam.com/the-hidden-reality-of-draft-value-part-1/

I didn't read all three parts yet, but very interetsing stuff.

I like this sentence: "Coaching and Front Office regimes tend to live and die by the early round picks they make, but perhaps the quality of the decision makers should be determined by the value they accumulate later on in the draft." That makes perfect sense, considering that the early picks are the players that are expected, at some level, to be successful. Later picks are more often considered a total crapshoot. And of course, the low salaries of those later round players makes them even more attractive if they also become good players.

Here's something somebody should tell Grier:

Part 3 wrote:Not only does history suggest that moving back a few spots doesn’t significantly decrease the chances of picking a quality player, but also that moving back at certain points in the draft significantly increases your chances of securing a quality-value player.

I still do not think Grier has the right approach to the draft. He does manage to hit on some players, but he never seems to maximize the draft like he should IMO.

A move back a few spots and getting that 4th rounder to use on Jaylen Wright and maybe having THREE 3rd rounders in 2025!!! was not enticing enough to MAYBE risk missing out on Chop Robinson?

Anyway... If Robinson turns into a stud pass rusher, who will care?

We have 18 RBs on the roster that fits McDs style:D
I tell out you one thing looking at the pictures of rookie camp the OL is one big MFer.

JEGnj wrote:We have 18 RBs on the roster that fits McDs style:D  
I tell out you one thing looking at the pictures of rookie camp the OL is one big MFer.

Yeah, Patrick Paul is absolutely GIGANTIC. I saw a photo of him standing next to the other Phins draft picks, and it looks like they'd all need a ladder to touch the top of his head. He's a ginormous human being. Supposedly he looked super-athletic and fast in the rookie camp.

finfanatic wrote:
I still do not think Grier has the right approach to the draft. He does manage to hit on some players, but he never seems to maximize the draft like he should IMO.

A move back a few spots and getting that 4th rounder to use on  Jaylen Wright and maybe having THREE 3rd rounders in 2025!!! was not enticing enough to MAYBE risk missing out on Chop Robinson?  

Anyway... If Robinson turns into a stud pass rusher, who will care?  

You're right - no one will care if Chop and a couple of the other picks turn out to be great players! Let's hope that's the case!

Grier's approach was great this draft, IMO. He let the draft come to him and didn't panic, and traded up once on day 3 to land a player the team targeted - using one of next year's surplus of picks. He got excellent value throughout the draft, and did not reach for anyone.

Trading down is great in principle - but if no team is offering fair value, then you don't do it. It sounds like that's exactly what happened: Grier fielded offers, but didn't get one that made sense for the team in terms of compensation. As much as I wanted to trade down, I'm perfectly happy staying put at 21 and taking the last of the top 4 pass rushers in this class - but I would not have been happy if we made a trade that brought back poor value.

I also have no problem trading a 3rd for Jaylen Wright. At that point in the draft, aggressively moving up for a player you targeted is a good move - especially when you have extra picks in your pocket in 2025. Wright is going to play a lot of roles in this offense, and he is likely the starting back by next season if not sooner. It's OK to have "only" a 1st, a 2nd, and two 3rds on the first two days next year .