Vegas doesn't recognize Phins' improvement

Get ready for Head Coach Mangini.

Mangini is the doomsday prediction, but I'm not so sure even Tannebaum thinks he's worthy of another shot.

A good head coach learns from past mistakes, Mangini followed up his NYJ stint with back to back 5-11 seasons in Cleveland.

If you're Mangini, how do you convince anyone you've actually learned anything and are ready to succeed?

I just don't see it.

white1 wrote:If you're Mangini, how do you convince anyone you've actually learned anything and are ready to succeed?

I just don't see it.

Have you forgotten who the Fins' owner is? I'm convinced Ross can be convinced of anything.

I'm at least 75% certain that Mangini will be the Dolphins next coach. He's a brilliant defensive mind, and he actually coached TEs for the 49ers before becoming their DC...so he now has experience on both sides.

Mangini's biggest problem is his personality...he's so dull, he makes Joe Montana look interesting. (And for those who haven't seen Montana speak, let's just say I've seen blocks of wood that were more interesting...)

Given the dearth of quality coaches in the NFL at this moment, I have no doubt that Mangini will get another look if the Niners are even half-way decent this season...and it's not difficult to connect the dots between Tannenbaum and Mangini.

And you know what...I'd be OK with Mangini. Philbin, of course, also has zero personality...but from a football perspective, I think Mangini can run rings around him. And I also think Mangini has learned a lot since his failed head coaching opportunities.

Give me a strong GM that Tannenbaum endorses, and Mangini as a HC, and I believe we'll FINALLY have a front office and coaching staff that is all on the same page, with the same vision. That would be a huge improvement right there.

For the record I'm also okay with Mangini.

Vegas has moved the line for Miami to 9 wins. Interesting.

I simply cannot see the Fins winning more than 2 games in the division, tops. And that depends on whether Belichick feels like letting them beat him for his own personal amusement again this season. I'm guessing after the whole deflated balls thing he won't be in the mood. They'll beat the Bills once because at this point it's become a law of the universe that the Fins beat a Rex Ryan coached team once a season. But there's no way on God's green earth the Jets don't sweep them. I would bet all my worldly possessions on it.

BTW the last time the Fins played the NFC East was the season they started 0-7. Just sayin'. If I were you guys I'd brace myself for what's going to be a serious candidate for worst D in franchise history. The only thing that can stop this from happening is if somehow Ross forces Philbin to fire Coyle in midseason.

DolFan 316 wrote: If I were you guys I'd brace myself for what's going to be a serious candidate for worst D in franchise history. The only thing that can stop this from happening is if somehow Ross forces Philbin to fire Coyle in midseason.

I'm holding out hope that the D will be better than last season, but looking at the LB corps and the secondary (particularly QB) I'm very nervous. I don't think it'll be one of the worst defenses in team history at all, but unless miracles happen it could be a lot worse than many Dolfans expect.

Check the points allowed from the last 4 games of the season again. It's brutal. In fact I can only find two other 4-game stretches in Fins history when they gave up more. One was in their first season and the other was the legendarily awful '86 D.

You've got the same guy back running it, who's already universally regarded as incompetent even by his own players. The two best defenders from last year are both geezers by NFL standards, and Wake's decline already started last season. They didn't draft any LBs despite having what was already arguably the league's worst unit. We still have no idea who will start at CB opposite Grimes, who is the other geezer. Adding Suh looks good on paper until you think about how the Lions never won a playoff game with him. Unless he suddenly develops a magical JJ Watt-like ability to literally do everything and anything on the field, adding a DT won't stop the pass D from getting shredded because Suh's presence didn't stop that from happening with the Lions.

The sad part is, Tannehill may very well be much improved and it still may not matter because of the D.

Of all possible outcomes I can see for 2015, I would take a bad defense and improved Tannehill all day every day.

If we have confidence we have solved QB, a defense can be rebuilt in one offseason with the right coordinator. QB is a much larger problem to have.

In another thread Mangini was discussed as a possible HC candidate in Miami, he could probably take the players we have right now and field a playoff caliber top-10 defense.

white1 wrote:Of all possible outcomes I can see for 2015, I would take a bad defense and improved Tannehill all day every day.

If we have confidence we have solved QB, a defense can be rebuilt in one offseason with the right coordinator.  QB is a much larger problem to have.  

Oh, I completely agree...QB is the primary concern, always. But if we're talking strictly about how many games the Phins will win in 2015, I'm not sure the defense (or OL, for that matter) will help us get above .500. But yeah, if we know we have the QB then we can feel confident about the future.

And yeah, that defense was simply abysmal at the end of last season...too horrific to adequately describe with words. I think far too many people assume that the D is fixed and the team is now a contender because...Suh. But that was never the case in Detroit, so I don't know why anyone expects it to be the case in Miami.

Coyle has underwhelmed from day 1 here in Miami.

It all fell apart late last year, suggesting the direction he was taking the defense over three seasons along with adjustments and learning from game day experience culminated in total, sustained failure. Against opponents with underwhelming offenses, nevertheless.

So I agree with your skepticism. Unless he got a brain transplant from Rex Ryan, there is no reason to believe he can field a great defense in Miami, regardless of the roster he's got to work with.

Just simplifying the defense is HUGE. This way when players get injured the 2nd or 3rd string player's head isn't spinning trying to grasp the defense. If Wake and Grimes decline this year, sure the D could be a disappointment. I believe both have at least 1 more year of pro bowl caliber play. I'm not even slightly worried about the defense. Now the OL, this troubles me.

Birdmond wrote:Just simplifying the defense is HUGE.  This way when players get injured the 2nd or 3rd string player's head isn't spinning trying to grasp the defense.   If Wake and Grimes decline this year, sure the D could be a disappointment.  I believe both have at least 1 more year of pro bowl caliber play.    I'm not even slightly worried about the defense.   Now the OL, this troubles me.  

I tend to take statements like that ("We simplified the defense!") with a grain of salt, because I don't really know what it means. How much was the D really simplified, and what exactly was done? I don't have those answers.

Regardless, the problem at the end of last season wasn't related to the defense being too complicated...it was more an issue of older players being completely done by the end of the season, at least IMO. Guys like Wake, Starks, Mitchell and Grimes were completely dead and useless in the last few games, and it was complicated by the fact that we were mostly playing a 5-2 front but had just one 'real' LB (Jenkins). And, we had no second corner and Vernon couldn't beat single blocks. It all resulted in a total collapse by season's end.

I'm not convinced that we've improved the secondary or the LB corps. Add Coyle remaining in charge, and I am VERY concerned about the defense.

Agree with JMP. The statement you can fix a defense by simplifying the scheme is... over simplistic IMO

Coyle I think has failed in creating a sound scheme that caters to the talent he has, winning matchups on game day, and making effective in game adjustments while calling the right defense at the right time.

Superior talent would help him, but I don't think we have that, and IMO he will be exposed - again - especially later in the season when other OCs are able to assess what he's trying to do.

No question in my mind barring injuries this is a top 10 defense. No worries whatsoever.

Branden Albert's health and the guard position make or break this season.

Birdmond wrote:No question in my mind barring injuries this is a top 10 defense.  No worries whatsoever.  

Branden Albert's health and the guard position make or break this season.  

Wow, I don't see this being anywhere close to a top 10 D...not with the LBs and CBs on this roster.

On the offense, I have questions about Tannehill and the receivers - how long will it take everyone to get on the same page, and will Tannehill improve his pocket presence and ball placement (among other things.) And yeah, right now the OL looks like a potential disaster.

looks like the betting public believes the Phins have significantly improved.

In the wake of gamblers betting a lot of money on Miami winning the Super Bowl, the Mirage and 11 Nevada casinos have dropped the odds of the Dolphins winning the Super Bowl from 50-to-1 to 20-to-1, which represents the 10th shortest odds among 32 teams.

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/sports-buzz/2015/06/analysts-scouts-assess-heat-options-at-no-10-in-draft-dolphins-marlins-canes-items.html

of course, Vegas doesn't build opulent casinos by giving money away.  the phrase, "there's a sucker born every minute," comes to mind.

mercury22nathan wrote:looks like the betting public believes the Phins have significantly improved.

In the wake of gamblers betting a lot of money on Miami winning the Super Bowl, the Mirage and 11 Nevada casinos have dropped the odds of the Dolphins winning the Super Bowl from 50-to-1 to 20-to-1, which represents the 10th shortest odds among 32 teams.

http://miamiherald.typepad.com/sports-buzz/2015/06/analysts-scouts-assess-heat-options-at-no-10-in-draft-dolphins-marlins-canes-items.html

of course, Vegas doesn't build opulent casinos by giving money away.  the phrase, "there's a sucker born every minute," comes to mind.

My guess is that "betting public" in this case means overzealous Dolfans! LOL For non-Dolphins fans, I think the team will have to prove itself before anyone believes in them.

If the guard play continues as advertised, we won't get a chance to see anything from Tannehill.

With what they have currently on that line, I'd wager we don't win more than 6 games and give up around 60 sacks again. They'll be double-a blitzing the shit out of us all season, and since this offense is allergic to fullbacks, we'll lose more battles up front than we should.

You don't need 5 all-pros, but you need something better at guard than what we field every year. It amazes me that we can't find any talent at guard in the draft. I'm hoping that it will work out, but it doesn't usually work that way when you have holes like this.

Couldn't agree more, Degarmo. If you keep putting crap on the O-line and continue to get crap results, it shouldn't be a surprise. Looking at the division we're in, I am simply flabbergasted that the team thinks they can get away with garbage at guard. If Tannehill makes it through the 4 games against the Jets and Bills without injury, it will be a miracle.

And, as you probably all know by now, I HATE not using a fullback. A fullback is such a versatile weapon...great to have in short-yardage, goal-line and 3rd down situations. I'd love to see a John Kuhn-type FB in this offense...would do wonders for both Tannehill and the running game IMHO. I know it's a dying breed around the league, but I still think there's a place for it.

WAIT A MINUTE, THAT'S...THAT'S DEGARMO'S MUSIC!!! HE'S BACK!!! THE PRODIGAL SON IS BACK!!!

This is seriously the most exciting thing to happen in my life all month BTW.

I've been here, just posted a bit less of late. I appreciate it though

You know you guys who are sure Miami will fail should put money on this.

Anyway both players and coaches rave about both Brice and Bobby McCain. Jamar Taylor was playing extremely well until he got hurt. Reshad Jones had a very good year. Now I do expect Delmas to get hurt yet again but I'm really liking what I've been reading about both Thomas and Aikens. A healthy Jenkins and Misi will be just fine and I love McCain at strong side and as the joker.
Also just the fact that Jimmy Wilson is not on the team gives me a chubby. Wilson's unsportsmanlike conduct penalties against Denver led to 10 POINTS. Oh and now we have the best defensive tackle in the game who not only brings talent, he brings a nasty attitude that will be contagious. So yeah, I'll take this D.

Don't mistake this for overall optimism though. I still say the OL will be a disaster and lead to another 8-8 season.

I'm personally really happy with a lot of what's going on with the Dolphins, but I'm one of those old-schoolers that believe it all starts and ends with the O-line and the QB on offense. I mean, it sounds simple, but we have not been able to put together a reliable line now for quite a long time.