Miller and short yardage

by mercury22nathan Wed Aug 19, 2015 9:57 am

http://www.sun-sentinel.com/sports/dave-hyde-blog/sfl-hyde5-stats-where-lamar-miller-excels-and-needs-to-improve-20150819-story.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+DaveHyde-blog+%28Dave+Hyde+|+Sun+Sentinel+blogs%29

amar Miller became a great asset for the Dolphins, as we saw last year. Football Outsiders ranked his production as the fourth best for a running back behind DeMarco Murray, Marshawn Lynch and Jamaal Charles. But how to best use him? And what can he improve on? Here are three telling stats:

* When the Dolphins had a three-receiver formation, Miller averaged a staggering 6.1 yards a carry, via Football Outsiders. The three-receivers formation demands a nickle defense package, which means one less linebacker and gives space to run. Getting Miller in space is the goal considering his speed. Expect to see that formation more this year.

* This is what is meant by a player being used properly: Miller ran 81 percent of his snaps out of the shot gun last year rather than 41 percent in 2013. He's clearly comfortable running out of the shotgun and Bill Lazor saw that in his first season. Again, expect a heavy dose of Miller running from the shotgun.

* Miller (and the offensive line) isn't as good as running short-yardage as they've been credited this off-season. Miller ran 17 times on third or fourth down and "short" according to proreference.com, which it defines as three yards or less for a first down. He got 12 first downs out of them. That's pretty good. Cut it to third-or-fourth and short and two yards, and Miller was 11-for-14. Very good, right?

The problem is, that stat doesn't factor in the number of times Lazor wasn't comfortable with running Miller in short-yardage situation. You can see that level by seeing Tannehill threw 38 times - more than double Miller ran - on third-or-fourth and short, according to proreference.com. Twenty-four of those went for first downs. Tannehill ran another three times for a first down in those situations.

FootballOutsiders stats show teams are statistically more effective running the football than passing it on short-yardage situations. Yet the Dolphins went against that for a reason - namely, they don't have an offense built for short-yardage running. This a concern for the Dolphins again as they don't have an offensive line or a runner suited to that.

are the Phins out-thinking themselves for not using Miller more in short yardage? or is the sample size too small - if they used him more, his limitations would be realized? perhaps its their reluctance to use him in shortage that catches teams off guard when they do use him that leads to his success.

by **JMP** Wed Aug 19, 2015 10:12 am

Keep in mind that Miller didn't get a lot of carries last year. In fact, he averaged just 13.5 attempts per game. And if you take out the last 3 games, where Miller's workload increased, it goes down to just 12.5 carries a game. I think that was a major mistake, and I hated the way Lazor handled him. Anyway, that could help explain why Miller got so few short-yardage carries...he simply didn't get a lot of carries, period - regardless of situation.

I'd love to see Miller become a focal point of the offense this season - take some pressure off of Tannehill.

by DolFan 316 Wed Aug 19, 2015 6:04 pm

Philbin hates Miller because he isn't the best pass blocking RB in the league, or something. The only reason Miller even starts is because there's literally nobody else (same reason Landry played last season) and still the Fins drafted another RB while completely ignoring the gaping hole at LB and only giving a cursory nod to the other gaping hole at O-line. Why? Because Philbin hates Miller. I guess he thinks he can just plug in any old bum and get a thousand yards and 5 yards a carry behind that All-Pro in the making Dallas Thomas Rolling Eyes

by CarsonChris Wed Aug 19, 2015 6:36 pm

I read Thomas looked a lot better in practice against the Panthers than jamil Douglas

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