Tank or Not?

I wanted to write this up because I still think the beat writers - and many fans - are looking at this all wrong.

Are we "tanking for Tua"? Are we INTENTIONALLY teeing up a poor roster just to lose as many games as possible in 2019, and ensure we get the overall #1 pick in 2020?

No. Here's why.

Xavien Howard. By far our most valuable asset behind Tunsil. If we were truly tanking on purpose, we would have traded him away. He's easily worth a first round pick and probably more. For that matter, what's Reshad Jones still doing here? Good, aging, expensive, why not just cut him?

The players released all make sense for one reason or another, let's recap. Tannehill had more than his share of chances and Grier / Flores decided they'd seen enough, traded to Tenn. Wake is way too old to play on a squad that needs this much work. Quinn was an underachiever, did not fit this scheme and is another veteran older than we want on defense.

Alonso was supplanted by Baker as the QB of our defense, as Baker is now poised to serve as an every down linebacker. Equaven the other regular starter, and now I've read that McMillan may come onto the field in traditional 4-3 looks, we will have to see how that plays out. Alonso was not only a poor fit, he was expensive too. Traded for a LB that better fits our scheme and a need - Biegel is a pass rusher traditionally suited for the 3-4.

TJ McDonald was not only expensive, his skill set matches Jones. If you keep him, you need to release one of the young safeties currently on the 53 man roster. It makes sense to move on.

Our "best receiver" last year was Kenny Stills? LOL! So what? He's been just below average for us for years now. Amendola? Another old vet that doesn't fit on a rebuilding squad. Moving on from players like this is not even a tough decision, the only work is trying to get something valuable in return.

Tunsil is the biggest and most visible move. I think there are several factors at play. The front office / staff sure did like him alot. Clearly, they were not willing to pay him long-term, and in the year we are projected to contend with a totally rebuilt roster. Tua is left handed, so if that's the plan, LT is not on his blind side. Finally, I don't think Tunsil was quite physical enough in the running game, nor was he consistent enough play to play. I'm not saying he was bad. I'm saying all of these things combined, versus the draft haul Houston offered up, makes sense in what the team did.

Allen is recovering from a knee surgery, but surely could help us later in the year. The problem? We wanted to keep Myarick, and we have two more second year guys that the team feels warrant more investment. If you keep Allen, somebody has to go.

So here we are. Our roster is something like 25% rookies (many of which were undrafted) and filled out with a lot of question marks, unknowns and potential.

Are we tanking? I repeat myself, no. Instead, the roster is a BYPRODUCT of the method the front office is using to rebuild this roster. AS A CONSEQUENCE, yes we will field a team in 2019 filled with unproven, mistake prone, inexperienced players with precious few proven veterans. The ones I can think of are mostly on defense, Baker, Fitzpatrick, Jones, Howard, and McCain should all play well, and Rowe will be fine opposite Howard until he gets hurt (he usually does). Wilkins, Taylor, Godchaux and Anderson are all solid on the line, and I expect Ledbetter to play the run well.

On offense, Fitzpatrick and his leadership ability will be counted on to keep the players from outright panic. They are going to be outmatched and playoff caliber teams will destroy us on that side of the ball. If - IF - we can get the line to improve over time, maybe they start to gel weeks 9-16. But that's a big if, and with Tunsil gone it's only that much harder.

So if we aren't tanking, then what's happening? This is what I think. Grier and Flores laid out their blue print for how they want to build a team. If they could start from a blank canvas, which we have at this point. In my opinion, their analysis determined that most of the roster from last season does not match the vision for this team. So, they started with the easy moves first, then progressed as the opportunity presented itself later in the offseason. Tunsil, Stills and Alonso trades may not be the last move, but Jones contract makes him hard to trade, so we are probably about done. More likely we see some bottom of the roster churn as we comb through the cuts made yesterday.

This is the correct approach when you have no franchise QB, and a roster full of guys that don't fit your vision for the team. Omar Kelly writes "they are paying McDonald not to play and he could have helped!" Helped in what way? Again, if you keep him, you're cutting a guy you may want to invest more time in, fits the team better, and may fill an ideal role somewhere in the future. Why keep Stills when IMO Wilson and Grant are better weapons if you're looking for speed, and guys build like Hurns/Williams are better complements - big and physical.

Howard fits, and so does Grant. That's why we just offered them contracts long term. These are players we want as we build the squad, because they match the skills we are looking for at these positions.

All the "Tank for Tua" guys are reveling right now, thinking they have been proven right. Not what I'm seeing. I'm seeing a front office that has determined how these players fit (and don't fit). They are unafraid to dump proven talent if the players aren't part of the long term plan. This, combined with an extreme focus on future draft assets has brought us to this point. As a consequence, yes we will be bad in 2019. Most likely very bad. But this is what it looks like to BELIEVE in an approach, without worrying about the short term results.

I think we are looking at changing the culture. Men who don’t or won’t conform will be gone. Trouble makers are getting cut

Agree Chris and one more point to add, sorry for the length of the post above I know it's a novel.

Clearly, Grier did not agree with many of the acquisitions made over the past several years. Trading for Stills, trading for Alonso, signing McDonald are three examples I can think of. If Grier were behind these moves we would have kept those players. He's rebuilding the roster as he wants it. Flores is on the same page, that was done during the interview process.

Front office taking the long term view. It has been a long, long while. I'd daresay it hasn't happened since Jimmy Johnson's first season.

Davenport: Not highly rated last season by PFF, but then again, Tunsil wasn't in the top 30 there. It was Davenport's first season as a starter, and he played college ball at Bucknell. Liked him a lot as a long-term middle round prospect in the 2017 draft, and he appears to have some upside. Texans are feeling the heat and needed to upgrade immediately, so we reap the benefit. I would not overlook getting Davenport back in this trade, he is a solid prospect who has the potential to do what Wade Smith did after we let him go IMO, which was become a solid starter for several seasons. Smith was thrown into the fray long before he was ready due to Wannstedt's inability to plan ahead here. He flourished once he got a change of scenery.

7 undrafted FA's make the team: Williams needs seasoning, but letting Stills go gets him onto the field some. Calhoun appears to be a steal, but he will have a rough go of it as a rookie starter. Fine long-term prospect though. I expected both Ledbetter and Hanks to get drafted (Williams too) and am not surprised to see them make the team.

I don't see 0-16 coming like Dave Hyde (hyperbole, much?). I expect 3-13 or even 4-12, it is going to get rough, but not historically bad. Every trade or cut makes sense.

Oh, and I no longer feel quite so bad about Jerome Baker over Mason Rudolph...

Excellent post, white.

I don't think the team is intentionally tanking. I've said all along, this offseason was all about cleaning up the absolutely horrid mess that Tannenbaum and Gase had made of the team. That meant dumping bad contracts and eating tons of dead money in order to start over. This is a true rebuild, something I've wanted for a long time but never thought I'd actually see. We now have a front office and coaching staff that share a vision, and have an actual plan in place.

As for the regular season, the cap purge and roster makeover means that it's going to be a rough season in the win-loss column. The goal is to get the systems/schemes in place, and develop some of these younger players to see what we actually have and what we really need to focus on next offseason.

And that's the key to this entire plan: next offseason. We'll have tons of cap space and a boatload of picks in the first 4 rounds. We have enormous flexibility to do essentially anything we want to do in terms of player acquisition: free agency, trades, draft - it's all on the table. This is how you build a perennial contender in today's NFL, by not backing yourself into a corner with bad contracts and keeping all your options open. Obviously, you still have to add the right players or it's all meaningless. But judging by what we've seen so far, the team of Grier/Allen/McKenize are smart, creative and willing to do whatever it takes.

Long story short: again, it's not an intentional tank. But it will be a tank. And the end result is, we'll be able to get our franchise QB next offseason. And really, that's ALL that matters.

So I urge all of you: don't worry about 2019. This season is essentially a throwaway - it's a restart that puts us in position to build a champion next season and beyond.

The release today of Vincent Taylor only underscores my opinion.

He’s played pretty well, young, still on his rookie deal cheap. He doesn’t fit the scheme unfortunately. He’s a one gap penetrator and this staff is coaching to find a man and knock him back to let the linebackers attack and cleanup.

Excellent post, W1. And some thought provoking comments from the other posters too.

I don't know if the "plan" all along was to "tank". My only concern is the O-line. It would be hard to imagine a plan to tank that DID NOT INCLUDE assembling an O-line sorta like the one we have now!

I was thinking they were using the Pats approach to the O-line, get some journeymen and train them into one well-oiled, cooperative unit that synthesizes into more than the sum of their parts.

But that seems like it did not work, so...NOW...in the light that the O-line is gonna "stank mightily" we can trade Tunsil and go fullbore DEVELOPMENTAL SEASON. The trade for the O-line prospects with developmental potential fits in with that.

All in all...so far...I have not seen anything from Grier that I disagree with. Which is scary. I know we all like to think we could do it better than the pros, but when they do make the decisions like you would make...it might prove you don't know what you are doing either!!!



In any event, it is about time SOMEBODY had the guts to take a different approach. Even though I know this season is gonna be tough, I am excited for the future of the Phins.

Hal and FF sum it up very well:

Hal: Front office taking the long term view
and
FF: it is about time SOMEBODY had the guts to take a different approach

We've been putting this team together to "win now" forever, and it never worked because we were never actually that close. Now, we have a sustainable plan that is based on building the team for the long haul, and it is a completely different approach that no one has ever attempted with this franchise. Personally, I love it - even though it means we'll suffer short-term.

The last thing I want to see is a repeat of the 2011 season, when the team started out actively tanking to get Sparano fired, then when he wasn't fired and the Suck For Luck talk started they suddenly began trying out of sheer spite, and then Sparano was fired before the season's end anyway--after getting an extension that offseason, and they picked 10th or so in the draft after starting 0-7 and missed out on Luck completely! No, I don't want any of that foolishness again

Everyone is focusing on Tanking for Tua, but a few more games like Sunday night's and we may change our tune to Failin' for Jalen. :-)

HalCHorn wrote:Everyone is focusing on Tanking for Tua, but a few more games like Sunday night's and we may change our tune to Failin' for Jalen.  :-)

LOL Jalen was originally going to transfer to Miami...I would've loved that.  But I doubt he'd have the success there that he'll likely have in Oklahoma...he looks like a perfect fit for that offense.

Y'all know my feelings.  I'd stockpile picks to trade up for Trevor Lawrence in 2021.  That will never happen, because if we're terrible two years in a row, it'll be new coach time.