Article about Phins starting off slow under Philbin

Since coming to town in 2012, in 48 games played by the Dolphins (no playoff trips) they have led after the first quarter in just 12 games (25%).  NO TEAM has done worse.  Even the lowly Titans and Jets have led after one quarter in 13 games, and the Raiders have done it in 14.  Hell, even the Jaguars have led after one quarter in 17 games since 2012.

Getting off to a good start is key in football.  Since 2012, teams who lead after 1 quarter win 66% of their games.

So while they might not be getting “manhandled” in 1 quarter, they routinely are NOT leading, which is a problem.

Its not their only problem.  On 3rd and short, the Dolphins converted 70% of their runs into first downs, 11th best in the NFL.  The problem was they passed on 52% of their play calls, 9th most often, and they converted just 55% of their pass attempts.  So they missed out on 15% better efficiency by simply not running enough on 3rd and short.

It gets even worse when considering the field position.  Last year in opponent’s territory (on the other side of midfield) the Dolphins had 27 plays on 3rd and 1-2 yards.  These are VITAL downs, and can be the difference between 0 and 3 points (if closer to midfield) or 3 and 7 points (if closer to the red zone).  Only 3 teams had MORE of these play calls, meaning they were big difference makers for the Dolphins in 2014.

On these plays, the NFL average was 57% run, 43% pass.  Yet on these plays, Philbin had the Dolphins call 15 passes and 12 runs, or 56% pass and 44% run, flipping the ratio.  On the 15 pass plays, the Dolphins gained only 7 first downs (47%).  On the 12 run plays, the Dolphins gained 8 first downs (67%).

Consider the Dolphins finished 8-8 last year, and lost multiple games by 4 or fewer points, and you can see why this makes a difference, as it could potentially cost between 3 and 4 points per 3rd down play.

dating back to 2012, ignoring home Thursday games (huge edge to home team), the Dolphins have won just 2 of 12 games when  they did not lead after the 1st quarter if their opponent was at or above .500.

Triumph wrote:What a article.  Does Miami have a analytics guy?  Because he should be fired and Miami should hire this guy.

Recently, Joe Philbin was quoted as saying:

“I came here to win championships. I didn’t come here to be average and be 8-8. Steve Ross doesn’t own the team to be average. Our fans don’t want to be average. Our players don’t want to be average. So that’s what we’re here for. That’s why we invest and put the effort, the time into what we do.

Weeks 8-11 they have the 6th hardest 4-game-stretch of any team in the NFL: @ NE, @ BUF, @ PHI and then vs DAL. Three straight road games followed by the game vs Dallas.

Weeks 13-17 they have the 4th hardest 5-game-stretch of any team in the NFL: BAL, NYG, @ SD, IND, NE. The only benefit is that 4 of the 5 are at home. I’m sure the Dolphins would rather host those teams in the brutal September heat than in the winter, however.

DolFan 316 wrote:We'll still need to have a talk about why he hangs out on the other side of the tracks at Finheaven, though...