Am I wrong or is it leading to...PITTS!

The Phins just signed Hollins to go along with a bewildering assortment of WRs.

Everybody seems to think they are going WR at #3, but....

Unless they are just covering their bases, or are looking at Sewell if they are unable to engineer a trade down, I am thinking that
TE Kyle Pitts may be the pick!!!

After watching what Darren Waller of the Raiduhs did to the Phins D, they SHOULD BE looking that way at #3 IMO.

And as JMP pointed out, Gesickis contract is up in the next few years, so...

Pitts MIGHT be the most impactful pick on offense IMO.

I just am having a hard time seeing this Phins brain trust going TE at #3 overall?

What say the rest of you draft prognosticators?

Personally, I would be thrilled with Pitts. Adding him to the offense creates a mismatch nightmare for the defense, and only adds to the threat provided by Fuller, Parker and Gesicki. Not to mention the threat of getting a speedster like Grant or Wilson open in space.

I would run two tight end sets all day using a mix of Pitts, Gesicki, Smythe and Shaheen. Power running, play action and RPO out of sets that look identical making the defense guess.

Pitts IMO is unique in that he creates a real problem not only in the red zone, but between the 20s also. Plus, he has the size to become a very good blocker just needs work on technique. Did I mention he ran a 4.46 at his pro day? At this size?!?

In short - yes I'm all in for Pitts. Would LOVE to trade down and still get him, but I'd be fine staying put and avoiding the risk he gets snapped up. Some mocks have him going before Chase, or right after.

My second choice would be either Sewell or Slater. Third choice Chase.

I think there's almost zero chance the Phins will stay at 3. I absolutely believe they will trade down.

I also can't imagine any scenario where I would feel comfortable picking a TE at #3 overall. I just don't see the value in the position at that spot.

I will agree trading down - especially with this years QB class - is the way to maximize the value of the pick.

I’ll revise to say trading down but remaining in top 10 is my top choice. If we can still land Pitts all the better!

TEs in my opinion are only becoming more valuable. Vernon Davis and Winslow went 6 overall I think. Pitts going at 3 given scouting projections would not be unheard of. Plus the talent gap between Pitts and the next TE is huge. At receiver, I can all but guarantee a player taken later in the draft will outperform one or more first rounders. That’s why Chase is my least favorite option. I’d take a defender if there was one worth having alas no Garrett or Chase Young this year...

Here is a list of all TEs drafted in the first round since 2000:
http://www.drafthistory.com/index.php/positions/te

2020 – none
2019 – TJ Hockenson (# eight), Noah Fant (#20)
2018 - Hayden Hurst (#25)
2017 – O.J. Howard (#19), Evan Engram (#23), David Njoku (#29)
2016 – none
2015 – none
2014 – Eric Ebron (#10)
2013 - Tyler Eifert (#21)
2012 – none
2011 – none
2010 - Jermaine Gresham (#21)
2009 - Brandon Pettigrew (#20)
2008 - Dustin Keller (#30)
2007 - Greg Olsen (#31)
2006 – Vernon Davis (#6), Marcedes Lewis (#28)
2005 - Heath Miller (#30)
2004 - Kellen Winslow Jr. (#6), Ben Watson (#32)
2003 - Dallas Clark (#24)
2002 – Jeremy Shockey (#14), Dan Graham (#21), Jerramy Stevens (#28)
2001 – Todd Heap (#31)
2000 – Bubba Franks (#14), Anthony Becht (#27)

It's a pretty discouraging and disheartening list overall.  

No TE has ever been drafted top 3.  Here’s where the 3 best current TEs were drafted:
Travis Kelce – round 3
Darren Waller – round 6 (WR in college)
George Kittle – round 5

Now, I understand that every player and every situation are different.  I also understand that TE value has increased - or, at least, it's increased if you have one of the handful of good TEs.  But is Kyle Pitts so special that he deserves to be drafted higher than any TE in league history?  I don't know.  I thought Winslow Jr. and Howard were going to be outstanding NFL TEs, and they were borderline busts.  

Pitts is really a WR - he doesn't have a huge frame despite his height, and he isn't a particularly strong blocker.  Sure, he can be a matchup nightmare, but is he even an upgrade over Gesicki? Again, I don't know. Gesicki might have the best hands of any current NFL TE.

I'm not against Pitts, I just don't see him as the best option at the top of the draft.  If I look at receiving options in this class, I'd put him at #3, behind Smith and Waddle.

On another note, I'm becoming less of a Jamarr Chase fan by the day.  He's just too inexperienced and I don't see anything special in his game.  I'll take Smith and Waddle over him any day.

I am in agreement with Jmp on this. For once

(BTW I love the new emoji list, it's what I use for almost everything else.)

Hey, we agree on some things...sometimes...every now and then...

At #3 I'm not sold on anyone on our list unless there's a QB that projects better than Tua. I'd love to see 2 first round picks battle it out to see who starts.

Penei Sewell allows Miami to shift its line. Push Hunt inside to guard. That would be a 2 for 1 upgrade.

CarsonChris wrote:At #3 I'm not sold on anyone on our list unless there's a QB that projects better than Tua. I'd love to see 2 first round picks battle it out to see who starts.

Penei Sewell allows Miami to shift its line. Push Hunt inside to guard. That would be a 2 for 1 upgrade.

Yeah, that's the thing: we have the #3 pick in a year where the draft class is not top-heavy at all. There is no clear-cut consensus "must have" player at 3.

I can certainly see the argument for Sewell if we do stay at 3, but drafting another first round lineman just seems like such a "meh" move - even if it does help the offense.

I can certainly see the argument for Sewell if we do stay at 3, but drafting another first round lineman just seems like such a "meh" move - even if it does help the offense.

Yeah I get it, not flashy. But sometimes that's the right move. Remember, the Rams had Bruce, Faulk and Warner before they caught fire and became the "Greatest Show on Turf".

What got them over the top? They drafted Orlando Pace.

Grier overdrafts Jackson, a second round talent last year.. Penei is an upgrade. Tua needs better protection.

Jackson was almost universally considered a first round talent and top 5 OT based on upside. As one of the youngest players in the draft, it was assumed that he would need time to develop into a true "stud" LT, but there was no question about his talent and skillset. Value-wise, he was drafted right where he was supposed to be, at #18 overall and the fifth OT taken. Calling him a second round talent is completely off-base and inaccurate.

white1 wrote:

I can certainly see the argument for Sewell if we do stay at 3, but drafting another first round lineman just seems like such a "meh" move - even if it does help the offense.

Yeah I get it, not flashy.  But sometimes that's the right move.  Remember, the Rams had Bruce, Faulk and Warner before they caught fire and became the "Greatest Show on Turf".  

What got them over the top? They drafted Orlando Pace.

Actually only Bruce was there before Pace. Pace was Dick Vermeil's first draft pick in 1997. He added Faulk and Trent Green via trade before 1999. Warner was the lucky beneficiary of Green's season ending injury in '99 preseason.

But the point that the greatest show on turf needed Pace to succeed is a good one.

Regarding last year's O line picks: they almost certainly will be better this year.  No one expected Jackson, Hunt and Kindley to set the world on fire right away.  IMO this line will be much better this season even if no one is added.

That said, we need a center badly.  That position must be addressed, fortunately it's a good class for C on Day Two.

Regarding the WR's it is a deep class. There will be good eventual starters well into Day 3. I do think Smith, Waddle and Chase are a cut above the others. I like Marshall the best of the rest. Pitts is head and shoulders above the rest of the TE's.

They're all in play at 3, but I suspect we will get a very good deal to trade down. I think we have more than one first round pick again in 2022.

Totally agree on Center. We have Skura as a stop gap - perfect opportunity IMO to get the Center from ALA who is hurt right now. Good value he will go lower than talent dictates because he probably isn't playing this year. But we will have him at 100 percent for 2022 season allowing Skura to walk.

I think Pitts is gonna be special. Special enough to take at #3? Maybe?

When he was in the lineup at Fla this year, the offense was exponentially better. Pitts attracted so much attention from the DBs, there were guys open everywhere! And it seems at times, Trask KNEW who was going one open BEFORE the play?

And I do not know how many passes I saw Pitts catch when he was covered by two guys? I was really surprised Trask threw some of those passes, but... I guess he trusted Pitts.

Anyway... I suspect if they stay put, it is going to be hard not to take Sewell or Chase. Just because... GMs can get fired for going against the NFL Draft orthodoxy. Grier drafts Pitts and Sewell becomes a HOFer or Chase, Smith or Waddle set the league on fire and suddenly Ross is looking at Grier like Huizenga came to look at Wannstedt after he drafted a 5th round LB in the 2nd round!

We have to HOPE the Jets decide to stand pat with Darnold and they draft Sewell at #2. I do not think they will do that, but...

If the Phins are sitting at #3 with QBs Wilson, Fields, and Lance still on the board, they may be able to trade down a couple of times and still stay in the top ten. Garner a few picks next year and pick up an additional 2nd or 3rd this year as well.

I was sorta of leery about last year's picks and was not really all that excited about them, but like Hal, I think the O-line picks are going to take a HUGE STEP forward this year. Picking those lunch pail, blue collar guys is fairly easy in the draft IMHO. But when it comes time to pick the most IMPACTFUL player, or the player that can take your offense or defense, to that next level; THAT is what separates the wheat from he chaff IMO.

I am not sure Grier is looking for the wheat yet, or whether he is focused on getting some better chaff.

This draft will tell us that I am thinking.

I'd be shocked if they take Chase at #3. That would be a major reach...a receiver that played just one full season of football and hasn't seen the field in almost a year and a half? To me, he's not close to being the top receiver in this class, so that would be a major fail IMO.

As for Pitts, like I said - I'm not convinced that he's any better than Gesicki. I wouldn't take Gesicki at 3, and I'm certainly not taking Pitts at 3. Pitts reminds me a lot of Noah Fant...nice player, mismatch against most safeties and LBs, but not a special player. When you're talking about drafting a guy higher than any player in league history at his position, he better be special.

I feel like Miami's Brevin Jordan can do a lot of the things Pitts does, in the proper system and with the proper coaching. Jordan is shorter than ideal, but he's an above average blocker and a big-time receiving threat - and he's probably a day 3 pick. That's how it is with TEs...seems like every year, the better ones are the guys that were drafted later.

Okay, FF is starting to sway me to his side of the fence now. Hard to argue with someone who saw Pitts play repeatedly.

I think the real issue is the belief that no player's worth taking at the #3 spot but maybe at the #10 spot that same player would be okay. Besides discounting the real possibility that trading down too far will see who the Fins (and some of us) want snatched up before their pick, *somebody* has to be selected #3 overall in a draft. You can't just have every team in the league pass because that's just too high to take anyone. If the player selected at #10 or whatever turns out to be a bust I fail to see how that's so much better than if they'd taken that same player #3. It would be nice to trade down and still get a player we all agree is a good pick don't get me wrong, but what if that guy is taken in between #3 and wherever they trade down to? What if they trade out of the top 10 altogether and ALL of the players various posters here want have been picked? Surely that's not better than just going ahead and taking the guy they want at 3, is it?

And no Jmp, I'm not suddenly advocating for Pitts at #3 or nobody. I totally see your point about highly drafted TEs. My point is if whoever is selected works out it doesn't really matter if he was taken at #3 or several spots later and if he's a bust then he'd have been a bust no matter where he was taken anyway. I do think it's 95% certain Grier trades down just because the Watson Incident takes him off the table and means a team like the Panthers will offer even more to trade up than they would have before.

finfanatic wrote:I was sorta of leery about last year's picks and was not really all that excited about them, but like Hal, I think the O-line picks are going to take a HUGE STEP forward this year. Picking those lunch pail, blue collar guys is fairly easy in the draft IMHO. But when it comes time to pick the most IMPACTFUL player, or the player that can take your offense or defense, to that next level; THAT is what separates the wheat from he chaff IMO.

I am not sure Grier is looking for the wheat yet, or whether he is focused on getting some better chaff.

This draft will tell us that I am thinking.

That's another reason I'm growing disenchanted with Grier. Way too much chaff and hardly any wheat. He's got too much draft capital (and could easily get even more) to come away with another sparse harvest.

I just wanted to pop this item in here because I think it's worth stating.

If you get a guy that's valued, at the time, to be a first rounder, and he turns out to be less talented than that, then regardless of where he was valued at the time, you fucked up, and he's worth exactly what he gives you now.

So, it's like saying that it's okay to have drafted Brady Quinn because he was projected as a first rounder. He was a sack of shit, so his valuation on draft day was only a bunch of people who had no idea what they were talking about, making terrible decisions.

This all goes in reverse as well, but you rarely hear anyone say, "Listen, I know Brady's a Top 3 generational talent, but he was projected in the Nth round, so that's where he belonged." That's kind of nonsense. If a guy gets taken early, even if he's touted as being the next great thing, it's his translation to the next level that shows the draft efficacy, not that the team did what was perceived to be the right move at the time.

And Pitts is an interesting prospect. Perhaps we can get him mid 1st.

DolFan 316 wrote:
That's another reason I'm growing disenchanted with Grier. Way too much chaff and hardly any wheat. He's got too much draft capital (and could easily get even more) to come away with another sparse harvest.

The farmers of Kansas approve of this analogy.

Grier has a history of overdrafting a player. I expect a punter since we lost ours in the off season!

CarsonChris wrote:Grier has a history of overdrafting a player. I expect a punter since we lost ours in the off season!

Yes, absolutely, overdrafting happened in nearly every round when Tannenabum was calling the shots. But I don't think Grier has overdrafted at all - nothing truly egregious, anyway - since Flores became head coach.

We did sign a punter, so all good there! LOL But you never know...it is a one year deal, we could go punter in the 7th!

DolFan 316 wrote:Okay, FF is starting to sway me to his side of the fence now. Hard to argue with someone who saw Pitts play repeatedly.

I think the real issue is the belief that no player's worth taking at the #3 spot but maybe at the #10 spot that same player would be okay. Besides discounting the real possibility that trading down too far will see who the Fins (and some of us) want snatched up before their pick, *somebody* has to be selected #3 overall in a draft. You can't just have every team in the league pass because that's just too high to take anyone. If the player selected at #10 or whatever turns out to be a bust I fail to see how that's so much better than if they'd taken that same player #3. It would be nice to trade down and still get a player we all agree is a good pick don't get me wrong, but what if that guy is taken in between #3 and wherever they trade down to? What if they trade out of the top 10 altogether and ALL of the players various posters here want have been picked? Surely that's not better than just going ahead and taking the guy they want at 3, is it?

And no Jmp, I'm not suddenly advocating for Pitts at #3 or nobody. I totally see your point about highly drafted TEs. My point is if whoever is selected works out it doesn't really matter if he was taken at #3 or several spots later and if he's a bust then he'd have been a bust no matter where he was taken anyway. I do think it's 95% certain Grier trades down just because the Watson Incident takes him off the table and means a team like the Panthers will offer even more to trade up than they would have before.

I agree with this, but again - TEs simply aren't valued as highly as WRs. And there's a reason for that. There are not more than 3 superstar TEs in the entire sport right now, but there are a bunch of stud WRs - almost every team has a rue #1 wide receiver these days. You are more likely to hit on a WR than a TE, that's just the way it is. Pitts might become the next Travis Kelce...but the chances are slim, given past history of the position. I know that each player should be judged individually, but at some point you have to learn from history - and history shows that top TEs are not found in the top 5 of the draft.

Degarmo wrote:I just wanted to pop this item in here because I think it's worth stating.

If you get a guy that's valued, at the time, to be a first rounder, and he turns out to be less talented than that, then regardless of where he was valued at the time, you fucked up, and he's worth exactly what he gives you now.

So, it's like saying that it's okay to have drafted Brady Quinn because he was projected as a first rounder.  He was a sack of shit, so his valuation on draft day was only a bunch of people who had no idea what they were talking about, making terrible decisions.  

This all goes in reverse as well, but you rarely hear anyone say, "Listen, I know Brady's a Top 3 generational talent, but he was projected in the Nth round, so that's where he belonged."  That's kind of nonsense.  If a guy gets taken early, even if he's touted as being the next great thing, it's his translation to the next level that shows the draft efficacy, not that the team did what was perceived to be the right move at the time.

And Pitts is an interesting prospect.  Perhaps we can get him mid 1st.

You're absolutely right. It goes with the Jimmy Johnson quote that I always like to repeat: every draft class is great...if you draft the right players. SO, it doesn't matter when you select good players...just make sure you get them!