Am I wrong or is it leading to...PITTS!

Yeah, JMP is saying exactly what I meant about NFL Draft Orthodoxy... You just don't draft TEs that highly. And if you do, and it doesn't work out, you have ruined your NFL GM Rep.

If Grier drafts Sewell and Sewell is bust, so be it. Grier stuck with the NFL Draft Orthodoxy and all is well.

Same if he drafts Chase and he is just a so-so WR. Orthodoxy uber alles!

What I want is a GM who drafts for IMPACT. Is that Pitts? I think there is a chance it could be. It might be one of the CBs as well. Surtain looks like he is gonna be better than his father IMO.

Anyway, I hope the Phins are able to trade down, acquire some picks for next year, and still get an impactful player or two. Be it Pitts, Smith, Harris, Rousseau or Paye, Julari....

Just draft somebody we can argue should be in the running for Offensive or Defensive Rookie of the year!!! PLEASE!!!

Wouldn't hurt if Grier managed to get BOTH in this draft!!!

finfanatic wrote:Yeah, JMP is saying exactly what I meant about NFL Draft Orthodoxy... You just don't draft TEs that highly.  And if you do, and it doesn't work out, you have ruined your NFL GM Rep.

If Grier drafts Sewell and Sewell is bust, so be it. Grier stuck with the NFL Draft Orthodoxy and all is well.

Same if he drafts Chase and he is just a so-so WR. Orthodoxy uber alles!

What I want is a GM who drafts for IMPACT. Is that Pitts?  I think there is a chance it could be. It might be one of the CBs as well. Surtain looks like he is gonna be better than his father IMO.

Anyway, I hope the Phins are able to trade down, acquire some picks for next year, and still get an impactful player or two. Be it Pitts, Smith, Harris, Rousseau or Paye, Julari....

Just draft somebody we can argue should be in the running for Offensive or Defensive Rookie of the year!!! PLEASE!!!

Wouldn't hurt if Grier managed to get BOTH in this draft!!!

Well, it's a fine line. There's a reason that the orthodoxy exists: it's tried and true. Look at the list of first round TEs I posted...it paints a pretty clear picture of why no TE has ever been drafted in the top 3. But yes - IMPACT should be the goal when you are picking at the top of the draft.

And of course, we all hope we get rookie of the year candidates!

I've said several times that the biggest issue with Pitts IMO is the Dolphins' plans for Gesicki. It really makes no sense at all to draft Pitts if Gesicki is in the Dolphins' long-term plans. But of course, that's something we can't know. But I do know this: if the Phins draft Pitts, I'd expect Gesicki to be traded before the 2021 trading deadline.

Finfinatic has a point with Surtain. I'd take that kid at 6 for sure. Why? Xavien Howard has turned into a complaining little bitch and his days in Miami are numbered. If it's not Surtain then Parsons so he can beat the crap out of Howard. He has a thing for doing that to CB's.

I'm also good with Pitts, Parsons, or Penei.

CarsonChris wrote:Finfinatic has a point with Surtain. I'd take that kid at 6 for sure. Why? Xavien  Howard has turned into a complaining little bitch and his days in Miami are numbered.  If it's not Surtain then Parsons so he can beat the crap out of Howard. He has a thing for doing that to CB's.

I'm also good with Pitts, Parsons, or Penei.

Surtain at 6 is interesting. Helluva player.

CarsonChris wrote:Finfinatic has a point with Surtain. I'd take that kid at 6 for sure. Why? Xavien  Howard has turned into a complaining little bitch and his days in Miami are numbered.  If it's not Surtain then Parsons so he can beat the crap out of Howard. He has a thing for doing that to CB's.

I'm also good with Pitts, Parsons, or Penei.

So anybody whose last name starts with P? Odd fetish you have but I'm not here to judge

If the first pick really IS Surtain my head won't need Merc's help to explode.

JMP wrote:I think there's almost zero chance the Phins will stay at 3.  I absolutely believe they will trade down.

Let the record show that Jmp called this before it happened. Every now and then, he becomes a psychic (how he was so sure the Fins would beat the Bears in '06 I'll never figure out).

ALSO...the highest drafted TEs in NFL history are Mike Ditka in '61 and Riley Odoms in '72, both at #5 overall. Ditka ended up with the most receptions, yards and TDs of anyone in his class (then again it turned out to be a historically lousy class for WRs so that has to be considered). Odoms was 3rd in the '72 class in all three categories.

But if you want to have more recent data regarding highly drafted TEs, Vernon Davis (#6 overall in '06) was also third in that class in receptions (behind Brandon Marshall and Marques Colston) and 4th in yards and TDs (behind Marshall, Colston and Greg Jennings). The other #6 overall TE this century (Kellen Winslow Jr. '04) was actually 4th in that class in receptions, but 6th in yards and TDs. Ben Watson, who the Pats took at #32, was 2nd, 3rd and 2nd in all three categories (that class in terms of WR was Larry Fitzgerald and a bunch of scrubs).

Now obviously the cream of the crop, tippity top TEs like Gonzales and Witten are outliers, but my post is about showing where in their respective draft classes the historically high drafted TEs fared. It looks like the absolute best case scenario for Pitts is to finish third in his class in receptions, yards and TDs behind two WRs, and looking at how deep the WR crop is this year that seems about right. Even Gonzales and Witten are the only two TEs among the top 16 receptions leaders in NFL history (undrafted Antonio Gates is 17th).

Just food for thought

Interesting stuff thx DF.

Yesterday I read Mando worrying about the top 5 picks being 3 QBs, then Pitts, and then Chase. That's fine. I would run to the podium in order to select Sewell. But I don't believe Cincy passes on Sewell, they need to get their young QB protection. Some evaluators have him as the best prospect in the draft at any position - even ahead of Lawrence.

I would much rather go Sewell with the first pick, transforming our line from a question to a real force, then draft someone like Terrance Marshall later. Seems like better value than if you did it the other way, taking the 2nd best receiver at 6 seems to be wasting a premium draft spot.

white1 wrote:Interesting stuff thx DF.

Yesterday I read Mando worrying about the top 5 picks being 3 QBs, then Pitts, and then Chase.  That's fine.  I would run to the podium in order to select Sewell. But I don't believe Cincy passes on Sewell, they need to get their young QB protection.  Some evaluators have him as the best prospect in the draft at any position - even ahead of Lawrence.  

I would much rather go Sewell with the first pick, transforming our line from a question to a real force, then draft someone like Terrance Marshall later.  Seems like better value than if you did it the other way, taking the 2nd best receiver at 6 seems to be wasting a premium draft spot.  

Mando just doesn't get it...the Dolphins traded down (and then back up) knowing that both Pitts and Chase might not be available at 6. What does that tell you? It tells me that they are 100% fine on missing out on one or both of those players. Which of course means that the likely targets are Sewell and Smith.

While Sewell would not make my toes tingle, if the Phins pick him I'd totally get it - and after my initial disappointment I'd be on board.

BUT...it seems to me that Smith has been the target all along. If in fact the Phins are committing to building around Tua, there is no better player in the draft as far as fit. And it's not just because they played together, though that helps. It's because Smith gets open consistently - and he does it quickly and easily. Tua reads the field super-quick and finds the open receiver - and no one in this draft class gets open quicker than Smith, and he can do it at every level: short, intermediate, deep. His super-long arms make it very difficult for even big corners to get their hands on him, and his precise route-running, speed and hands make him the ultimate weapon for this offense. "Precise route-running" is the key here...those are the types of receivers that Tua will thrive with - guys that get where they are supposed to be, and on time.

If Pitts is on the board, I think the Phins give him strong consideration...but as we get closer to the draft I'm feeling more and more that Smith is the pick.

Yeah, I was suspecting that if they stood pat at #3 overall it was gonna be Sewell.

But much as we learned when Parcells dumbly picked a LT instead of Matt Ryan, a great LT can only help you so much if
the rest of the offense is sub-par (or in the case of the Phins...often injured).

Sewell is no doubt much better than the other OTs, but THAT MUCH better than Slater, Darrisaw, Jenkins, Mayfield, and Leatherwood?
Not when it may cost you a DIFFERENCE MAKING Skill position player IMHO.

I say go for the skill position players and get the O-line help later.

finfanatic wrote:Yeah, I was suspecting that if they stood pat at #3 overall it was gonna be Sewell.

But much as we learned when Parcells dumbly picked a LT instead of Matt Ryan, a great LT can only help you so much if
the rest of the offense is sub-par (or in the case of the Phins...often injured).

Sewell is no doubt much better than the other OTs, but THAT MUCH better than Slater, Darrisaw, Jenkins, Mayfield, and Leatherwood?
Not when it may cost you a DIFFERENCE MAKING Skill position player IMHO.

I say go for the skill position players and get the O-line help later.

I agree - I want the skill position players first. But, as I said, I do understand picking Sewell...even if it's not at al what I would do.

And as far as OL, I don't even want to draft a tackle. I think we roll with Jackson and Hunt. I want a guard and a center.

I'm getting a serious vibe that Grier wants OT so Hunt can be moved inside, doing the old "strengthen two positions with one move" thing that somehow never seems to actually work.

Also mark my words, Sewell has immaturity issues and could be the next Wilson. You saw it here first! If he's the first pick I am bailing from the rest of the draft.

I heard Penei Sewell had a bad pro day.

CarsonChris wrote:I heard Penei Sewell had a bad pro day.

That's not what everyone else is saying...

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/04/02/bengals-well-represented-as-penei-sewell-impresses-at-pro-day/

Here's hoping the Bengals get fooled and take him, because Sewell WILL be a bust. I am convinced of this, and you all know how accurate my Bust Meter is!

If the Falcs do not go QB, and the Bengals go Sewell, that leaves TWO QB Prospects hanging there on the draft boards at the #6 pick.

With the Panthers and the Broncos maybe in love with one of the QBs, could we get a bidding war for the Phins pick?

And end up at #8 or #9 with more draft picks than the Phins need?

That would be wonderful!

I like the idea of Pitts and think his receiving skills could add a whole new dimension to Miami's offense. He's fast enough he could be used as a primary receiver. He has the height to be a true red zone threat. It's time Miami enters into the modern age of the NFL and learns how to exploit opponents with the TE. The best teams have been doing it for the past 15 years. We keep worrying about blocking.

finfanatic wrote:If the Falcs do not go QB, and the Bengals go Sewell, that leaves TWO QB Prospects hanging there on the draft boards at the #6 pick.

With the Panthers and the Broncos maybe in love with one of the QBs, could we get a bidding war for the Phins pick?

And end up at #8 or #9 with more draft picks than the Phins need?

That would be wonderful!

I said it before and I'll say it again, I would NOT want to trade down lower than 8. That's just begging for Pitts *and* Smith to both be gone and then what do you do? Trade down again? Grier would look like an idiot for trading up to 6 at that point. In every mock draft I've ever done and seen the Lions always take a WR or Pitts.

CarsonChris wrote:I like the idea of Pitts and think his receiving skills could add a whole new dimension to Miami's offense. He's fast enough he could be used as a primary receiver. He has the height to be a true red zone threat. It's time Miami enters into the modern age of the NFL and learns how to exploit opponents with the TE. The best teams have been doing it for the past 15 years. We keep worrying about blocking.

If Pitts is there at 6 and Grier passes him up to take Sewell, he should be fired on the spot. It won't happen but it should. Pitts and Smith are the ONLY acceptable options for me with the first pick. Period.

DolFan 316 wrote: Pitts and Smith are the ONLY acceptable options for me with the first pick. Period.

Yeah, that's where I'm at too. Like I said, I could understand going with Sewell, even though I wouldn't like it. But I'd be shocked if the Bengals don't take him.

DolFan 316 wrote:

CarsonChris wrote:I heard Penei Sewell had a bad pro day.

That's not what everyone else is saying...

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/04/02/bengals-well-represented-as-penei-sewell-impresses-at-pro-day/

Here's hoping the Bengals get fooled and take him, because Sewell WILL be a bust. I am convinced of this, and you all know how accurate my Bust Meter is!

Sewell showed up in good shape and looked strong and quick. To see a behemoth, 330 pound lineman without a giant belly is pretty rare! His arms are a bit shorter than you'd like in a tackle, but that's nitpicking. He should be a lock to go at 4 or 5. Now, he may very well be a bust - I tend to think he'll be OK because he seems to be a hard worker - but for now he is doing exactly what he needs to do.