Could the Phins trade down from 6?

You've probably seen the stories this week that teams are calling the Phins about moving up to 6. My initial thought was "Not gonna happen." But thinking about it more, if the draft plays out a certain way, I think there's a real possibility that the #6 pick becomes a destination spot for QB-needy teams.

Here is one possibility:

Pick 1 - Jags take Lawrence
Pick 2 - Jets take Wilson
Pick 3 - 49ers take Fields
Pick 4 - Falcons take Pitts
Pick 5 - Bengals take Sewell
Pick 6 - TRADE - Broncos move up for Trey Lance, Dolphins now have pick 9
Pick 7 - Lions take Chase, Smith or Waddell
Pick 8 - Panthers take ??? Mac Jones, Micah Parsons, Patrick Surtain, Jaycee Horn ???
Pick 9 - Dolphins have their choice between 2 of Chase, Smith or Waddell, or maybe Parsons

So essentially, the Phins trade to 9 and still get one of the guys they targeted at 6. Depending on what the offer is, I think I'd jump on it.

But I think the only team I'd trade with is Denver...I want to stay in the top 10. The Giants and Eagles pick at 11 and 12, and both of them may be targeting WR. So we'd have to stay top 10 to ensure we get one of the top receivers.

I honestly don't think anything will happen, but you know know. Elway might panic and look to make a move.

Possible if there's still a viable QB in the mix at 6. I agree about not wanting to move down any further than 9.

But...if we trade down, Giants or Eagles might move up with Detroit to take our target (I think either would love to have Smith if he makes it past our pick).

I was reading this as well yesterday. Hal got to Grier somehow, didn't he? DIDN'T HE?!?!

Worst case scenario is Grier trading down out of the top 10, missing out on Smith AND Pitts, and ending up picking an OT not named Sewell. I can totally see this happening because it would be such a Finsy thing to do in a draft.

The ONLY way I'd accept a trade down is if Surtain is the pick and even THEN I would need to see someone traded away for another pick. This team now has under $7 mil of cap space after the latest signing and would need to get rid of somebody in order to be able to pay the rookies, let alone make any other postdraft signings. Looking at overthecap.com the most likely players they'd part ways with are either McCain or Reid, but I've seen people talk about Howard being traded. Grant could be gone as well but realistically nobody else on the team could be jettisoned due to the hit being far more than the savings would be worth.

Imagine trading Howard to the Cowboys for pick 10 and getting Surtain there, how wild would THAT be?

But ultimately I'm hoping Grier traded up to 6 for a reason and stays there, otherwise the trade up from 12 looks like a silly waste of time.

JMP wrote:But I think the only team I'd trade with is Denver...I want to stay in the top 10.  The Giants and Eagles pick at 11 and 12, and both of them may be targeting WR.  So we'd have to stay top 10 to ensure we get one of the top receivers.

I honestly don't think anything will happen, but you know know.  Elway might panic and look to make a move.

It truly would be a panic move trading up with a team everyone knows isn't taking a QB just to get ahead of the Lions who nobody has taking a QB either. Surely Elway's not THAT dumb.

DolFan 316 wrote:I was reading this as well yesterday. Hal got to Grier somehow, didn't he? DIDN'T HE?!?!

But ultimately I'm hoping Grier traded up to 6 for a reason and stays there, otherwise the trade up from 12 looks like a silly waste of time.

LOL  I agree, I don't see the 6 pick being traded again unless something Grier doesn't expect happens in front of him.  Looks like they were targeting that range all along.

Just for you Dolfan, I am doing one now where we are at 68th pick, I made one choice (61st) and I have this already set up for next year:

SF 1st
MIA 2nd
ARI 2nd
DET 2nd
CIN 2nd
SEA 2nd
BAL 2nd
MIA 3rd
SF 3rd
DET 3rd
CIN 3rd
CAR 3rd
LAR 3rd
CHI 3rd
ATL 3rd
BAL 3rd
BAL 3rd
DEN 3rd
NYG 3rd
MIA 4th
SEA 4th
NE 4th
BUF 4th
MIA 5th
MIA 6th

Well, I guess I can make the rest of these picks and see what we come up with :-)

UPDATE: picked up NYG 4th next year in one last trade.  The rest:

61.

Elijah Moore
WR Mississippi
trade icon
MIA
68.

Landon Dickerson
OC Alabama
trade icon
MIA
69.

Michael Carter
RB North Carolina
trade icon
MIA
76.

Elijah Molden
CB Washington
trade icon
MIA
81.

Jordan Smith
EDGE UAB
MIA
83.

Kellen Mond
QB Texas A&M
trade icon
MIA
93.

Talanoa Hufanga
S USC
trade icon
MIA
101.

Elerson Smith
EDGE Northern Iowa
trade icon
MIA
104.

Kenny Yeboah
TE Mississippi
trade icon
MIA
111.

Trey Sermon
RB Ohio State
trade icon
MIA
113.

Tyler Shelvin
DT LSU
trade icon
MIA
149.

Austin Watkins
WR UAB
trade icon
MIA
174.

Shaka Toney
EDGE Penn State

And man, is the third round ours next year or what? 12 picks!

I finally figured it out. Hal's RIDICULOUS luck in these sim drafts has convinced him he can make endless trade downs without losing anybody he likes at any position. If only that were true with NFL GMs in real life (sighs).

I've still got PTSD from all the trading down JJ did that ultimately got him nowhere and led to him intentionally missing out on Moss in '98 so he could draft...John Avery

re: 1998. What made it hurt worse was that absolutely anyone picked between 19 and 29 would have been a lot better than Avery. Hell, two Hall of Famers in between! (Faneca the other) Every single pick was at least a multi-year starter.

Surtain and Mixon really saved that draft, but Hell, even taking Surtain after trading down and hanging on to the first rounder in 2000 would have been a lot better. Not that Wannstedt would have made any kind of viable pick with it.

I spoke with my So. Fla friend again yesterday, and he says (he thinks this is true) the Phins have targeted D. Smith is what he is hearing. Even if the BenGals go for Chase, they are sure to get Smith at #6.

Trading down means not getting a talent like Smith, or Pitts, or Chase.

To me, there are some EXCELLENT Prospects EARLY, then it drops off and the picks from 15 through 50 might be rated a 1st or second round talent.

I think I would stand pat at #6, draft for IMPACT, and see if I could not turn the #18 into a few more picks in the 2nd and 3rd round.
Unless Grier and Flores think Najee Harris is the RB they need!

finfanatic wrote:I spoke with my So. Fla friend again yesterday, and he says (he thinks this is true) the Phins have targeted D. Smith is what he is hearing. Even if the BenGals go for Chase, they are sure to get Smith at #6.

I will spend every day and night from now until the draft PRAYING your friend is right! Seriously.

I agree FF - I would prefer to stay at 6. But if the draft plays out the way I described and we can still somehow get Chase/Smith/Waddle at 9 and add a few extra picks in the process - sign me up! It's a risk for sure, but one I'd take if the compensation is worth it.

Realistically, I think the Falcons end up trading down with the Broncos or Bears and #6 becomes a less desirable spot for a QB-needy team. But it's a great spot to get an impact pass catcher!

JMP wrote:Realistically, I think the Falcons end up trading down with the Broncos or Bears and #6 becomes a less desirable spot for a QB-needy team.  But it's a great spot to get an impact pass catcher!

EXACTLY. Why trade up to 6 to get a QB when you can just trade up to 4 instead?

The more I think about it the more I believe this "fielding calls" stuff is simply due diligence/smokescreening. Last week everybody reported that the Falcons were checking out the pro days of several QBs.

It would be absurd for Grier to even THINK about trading out of the top 10 after what he gave the Eagles to get to #6.

DolFan 316 wrote:

JMP wrote:Realistically, I think the Falcons end up trading down with the Broncos or Bears and #6 becomes a less desirable spot for a QB-needy team.  But it's a great spot to get an impact pass catcher!

EXACTLY. Why trade up to 6 to get a QB when you can just trade up to 4 instead?

The more I think about it the more I believe this "fielding calls" stuff is simply due diligence/smokescreening. Last week everybody reported that the Falcons were checking out the pro days of several QBs.

It would be absurd for Grier to even THINK about trading out of the top 10 after what he gave the Eagles to get to #6.

Agree on all of the above!!

Well, I am sort of sensing the Falcs want Pitts, but not at #4. They would LOVE to trade down and still get Pitts and some extra draft picks. I will be shocked, shocked I say... if they draft a QB at #4. I am definitely not should on Lance and unless Fields is there....

I just wonder if the Falcs will go for Pitts at #4 if they cannot trade down?

Yeah, the more i look at this I think JMP is right. D. Smith was the target all along. The Bengals SHOULD draft Sewell, but Burrows and Chase hooked up an awful lot in the 2019 season!! So, if Grier thought the Bengals were going for Chase, not Smith, and the Lions MIGHT Take Smith, then #6 was the place to be.

Let's hope his plan comes together.

I still say that if Pitts, Chase, and Smith are all there at #6, someone is gonna have to make a very hard decision. And woe unto him that is wrong!!!

That would be a nice decision to have to make I guess. But still a hard one IMO.

I agree on the Falcons...I don't see them going QB, not with Matt Ryan and his huge cap hit locked up for three years. Pitts would be insane in that offense!

The Bengals are interesting, because Chase does make so much sense for them with the Burrow connection - but they have a strong WR corps already, and their OL is absolutely awful. I think they have to go with Sewell.

If Pitts, Chase and Smith are all still there at 6, great. I doubt it, but I would not be disappointed with any of the three. I would not take Waddle over any of them but he's the next best choice IMO.