Why Xavien Howard is justified

https://dolphinswire.usatoday.com/2021/06/16/why-dolphins-xavien-howard-is-justified-with-desire-for-new-contract/?utm_source=dolphinswire&utm_medium=newsletter&utm_campaign=pos2headline&env=823a1e9974310138218c0adface86c3db39e483d5e5db1ae424ecba0c9b3d097

Some interesting reading here.... Not quite a succinct as GTFO, but...still interesting.

This is why Xavien Howard is holding out. Not because the annual average of his contract is 6th in the league. But because on the cusp of the 30-year age wall that typically knocks down cornerbacks (not to mention Howard’s struggles with knee issues in the past), Howard is currently set to play the last years of his physical prime in 2020-2022 and have just one year (2019) where he’s a top paid player at the position.

As I said, it will be interesting to see how the Phins handle it.

Yeah, but I will reinforce this point: His health history and age as they line up against the contract were both known when he signed it. This is not a surprise to anyone, and it's why he was made the top paid corner in the NFL at the time of signing.

THIS CONTRACT WAS his pay day. There should never have been a thought about a "second payday". That doesn't happen at CB when you reach the age of 30.

He's pointing to his best season and saying "pay me like that one year will be my performance for every year of this deal." And we all know the probability of having double digit INTs more than once - let alone several years worth - is extremely low.

I'm with the team on this one. They paid him just two years ago. He needs to get over it.

Nailed it, white. The Dolphins set up Howard's family for generations with the $40 million guaranteed they paid him. Deal with it and do your job.

for those who say he should be paid because of his performance last year...should the team have been able to ask for money back when after they made him the highest paid CB he produced a 5 game, 1 interception season?

of course not. they took the risk and then had to live with the contract. Howard accepted the upfront money for a deal at that time and should now have to live with the contract just as the team did.

So I tried t give some thought to the Howard contract situation. The first point is, Howard signed an extension after the 3rd year of his 4-year rookie deal. He did not sign an unrestricted free agent contract – typically much higher value due to competition on the open market. Howard did not have to sign that extension. He could’ve opted to play out his rookie contract and either become a free agent or risk getting franchise tagged (in which he would’ve been paid quite well, but one-year at a time). He was looking for long term security (despite injuries) and got that with the extension that made him the highest paid CB in the league at the time. The Dolphins inherited all the risk with the Howard extension. He was coming off an injury shortened season, the second such campaign cut short by injuries in his young 3-year career, but had played very well. How did he reward Miami for taking that chance on him? He played in 5 games and produced a grand total of 1 interception the following season. Did Miami ask him to renegotiate after that subpar year in which they gave him $27M+ guaranteed (since increased to nearly $40M fully guaranteed on 3/19/2021)? No, they did not, but they wisely did something else to protect themselves against the risk of Howard having yet another injury shortened season. They signed free agent Byron Jones. Yes, Jones’ total value contract is bigger than Howard’s, but again note it was a free agent contract and not a voluntary extension. Also, while Howard’s deal made him the highest paid at the time, Jones’ contract did not (that would be Jalen Ramsey) – different deal, different market conditions. Howard could’ve opted not to sign the extension and been a part of that 2020 free agent class and try to cash in on those huge deals. But after an injury plagued 5-game 2019, he probably still wouldn’t have gotten a deal anywhere near the Jones’ contract. So now, Howard is pissed because the team that took an expensive risk on him, took out an insurance policy by signing Jones to a fair market deal – and that insurance policy was necessitated because Howard did indeed get injured again.

Very easy to understand breakdown of the deals”

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/miami-dolphins/xavien-howard-18986/
https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/miami-dolphins/byron-jones-16751/

So fast forward, Howard had a great year and outplayed Jones by most every meaningful statistical measure. So he believes he should be paid more. On the face of it, that seems like a fair position. But again, this ignores the fact that Miami took the risk and that Howard didn’t have to sign the voluntary extension coming off an injury shortened season. It’s also interesting that Howard fired the agent that negotiated the extension – seemingly realizing he made a mistake by signing that extension (although it didn’t seem like a mistake at all on his part after the 5 game 2019 season).

But there is also (what I believe) and even bigger issue at play here just beyond his ego being bruised by the Jones’ deal. The Dolphins wisely crafted Howard’s contract such that they could get out of it after 2022 with relatively little dead money pain. The dead money hit from moving on from Howard before 2021 is $16M+, but drops to $2.8M in 2022 (Thank you Grier – oh, and the Dolphins have another similar out for the Jones contract before 2023). So here is Howard, knowing he is entering the twilight of prime (he’ll be 28 this season) and could be standing on the edge of being released after this season (especially if last year’s 1st round draft pick of Iggy begins to payoff). Of course he wants an expensive renegotiation of that extension. The money and length of a deal (extension) he would hope to get now probably far outweighs what he might be looking at entering his almost 30 year old season if released (especially if he doesn’t produce at a Pro Bowl level or worse yet, gets injured again). (Please note that no media outlet has picked up on this line of thinking, but I guarantee you these little tidbits will now show up in a Mando article after he reads this.)

But here is Howard’s problem: He has very little leverage other than threatening to sit out. He’s already received the bulk of the guaranteed money in his contract (including nearly $10M of his $13M 2021 salary). So he can take a little one year short term pain in hopes of getting a larger deal (how did that work out for LeVeon Bell?). He is gambling that Miami feels they need him more over the course of the next year than risking a holdout. Honestly, given his history with injuries – and that fact that he is seemingly spitting in the face of the team that showed faith in him when he was injured (after he’s gotten his guaranteed money) – I’m not convinced he’s worth the risk renegotiating, despite how great he played last year. And there is no incentive for Miami to trade him as they are not very likely to get much return for a player unhappy with is contract (not an insurmountable obstacle) relative to the dead money cap hit they would incur. So yes, players should indeed be able to get as much money as they can, but a player also has to have the leverage, good faith and future value to get that money. And the truth is, Howard has none of that right now. Things could change if Howard has yet another phenomenal year, but Howard needs to prove that in 2021 before he has that leverage. Right now, Miami needs to call his bluff.

Damn, merc - OUTSTANDING post. Great research.

Great post, merc.

Merc wrote:So yes, players should indeed be able to get as much money as they can, but a player also has to have the leverage, good faith and future value to get that money.

Exactly. You lead the league in INTs and go to the Pro Bowl you might be justified in asking for a raise. And the team is equally justified in saying "We just made you the highest paid CB in the league two years ago."

And I agree.... I think Howard's whole point is he is going to be close to 30 when the Phins are able to dump him for little cap hit.

Here are the league leaders in INTs from 2013-2019, and how many INTs they had the following season:

2019 Stephon Gilmore - 6, following year - 1
2019 Anthony Harris - 6, following year - 0
2019 Tre'Davious White- 6, following year - 3
2018 Kyle Fuller - 7, following year - 3
2018 Xavien Howard - 7, following year - 1
2018 Damontae Kazee - 7, following year - 3
2017 Kevin Byard - 8, following year - 4
2017 Darius Slay- 8, following year - 3
2016 Casey Hayward - 7, following year - 4
2015 Reggie Nelson – 8, following year – 5
2015 Marcus Peters – 8, following year – 6
2014 Glover Quin - 7, following year – 4
2013 Richard Sherman - 8, following year – 4

Note that every single player had a lower INT total the following year.

My point is, X got rewarded proactively with that huge contract - the fact that he had a good season while playing under that contract helps to justify the huge sum of money the team spent. And now he wants MORE money...but recent history suggest that his production is likely to go down. So why should the Phins give him an even bigger reward now??? It makes no sense.

All valid points from both sides of the argument. Miami could offer an incentive package to his contract. He gets the contract play + bonuses based on play. That way they both benefit. If Howard has a bad year he still gets his agreed upon pay. If he's the top corner he should be bonuses as the top player.

CarsonChris wrote:All valid points from both sides of the argument. Miami could offer an incentive package to his contract. He gets the contract play + bonuses based on play. That way they both benefit. If Howard has a bad year he still gets his agreed upon pay. If he's the top corner he should be bonuses as the top player.

Yep - I like the incentive package.

From the Dolphins' perspective the current contract is very team-friendly...with an easy out before X gets too old. So there's no way in hell they are going to tear up that deal at this point IMO.

I get that X wants more long-term security, but from his perspective - if he's still playing at a high level if/when the Phins cut/trade him next offseason (which is very likely), he'll be able to get the long-term deal and more guaranteed money from his next team. Basically, if he plays one more year for the Phins, he bets on himself that he can maintain a high level of play and earn another huge payday somewhere else.

But yes - an incentive deal would benefit both sides in the short term.

JMP wrote:Here are the league leaders in INTs from 2013-2019, and how many INTs they had the following season:

2019 Stephon Gilmore - 6, following year - 1
2019 Anthony Harris - 6, following year - 0
2019 Tre'Davious White- 6, following year - 3
2018 Kyle Fuller - 7, following year - 3
2018 Xavien Howard - 7, following year - 1
2018 Damontae Kazee - 7, following year - 3
2017 Kevin Byard - 8, following year - 4
2017 Darius Slay- 8, following year - 3
2016 Casey Hayward - 7, following year - 4
2015 Reggie Nelson – 8, following year – 5
2015 Marcus Peters – 8, following year – 6
2014 Glover Quin - 7, following year – 4
2013 Richard Sherman - 8, following year – 4

Note that every single player had a lower INT total the following year.  

My point is, X got rewarded proactively with that huge contract - the fact that he had a good season while playing under that contract helps to justify the huge sum of money the team spent.  And now he wants MORE money...but recent history suggest that his production is likely to go down.  So why should the Phins give him an even bigger reward now???  It makes no sense.

And it's all set up to happen again since Howard's at last acting like he won't play this season. And if that happens (or even if he sits out the first few games and comes back) his production will plummet, he won't be anywhere near what he insists he's worth, and the team gets to rid itself of its (so far) one problem player.

And that's the real point of all this IMO. Howard is the one player who won't get with the program. As our old pal Omar would say that's...telling. But at least he did earn his money last season as opposed to your average millennial these days, who now throws a tantrum if they aren't paid for not working at all. This isn't a race thing obviously, and it's not even a money thing. It's a generational mindset that's increasingly taking hold. And it has extremely disturbing and long term societal implications as a whole. You shouldn't be shocked that Howard is acting this way, if anything you should be shocked he's the ONLY Fins player acting this way. If anything this reinforces in my mind how great a coach Flores is, much like Tomlin's coaching chops were validated by the fact he actually managed to keep Bell and Antonio Brown relatively tame in Pittsburgh before both of them went full rogue afterwards.

Also, may I remind everyone that Howard was recently kinda sorta implicated as an accessory to an attempted murder. Not saying he did it but as the kiddies say these days, that's not good optics for someone who wants to hold a team hostage.

What's one little attempted murder have to do with anything now a days? Hell, they make statues of attempted murderers and canonize them as saints. If anything that gives him street cred and he should be getting more!

Nice discussion.

I am sure the Phins would like to placate Howard, but renegotiating a deal after just two years is a bad precedent.

Adding some incentives, maybe of the unlikely to be attained type, would not add cap costs this year, but maybe placate Howard and get him to camp?

What would that be though... Pro Bowl, likely to be attained IMO... 6 INTs, likely to be attained....

Unless of course, the opposing offense starts actively game planning to not throw to Howard's side of the field. Sort of like teams did Revis back in the day.

If igignohene has any semblance of ability we might trade Howard. I could see Miami waiting a couple games before moving on. To make sure the team can function without Howard.

CarsonChris wrote:If igignohene has any semblance of ability we might trade Howard. I could see Miami waiting a couple games before moving on. To make sure the team can function without Howard.

Yep, I think the plan is for Iggy to be Howard's replacement, if he is up to the challenge.

Personally, I think Howard will be a Dolphin this season. I could see a trade in the next offseason, or possibly even before the trade deadline if the Phins suck this season, but at this point I think he either plays or they let him hold out.

I love the culture that Flores has created. Looks bad when the you're the only guy missing from the team during mandatory OTA's.

Xavien Howard remains adamant about getting more money. The fact others have received new deals (including Jason Sanders, nothing personal) has made him even more dug in. If he doesn’t get a new deal with more money, this could stretch well into August.

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/barry-jackson/article251442333.html

looking like there may be no near-term solution.

I just assumed Howard would hold out from the start, so I'm unfazed by this. He'll just have to keep paying fines until "suddenly" realizing he's not *that* unhappy after all. People like him are always yammering on about having principles and morality when they have none of either, before completely backtracking and pretending they were never upset at all. As far as I'm concerned Howard is no longer a Dolphin and everyone else needs to move forward without him. The train has left the station.

This is why I'm an advocate of ALL players no longer on their rookie deals receiving one-year contracts only. They'd be perfectly free to keep re-signing with the same team if they wanted, but it's becoming painfully obvious now that signing any pro athlete to a contract longer than a year is a complete waste of everyone's time.

The team got five games from Howard in 2019. After making him the highest paid player at his position.

Howard played lights out in 2020.

Seems like the definition of "fair" - team takes all the risk, Howard fails once and delivers once. Where is this "more money" coming from?!

white1 wrote:The team got five games from Howard in 2019.  After making him the highest paid player at his position.

Howard played lights out in 2020.  

Seems like the definition of "fair" - team takes all the risk, Howard fails once and delivers once.  Where is this "more money" coming from?!

Didn't you hear? It's part of the "new normal" all the cool kids keep talking about. Being in a constant state of negative emotion even as everyone around you is constantly bowing and kowtowing to your every whim is trendy, and if you disagree then you're a bigot and a "boomer". The NFL is the new NBA. It's not going to happen, it already has.

So, let me get this straight: Howard wants MORE money, so he's going to hold out and LOSE money.

Um, OK.

I am a big X fan. But he's hurting himself and he's hurting his team. I really hope the Phins just let him sit home and rot...don't cave in, because there's absolutely no reason for them to do anything. If they want to give him some incentives, that's fine - but DO NOT rework the deal. No more guaranteed money, no extra years.

I actually foresaw this as far back as March. My mistake was in not expressing forcefully or often enough my desire for Howard to be traded before/during the draft and selecting Surtain The Younger with the pick. It would've been so perfect. But that's my fault for keeping quiet for once when I shouldn't have.

JMP wrote:I really hope the Phins just let him sit home and rot...don't cave in, because there's absolutely no reason for them to do anything.

i absolutely agree. Howard is a tremendous talent and i absolutely want to see him on the field, but it just doesn't make any business sense to redo his contract now. and given the team already took all the risk to extend him and make him the highest paid CB despite the fact he was injured - this all seems a little disingenuous by Howard to holdout now that the huge guaranteed cash has been paid out.

and i can almost guarantee that if they do give in, he will somehow get injured and miss most of the season yet again.

the case has been made the Arizona Cardinals are in desperate need of a veteran CB (after Patrick Peterson moved on), but the actual proposed offer of only a 2nd rounder is laughable. the market has been set for top level DB's who want new deals - and it is two 1st rounders.

The Los Angeles Rams gave up two first-round picks for cornerback Jalen Ramsey, whom they will have to pay now. The Seattle Seahawks traded a pair of first-round selections to get safety Jamal Adams.

https://sports.yahoo.com/cardinals-won-t-able-pull-204837924.html

the Dolphins have all the leverage. they should tell his agent that he has two options: show up and play for the Dolphins under the current contract (the preferred path) or go find a NFC team willing to give up two 1st rounders. otherwise he can sit at home while the Dolphins move on and he will never see his desired deal.

I am absolutely loving that the majority of us are in agreement on this

BTW I don't "hate" Howard at all. Hate would mean I actually cared. I feel the same way about him as I would towards a branch I trimmed from a tree, or a piece of hair I cut off my cat, or a bag of trash I took to the dump. If he wants to move on that's fine with me and I simply won't care about him any more one way or the other.

Now if Iggy winds up being as bad as I think he is, I'll be pissed about that. But in that case he'd have been a bust with or without Howard so really, one has nothing to do with the other. Howard simply isn't worth my energy now. In my mind he's already gone.

I believe there's a certain week of the season that if Howard reports by, he gets his full salary or a year of service accrued or both, so my prediction is he has a sudden "change of heart" just before that time, then just "happens" to immediately develop a sudden and severe "injury" that gosh darn it, will keep him out the rest of the season.

Like I Said... I ain't worried about Howard sitting out of OTAs.

Along about the third preseason game, if this crapola is still going on... THEN I Might start to worry a little.

Especially if the defense is looking like it usually looks in the first couple of games of the season!!!

As far as taking all the "risk" in signing a player..... you all do understand that an NFL Contract is not fully guaranteed, right? The team can cut a player without any regard to how many years are left on the deal. All that comes into play is the signing bonus money or the actual guaranteed amount.

I will get upset about players not "honoring" a contract when the teams have to start honoring a contract.