What can Miami really do

Curious to see how the Dolphins could potentially maximize what little draft picks they have available without significantly dipping into future year draft picks, I used DraftTek trade value chart to see what they could potentially do.

https://www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp

If Miami packaged all of their picks 102 (92 pts), 125 (47), 224 (1) and 247 (1) they could potentially move up only as high as about pick 90 (currently held by Tennessee – 89 is with Buffalo). So is any single player they might select only 12 spots higher in the 3rd round better than the combination of having both a low 3rd and low-mid 4th? Of course it depends on the players available at the time (nobody is a sure thing), but I’m just not convinced that a single pick, still low in the 3rd, is better than the chance to have two possible players from the 3rd and 4th. Hell, both Zack Thomas and Reshad Jones were 5th rounders.

So how about in the opposite direction. Are there any teams with picks that fall at the right value that the Dolphins could move down and not significantly degrade their current pick value and player potential? I mean sure, they could hypothetically trade their 3rd rounder for six or more 5th rounders or the maybe the entire 7th round, but no team has all those picks (yes, I’m being sarcastic and making fun of all those unrealistic, outlandish pre-draft trade scenarios). I only see 2 real possibilities right off the bat.

The Dolphins could move back only 2 spots in the 3rd round by swapping with the Raiders and picking up one of their three low 6th rounders (most likely either 211 or 212 as 218 is too low) and one of their two 7th rounders (I’d push for 238 over 253). This might be worth it, if Miami felt they could still get the player they want at 104 they’d get at 102. And it would allow Miami to burn a 6th or 7th rounder on a punter or other special teams potential. And why would the Raiders do this? It would allow them to move up over divisional rival KC, especially if they thought the Chiefs might nab their target. In my opinion, this would be worth considering (assuming they felt reasonable assured neither the Raiders or KC was interested in the player Miami wants at 102).

Miami could potentially move all the way out of the 3rd round, but stay within 10 picks by trading with the Giants at 112 and picking up their high 5th rounder at 147. I’m certainly intrigued by picking up that 5th rounder, but I would only consider this move if all of the players Miami really valued at 102 were gone and felt assured that a player they valued in the next tier would survive the next 10 selections. But if a player they really want in the 3rd round is available, then I don’t think I would risk the move.

Now none of this considers a combination of picks and a player. And frankly, I’m just not sure there are any expendable players on the Phins’ roster that would be worth any picks at this point. Having said that, I think Grier moved too soon with the Parker trade. Yes, I know they like the 3rd rounder they got NEXT year, but having seen all the movement for the 6 WRs drafted in the 1st round alone plus the two major WR trades, I feel certain Grier could’ve squeezed a WR desperate team for a 3rd rounder THIS year – but that ship has sailed.

I wonder if Grier actually does potential trade war-gaming like this? If not, he should. I’ll be sending my GM resume to screwyouRoss.com (no, that’s not real).

thoughts?

I just did an updated mock on PFF, with every first round selection already having been made, and gave up 102, next year's 2nd, and both 7ths to move up to 52 and get Chad Muma. The CPU *hated* that trade and gave it a D. I think the CPU is right. Realistically, Grier would have to wait until the start of the 3rd before even thinking about any trade up, and even by then all the guys I really want would likely be gone. Anybody left at 102 just doesn't excite me. I'm thinking either trade up for someone who would actually start for this team somewhere or just trade the whole draft (all four picks of it) for picks next year. This business of just sitting there is not something I want or would find acceptable. It would literally take a miracle if one player I really wanted fell to 102 let alone 125.

I'm fine with staying put, BUT I have a feeling there will be quite a few good value players available at 102. I'd absolutely trade down - but only if I get a 2023 pick. I'm not really interested in getting more picks this year - I'm all in on next year's draft.

Basically, I just want a C and LB out of this class. Do that and I'm happy. Sure, we also need DL, CB, WR, RB...but those two positions are really the most glaring needs IMO.

If we could get an extra pick late this year it'd be OK, but I'd love the focus to be on getting extras next year. The more the better, but if we could at least slip down and get back into the 4th and 6th next year (or even better, double up in the 4th and 5th) and still get a couple of decent players, great.

Fortner is the best realistic option at 102 IMO. I also like a few other O-linemen like Logan Bruss and Spencer Burford, and of course Robinson is a fine pass rushing project. Alabama's Christopher Allen is another unfinished product at edge who could develop but given the injury history I'd prefer him later than the 4th.

A part of me really wants to trade up for Zach Tom just because he seemed to be Johnson's college kryptonite last season. But Tom's probably going mid 2nd at the latest.

Tom is #50 and Johnson is #11 FYI.

Yep, I feel pretty sure the guys we are targeting like Cole Strange (#$%@) are going to be snapped up.

Fortner SHOULD be there at 102, and he is no doubt better than a 7th rounder, but just how much better?

I still think Grier is looking at this not like we PHANS think he should be looking at this. He is probably going to draft some players we all will screech about, but if they turn out to be Holland good...

Luke Fortner's intelligence and character make Tim Ruddy come to mind. Never a star but a capable C for a decade. I could live with that at 102.

finfanatic wrote:I still think Grier is looking at this not like we PHANS think he should be looking at this.  He is probably going to draft some players we all will screech about, but if they turn out to be Holland good...

And that, FF, is the root of the problem! How many times have our mocks been so much better than the real thing?

HalCHorn wrote:Luke Fortner's intelligence and character make Tim Ruddy come to mind.  Never a star but a capable C for a decade.  I could live with that at 102.

Thing is, Ruddy was taken at 65 (last pick of the 2nd in '94). That's a MASSIVE difference from 102.