The Potentate Of Pessimism Is Back!!!

And I bring you a potential possible portent of dark and dire disaster!

SO...you think all is well just because the Fins are 3-0, do you? Shows how little YOU know. Not only is this likely NOT the case, the 3-0 start is more likely to be a sign that the proverbial other shoe is about to drop and clonk this team right on the head!

Don't believe me? This is what happened the last five times the Fins started 3-0. Spoiler alert: it's not pretty.

1996: The start of a brand new and brighter dawn, a fresh franchise reboot if you will. Yes, I'm talking about the beginning of the JJ Era. Like everyone else at the time I was swept up in the newness and hope of it all, a bright-eyed, fresh-faced and completely naive 23-year old. And when JJ started 3-0 I was thinking playoffs at the very least. What I got instead was two straight losses, Marino being injured, and ultimately a slide to 4-5 and and 6-8.

1998: Just two years and change into the JJ Error I had already become a hardened, bitter, cynical, irascible, crusty old bastard--at age 25. But despite a clearly watered down offense a 21-0 blanking of the then-mighty Steelers got me excited a bit anyway. Then came the dreaded Bye Week (some of you might know my stance on bye weeks) followed by 2 straight losses. The Fins never won more than 2 in a row the rest of the way, but at least made the playoffs at 10-6 and won a game which is far better than future 3-0 Fins teams would fare.

2002: At this point the Fins were coming off a franchise record-tying five straight playoff appearances. That and a 3-0 start had me ignoring my summer dream of them finishing 9-7 and missing the playoffs. Then came a road loss at KC in which Jay Fiedler somehow managed to toss three 4th quarter passes to the same Chiefs defender (Greg Wesley). Even then they won the next two before finally the bottom fell out, just as my dream had warned me.

2013: I was so convinced this 3-0 start was fool's gold that I predicted they'd lose the next four--and they did. (Seriously, this is a thing that happened.) Even then all they had to do was win one of the final 2 games to make the playoffs...and naturally the lost both by a combined score of 39-7      

2018: How bad was the Gase Error? So bad that I literally didn't even remember this 3-0 start at all   Naturally the Fins would lose the next 2, 4 of the next 5, and finish 7-9. Gase would go from 3-0 to fired.

And there you have it. The previous five times this team started 3-0 not only did they lose game four every time, they also lost game five 4 times, and missed the playoffs 4 of those 5 seasons!   On top of that the last three times they've finished a game WORSE than the previous 3-0 team, from 10-6 to 9-7 to 8-8 to 7-9! Does that mean this team will end up with just 6 wins? I don't know but there seems to be a definite pattern here.

Ironically the last time this team started 4-0 in '95 they beat the Bengals on the road (barely) but even THEN they collapsed to 9-7 and ended with a one and done playoff whimper and Shula being gone.

So yeah, right now I'm holed up in my panic room just waiting for "breaking news" that Tua's going to miss the rest of the season or the NFL has decided to make them forfeit all picks from the next two drafts, or something. There's just no way this can possibly be the start of anything good.




Can it???

i get what you're saying. but its like a coin flip, no matter how times its landed on one side or the other, each flip is still 50/50. i'm choosing to believe the Dolphins' failures of the past have no bearing on the present. one game at a time. one game at a time.

Mike McDaniel. That's all I need to know.

Allow me to do my best to be the, uh, oh, I don't know, Oracle of Optimism:

1996: Cardinals and Jests were downright terrible. 3-0 was a mirage with such a young team. With all the changeover 8-8 was actually a pretty successful opening season with Marino missing for 4 games of it entirely and not quite 100% for two more.

1998: This was disappointing. Parcells had JJ's number, that's about all I can say. The losses at New England and Buffalo were really disappointing. Both games we should have won. We probably weren't beating Denver anyway even with a higher seed.

2002: Bloom was off the Wanny rose. Still, that team was overall more talented than any of JJ's teams or any Fins team since Shula -- until this one. yes, even with the huge downgrade at QB. Scary defense and running game. Coach who didn't know how to win.

2013: Does anyone really think Joe Philbin had any chance to be the head coach of a playoff team?

2018: Ok, so Gase did it once, but still, Adam Gase. Another mirage that New England laid waste to in Game 4.

I echo JMP. McDaniel does not coach like any of the above. Even JJ, with the daring moves he could come up with sometimes, never had this team ready to win a truly big game against a formidable opponent at full strength even after the defense was in place (1998). McDaniel might have been aided by injuries in Baltimore and against Buffalo, but he's also held serve at home in those September games that we HAVE to take advantage of, but somehow haven't all the way back to when we were playing in the Orange Bowl. I also think this team is the most talented we've had yet this century. No, none of the RB's are Ricky Williams, but who wouldn't take Tua over Jay? Or McD over Wanny?

Great post, Hal. The "McDaniel Factor" is the difference. Not only do we have a modern-day offense for the first time in almost forever, but we have an offense that is super-creative and impossible to gameplan for. I'm not sure we've EVER had a playcaller with such a deep understanding of route concepts, space and positioning. There are receivers open on every single play. We've never seen anything like that in Miami. An efficient QB with big-play ability combined with a mad genius playcaller? The sky is the limit.

And the best part about McDaniel is that he is a HEAD COACH. He's not pretending, like all the previous frauds we've seen here (especially Gase and Flores), to coach the entire team - he's really doing it.

Well, everyone can be hap-hap-happy if they want to, but if not for some fantastic occurrences, this Dolphins team would be 1-2.

4 Passing TDs in the 4th to win the Ravens game??

Josh Allen one hops a sure TD Pass to a wide open receiver in the end zone??

You can talk about the McDaniel Factor and Tua and all of that but let's not make out like the Phins went out and took anybody to the wood shed.

The Phins are LUCKY to be 3-0 IMO.

Now, I do hope the McDaniel Factor is real. And I have to say, I am loving Tua showing the reasons the Phins drafted him. But Tua needs to show more and be more consistent.

I had hope the Oline was gonna firm up and settle down, but I suspect we are gonna see an Oline in flux all season and ultimately, I suspect the Oline is gonna be the achilles heel of the team.

There... I have supplied logic and facts for my pessimism not that "mystical pessimism" you get from the "illusterous" Potentate. (Extra points if anybody can ID that one.  You gotta be old like me and JMP though.     )

finfanatic wrote:

There... I have supplied logic and facts for my pessimism not that "mystical pessimism" you get from the "illusterous" Potentate. (Extra points if anybody can ID that one.  You gotta be old like me and JMP though.     )

Would that be from the Ali Baba temple of the Shrine, by chance?

finfanatic wrote:

The Phins are LUCKY to be 3-0 IMO.

Are they?

The Miami defense allowed 3 second half points against the Bills, and 10 second half points against the Ravens. Is that luck? I don't know...sure seemed to me like they earned it. And those 28 points scored against the Ravens in the 4th wasn't luck - it was skill. The Dolphins worked for every one of those scores.

Sure, luck is always a factor - sometimes the ball bounces your way and sometimes it doesn't. But in both games, luck worked both ways: Waddle dropped a couple passes against the Ravens and Tua's first INT in that game was off a deflection. Ingold dropped a bomb from Tua against the Bills, and Dolphin defenders dropped 5 INTs in that game. Any of those things go our way, and we win running away.

But you can talk about luck all you want - all I know is that the Dolphins fought tooth and nail in these past two games, and they emerged as victors both times. Call it whatever you want, the bottom line is no team in the AFC is 3-0 except the Miami Dolphins.

HalCHorn wrote:

finfanatic wrote:

There... I have supplied logic and facts for my pessimism not that "mystical pessimism" you get from the "illusterous" Potentate. (Extra points if anybody can ID that one.  You gotta be old like me and JMP though.     )

Would that be from the Ali Baba temple of the Shrine, by chance?

Haha, I got that reference too because my dad had that record. Ray Stevens was the best!

finfanatic wrote:Well, everyone can be hap-hap-happy if they want to, but if not for some fantastic occurrences, this Dolphins team would be 1-2.

4 Passing TDs in the 4th to win the Ravens game??

Josh Allen one hops a sure TD Pass to a wide open receiver in the end zone??

You can talk about the McDaniel Factor and Tua and all of that but let's not make out like the Phins went out and took anybody to the wood shed.

The Phins are LUCKY to be 3-0 IMO.

Now, I do hope the McDaniel Factor is real. And I have to say, I am loving Tua showing the reasons the Phins drafted him. But Tua needs to show more and be more consistent.

I had hope the Oline was gonna firm up and settle down, but I suspect we are gonna see an Oline in flux all season and ultimately, I suspect the Oline is gonna be the achilles heel of the team.

There... I have supplied logic and facts for my pessimism not that "mystical pessimism" you get from the "illusterous" Potentate. (Extra points if anybody can ID that one.  You gotta be old like me and JMP though.     )

I didn't even point out that the Fins are 31st in rushing (only ahead of the Herberts) and averaging a paltry 3.3 yards a carry. Only the '97 team was worse over a full season. They are also 31st in total D (only the Ravens are worse, no wonder that game was a shootout), 31st in pass yardage allowed, and the run D is is giving up 5 yards a carry. Oh, and they have just a single INT through 3 games.

In other words, Tua is carrying this team even more than we think and if he misses any length of time the Fins may well become one of the league's WORST teams with Bridgewater #freeskylar

HalCHorn wrote:McDaniel might have been aided by injuries in Baltimore and against Buffalo, but he's also held serve at home in those September games that we HAVE to take advantage of, but somehow haven't all the way back to when we were playing in the Orange Bowl.

Bills fans have been accusing the Fins of not only cheating by having a shaded side and an open side in the stadium, but of actually violating OSHA regulations, and think they ought to be sued over it! Only in today's world...Apparently Ross had the place completely redesigned over the offseason. That's the only explanation that makes sense to me, seeing as nobody had any problem with the stadium layout and the heat all those previous seasons when the Fins were starting 1-3 and 0-4.

Also, it sure if weird how the early '90s, four time Super Bowl Bills never seemed to have a problem with the heat. In fact from '92-94 they were 4-0 VS the Fins in Miami and 1-2 in Buffalo!

DolFan 316 wrote:

finfanatic wrote:Well, everyone can be hap-hap-happy if they want to, but if not for some fantastic occurrences, this Dolphins team would be 1-2.

4 Passing TDs in the 4th to win the Ravens game??

Josh Allen one hops a sure TD Pass to a wide open receiver in the end zone??

You can talk about the McDaniel Factor and Tua and all of that but let's not make out like the Phins went out and took anybody to the wood shed.

The Phins are LUCKY to be 3-0 IMO.

Now, I do hope the McDaniel Factor is real. And I have to say, I am loving Tua showing the reasons the Phins drafted him. But Tua needs to show more and be more consistent.

I had hope the Oline was gonna firm up and settle down, but I suspect we are gonna see an Oline in flux all season and ultimately, I suspect the Oline is gonna be the achilles heel of the team.

There... I have supplied logic and facts for my pessimism not that "mystical pessimism" you get from the "illusterous" Potentate. (Extra points if anybody can ID that one.  You gotta be old like me and JMP though.     )

I didn't even point out that the Fins are 31st in rushing (only ahead of the Herberts) and averaging a paltry 3.3 yards a carry. Only the '97 team was worse over a full season. They are also 31st in total D (only the Ravens are worse, no wonder that game was a shootout), 31st in pass yardage allowed, and the run D is is giving up 5 yards a carry. Oh, and they have just a single INT through 3 games.

In other words, Tua is carrying this team even more than we think and if he misses any length of time the Fins may well become one of the league's WORST teams with Bridgewater #freeskylar

Of course, you know how big I am on yards per play, so here goes:

per pass play, offense: 2nd. Only Philly is better (9.4 to 9.0)
per rushing play offense: 30th, tied with Cincy and as you note only ahead of LAC. This is a big cause for concern right now.
per pass play, defense: 26th. Another cause for concern, no doubt.
per rushing play, defense: 26th. Perhaps the bigger cause for concern, though I note it's the two mobile QB's who hurt as most there.

Definitely some reason to be cautious in our optimism, but for sure this looks like one of the very best passing attacks in the league so far. Might hurt us when the weather gets colder, but getting two big division wins already and a third against a team likely to be in the mix for seeding is huge. That Raiders game turned out to be huge last year, gotta do it early too.

The Miami run defense has actually been stellar against RBs. Lamar and Allen did some damage, but in the 3 games opposing RBs are averaging just 3.42 yards per carry against Miami, with zero TDs. Those numbers become even more impressive when you take out the Zach Moss 43 yard run...without that run, opposing RBs average 2.56 yards per carry vs. the Dolphins.

Here are the weekly numbers against RBs:
--Week 1 vs. Patriots: 19 carries, 71 yards, 3.73 ypc, long of 12
--Week 2 vs. Ravens: 14 carries, 28 yards, 2.0 ypc, long of 13
--Week 3 vs. Bills: 14 carries, 62 yards, 4.42 ypc, long of 43 (and without the big run, the ypc goes down to 1.46)

With All the Bad Luck this Team has had over the Decades, I will take any Good Luck We Get and Put a Smile on Face and Enjoy it on the Train Ride to Happyville.

The difference feels like this team finds the end zone vs settling for field goals. I want to win tonight but given the short week I'm not sure we will. If we do I predict playoffs!


Hope Al Michaels gives us a "Do you believe in miracles" quote at the end of the game.

It's us against the world. So sick of these assholes that won't give us any credit and make excuses for why we are undefeated. I just want to shut up all these jackasses. LET'S GO!!!!!

I just want everyone to understand that I absolutely hate to be right about these things, it seems like somehow things turned out even WORSE than I thought! Thank God I didn't watch. My whole Sunday routine was thrown off by this though, I had no choice but to be awake for at least the first 1-3 quarters of the game. When I got home from being out of town and took a nap I should've just kept right on sleeping, dinner be damned, and now I feel somehow personally responsible for this

If the Fins really DO end up winning just 6 games now then how can any of us ever get excited about anything they do ever again?

JMP wrote:It's us against the world.  So sick of these assholes that won't give us any credit and make excuses for why we are undefeated.  I just want to shut up all these jackasses.  LET'S GO!!!!!

Aaaand instead, everything bad the media's been saying about Tua and this team the whole time gets confirmed.

Also, the current media take is, "Gosh, it sure is awful that Tua was seriously hurt. Now let's use this injury to talk some more about how the Dolphins need to be punished for hiding his concussion during the Bills game!" As if what happened tonight had to do with ANYTHING from the last game. But that's how it appears it's going to be spun.

There's one other reason I don't think this team goes away. Cheetah. He clearly doesn't like to lose and puts in the effort. That motivates others around him. Miami moved the ball last night. The offense is still capable. It's the Boyer defense that's the problem.

It's the Boyer defense that's the problem.

This. With the force of a thousand suns. A weak o-line and statue at QB and we let him get comfortable. Inexcusable.

You can consider me officially on the Vic Fangio watch. Hopefully, McDaniel showed enough firepower on offense that Fangio will view Miami as a great opportunity and stepping stone to another shot as HC somewhere.

Hal got it.

I figured I was the only one old enough to remember that.

And while I say there was an element of LUCK involved in the last two wins, I did not mean to detract from the Phins efforts. The team fought until the end. The defensive effort versus the Bills was fantastic.

Still, if not for some unlikely happenings, the Phins would have lost.

Smoke cleared a little…….

Season far from over. We are at worst still winning the division by a tie breaker as we enter October. We should have Jones back shortly and Howard has 10 days to heal up.

Mostert finally started to find daylight Thursday night. Just in time for the RB,s to step up while Tua convalesces.

Speaking of I bet he’s back just in time to shove it up Flores’ ass in prime time on the 23rd.

10 days to prepare for the Jets. 3-0 start in the division if we can. This could still be a special year.

finfanatic wrote:

Still, if not for some unlikely happenings, the Phins would have lost.

But in both of those games, you could also say that due to some unlikely happenings, the Dolphins win both of those games by a wider margin. It goes both ways - at least in those two particular games.

HalCHorn wrote:Smoke cleared a little…….

Season far from over.  We are at worst still winning the division by a tie breaker as we enter October.  We should have Jones back shortly and Howard has 10 days to heal up.

Mostert finally started to find daylight Thursday night.  Just in time for the RB,s to step up while Tua convalesces.

Speaking of I bet he’s back just in time to shove it up Flores’ ass in prime time on the 23rd.

10 days to prepare for the Jets.  3-0 start in the division if we can.  This could still be a special year.

That helps to talk me down from the ledge! LOL

Defense and running game need to step up. Teddy throws a great deep ball so we should still get big plays from Hill and Waddle. Have to limit mistakes and not waste opportunities.

I would not allow Tua to face the Steelers. You just know Flores is going to instruct his LBs to cheap shot him, and you also know the media and the NFL are going to willingly endorse it.