Big decisions in off season

Miami has big decisions this off season. On defense Xavien has lost a step. I'm not sure if he is the guy going forward. Byron Jones was an anti Tua player. He will never play for Miami again. A rebuild of the secondary is coming. Not to mention the defensive coaching. Something needs to change.

On offense, there's Tua. Year 3 he's played much better but questions still linger. Does he get signed to an extended contract or do we wait for the rookie deal to play out?

The offensive line has played much improved but with an aging injury prone LT do we draft another knowing Grier sucks at drafting linemen?

TE, Gesicki is in no man's land in Miami. I just don't get his lack of use. Some of it is Tua forcing the ball to Tyreek instead of looking for the open player. Happened in the fourth quarter of the Buffalo game. Gesicki was wide open and Tua throws to a covered Tyreek. End result, Miami punts and Buffalo drives the field for the win.

You forgot the big decision on Christian Wilkins. He is playing his best and I think they should lock him up. If he hits the market, he will be gone IMO.

I HOPE the Phins will try and get another year or two for Armstead. They do need to draft a LT to bring in and groom though. There should be some decent prospects available in the 2nd where the Phins pick. I also suspect, there will be a LB, a CB, and maybe a RB who are all rated far more highly than one of the OTs. It might not hurt to go with BPA and use a later pick for the developmental OT.

TE - I suspect they boot Gesicki. Despite what you hear on the board, the Phins were shopping him in a trade for other players. DO they stand pat with what they have or try and draft someone?

Tua - I think they will keep him and try and improve the team around them, but you never know what the most dipshiite Owner in the NFL will attempt. Ross is a fraggin' idJit first rate and when it comes to football he is worse than a Know-Nothing, due to the fact he does Know Nothing but he thinks he is a genius!

On the defense, I hope the Phins go another direction and bring in a top flight DC who wants a pressure defense. This team is blitzing a lot but there is just something missing from the defense when ToxicTeamKiller Flores used to call it??

The loss of that first round pick due to the idiot, moron, unmitigated disaster of an owner the Phins are cursed with having has ROYALLY SCROOGIED the draft this season IMO. That 1st rounder could have turned this draft into a GREAT one. Instead, all we can hope for is that Grier makes it a good one.

Wilkins should be #1 priority.
Boyer GONE
Chris Grier and his entire gang of INACTIVE and IR players get the boot.
McD F'd up Gesicki.

finfanatic wrote:You forgot the big decision on Christian Wilkins.

There is no decision with Christian Wilkins! He isn't a free agent yet, but he will be signed to a new deal. Like JEG said, that is the offseason's top priority. He is due to make $10.7 million next season, so my guess is they'll sign him to a long-term extension and get that '23 cap number down.

Gesicki is clearly gone, so no decision there either.

I'd let Tua play out his rookie deal. It is a risk because QB contracts will only go higher, but I think the team needs to see if he can stay healthy before giving him a massive deal.

I'm definitely keeping Armstead. That's a no brainer. His contract makes him almost impossible to cut anyway, though they could save a lot by doing a post-June 1 trade.

I'd absolutely keep X. He is still our best secondary player and he has played better as he's gotten more healthy. He is a key part of this defense, and that won't change. Byron Jones, however, is a goner.

Thoughts on some of our free agents:
--Sadly, I think AVG is a goner unless he is willing to sign a really cheap deal.
--Eric Rowe is still a good player, but he'll be gone.
--Nik Needham should be a priority re-sign, and hopefully he'll be cheaper coming off an injury.
--I'd re-sign Sherfield, Cracraft and Mostert. Maybe Jeff Wilson too, but I need to see more from him.
--Myles Gaskin = gone
--Melvin Ingram - I love the guy, but I don't see him returning.
--I'd definitely re-sign Duke Riley.
--I'd re-sign Brandon Shell and let him compete for the starting RT job.
--If Thomas Morestead wants to keep playing, I'm definitely re-signing him.
--Teddy Bridgewater...buh bye.

I rank our needs as follows
1) CB
2) OT
3) TE

We could also use help at LB

Pretty much agree with JMP on all the recovery of our DBs from injury will be crucial. Jones is gone regardless though

JMP wrote:I'd let Tua play out his rookie deal.  It is a risk because QB contracts will only go higher, but I think the team needs to see if he can stay healthy before giving him a massive deal.

the cost of keeping Tua is about to get a lot more expensive.

Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa led all NFL players in Pro Bowl fan voting this year, the NFL announced Monday.

The salary for Tagovailoa’s fifth-year option for 2024 increases from a projected $22 million to $28 million if he’s named to the Pro Bowl. He’s also eligible for an extension after the season.

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/nfl/miami-dolphins/article269431627.html

unfortunately, playing the waiting game at QB doesn't always turn out well. if a team is inclined to keep their QB, an early extension makes the most financial sense. if a team is unsure, they're more likely better off trading him away.

mercury22nathan wrote:

unfortunately, playing the waiting game at QB doesn't always turn out well.  if a team is inclined to keep their QB, an early extension makes the most financial sense.  if a team is unsure, they're more likely better off trading him away.

Yes, but in this case the health question is a huge factor. I think you really need to see Tua prove that he can consistently stay healthy before committing. That 5th year salary ($28 million) isn't outrageous at all for a good QB, and worst case scenario you can always use the franchise tag the following season. That does tie up some money, of course, but IMO it's vital to make sure this kid is going to be a long-term prospect from a health standpoint before handing him $200+ million guaranteed.

It's similar to the situation the Ravens have now with Lamar Jackson...I think he's missed 8 games (and counting) the past two seasons, and hasn't played a full season since his rookie year in 2018. But they have to decide if it's worth making him the richest QB ever despite the fact that he misses games every season.

I'm all in on Tua when he's actually in the game - but if he's going to miss 4 or 5 games a season it really hurts the team and you really have to evaluate if you want to pay big bucks for that. Not an easy answer, but I know if it was my money I'd hold off on that decision as long as possible and see if he can stay on the field.

HalCHorn wrote:I rank our needs as follows
1) CB
2) OT
3) TE

We could also use help at LB

Need OG too. I think Robert Jones has done a decent job at LG, but he's been too inconsistent - and we already know Eich is inconsistent at best.

RB also could be a big need depending on what they do with free agents Mostert and Wilson.

On defense, if I'm in the driver's seat with this team I focus a lot of assets on the front seven. Edge rusher, MLB, and/or a big, strong DL like Ogbah to bolster the line along with Wilkins and Seiler. I am reducing emphasis on elite secondary, and like we've all said in this post we have players that are really good coming back from injury. Totally agree Byron Jones is a goner.

On offense, I like the skill position guys we have assembled. Given we don't have a first round draft pick, I would go into the draft targeting the elite guards and centers which can be had in the 2nd, 3rd and 4th rounds. Yes, I believe the coaching staff with its OL development credentials will greatly help the scouting staff assemble the right list of prospects. I'm rolling at OT with Armstead, Jackson, Shell and possibly Little as swing tackle. I would focus on strengthening the interior OL in order to build on the power running game we saw in Buffalo - and at times in other games this season.

Love it, white!!

On Wilkins - As I understand it, the ten mill salary next year MAY be a bargain?!?!
Just how much is CW gonna ask for?
The top DT salaries are...

1 Aaron Donald LAR DT $31,666,667
2 DeForest Buckner IND DT $21,000,000
3 Chris Jones KC DT $20,000,000
4 Jonathan Allen WAS DT $18,000,000
5 Vita Vea TB DT $17,750,000
6 Kenny Clark GB DT $17,500,000
7 Grady Jarrett ATL DT $16,823,333
8 Fletcher Cox PHI DT $14,000,000
9 D.J. Reader CIN DT $13,250,000
10 Javon Hargrave PHI DT $13,000,000

Is CW as good as the top ten? I would say if he isn't then he is darn close. And the more important factor is what is the Phins D without him on the Dline?

And they can convert some of the salary to bonus money for sure, but still...
Faced with having to pony up big bucks for Tua too??

W1, you make some nice points. I have debated going after a CB with one of the top two picks or not. There seems to be a BIG drop off after the top rated CBs though. If the Phins want a CB in this draft, they should probably use a higher draft pick than a later one IMO. But... YMMV.

I have been playing around with the mock draft on PFN. Some of their rankings are absurd, but...

Here is one I just did ; picks up a 3rd for next year, and covers the Phins bases...assuming these guys can play!!

66. Drew Sanders LB Arkansas - I am not sold on Sanders, but he has the size and is ranked fairly high. I have been going back and forth on him, Owen Lappoe or Demarvion Overshown. I hope Henry T'ot'oto or Nolan Smith drops though.

81. Mekhi Garner CB LSU - Yeah, a CB...it is between him and Tyrique Stevenson from Miami. If they trade down some, Nehemiah Pitchett from Auburn (though we know how Auburn CBs have worked out for Grier.... )

106. Zach Harrison EDGE Ohio State - I DOUBT Grier is going to draft an Edge guy, but I think they really need someone who can backup Chubb and Phillips and who may develop into a starter and a real threat. I have not seen Harrison play much, but he could fit... I have seen Derrick Hall from Auburn play and he is a difference maker for Auburn's D.

122. Connor Galvin OT Baylor - I usually snag Harrison or Bergeron if they drop to #55 or so... And then I try and get Blake Freeland or Jordan Morgan... But Galvin, McFadden are the targets here if the Phins can trade for extra picks. The Phins need a guy with starting experience who can be plugged in to play right now if needed and not get totally MOLESTED by the defender.

165. Cody Mauch OT North Dakota State - A developmental OT but I think he must be on the rise as I used to be able to draft him in the 7th round.

174. Tyjae Spears RB Tulane - I usually draft a TE here but this time reached WAY DOWN for a PROJECT player. Spears is slight 5'10" and 190lbs ( or Tulane has him listed at that...) but the dude is a speed demon. 4.4 in the 40. I would love to see what McD could come up with to feature his speed and pass catching ability. Plus, I think he could be used as a KR and PR on special teams. Assuming the Phins do not want to use a higher pick on a RB. I like Zach Evans, Tank Bigsby and Israel Abanikanda. All of them have the speed McD wants.

2024 LAC 3rd - And picked up a 3rd for next year to replace the one the Phins moronic Owner lost them.

I do not think Grier will go for a OG as he has Jones, Eichenberg, and even Jackson played OG in the past. Dieter could also be plugged in at OG. But who knows? After one season, the feelings on the current group of OLinemen may have changed.

The draft is still a long way away, and until we see what direction Grier and company go in the off season and in free agency, we really are just throwing spackle on the wall to see what sticks!

Good one FF. A lot of players I like. Mauch and Spears are favorite sleepers of mine (though I see both going earlier, Spears likely in the 4th or 5th round--that Tulane team is pretty good).

OT is pretty deep in general. Galvin is a solid sleeper. I do think there will be really good CB prospects into day 3 and the Fins seem to be really good at scouting the under the radar sleepers lately (Needham, Kohou). Along those lines, check out UAB's Starling Thomas in that 5-6 round area.

finfanatic wrote:On Wilkins - As I understand it, the ten mill salary next year MAY be a bargain?!?!
Just how much is CW gonna ask for?
The top DT salaries are...

1 Aaron Donald  LAR DT $31,666,667
2 DeForest Buckner  IND DT $21,000,000
3 Chris Jones  KC DT $20,000,000
4 Jonathan Allen  WAS DT $18,000,000
5 Vita Vea  TB DT $17,750,000
6 Kenny Clark  GB DT $17,500,000
7 Grady Jarrett  ATL DT $16,823,333
8 Fletcher Cox  PHI DT $14,000,000
9 D.J. Reader  CIN DT $13,250,000
10 Javon Hargrave  PHI DT $13,000,000

Is CW as good as the top ten? I would say if he isn't then he is darn close. And the more important factor is what is the Phins D without him on the Dline?

And they can convert some of the salary to bonus money for sure, but still...
Faced with having to pony up big bucks for Tua too??      

Looking at that top 10 DT list, I would honestly put Wilkins in the top 5 - and maybe even top 2. It would be great if he got more sacks, but he is the best run-stuffing DT in the league and he is the heart and soul of this team - and not just the defense, either. I'd slot him in the $20-25 million per year range...so, #2 in salary behind Donald.

Having good players means you have to spend money. If the Dolphins want to keep both Wilkins and Tua - and all the other good players - they can and will make it happen. We see teams manipulate the cap every single season, and even if it means pushing money to later years it always seems to work out in the end. And I used to be the guy that always said "protect the future cap!" But after seeing all these teams (notably the Saints) continually manage to get under the cap year after the year despite starting the offseason way over, I've changed my opinion.

I do not think Grier will go for a OG as he has Jones, Eichenberg, and even Jackson played OG in the past. Dieter could also be plugged in at OG. But who knows? After one season, the feelings on the current group of OLinemen may have changed.

It seems clear that the current staff views Jackson as an OT only...I don't think he's gotten even one rep at guard as far as I know.

Dieter is a free agent and seems to be an OC only to this staff...not sure if he'll be re-signed - I'd lean toward no, but have no idea what the coaches think of him.

So assuming Williams stays at OC, that leaves us with just three guards - Hunt, Eich and Jones. Hunt is more good than bad so he's a keeper - but he's a free agent after 2023 and I doubt the Phins will give him the big contract he will likely command. Eich and Jones both started strong but quickly leveled out - I'd rate them as inconsistent at their best, and godawful at their worst. Considering all that, my guess is OG will be a priority, whether in the draft or FA.

Of course, there's always a chance that the Phins bring in a center and move Williams back to guard - and that would of course lower the priority on guard.

Regardless, I'm really looking forward to see how McD's input will impact the rebuilding of the OL this offseason.

Hal wrote:Good one FF. A lot of players I like. Mauch and Spears are favorite sleepers of mine (though I see both going earlier, Spears likely in the 4th or 5th round--that Tulane team is pretty good).

OT is pretty deep in general. Galvin is a solid sleeper. I do think there will be really good CB prospects into day 3 and the Fins seem to be really good at scouting the under the radar sleepers lately (Needham, Kohou). Along those lines, check out UAB's Starling Thomas in that 5-6 round area.

I agree, Hal. PFN's rankings are sort of haphazard. And some teams like a player and think he will not be there in the next round, so they pick him earlier than they wanted to.

Zion Nelson from Miami is a 7th or an undrafted OT on PFN, but another mock has him ranked #10 OT.

I will definitely look a this Starling from UAB.

JMP - It will depend on free agency IMO. There are some OGs that will go in the 2nd round, but I wonder if they are MUCH BETTER than a 3rd or 4th rounder. Or heck, even a 6th rounder! The only OG I am sure of is O'cyrus Torrence from Fla. He is a beast! And might go in the 1st round.

finfanatic wrote:
JMP - It will depend on free agency IMO. There are some OGs that will go in the 2nd round, but I wonder if they are MUCH BETTER than a 3rd or 4th rounder. Or heck, even a 6th rounder!  The only OG I am sure of is O'cyrus Torrence from Fla. He is a beast!  And might go in the 1st round.

I agree with you, there FF. I'm generally not a fan of drafting guards high, unless it is a true stud. And yes, Torrence might be just that! A smart drafting team should absolutely be able to get good guards later in the draft, even if it is a converted tackle that lacks the arm length or footwork to play outside. The good news is, I am fairly certain that McDaniel and his staff know exactly what they want in offensive linemen...it's just up to Grier to target the right players.

Grier absolutely CANNOT be retained under the circumstances. IMO no GM can who does the following: 1. completely whiff on THREE first round picks in the same draft. 2. tear down the roster only to miss the playoffs the next three seasons. 3. make constant 'blockbuster trades" that ultimately just end up costing this team multiple draft picks and accomplish the same end result as not making any trades at all and 4. have a draft that's such a complete waste the team might as well not have had any picks at all.

I wouldn't even be averse to firing McDaniel at this point. At the very least I tell him to ditch Boyer and Crossman or else. How many coaches in NFL history do you think kept their jobs after losing their final 6 games of a season? (I honestly don't know BTW, but it's a safe bet to assume a whole lot fewer did after the merger than before.) I thought this guy was supposed to be smarter than Gase

I'd even get rid of Tua now. You simply cannot go into next season with him as the starting QB and expect any DolFans to give a damn. MAYBE he stays as a relatively cheap backup but hot damn, *something* has to be done even if it's only for one season.

Boyer and Crossman have been covered. I'd also finally get around to a complete teardown and redo of the scouting staff, which has somehow been avoided during all these years.

If this team essentially stands pat and only makes a cosmetic move or two then that's it, I'm finally done. And now I think maybe a couple of you guys might be as well. Things just cannot keep going the way they are, not anymore.

Pretty clear that my favored approach is needed. We need to rebuild the draft stock for 2024 since it’s clear we are QB shopping again.

And might well be coach and GM shopping again. Actually on the latter, should be. Mortgaging the future this year cam already be declared a failure.

Yeah, my fear is that dinglefruit Ross keeps the Gm and McD and they go out and pay way too much for Jimmy G.

With idiot owners, the hits just keep on coming it seems.

The loss of that 1st rounder while it looked like nothing when the Phins were WINNING, is now going to totally hamstring the Phins this off season and in the draft IMO.

Ross should be beaten daily until the draft is over, and then every Friday until he sells the team!!

Grier isn't going anywhere, nor should he. But the DC and STs coach better fire up the ol' resumes and start shopping for new jobs.

My take?

We fired the coaches we fired the GM we’ve tried it all.

Don’t do anything. Make Grier and McDaniel figure out how to fix it.

Yes I think Boyer is gone and that’s fine.

Unfortunately Grier appears to have missed at QB. I say appears because this losing streak has been ugly. But it’s not over yet.

If the team moves on from Tua I understand. They very well might and I can’t argue. But it’s all about upgrades. What are the alternatives? It might be better to target 2024.

I don’t know. But we still need some stability to build anything worth something. There were some positives to draw on, so start there and address what’s broken.

Tua is not the big problem. The big problems are defense, STs and a head coach that thinks he has to call deep passes on every single offensive play.

You fix all those things, and the Dolphins are Super Bowl contenders - with Tua. Right now, the Dolphins have a top offense and bottom-level D and STs. I get that everyone is pissed off and disenchanted with Tua, but the bottom line is he is not the reason we have lost 7 games - he's just not.

Look, we lost by 6 points to Green Bay. The Packers got 10 points off of special teams (the 93-yard kick return that led to a FG and the ill-advised onsides kick that led to a short-field TD), 7 points off a defense that let them march down the field for a TD on a long drive that took up almost half of the 3rd quarter, and another 3 points off the Mostert fumble at the end of the first half. That's 20 points that had NOTHING whatsoever to do with Tua imploding in the 4th quarter. Yes, Tua had opportunities to win the game and failed miserably - but the Dolphins never should have been losing in the first place. They should have won that game EASILY and the 4th quarter should have been a painless coast to victory - but they didn't because of Mostert, STs and defense.

JMP, the point is they did not win when they had chances to win with Tua as QB. You cannot have a QB who is this inconsistent. Great in the 1st half, then totally stinks in the second.

Great in the meaningless games and shrinks in the ones that really matter.

Tua cannot carry the team to victory.

Arguing that if the Phins fix the defense and the special teams, proves the point that the team is not necessarily winning due to Tua's play!

W1 almost said it. I will say it. The Dolphins made a mistake when they took Tua instead of Herbert.

Now, maybe McD can FIX Tua, but the point is Tua does not play big in meaningful games. Having a QB who can win when the D and the STs are great does not fill me with confidence.

finfanatic wrote:JMP, the point is they did not win when they had chances to win with Tua as QB.  You cannot have a QB who is this inconsistent. Great in the 1st half, then totally stinks in the second.

Great in the meaningless games and shrinks in the ones that really matter.

Tua cannot carry the team to victory.

Arguing that if the Phins fix the defense and the special teams, proves the point that the team is not necessarily winning due to Tua's play!  

W1 almost said it. I will say it. The Dolphins made a mistake when they took Tua instead of Herbert.

Now, maybe McD can FIX Tua, but the point is Tua does not play big in meaningful games. Having a QB who can win when the D and the STs are great does not fill me with confidence.

If the Tua Experiment has taught us anything, it's that QBs taken in the first round absolutely, positively MUST possess a certain minimum threshold of physical gifts in regards to size, arm strength, and inherent durability, and that any QB lacking any of these traits should not and cannot be taken that high and are not and never will be franchise QB material. This was not always true (Joe Montana, anyone?) but just like with everything else, the standards and requirements for the position have changed since the last century. Joe Burrow's hardly an impressive physical specimen, but he's an Adonis compared to Tua. And in 40 years of following the NFL I cannot recall any other QB having the uncanny knack of having his head bounce off the turf as frequently and violently as Tua. Not even Troy Aikman and Steve Young.

For the longest time I thought that Herbert was no better than Tua, and likely worse, but now that his team has made the playoffs and Tua's team will not I have been forced to acknowledge the truth and change my stance accordingly. Grier already whiffed on two first rounders in 2020, but now it's officially all three. If he stays employed the 2023 season will be a complete waste of everyone's time.

finfanatic wrote:

Tua cannot carry the team to victory.

Arguing that if the Phins fix the defense and the special teams, proves the point that the team is not necessarily winning due to Tua's play!  

W1 almost said it. I will say it. The Dolphins made a mistake when they took Tua instead of Herbert.

Except that Tua has carried this team to victory - time and time again this season.

Arguing that D and STs suck only shows that the Dolphins aren't a complete team. And the thing is, no team is - but you can't have the absolute worst defense and STs in the league and expect to win week in and week out. It doesn't work that way. How many Super Bowls did Tom Brady and Joe Montana win with league-worst defenses????

OK, so Justin Herbert has considerably worse stats than Tua this year and has a career W-L record of 1 game above .500...and it was a mistake to take Tua? Sorry, that makes no sense whatsoever. If you're going to kill Tua for a bad December, you'd better kill Herbert too. In December, Herbert has 2 TDs, 3 INTs, a lost fumble and a passer rating no higher than 88 in 3 of his last 4 games. In case you didn't know, those stats SUCK. So yeah, shit on Tua all you want if it makes you feel better - but don't give me this crap that Herbert is some sort of god because his defense is carrying him to the playoffs. Fact is, Tua is the better QB this season, and it really isn't close.