Week 18 against NY Jets predictions (not really)

while i get the overwhelming urge to start talking about next year and what must happen in the offseason, out of respect...or out of spite rather...for the current shit-drain-spiraling season, my comments this week will only be on this weekend's game against the Jets (other than to formally recognize that Boyer must be fired). yes, i realize its pointless, but i wish for it to serve as a reminder of just how pathetic this once proud franchise has become. and the fools we've all become for continuing to believe they will somehow, someday turn it all around.

so we all know what's coming, right? either way, this weekend's game will be for naught. if the Dolphins somehow stumble into a victory against New York, then the emotionally drained Bills lay down for the Patriots. if the conversely now emotionally motivated Bills come out an mop the field with New England, then of course Mike White and maybe even Zach Wilson in relief shred the Phins defense while 9-fingered Teddy and overwhelmed Shylar gift wrap a few pick sixes. either way, the Dolphins are done. and that's probably for the best. after all, it means a higher draft pick... oh, nevermind.

but lets ask ourselves, if you were the Buffalo Bills, who most likely will be awarded the AFC 2nd seed (after their currently suspended Cincy game gets cancelled), who would you rather face in the first round of the playoffs?

If the Jets whipped this team by 23 pre-collapse with Skylar/Turdy Bilgewater then this game may well be their largest margin of victory in the entire 55-year history of the series. Not even joking. I'd be shocked if this wasn't at least a 35-point loss. Get ready for a complete capitulation.

EDIT: Somewhat shockingly (to me at least) the Jets have never ever beaten the Fins by more than 27 That changes Sunday. There's no way it won't.

https://stathead.com/tiny/F1zZq

The team has shown up during the losing streak. Typically key penalties and mistakes have been the losing part.

I'd be surprised and extremely disappointed with a no-show performance against the Jets.

Our defense needs to take control against another poor offense. But, I don't expect that to happen.

It's probably another close, ugly game and maybe we can win it. Maybe.

The Jets have not scored a TD in two weeks, and have scored just 4 TDs in their last 5 games. The Miami D, pathetic as it is, just held a bad Patriots offense to less than 20 points on the road. So...maybe we can hold the Jets' pathetic passing game in check???

But on the other side of the ball, the Dolphins are likely starting Skylar Thompson - who so far has 1 TD, 5 turnovers, and a completion percentage of 54%. Granted, it is a small sample size - but any way you look at it he has been very much...not good. And now he's facing a very strong Jets defense.

White is correct: this will be a sloppy, close, ugly game. I think it comes down to which team has the better FG kicker. Both team's kickers have missed 6 FGs each this season...so neither is perfect. But I definitely trust a washed-up Greg Zuerlein more than I do a washed-up Jason Sanders, especially on longer kicks. The final score could be something laughable like 9-6, with no offensive TDs. Flip a coin to see who wins.

For shits and giggles (do people still say that?), I'll say the Dolphins win...but I'm not really feeling it, at all.

For the record, I still want the Dolphins to make the playoffs - even though they won't get passed round one. I just want to see a playoff game, dammit!

I just want to see a playoff game, dammit!

That would be fun, wouldn't it? Especially if Tua is cleared thru the protocol?

Alas, prob will not happen. With the horrific injury last night, Bills will likely rest a ton of guys and New England wins.

white1 wrote:

I just want to see a playoff game, dammit!

That would be fun, wouldn't it? Especially if Tua is cleared thru the protocol?

Alas, prob will not happen.  With the horrific injury last night, Bills will likely rest a ton of guys and New England wins.

I saw one guy one the net actually say the NFL was going to rig this game in favor of the Fins! It took all my willpower not to register for that site specifically to call him a damn fool. Yeah, the same NFL that's gone out of its way to rig the season AGAINST this team is all of a sudden going to 'help" them reach the playoffs Mark my words, Tua will not be allowed to play again this season no matter what. It would be real fun to see this team in the playoffs with no Tua and half the starters out won't it?

In literally any other situation I'd be right there with you guys but...I just want this season over and done with.

Not sure I can see Sanders making three FG's at this point, sad to say. So I'd rule out 9-6.

DolFan 316 wrote:
In literally any other situation I'd be right there with you guys but...I just want this season over and done with.

Oh, I certainly get that - and part of me absolutely feels that way too.

If I'm being honest I think a big part of my motivation for wanting the Phins to make the playoffs is that it means the Patriots and Jets will both miss the playoffs!

I also want to say that I have never EVER seen another team who constantly loses when they need to win yet wins more meaningless games than this one. Believe it or not the sad sack '90s Bengals had an uncanny knack of suddenly springing to life in December after entering the month with the league's worst record but they never had the chance to go the other way and repeatedly lose late season games with the playoffs on the line.

HalCHorn wrote:Not sure I can see Sanders making three FG's at this point, sad to say.  So I'd rule out 9-6.

Can't argue with that.

HalCHorn wrote:Not sure I can see Sanders making three FG's at this point, sad to say.  So I'd rule out 9-6.

A TD and a safety would do it as well, just sayin'.

Imagine this team missing the playoffs because the rookie QB they drafted in the 7th round turned out to be far worse than another 7th round QB drafted afterwards, with both playing in essentially the same offensive system. That's the world we're living in now.

I know I know. I just can't let this go. I'm sorry, I really am but it just...angers me in ways even *I* can't fully understand.

We just really can't seem to get lucky on any QB picked. So we just need to draft one every year until we do hit big.

And yes, Tua technically looks like he could be, but I just don't think he's going to last long. The only always injured QB I can think of who actually succeeded at winning a SB was Jim McMahon, and you'd have to admit he had a slightly better defense and running game supporting him.

HalCHorn wrote:We just really can't seem to get lucky on any QB picked.  So we just need to draft one every year until we do hit big.

And yes, Tua technically looks like he could be, but I just don't think he's going to last long. The only always injured QB I can think of who actually succeeded at winning a SB was Jim McMahon, and you'd have to admit he had a slightly better defense and running game supporting him.

I agree, Hal. One of my "sources" a friend in So Fla told me the Dolphins had finally realized Tua is likely to be injury prone for his whole career. A few more concussions and that may mean an all too brief career as well.

I hate it as I think Tua is an excellent young man, and he showed at Bama that he could be a difference maker, but... CTE is nothing to play with.

And again, (Hey! If we are going to allow DF316 to constantly complain about Purdy instead of Thompson, then I am going to constantly complain about the idiot owner the Phins have!! ) if they had a 1st rounder this year to work with, who knows what they might do at QB?

I ain't real enthused about any of the draft QBs this year the Phins could reach, and I suspect if the Phins do decide to jettison Tua, they will get next to nothing for him, and then have to pony up big bucks and even bigger draft booty for a free agent who will probably not work out either!

There is no indication whatsoever that Tua has experienced anything career-threatening with his 2 concussions. He will be the starting QB next season, guaranteed. When healthy, he is one of the NFL's top QBs - hell, he still leads the league in passer rating. Give him a consistent running game and a defense that can actually force turnovers, and he'll be even better. The one-dimensional offensive scheme is what hurt him down the stretch - McDaniel needs to fix that in the offseason and make this offense more creative and less predictable.

There is no indication whatsoever that Tua has experienced anything career-threatening with his 2 concussions. He will be the starting QB next season, guaranteed. When healthy, he is one of the NFL's top QBs - hell, he still leads the league in passer rating. Give him a consistent running game and a defense that can actually force turnovers, and he'll be even better. The one-dimensional offensive scheme is what hurt him down the stretch - McDaniel needs to fix that in the offseason and make this offense more creative and less predictable.

I think that's the correct approach. As FF alluded in another thread, the real risk is will Ross be patient enough to go that route. I'm sure he's emotional over the losing streak, while most of us know that the injuries suffered especially on defense, coupled with a flawed scheme, not enough depth, and finally injury to the starting QB - are all huge contributors to the streak.

I can totally see Ross refusing to be reasoned with and doing something rash.

If he ONLY fires Grier, I would accept that. Boyer is a goner anyways, IMO, but if that's the move we have to have some confidence McD can get someone better. Because that's not automatic. We could easily end up with someone worse. My vote would be Fangio, or Bowles if Tampa goes another direction. Lovie Smith would be another consideration because Houston may fire him if they can get Payton.

white1 wrote:As FF alluded in another thread, the real risk is will Ross be patient enough to go that route.  I'm sure he's emotional over the losing streak, while most of us know that the injuries suffered especially on defense, coupled with a flawed scheme, not enough depth, and finally injury to the starting QB - are all huge contributors to the streak.  

I can totally see Ross refusing to be reasoned with and doing something rash.  

If he ONLY fires Grier, I would accept that.  Boyer is a goner anyways, IMO, but if that's the move we have to have some confidence McD can get someone better.  Because that's not automatic.  We could easily end up with someone worse.  My vote would be Fangio, or Bowles if Tampa goes another direction.  Lovie Smith would be another consideration because Houston may fire him if they can get Payton.

I don't see Ross doing anything major. I see zero possibility of Grier or McDaniel being fired this offseason, especially if we do actually make the playoffs - which (despite my current state of negativity about the season) is very likely.

You're right that we could in theory end up with a worse DC than Boyer...but considering that his defense is one of the absolute worst in the league in many key categories, I think the odds are that any change is likely to be for the better.

You and I are reasonable and rational.

I don’t know for certain Ross is that way. And he’s made his share of mistakes.

Sanders had made 10 in a Row before his miss in the Packers Game. They made the Mistake of Giving Him a Nice Contract couple of Years ago. I Would Like them to Win and get in the Playoffs but have No Confidence in either Qb and run Blocking Last Week was Terrible.

finskev wrote:Sanders had made 10 in a Row before his miss in the Packers Game.

Sanders is good with shorter kicks - although he has missed one FG from under 30 yards and also missed three extra points. But it's the longer kicks that really give him trouble - he's made just 1 of 5 kicks from 50+ yards, meaning that 4 of his 6 misses are all long kicks. I guess the moral of the story is: either punt or go for it on 4th down instead of attempting a 50+ yard FG!

Dolphins are getting their asses kicked and Pats are winning. It's what we see every year. We are cursed.

finfanatic wrote:And again, (Hey! If we are going to allow DF316 to constantly complain about Purdy instead of Thompson, then I am going to constantly complain about the idiot owner the Phins have!!    )

Fair enough.

BTW as things stand right now, every single AFC team with a positive point differential would be in the playoffs if the season ended today. So by that measure the Pats absolutely deserve to be in ahead of this team even with an offense that's 26th in total yards and 17th in scoring. A part of me would find it absolutely hilarious if the Bills tanked this game thinking it sets up an easy win over the Pats in the playoffs...and then lost to them again!

https://stathead.com/tiny/7zuSR

This game is going to be ugly. Jets 13, Miami 6. Tanking for Tua or something like that. Fire Grier!

DolFan 316 wrote:

finfanatic wrote:And again, (Hey! If we are going to allow DF316 to constantly complain about Purdy instead of Thompson, then I am going to constantly complain about the idiot owner the Phins have!!    )

Fair enough.  

BTW as things stand right now, every single AFC team with a positive point differential would be in the playoffs if the season ended today. So by that measure the Pats absolutely deserve to be in ahead of this team even with an offense that's 26th in total yards and 17th in scoring. A part of me would find it absolutely hilarious if the Bills tanked this game thinking it sets up an easy win over the Pats in the playoffs...and then lost to them again!      

https://stathead.com/tiny/7zuSR

Different sport, but the Dallas Mavericks actually did something similar in 2006-2007. Reportedly here owner Mark Cuban wanted to take down old nemesis and former Mavs coach Don Nelson in the first round, so the Mavs soft-pedaled it late in the season in a game against Golden State, losing 111-82, and the Warriors snuck into the 8th seed to face the top seeded Mavs. And 42-40 Nelson and Co promptly beat the 67-15 Mavs 4-2 in the first round.

JEGnj wrote:Dolphins are getting their asses kicked and Pats are winning. It's what we see every year. We are cursed.

But both teams have the same record, and are 1-1 against each other. The Pats are 2-4 in their last 6 games, while the Phins are 1-5. Not much difference. And we aren't getting our asses kicked...we're making mistakes and losing one-score games. Neither team has earned a playoff spot yet, and it is very possible that we get in and the Pats don't.