Week 18 - Battle for the AFC East

OK, here it is: week 18, Bills at Dolphins, both the AFC East crown and the #2 AFC seed on the line. It doesn't get any bigger than this when it comes to the regular season.

I wanted so much to believe that this Dolphins team was different. And then the Titans game happened. And then the Ravens game happened. Sure, we destroyed the Jets and came back to beat the Cowboys late in between those games, but the two ugly losses were a brutal reminder that this is the Miami Dolphins - a team that traditionally fades away when the end of the season comes and the games get more important. They pissed away a golden opportunity to capture the #1 seed, and now their backs are against the wall. A loss means the #6 seed, and in all likelihood a quick playoff exit next weekend.

Yes, every season is different, every team is different, and - now more than ever - every week is different. But even without the never-ending series of injuries the Dolphins are facing each week, I just can't find it in me to pick them to win this week. Honestly, I am not convinced that the Dolphins believe they can beat the Bills. And who could blame them? The Bills have won 10 of the last 11 matchups between the 2 teams, a stat that becomes even more ugly when you consider this: in 8 of those 10 wins, the Bills scored 30+ points (including 3 games with 42+ points) - while the Dolphins have topped 30 points just two times in those 11 games. To be fair, since Mike McDaniel took over the Dolphins in 2022, the scores have been within a field goal in 3 of the 4 games played (the lone outlier being the 48-20 curbstomping that the Bills delivered earlier this season). But let's be honest: this isn't a rivalry - it's a one-sided series of non-stop demolition.

I will be rooting with all my might for the Dolphins to somehow pull out a victory Sunday night - by any means necessary. But the realist in me sees another Bills ass-kicking coming, something like 41-17 Bills. I hate to say it, but I am prepared for yet another embarrassing prime-time loss that shows the world that the Dolphins are nothing but a pretender. To add further embarrassment to this situation, I fully expect the crowd to be at least 50% Bills fans - in the Dolphins stadium - making it look and sound to all the world like a Bills home game, and they'll get to celebrate on our field.

i feel ya JMP. and while i can certainly see a curbstomping coming, i hope we're wrong.

This is one of those games I really grapple with predicting with conviction. Admittedly, I am a Dolphins fan and want to see the positive. I am also well worn and jaded by the now nearly 30 years of disappointment. Given all the significant injuries at critical positions, last week’s lackluster (putting mildly) performance against top tier competition and the Dolphins more recent history of failure against Buffalo, this would seem to be a complete embarrassment just waiting to happen. And oddly enough, in the sometimes frustrating history of Dolphins football these are the seemingly hopeless games Miami surprisingly has a knack of pulling out (especially towards the end of the season). 2018 Miami Miracle. Last year Skylar beating the Jets to make the playoffs after having dropped the 5 prior games.

The three biggest keys I see in this game:

Miami’s LBers ability to cover TEs and receivers (both RB and WR motions) coming out of the backfield. This has been a recurring problem and Baltimore showed just how easy it is to exploit.

Given that Howard is hurt, Miami’s secondary’s ability to communicate and stay on the same page. Diggs and Davis are talented WRs and are going to get their targets and resultants catches, but eliminating the self-inflicted mistakes that allow wide-open plays that gash Miami for big yards and points is critical.

Tua’s ability to find other receiving targets when the Tyreek’s middle routs are clogged. This is not to suggest Tyreek should be ignored, he’s a large and necessary part of the offense, but there are times when the defense (see Ravens and last year’s Niners and Chargers games) specifically aligns to take away the middle passing windows. Tua has to be able to find other targets – TEs or check downs or other WRs on the outside – when those middle throws aren’t open.

I do believe Miami’s defense can return to form and put up a more effective resistance to Buffalo. I think Miami’s DL can stifle the Bills rushing attack. I think there are few things working to Miami’s advantage. Being a home game. And the fact that Josh Allen has the 2nd worst league wide completion percentage (57%) over the last 7 games (although the Bills have still won 4 straight despite this).

Stay patient. Do not give away the ball with forced passes. Do not let Allen run free. Force a couple turnovers. Make FGs. And Miami can win a close game. Will they?

Buffalo Bills - 26
Miami Dolphins – 23

Unfortunately, I think Miami is faced with too many injuries and has relative complacency as they are already in the playoffs while Buffalo is potentially fighting for their playoff lives. The game will be closer than many suspect, but Miami loses in the end. But hey, we still get to see them in playoff the next week.

I fear you are correct, JMP.

Two things to consider before we throw in the soiled, stained ragged 2023 season towel of tears for this game though:

One - This is a home game for the Phins. I think the Phins won the last home game versus Barfalo? It was in the September heat and humidity of course, but so far this season, with the exception of that costly, oh-so costly Titans giveaway game, the Phins have won all their other home games. The Phins (Usually) play better at home both on offense and defense.

and TWO - The Barfalo Bills have struggled to win their last two games against the Eaton Stick led Chargers who had absolutely nothing left to play for, and against the Bailey "Crappy" Zappe led Pats who were playing for nothing but pride. We have to HOPE the Bills continue to struggle and that the hideous Miami team we saw in Baltimore was/is not the real team.

Miami is going to have play mistake-free football on both offense and defense and hope somehow, someway, the defense can stop/slow/prevent Joshie from willing his team to a win.

It seems like entirely too long of odds against the Phins in their depleted, injured, and battered condition, but I am hoping the Phins have saved this last home game to be one of those special ones where everything goes right for the Phins and everything goes wrong for the opponents!

We can still HOPE after all!!

GO PHINS!!!

Obviously the concerns are well stated by everyone else.

That said, I don't see us losing 3 games in a row, which is what would need to happen for a one and done. This game looks impossible to pull off right now, but let's consider:

The OC who helped them put 48 points on us in early October has been replaced.
This team has not lost back to back games all season.
The Bills have 4 losses on the road this year (5 if KC knows the rules) and we have only one at home.

I know it sounds insane, but I think we pull it off. It will go down to the wire like last year's games, but this one goes in our favor. 30-24 Miami.

mercury22nathan wrote:

The three biggest keys I see in this game:

Miami’s LBers ability to cover TEs and receivers (both RB and WR motions) coming out of the backfield.  This has been a recurring problem and Baltimore showed just how easy it is to exploit.

Given that Howard is hurt, Miami’s secondary’s ability to communicate and stay on the same page.  Diggs and Davis are talented WRs and are going to get their targets and resultants catches, but eliminating the self-inflicted mistakes that allow wide-open plays that gash Miami for big yards and points is critical.

Tua’s ability to find other receiving targets when the Tyreek’s middle routs are clogged.  This is not to suggest Tyreek should be ignored, he’s a large and necessary part of the offense, but there are times when the defense (see Ravens and last year’s Niners and Chargers games) specifically aligns to take away the middle passing windows.  Tua has to be able to find other targets – TEs or check downs or other WRs on the outside – when those middle throws aren’t open.

I like those keys. To add to it:

--LBs in coverage: I don't see this improving. Jerome Baker might return, but even if he does I just don't see the Phins matching up well with the Bills' TEs and RBs (and WRs)...in fact, it seems like a huge mismatch and I'm not sure what can be done about it.

--DBs: I have hope here IF Fangio allows Ramsey to shadow Diggs. Even then, the rest of the secondary will have to contend with Davis (who is having an excellent season) and Shakir (a very dynamic speed demon). It's a tall order. Hopefully Holland gets back up to speed, because we need him to be at his best.

--Tua's targets: So much of this is going to come down to the OL. Robert Hunt may be back, and Eich certainly has more experience at center than he did in the last Bills game - and both of those are huge factors. The Bills usually beat the crap out of our OL - that can't happen again or it's game over. My hope is that we really ramp up the passes to TEs and backs - get the ball out quickly and pound the Bills on short passes as they try to take away Hill. Smythe has become a weapon - keep feeding him. And there's no reason why Achane should only get 5 targets this week (as he did last week) - he should become a priority for Tua in the passing game. Don't force deep passes to Hill - just take the underneath stuff and methodically move the chains and keep Allen on the sideline. I doubt Waddle returns for this one, but if he does he must step up as he did when Hill was out.

--The other big key on offense is penalties - all the false starts and delays are drive killers. The Dolphins need to get their shit together and stop shooting themselves in the foot.

--Also on offense: for the love of all that is holy, TAKE THE FADE OUT OF THE PLAYBOOK!!!! It hasn't worked with smaller players like Tyreek and Jeff Wilson, it hasn't worked with taller players like Ced Wilson and Julian Hill...it just doesn't work at all!! Our red zone offense sucks lately - one way to fix it is to stop running extremely low-percentage plays!!!

I kind of see this season summed up like Tyreek's house. Only this will be a dumpster fire. Buffalo 47-10. 

It's not about coaching, it's about the players. This team isn't built to win against physical teams.  I think this team without McD would be 6-11. McD schemes up a good offense until a team out physicals us. We have no way to respond to the physical game. It's about the players in the trenches. We will hang for the 1st quarter then the other teams physicality outweighs our speed.

From watching Hard Knocks I see a group that has a strong bond with chemistry and a tight knit group. Unfortunately they don't have the toughness and leave it all out there to win tough games. I'm starting to worry all athletes are getting that way. If you can laugh and dance on the sidelines you can wrap your F'n knee or ankle and gut out a big game.

JEGnj wrote:From watching Hard Knocks I see a group that has a strong bond with chemistry and a tight knit group. Unfortunately they don't have the toughness and leave it all out there to win tough games. I'm starting to worry all athletes are getting that way. If you can laugh and dance on the sidelines you can wrap your F'n knee or ankle and gut out a big game.

Yep, and they need to stop reading about how good they are too.

Looks like Waddle & Mostert did some Limited Work Today, Hunt will Start on Sunday now who do You Bench Cotton or Jones. Looks like Baker has a better chance of Playing than previously thought. More Offensive Starters we get back the Better so we can try to protect the D by Ball Control and scoring points probably will need 31 just to have a Chance.

Someone remind me who we should be rooting for to have the Bills eliminated. It’s Pittsburgh and Houston right? If those 2 win and Miami beats 'em, Buffalo is out I think. I don’t want to beat the Bills this weekend only to host them again next weekend- that could be a recipe for disaster.

Found it.

https://www.buffalobills.com/news/who-bills-fans-should-root-for-week-18-and-a-look-at-potential-playoff-scenarios

Need Jags to win too. Look at that, Titans could screw us again. It’s the Tannehill curse!!

Merc wrote:Need Jags to win too. Look at that, Titans could screw us again. It’s the Tannehill curse!!

Yep, he screwed us and he didn't even play in that game.

That Titans game is sure turning out to be a fine symbol for the Phins whole season it looks like.

Unless... the Phins manage to beat the Bills in Miami.

This is the Type of Game that Fangio is being Paid to come up with something to Help His Defense overcome the Injuries and Win this Game.

Is it wrong for me to wish Tua had a little more CJ Stroud in his game?

mercury22nathan wrote:Is it wrong for me to wish Tua had a little more CJ Stroud in his game?

Stroud just always seems to stay calm, cool and collected regardless of the situation, and regardless of how many receivers are on the inactive list for his team. That kid has an amazing future ahead of him. I thought he'd be another OSU QB bust, but he's been nothing short of fantastic. Give him a defense, and that Texans team is going to be a perennial contender.

Well, less than 9 hours till kickoff. We need a miracle.

As Kev said, Fangio better come up with a plan to control Josh Allen. Allen has had a Hall of Fame career against the Dolphins...he absolutely owns us and embarrasses us every single time we face him. He actually owns Fangio too, if you look at past performance. So it's a tall order. But that's why Fangio is getting the big bucks - he needs to figure it out.

I'm not confident at all, but all we can do is hope for the best. GO PHINS!!!

The Bomb that the Texans threw on there First Play was a Great Design with the TE coming across the Middle and taking the safety with him leaving a footrace between Collins and the DB. Wonder if We could get Hill on the same Play with Smythe coming across the Middle.

finskev wrote:The Bomb that the Texans threw on there First Play was a Great Design with the TE coming across the Middle and taking the safety with him leaving a footrace between Collins and the DB. Wonder if We could get Hill on the same Play with Smythe coming across the Middle.

I was thinking the same thing. Great way to come out firing and take an early lead.

Jags completely choking against the Titans, so it looks like the Bills will be in the playoffs and tonight's game will just be for the East and the #2 seed.

If the Jags do lose and we win, we'll be hosting the Bills again next week!

I could see a scenario if we get curb stomped by the Bills and we play the Bills again we come out fired up and they come out unprepared and overconfident. That is the only good I can see in a loss. The Titans game was the downturn in our season. We came out over confident. Had we won against the Titans this game wouldn't be as big a deal.

I want the #2 and home field at least 2 games.

JEGnj wrote:I want the #2 and home field at least 2 games.

Yep. Just win tonight, win the division, I'll take my chances with a home game and the chance to get Mostert, Waddle and Howard back next week.

One thing making me somewhat confident: absolutely no one in media anywhere seems to think we can win. Is there anything that the talking heads have all been in unison about that wasn't wrong in the last few years?

Waddle and Mostert officially out; Hunt and Baker officially active.

Interesting note: DB Ethan Bonner was called up from the PS, but is inactive. Could that mean a Cam Smith sighting on defense tonight???

I'm going to start a game thread now, so we can continue there.

Terrible pass by Tua. I still have my doubts. Passes like that move him way down my list.

Other than a few boneheaded plays this game is going good.